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Post by mercian on May 4, 2022 22:21:24 GMT
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that tomorrow will be much better for Labour than most seem to think. There seems to be a tide running at the moment. I'll stick my neck out too! I live in a true blue area and there is much less hostility to Labour on the doorstep than in recent years. I think there will be a low turnout and some major Labour gains. I think the Greens will do reasonably well but I don't see much empirical evidence of a Lib.Dem revival....but each constituency is different. That's because there is nothing to be hostile to. Does anyone outside Labour Party insiders know whether they have any policies? For those who take national politics into account when voting in the locals, the choice is between the Tories and nothing. It's true that nothing might be preferable to some, but they will probably stay at home. |
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2022 22:38:56 GMT
I've just read an article in the Guardian by a Larry Elliott. Here's a quote:
"Frankly, if Labour can’t smash the ball into the net now, then there is really only one question to ask: when on earth is it likely to do so?"
So sometimes even the Guardian says sensible things (i.e. they agree with me).😁
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Post by robbiealive on May 4, 2022 22:44:08 GMT
robbiealive Still here mate. I'm not posting much because as per my last, I don't want to intrude on private grief. I suppose I could post my opinion of Corbyn, but that would only succeed in uniting you lot into a screaming mob so I won't bother.  I'll try to hide my disappointment. As yr thoughts & opinions seem entirely disconnected ones I have no idea what yr politics are. |
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Post by guymonde on May 4, 2022 22:44:17 GMT
I thought they'd put Carfrew out on loan 'til the end of the season. Oh! That's next week. Carfew's refusing to turn out as the manager insists the only position for him is playing as an ordo-Libero |
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2022 22:50:26 GMT
robbiealive Still here mate. I'm not posting much because as per my last, I don't want to intrude on private grief. I suppose I could post my opinion of Corbyn, but that would only succeed in uniting you lot into a screaming mob so I won't bother. I'll try to hide my disappointment. As yr thoughts & opinions seem entirely disconnected ones I have no idea what yr politics are. It's called free-thinking. Unlike most folks here I'm not blindly loyal to any party. |
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Post by jimjam on May 4, 2022 22:56:41 GMT
From Savanta, apologies if already posted, more polldurums?
New Westminster Voting Intention🚨
📈Labour's third consecutive 6pt lead
🌳Con 35 (+1)
🌹Lab 41 (+1)
🔶LD 9 (-2)
🎗️SNP 4 (=)
🌍Green 4 (+1)
⬜️Other 7 (=)
2,236 UK adults, 29 April - 1 May
(chg from 22-24 April)
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Post by robbiealive on May 4, 2022 23:03:31 GMT
I'll try to hide my disappointment. As yr thoughts & opinions seem entirely disconnected ones I have no idea what yr politics are. It's called free-thinking. Unlike most folks here I'm not blindly loyal to any party. Well certainly no would pay for yr thoughts. I was momentarily stunned by yr use of a hyphen: such a rarity on this site. After much thought I have decided the hyphen is redundant & what was really needed were quotation marks as you were giving the expression a particular emphasis as a term of art. I might come back to you on this one. |
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Post by mercian on May 4, 2022 23:13:01 GMT
robbiealiveI'm not sure why you're being so hostile, and you missed the boat anyway. I did (by request) give my opinion of Corbyn and others.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 4, 2022 23:20:15 GMT
More from the ComRes Full Scottish poll comresglobal.com/polls/scottish-political-tracker-may-2022/The Greens, on 14%, equal their best vote share in a Savanta ComRes poll, while the Liberal Democrats are up two points since March to 10%.
The Conservative's poor performance in this poll is compounded by drops in favourability for its key figures. The Prime Minister's favourability rating drops seven points to -58 - although this should be placed in teh context of an 11-point rise in March's poll - while Rishi Sunak's rating drops a significant 26 points to -48. Douglas Ross' rating drops a more modest two points to -25.
Nicola Sturgeon remains the only leader with a positive favourability rating, on +13, unchanged from March.
Elsewhere in the poll, Savanta ComRes' first in Scotland since the Prime Minister and Chancellor received fixed penalty notices for breaching lockdown regulations, three quarters (72%) say the PM should resign, while three in five (62%) say the same of the Chancellor. However, just a quarter (23%) say Nicola Sturgeon should resign after being spoken to by police over her own rule-breaking.
