19-Nov-2021 : CON 36 / LAB 34 / GREEN 10 / LIBDEM 7

[eor]

Nov 21, 2021 20:37:11 GMT baggy07 said:

I have been thinking about the recent polls and feel there are a couple of elements that have not been mentioned. The Green Party are between 6% and 10%, many of them I believe are
ex labour voters who were towards the left of the Party, like myself and 4 other people I know I am now a Green Party supporter, I believe Starmers attacks on the Left of the party may bring increases of 4 to 6% from the Centre Right, but are losing the equivalent to the left ie when Corbyn was leader the Greens were at 2%.Indeed Corbyn had this level of support in 2016. I have an extreme level of dislike and mistrust of Keir Starmer that I believe can only be fixed in allowing Corbyn being allowed back into the PLP and an inclusion of a couple of MPs from the Left wing of the Party.
If this does not happen, culturally I believe the Conservative vote cannot get below 36%, and Starmers vote cannot get above 36% in an election. I could even vote for another Labour Leader of the Right that tried to Unite the Party and be inclusive of people of the Left.

Baggy,

Personally I think you're right to raise the concern. We are rightly wary of anecdotal claims on a polling forum, but I do seem to keep bumping into people who'd regard themselves as natural Green supporters that voted Labour under Corbyn and say things like "I don't know what Starmer even believes in?". I'm sure there will inevitably be *some* squeeze on the Green vote in England come a GE, particularly of course for those supporters in seats that may not even have a Green candidate. But whether Green supporters will simply stay home, or go out and vote tactically for Starmer's Labour party in anything like the kind of numbers they were prepared to vote for Corbyn's Labour party... I have a lot of doubt there. 

[eor]

Nov 21, 2021 22:00:24 GMT oldnat said:

Nov 21, 2021 16:41:52 GMT jib said:

For the UK, perhaps the most interesting dynamic is the divergence between England and its proximate neighbours. How is that to be managed? By adopting attitudes and creating structures that allow divergence, or maximising central control from Westminster?

There are both similarities and differences between the Llafur/Plaid deak and the SNP/SGP one - as one would expect being different polities with different priorities and existing arrangements, so a comparison can be illuminating -

Welsh / Scots

Increasing the number of Members of the Senedd / Independence
Devolving broadcasting and communication powers / Devolving broadcasting and communication powers
Introducing local tourism taxes / Under discussion - again!
Cap on second and holiday home numbers / LAs to licence short term let properties by April 2022
Rent controls to make properties affordable for locals / Enhancing tenants rights and delivering 110,000 affordable homes by 2032
Reforming housing law to end homelessness / Further extension of "Housing First"
Creating an NHS style free-at-point-of-need National Care Service / Planned to be operational in 2026
Plans to change council tax / Plans to change council tax
Free school meals for Primary School children / Already in place
------- / Energy reduction policies etc

I think as a Welsh person living in England there's a couple of points I'd make to that. 

Firstly that the sentiment in Wales has long been some way behind that in Scotland. The 1997 vote to even have an Assembly in Cardiff was won by about 0.5%, whilst the somewhat analogous vote in Scotland carried by a margin of around 3:1. And outside of some rather excitably reported polls that had hypothetical elements relating to Brexit, I don't believe there's yet been a poll suggesting a vote on Welsh independence would do better than a defeat of around 30+ points. So I think there's a sense of needing to do a lot more groundwork in Wales before Independence starts being seriously discussed. 

Secondly there's long been a very specific aspect to the questions of tourism, holiday homes and second homes in Wales that goes beyond what we see in concerns in many parts of England about local people being priced out of the area they grew up in. In some key areas there's a definite language element too - the idea that having English people (or English-speaking Welsh people from affluent suburbs of Cardiff and Swansea) buying holiday/second homes in more scenic areas has a substantial diluting effect on the sustainability of the Welsh language in those areas. 

So not just the feeling that "I grew up here, I have a right to live here", but also "I'll be forced to move to somewhere that doesn't speak my language, while people who don't speak it move into my community". 

I appreciate your comparison was to Scotland rather than England, but as I don't know anything about the realities of intra-UK migration in Scotland I thought it might help to frame my understanding of the Welsh picture against the English one that's generally much better covered by our national media :-) 

[neilj]

Re Green/Labour switching it seems clear to me looking at the polls there is a fluidity between Labour and Green. When Labour goes up the Greens tend to go down and vice versa. That shows to me those voters are prepared to switch and come an election many will do.