And on independence, while overall voting intentions have barely shifted since the last poll, a majority of voters express doubts over whether the SNP’s planned timetable for a referendum to be held in 2023 would actually happen.
In total, half (53%) say it is “unlikely” a referendum will be held by the end of next year, while two in five (39%) say it is “likely”.
Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes says,
"Labour’s large lead over the Conservatives in second place of both the constituency and list Holyrood VIs are certainly eye-catching, but as with almost everything related to Labour at the moment, it feels like a lead more to do with the fortunes of the Conservatives than anything Labour are doing especially well.
"The Conservative’s Westminster fortunes have taken a battering since Partygate, but it appears that the cost of living crisis has turned Scottish voters away from the party, and with there unlikely to be any remedy to many voters’ concerns about the affordability of basic items needed to live on the horizon, it’s possible things could get worse for the Conservatives before they get better – including on Thursday in the local elections." |
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Post by eor on May 4, 2022 23:50:36 GMT
In fairness, I should explain why I said that. Roe v Wade which legalised abortion at a federal level was based on the 14th amendment to the constitution. The decision was based on the understanding that women, as human beings and citizens, should be allowed control over their own bodies. The revised opinion means that in many states are soon as they become pregnant they will merely be regarded as fetus incubators, (and in some states this will be so even if carrying the child risks their life or it is the product of rape or incest). Alito, in his judgement, makes reference to this being 'moral' case, letting the cat out of the bag that the 5 ultra-right wing members of the court (all of whom were specifically selected for their known anti-abortion views) are actually taking a political/religious decision despite 98 pages of covering guff. Hence the 3 Democrat judges will dissent and I wouldn't be surprised if Roberts, the moderate Republican, comes up with a third view. Rulings based the 14th amendment are also the basis for gay marriage, the legality of same sex relations, interracial marriage, women's access to contraception and the like. Following Alito's logic all of that should now be decided at state level and there are many states that would happily ban the lot. Civil Rights is not based on the 14th amendment, so that is a little different, but many Republican states have been successfully eating away at the right of minorities to vote for years and will be emboldened to continue. Incidentally, I note that Danny, in his usual contrarian way, has posted several times that the court got this right. He may care to consider that as a gay man the same people who are keen to deny the humanity of pregnant women would be equally keen to criminalise him too. This argument has been put forward in the US by Democrats and respected pundits so very worrying. It is indeed being put forward (and by the Republican right as well as Democrats), but I'm not sure how plausible it is. In the draft ruling that sparked all this, Alito goes out of his way to define in very clear terms why abortion stands separate and distinct from other 14th Amendment rights, and indeed lists the ones that pjw1961 cites: "The abortion right is also critically different from any other right that this Court has held to fall within the Fourteenth Amendment's protection of “liberty.” Roe's defenders characterize the abortion right as similar to the rights recognized in past decisions involving matters such as intimate sexual relations, contraception, and marriage, but abortion is fundamentally different, as both Roe and Casey acknowledged, because it destroys what those decisions called “fetal life” and what the law now before us describes as an “unborn human being" "www.documentcloud.org/documents/21835435-scotus-initial-draftI'm not a lawyer, but I can't see how a Ruling that overturns Roe whilst explicitly focusing on its incomparability to other 14th Amendment rights could be used as the basis to argue that those other rights must be similarly invalid. Indeed I suspect that's why this language has been included, to specifically make clear that this is not a blanket repudiation of 14th Amendment protections. I do agree that that's what many on the Republican right would hope it to be, and they have a vested interest in exaggerating this threat. It's primary season in the US, and this will help to skew GOP primary turnout towards such candidates who want to portray themselves as leading some kind of cultural counter-revolution. But likewise it's in the Dems' interests to amplify the extent of the threat too - the more extreme the candidates the Republicans nominate now, the better the chances for the Democrats of retaining or even picking up some of the seats they'll need if they want a decent shot at holding either chamber of Congress in November. Also just from the reality of US campaign finance - the more noise and emotion that's generated around an issue, the more money pours in in campaign donations. Don't get me wrong - I'm not denying there's a huge amount of genuine anger and outrage amongst Democratic politicians about this leaked draft and what it would mean for women's rights in many states. I'm just saying there are also strong electoral incentives to the perception of the threat being exaggerated into something even more drastic. |
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Post by moby on May 5, 2022 4:43:58 GMT
I know we have been through this many times before. I watched the "7 out of 10 comment." Corbyn sat there looking inert, like a desiccated Prof of Sociology discussing an abstruse theory. If that precious hand-wringing was his (and your!) idea of effective campaigning in a YES NO vote, no wonder we lost. He was hopeless and hapless on that occasion. Anyway, he was never committed to to the EU & failed to represent Labour voters who were daft enough to select him: & the riff he voted BREXIT had a ring of truth. Corbyn's decision to not only want to put distance between himself and Europe, but also wanting the UK to pull out of NATO, and desire to see NATO disbanded, have put him firmly on the wrong side of history. It's also a part of the paradox of Hard Left Gerontocracy, too many ideological-purity chasing young activists mistake 'Charismatic Figures with Decades of History' as being good choices as leaders. Putting all of Corbyn's personal politics aside, he was a bad manager. The kind who says he 'has an open door policy' and always welcomes 'productive discussions', then defers decision making to the clique of middle management that supports him. The Corbyn and Sanders campaigns were twins, both with Movements that projected ideals onto their leader that were not backed up by their actions, and covered for any of their leader's foibles by dismissing them as attacks on the solidarity of the movement. In particular I am offended by those who want to revise the history of the Anti-Semitism issue, to make it solely that Corbyn himself had never said anything anti-semetic, and thus "all a lie". Ignoring that the issue was Corbyn declining to discipline members of his supporter movement that had engaged in anti-semitism, his counter-attacks on the process of investigating the issue, and his interventions in attempting to dismiss the issue as 'fabricated attacks' on himself. The Corbyn apologists constantly obfuscate that it was his mismanagement and mishandling of the issue that magnified and worsened it. This paragraph totally spoke for me. He was an awful choice as leader, weak and totally in thrall to the ideologues around him. I wondered why I still get drawn in to the Corbyn debate. It was two things...seeing all the recent anti Starmer hate on social media from the Corbynites still mourning his loss and their constant 'Keith' refrain about Starmers lack of charisma and his own idiotic comments on NATO. This reminded me that with him in charge of the country we'd have been in a constant ideological battle both within the party and without. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 5, 2022 5:36:17 GMT
crossbat11I agree about the wondrous spectacle of football. I can still vividly remember Dick Edwards and George Curtis simultaneously shoulder charging Bobby Charlton from each side. To his credit, he didn't roll around in simulated agony but got up and got on with it. He was a bit subdued afterwards though. 😄 Well, well, well. Dick Edwards and George Curtis; a couple of old Villa stalwarts from Villa's days in the Second and Third Divisions in the late 60s and early 70s. Edwards bought from Mansfield Town and Curtis from nearby Coventry City. Can't ever remember them playing together for the Villa though. I think Dick had departed before George came and I'm pretty sure neither played in a Villa shirt against Charlton's Man Utd. We did play them in an epic League Cup semi final in 1970, but both players had departed the club by then. You're not thinking of the legendary Fred Turnbull, are you?? Off to watch some cricket at New Road today. A decent forecast too. No local elections in my area today so I'm sitting them out from a campaigning point of view. No doorstep anecdotes to share, I'm afraid and, alas, no Labour votes for Mrs H and I to cast/waste in this sea of Tory blue that surrounds us! |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 5, 2022 6:32:35 GMT
I'll try to hide my disappointment. As yr thoughts & opinions seem entirely disconnected ones I have no idea what yr politics are. It's called free-thinking. Unlike most folks here I'm not blindly loyal to any party. Give yourself a pat on the back. Some might suspect that you're more confined than you believe you are. Those you deride do at least have values and concern for their fellows. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,408
Member is Online
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Post by neilj on May 5, 2022 6:58:49 GMT
I suspect this will put more pressure on Johnson to do a U turn on a windfall tax
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 6:59:08 GMT
jayblanc/ moby - I also agree. Corbyn had some good points, and in broad terms, outwith foreign policy, I agreed with much of his policy direction, but he was an awful manager and a very poor leader, in practical terms. I would also agree that sections of the party refused to be led by him, and made life very difficult, but ultimately I suspect that there was space for a more left leaning leader for Labour at that time - but just a better one than Corbyn.