I think people should not under estimate the ABT vote by many on the left and those who do not like Johnson and this current Government. Yes they have supporters who will always vote Johnson/Tory, but a large number who really do not like them.

[steamdrivenandy]

Anecdote Warning

We moved house just over a year ago and I remember chatting to a couple of neighbours just after we moved in and them expressing views along the lines of 'Boris had better sort things out quick'. It was said with a form of affection and from that I sort of understood they'd voted for his party at 2019 and were relying on him to meet their expectations. It also laid out boundaries for me, unless I wanted to upset them with injudicious remarks.

Chatting to them the other day, they are totally disillusioned and feel nothing has been 'sorted out' and they were duped into voting Tory, all affection gone.

They can't be the only ones.

[steve]

Eor
While you may be correct about a Green vote at the next election supporters of the green manifesto do feel common cause with other centre left parties and are united in not wanting a Tory government.
There's a difference from UKIP which was a one trick xenophobic pony.
While there was clearly a cross over with the Tories as they embraced the stupidity and told their pre election boosterist fairy tale of levelling up to ensure the ex ukip/ Brexit party vote the Tories had to adapt to get this support led by their dissembling chief.
The Labour and particularly lib dems don't have to change policies or lie about them to attract Green voters in seats outwith of Brighton.
The next election may see a higher vote for the greens but like UKIP it won't transfer into seats and green voters are probably more concerned that their wasted vote under fptp doesn't aid the conservatives.

[shevii]

Nov 22, 2021 6:46:12 GMT neilj said:

Re Green/Labour switching it seems clear to me looking at the polls there is a fluidity between Labour and Green. When Labour goes up the Greens tend to go down and vice versa. 

I can't quite see this in the polling.  Just a random scan down the totals on Wiki for 2021 doesn't suggest this is entirely accurate.  The last Labour surge back in January Green were polling at 6-7% on Yougov and Lab were around 40%.  Then as Tories got their lead back and Labour were dropping on Yougov to 33-34 the Greens were unchanged if not a little bit lower.  Currently Greens are 9-10 on Yougov and Lab at around 35 which would prove your point more (compared to January) but it's not consistent enough to be anywhere near exact. 

It's easier with Yougov and R&W because of the more frequent polls but not obviously different with the other companies but then they show a lower Green vote anyway so harder to see when it keeps floating around 4-5%.  Do you mean over a longer period of time than this year?

You're right about the ABT potentials in the same way that 2017 saw a significant ABT vote despite Corbyn having bad ratings so could be the next election have an ABT vote despite Starmer having bad ratings.  But voters still need a strong reason to be ABT- Corbyn 2019 liberals didn't have a strong enough reason and will Green/Left have a strong enough reason at the next election?

As @ EOR said about the UKIP vote things don't change until they do!

[neilj]

Looking at the most recent polls I disagree and think there is a fluidity within Green and Labour voters
Panel base - Labour 39% Green 6%
You Gov -    Labour 34% Green 10%
RandW        Labour 37% Green 5%
Survation     Labour 37% Green 4%
Savanta         Labour 40% Green 5%
Opinium        Labour 37% Green 7%
You Gov         Labour 35% Green 10%

I believe Yougov prompt for Green, when that does not happen with some other pollsters, it appears many Green voters are okay with putting Labour as their choice

As to 'But voters still need a strong reason to be ABT- Corbyn 2019 liberals didn't have a strong enough reason and will Green/Left have a strong enough reason at the next election?' I think the reason for the Labour poor performance in 2019 has been discussed many times, many, rightly or wrongly, just could not bring themselves to vote for a Corbyn led Government. The point of the ABT vote is that many people are prepared to hold their noses to dislodge the Conservatives provided they do not need to compromise too far. It is not so much as voting for something as against the tories

[Deleted]

Alec @" please don't misinterpret my comments as suggesting we are bound to rejoin"

Fair enough.

I agree that-like all international trade agreements, detailed terms may alter in our TA with EU.

Like all other governments involved in trade relationships with other countries , UK future Parliaments  will be reviewing the cost/.benefit of access & regulatory alignment  over time. 