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 7:04:43 GMT
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2022 7:08:14 GMT
I think I'm going to go be cautious and go with modest gains for Labour approx 200, but overall a bit of a mixed bag for everyone. Tories will be down but only by appox 300 - will likely hold Labour off in a couple of those 'ones to watch' councils such as Wandsworth/Worthing/Southampton etc. Labour wont make big gains in the North - but will basically hold their ground (actually an improvement on '19 given these seats were last contended in '18 etc). Greens will do well in areas like London - LD's will make modest gains as well but no dramatic surge.
SNP will come out top in Scotland by quite a margin - but the 'story' will be Labour coming second. Wales - PC gains but Labour maintain position as main party. NI - will have to go with SF coming first.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 7:22:54 GMT
This paragraph totally spoke for me. He was an awful choice as leader, weak and totally in thrall to the ideologues around him. I wondered why I still get drawn in to the Corbyn debate. It was two things...seeing all the recent anti Starmer hate on social media from the Corbynites still mourning his loss and their constant 'Keith' refrain about Starmers lack of charisma and his own idiotic comments on NATO. This reminded me that with him in charge of the country we'd have been in a constant ideological battle both within the party and without. I think it's fair to say Corbyn is/was a limited politician with a lot of baggage. What I liked was his policies, state ownership of utilities, free university, possible forgiveness of student debt, progressive taxation, broadband as a public resource etc Shame to lose the policies with the man. And the demonisation all those antisemite lies and the vile revisionism that says Brexit was his fault (especially coming from Lib Dems!) - that's the stuff makes my blood boil. |
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2022 7:24:54 GMT
jayblanc / moby - I also agree. Corbyn had some good points, and in broad terms, outwith foreign policy, I agreed with much of his policy direction, but he was an awful manager and a very poor leader, in practical terms. I would also agree that sections of the party refused to be led by him, and made life very difficult, but ultimately I suspect that there was space for a more left leaning leader for Labour at that time - but just a better one than Corbyn. I fear when Labour do win again they will be centrists and that will be blowing their last chance. I'll be off to the Greens with the younger generations. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2022 7:24:59 GMT
jayblanc / moby - I also agree. Corbyn had some good points, and in broad terms, outwith foreign policy, I agreed with much of his policy direction, but he was an awful manager and a very poor leader, in practical terms. I would also agree that sections of the party refused to be led by him, and made life very difficult, but ultimately I suspect that there was space for a more left leaning leader for Labour at that time - but just a better one than Corbyn.
I think historians will see Corbyn very much as a reflection of the times, with voters moving away from established/mainstream parties and leaders and the appeal of more populist figures from the relative polls of the political spectrum. |
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Post by alec on May 5, 2022 7:30:35 GMT
From Eric Feigl-Ding -
"US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just tested positive for #COVID19. He recently attended the @whca
dinner event with 2600+ people, where reporters from many media outlets have also now tested positive."
Utterly stupid.
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Post by hireton on May 5, 2022 7:34:16 GMT
eor"Indeed I suspect that's why this language has been included, to specifically make clear that this is not a blanket repudiation of 14th Amendment protections. " Well, he would say that wouldn't he. Meanwhile, Christian extremistsin the USA are gearing up to start challenging LGBT rights knowing that they have their place men and women on the Court.
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Post by EmCat on May 5, 2022 7:37:18 GMT
there is much less hostility to Labour on the doorstep than in recent years. That's because there is nothing to be hostile to. Does anyone outside Labour Party insiders know whether they have any policies? For those who take national politics into account when voting in the locals, the choice is between the Tories and nothing. It's true that nothing might be preferable to some, but they will probably stay at home. Ah, but that's the point. Pretty much everyone on this site (whether a poster or just a reader), cares to some degree whether political parties have any substance to their rhetoric. But most people who only 'do' politics when it comes to elections, will vote based more upon "Which party annoyed me recently? Right I won't vote for them" (with a few in the "Can't be bothered reading all the way down the list. I'll vote for the one at the top" and "Ooh, I like that name. I'll vote for them." camps too). |
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Post by shevii on May 5, 2022 8:07:31 GMT
I think I'm going to go be cautious and go with modest gains for Labour approx 200, but overall a bit of a mixed bag for everyone. Tories will be down but only by appox 300 - will likely hold Labour off in a couple of those 'ones to watch' councils such as Wandsworth/Worthing/Southampton etc. Labour wont make big gains in the North - but will basically hold their ground (actually an improvement on '19 given these seats were last contended in '18 etc). Greens will do well in areas like London - LD's will make modest gains as well but no dramatic surge.
SNP will come out top in Scotland by quite a margin - but the 'story' will be Labour coming second. Wales - PC gains but Labour maintain position as main party. NI - will have to go with SF coming first. I honestly have no idea what to expect today. Turnout is going to decide it with fine margins based on whether Tory voters want to punish their party or not and whether Lab voters can be bothered. Part of me feels like it will be an all or nothing- ie 400 Labour gains or very few. That Yougov/Sky poll is interesting and mostly they're not calling things very definitely at all. Bit sceptical about sample size as well- not sure that tables have been issued but if they have a sample of 5,000 then at 30% turnout there's not many votes per the councils they sampled and we know the problems Ashcroft had doing constituency polling in 2015. Also seems a bit odd to me that the North is likely to be less good for Labour given all those lent votes to the Tories for brexit so those voters less in the Tory camp than the remaining Tories in places like London who presumably have a strong affiliation with Tory and probably voted Tory most of their lives. This feels like an important election simply because the Future of Johnson hangs in the balance but if that Britain Elects projection is accurate then he survives for a bit longer. |
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Post by t7g4 on May 5, 2022 8:24:51 GMT
I expect the SNP to come out on top in Scotland by some margin (demand for a new referendum but not competent local government) but look out for Glasgow. Glasgow has has huge problems with bins and ironically this is what the local elections are about. I think Labour may regain Glasgow which will be great for their recovery in Scotland.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 5, 2022 8:26:13 GMT
This paragraph totally spoke for me. He was an awful choice as leader, weak and totally in thrall to the ideologues around him. I wondered why I still get drawn in to the Corbyn debate. It was two things...seeing all the recent anti Starmer hate on social media from the Corbynites still mourning his loss and their constant 'Keith' refrain about Starmers lack of charisma and his own idiotic comments on NATO. This reminded me that with him in charge of the country we'd have been in a constant ideological battle both within the party and without. I think it's fair to say Corbyn is/was a limited politician with a lot of baggage. What I liked was his policies, state ownership of utilities, free university, possible forgiveness of student debt, progressive taxation, broadband as a public resource etc Shame to lose the policies with the man. And the demonisation all those antisemite lies and the vile revisionism that says Brexit was his fault (especially coming from Lib Dems!) - that's the stuff makes my blood boil. Indeed. It is relatively rare to see the right of the party discuss the policies, esp. the economic ones. They might give some brief, cursory non-specific indication of support for Corbyn’s policies, before launching into a load of attacks on the man, which might be of a more personal nature. For all they might say they campaigned on the doorstep, it is hard to see how they could be much use if the only arguments they seem to have worked out in any detail are negatives about Corbyn. (They quite often don’t seem that up to speed on Starmer’s policies either tbh). |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 5, 2022 8:35:42 GMT
Anecdote alert; bumped into a friend doing the school drop off this morning. She is far from being politically disengaged, but when I asked if she was going to vote (our school is a polling station) she replied 'Oh I forgot there were elections today'.
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Post by jimjam on May 5, 2022 8:36:29 GMT
Shevii,
The rationale is that some traditional Tory voters where never keen on Johnson (Polls showed this before the GE) but stuck with them in 2019 as a Corbyn-Led Labour Party was an anathema to them.
The first time Tories (many ex Labour even if via WV, UKIP or BXP) where more enthusiastic for him and having bought Johnson are more reluctant to sell.
I am not sure this is accurate as GE polling of Tory 2019 voters in seats they gained are moving in similar proportions to nationally.
I think this is pure arithmetic and that wavering 'new' Tories did not vote for them in 2018 so not voting for them now impacts less on the aggregate votes they receive.
Those traditional Tories who voted for them in 2018 when May was leader but won't now, either going to another party or abstaining, are lost votes from the aggregate total.
Whilst there will most likely be less seats and councils change hands therefore in the areas the Tories gained MPs in 2019, I believe the vote share projections won't be significantly dissimilar in terms of swing from 2019.
What I can't judge is if areas where the LDs offer a protest home will see a bigger swing away from the Tories.
The key for the LDs is that they can identify where to focus their efforts in the run up to a GE.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 5, 2022 9:25:26 GMT
alec Agreed David Lammy and Clive Lewis come to mind immediately
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Post by moby on May 5, 2022 9:25:57 GMT
Went to vote this morning in my local village since moving back to rural Wales....suprised to find only three candidates, a tory, an Independent and Plaid.....no Labour candidate!
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