[shevii]

@ NeilJ

I see what you mean now. But this is a function of the weighting between companies rather than actual movements of voters. If it is true that Yougov don't do anything with don't knows then that's what I was saying about, as the don't knows make up their minds the Green percentage vote falls naturally, unless there are potential Green voters in the don't knows which I don't think there are.

You make a good point about the prompting but I don't know how people's minds work to need a prompt on the main question in order to register a Green VI. Maybe they think they are only going to be given a choice on the first question? If they are that flaky as to not put down "some other party" then as you say they may vote Labour when push comes to shove.

Some of this debate reminds me of 2015 a little bit- it seemed inconceivable from the polling that Labour would not get 35% and not form a minority government at least but of course they didn't.

[Deleted]

(E+W) Greens in GE'24. Comparison to UKIP'15 v UKIP'17?

I've made the comparison before on UKPR but will repost some polling:

Five things YouGov polling reveals about Green Party members: yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/20/five-things-yougov-polling-reveals-about-green-par

of note: "Green members would be happy to enter a coalition with Labour, but would also be pleased with a Labour majority" 

and What do Britons make of the Greens?: yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/10/22/what-do-britons-make-greens

Which covers who might vote Green (ie young, 'middle class', LAB/LDEM'19 and/or Remain'16 and 'Environment' as a very important issue) 

IMO then (as per first poll link) LAB can win a lot of Green defectors back (see GE'19 x-breaks in current VI which confirms poll link #2) but it will depend on three factors:
1/ Push factor: How powerful the ABCON vote is to 'push' voters to vote tactically to get the best placed ABCON candidate elected in specific seats  
2/ Pull factor: How close LAB (or LDEM) are to offering the policies Green voters want to see (and as per CMJ's comments it's not 'just' the environment BUT as per the 2nd poll link then that is largely how many voters currently see them and it is their USP, see also R&W polling[1]).
3/ Voting 'for' Green (internal): How popular Green candidate and policies are in their own right (and on UKPR I commented on not having policies that are too extreme with polling evidence to substantiate that opinion)

So both Boris-CON and Starmer-LAB(+Davey-LDEM) can affect/effect the outcome as well as Greens themselves of course. 

No predictions given the future is uncertain and will depend on several factors between now and GE'24.

PS RUK into GE'24? I posted the immigration polling and comments yesterday. RUK can certainly split off enough CON VI to ensure CON lose a lot more seats than they might. In the VI x-breaks then it is clear than RUK VI is coming mostly from CON'19 but will RUK be UKIP'15 or BXP'19 into GE'24? Again.. the future is uncertain! No Fate. 

[1] Either CON or LAB come highest on most issues but: A quarter (25%) most trust the Greens to protect the environment

[neilj]

@shevvi
I think the difference is now that Cameron did not have the negative reactions  that Johnson has triggered in the last 18 months or so, many  people in the middle felt okay to vote for him. It reminds me of the US election, Trump in 2016 won, not in at least part due to a lot did not like Clinton (perhaps unfairly). In 2019 the dislike of Trump had grown and although Biden was not a great or inspirational candidate, most people were okay with him. They felt safe voting for him to get rid of Trump. I suspect there will be a similar situation come the next election in the UK with Starmer and Johnson

Don't get me wrong, I do not think Starmer, like Biden, is a good leader, but like Biden I do not think people will be frightened to vote Labour under him. 

Having said all that I think at the current time the most likely outcome is a hung Parliament, but apart from the DUP I don't believe the Conservatives have any one who would go into any sort of coalition with them. Lastly the next election is likely to be 2 1/2 years away and a lot can happen in that time, not least some actual concrete policies from Labour  plus the economy of course 

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2021 9:08:39 GMT shevii said:

I bang on about the 'loyalty' x-breaks in polling as they also show the 'flow' from last GE to current VI. From latest YG that showed Greens on 10%

Green VI: 13% of LAB'19, 12% of LDEM'19 but only 3% of CON'19 (plus Green'19 and some DNV'19 that is not shown)

Better perhaps to look at 'Loyalty' in the 'Vote in 2019 GE' columns, using the lower table as that shows DKs

LAB'19 x-break:
LAB: 65%
DK: 14%
Green: 11%

For CON'19 x-break:
CON: 61%
DK: 17%
RUK: 7%

As per your recent comments then LDEM have very high 'churn' but we don't know if that is mostly 'tactical voting' related[1] or not (see previous post which can be extended to cover the other ABCON party: LDEM). In 20ish English seats they are the best placed ABCON (+5 seats in Scotland where they are best placed ABSNP). 

docs.cdn.yougov.com/g8dunbfqqh/TheTimes_VI_211118_W.pdf

[1] Unwinding of previous tactical voting between elections perhaps but unclear the extent to which in a new GE we'd see more or less tactical voting than previously. In Scotland the LDEM vote is very 'lumpy' and has it moved that way in England as well. LDEM could win more seats with a lower % if the vote becomes even more 'lumpy' (ie even more tactical) or possibly win less if they become an irrelevance with no USP and Boris-CON don't 'encourage' the push factor of 'best placed' ABCON.

[wb61]

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/nov/21/boris-johnson-conservatives-red-wall-seats-different-worlds

I don't know if anyone has picked up on this from the Observer yesterday? But to my mind it emphasises the uncertainties of predicting the next general election outcome on polls alone, it may be why Labour's policy offering will play a greater role than the governments current failings in deciding the outcome, Passtherockplease use to point out that Labour had this problem with his Bristol Walsall examples, if both parties have the same problem, first past the post results could depend, dare I say it, on triangulation if the current approach is followed by both parties. Whereas, IMO, the party that offers a coherent ideological direction, clearly changing the status quo (as Thatcher [much to my distress] did in 1979) will have a greater chance. The "green Industrial revolution" backed by a coherent social organisation policies in support (whether from left or right) offers the current best opportunity to create such an ideological platform, again IMO, although a week is a long time in politics and something new might come along to deal with that. I just wonder who the thinkers are, either in the Labour or Conservative parties, that would emulate the Keith Joseph type in the 1970's Conservatives that led to Thatcher becoming PM. At present I have no idea that whether there is any such individual in Parliament, if there is I have not seen them!

By the way on a change of Conservative leadership: an outside bet would be Stephen Barclay, who at least presents as a grown up.

[peterbell]

Just caught the back end of PMs presentation to the CBI up in our part of the woods. Absolutely horrendous, Sky describing it as worse than May's presentation to the Tory conference. The man is either ill or has completely lost it or possibly both. The many negative comments on here from RoCs since the blog was started are surely only going to increase after this episode. Can't see him lasting more than 6 months.

[neilj]

Nov 22, 2021 10:38:29 GMT peterbell said:

Just caught the back end of PMs presentation to the CBI up in our part of the woods. Absolutely horrendous, Sky describing it as worse than May's presentation to the Tory conference. The man is either ill or has completely lost it or possibly both. The many negative comments on here from RoCs since the blog was started are surely only going to increase after this episode. Can't see him lasting more than 6 months.

Even the Daily Mail aren't impressed
www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10229549/amp/Boris-Johnson-praises-Pepper-Pig-World-bizarre-CBI-speech.html


Boris Johnson praises Pepper Pig World, compares himself to MOSES, makes ENGINE noises, and says 'mother nature' doesn't like WFH in bizarre speech to business chiefs... then suffers an awkward silence as he loses his train of thought

[wb61]

Nov 22, 2021 10:44:23 GMT neilj said:

Nov 22, 2021 10:38:29 GMT peterbell said:

Just caught the back end of PMs presentation to the CBI up in our part of the woods. Absolutely horrendous, Sky describing it as worse than May's presentation to the Tory conference. The man is either ill or has completely lost it or possibly both. The many negative comments on here from RoCs since the blog was started are surely only going to increase after this episode. Can't see him lasting more than 6 months.

Even the Daily Mail aren't impressed
www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10229549/amp/Boris-Johnson-praises-Pepper-Pig-World-bizarre-CBI-speech.html


Boris Johnson praises Pepper Pig World, compares himself to MOSES, makes ENGINE noises, and says 'mother nature' doesn't like WFH in bizarre speech to business chiefs... then suffers an awkward silence as he loses his train of thought

This may give interesting insights

bpded.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40479-020-00132-8

[wb61]

Sorry cant use this properly obviously, the medical article is posted by me. I don't suggest that the Prime-Minister is clinically at that level just that some of the traits described seem to be observable in his behaviour and that a downbeat reaction maybe a result of the lack of adulation since last week.

[Deleted]

WB61 @" I don't suggest that the Prime-Minister is clinically at that level"

But you hint at it by posting the link.

Only a suitably qualified medical practitioner could diagnose the PM's symptoms. And having done so wouldn't, of course, dream of placing that diagnosis on social media.

It surprises me that a member of the legal profession should attempt to do so.

My reaction to his bizarre performance at the CBI event is that the job might be too much for him to cope with just now. For his sake I hope it is nothing more serious than that.

For all our sakes , I hope his colleagues persuade him to think about iy seriously.

[patrickbrian]

"Only a suitably qualified medical practitioner could diagnose the PM's symptoms."

Indeed, who would dare suggest that our prime minister might be a touch narcissistic? Somebody will be calling him a liar next!

[wb61]

@ Colin

No I don't hint at it, I simply post to show that where there are particular traits of which the corollary are the negative traits which accompany it. Spectrums exist in all personality groups and the positive and negative attributes of a group are the same; it is only the extent of an effect can make that trait pathological not just quirky. You are absolutely correct to say that I am not qualified to make a diagnosis which is why I made the point (a) that it was me making it and (b) clarifying that it was intended for insight not diagnosis. However, I dispute that I am not qualified to hold an opinion (nor is anyone else unqualified for that matter) that the Prime Minister has a personality which displays narcissistic elements and that what might have been observed this morning was the negative side of having such personality traits. Finally, I used the article because I thought it was well written and accessible and would be convenient shorthand for my thoughts whcih otherwise would have required a long post.
Sometimes, I gain the impression that you could pick a fight in an empty room! 😢

[wb61]

Rachel Reeves used "the joke's not funny anymore" this morning, along with KS using that last week, is this the stick Labour will be using to beat the PM with?

[Deleted]

Bulb turn off their lights:

bulb.co.uk/blog/bulb-special-administration

Implications? They are a 'big' provider and without going through it all again then they are probably too big for the existing 'Suppler of Last Resort' (SoLR) process to absorb. So do they form the basis for a State owned supplier (as the 'bail out supplier'[1]) or does Kwarteng have to step in with a broader fix to prop up the current SoLR system?

Note also post the NordStream2 news gas prices shot back up so industry and commerce (notably those who didn't hedge) are going to be struggling and given some other countries have stepped in to help out their industry then Kwarteng is going to be under pressure to offer some help to UK businesses.

Kwarteng and CON HMG won't want to intervene more than they have to but with a bigger supplier now going into administration then IMO they'll have to intervene - how is TBC.

[1] For CON HMG that would probably only be a temporary fix until Spring'22 when the price cap is reset. IMO and TBC of course.

[Deleted]

WB61

@"it was intended for insight"

Insight into a  condition in respect of  which you provide a link -which explains that the condition  has "clinical implications" and that it is  described in " Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders".

This  "insight" -you suggested-might be appropriate when considering the PM's presentation at the CBI Conference.

I repeat-I am surprised that a member of the Legal Profession should make this suggestion/hint/insight .

Though in your case , perhaps less surprised.

[Deleted]

It seems it occurred to many people (if the PM was OK). I'm not a medical or mental health doctor, so just to say... (Maybe he thought such a speech works in the North).

[Deleted]

Laszlo-frankly what else would you expect him to say in response to that ?

It is what he , and his parliamentary colleagues, do about it which matters to voters.

[Deleted]

Bloomberg headline last month :-

"Shunned and Unloved, U.K. Business Is Boxed In by Boris Johnson

High tax burden and scapegoating leave executives in the cold, but Johnson’s business backers see little political alternative."

Reeves is on the Prawn Cocktail Circuit & said to be going down well. Johnson is making it easy for her to provide that " political alternative"

[somerjohn]

Colin: <i>My reaction to his bizarre performance at the CBI event is that the job might be too much for him to cope with just now. For his sake I hope it is nothing more serious than that.</i>

I'm outraged that you take it upon yourself to hint at incapacity and possible mental health issues on the part of the PM. What possible qualifications do you have to imply such a thing? Though in your case, perhaps less surprised.

(Sorry, couldn't resist giving you the Colin treatment.)

[steve]

The high/low point of Spaffer's embarrassing debacle at the cbi was when he lost his place in his pre prepared boosterist nonsense and kept repeating " forgive me".

The country shouldn't.

[Deleted]

SJ

What a silly billy you are.

[somerjohn]

colin

Well, if posting Colin-style makes one a silly billy, so be it.

Illustrating that point was the reason for my post, really. If you find it annoying when done to you, why do you do it to others, like WB61, providing what seem like useful insights?