19-Nov-2021 : CON 36 / LAB 34 / GREEN 10 / LIBDEM 7

[Deleted]

Nov 21, 2021 13:42:20 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I very much doubt Dishy Rishi would actually appeal to the voters BJ was able to get - and I hate to say it but I do think race would be a factor in a number of ways if he was the successor. 

Could you say what evidence you rely on  to assert that  the former Labour voters in Red Wall seats who voted for BJ, would not vote for Sunak because of his ethnic background .

[paulnish]

Nov 21, 2021 13:50:10 GMT colin said:

Nov 21, 2021 13:42:20 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I very much doubt Dishy Rishi would actually appeal to the voters BJ was able to get - and I hate to say it but I do think race would be a factor in a number of ways if he was the successor. 

Could you say what evidence you rely on  to assert that  the former Labour voters in Red Wall seats who voted for BJ, would not vote for Sunak because of his ethnic background .

[lululemonmustdobetter]

colin

First I made no assertion that all those who voted for BJ wouldn't vote for BJ on ethnic grounds (please don't try and make this a woke/cultural wars/metropolitan elite, that's why your side lost Brexit blah blah type argument). I said I thought race would be a factor, which I think seems to be glaringly obvious. but it is not the only factor, I also think Rishi appeals more to traditional Tory voters (given his position on a number of issues) and not necessarily to some of the voters BJ appealed to in the so called Red Wall. He is not a Red Tory.

On the race point, do you really doubt that race isn't an issue in this country and that we are all now colour blind? It is often quoted that in confidential surveys approx 30% of the electorate admit/express opinions that would be viewed as racist. Older voters are more likely to hold such opinions, as are people who live outside of the metropolitan areas. Such voters are a higher proportion of the votes in the seats BJ won from Labour (that is not to say there are no people with racist opinions living in cities such as the PSRL). As with most things its a bit of a numbers game. Assuming 70% turnout and and electorate of 47mil, approximately 10mil voters could be influenced by such opinions in either abstaining or voting for another party. Even if you assume this 10 mil is split proportionally along the lines of share of the vote that's some 4.36m 2019 Tory voters who this could be an issue for. Even if for only a quarter of these voters it actually ultimately impacted their vote, that over a million votes that are probably disproportionately on this seats. That would potentially flip a lot of them.

Its unlikely for the the ethnic community that there would be a significant counter vote to balance this. Voters with a Pakistani background aren't going to be more likely to vote for him, and in the Hindu community there is the split between those who lean to the BJP and those who's loyalties are more with Congress.

[jib]

@ lululemon

If Sunak were to be in a position to take over the Leadership of the Tories, he would undoubtedly face a pretty tough contest versus the likes of Truss, Hunt and a number of others before a run-off with the members. Assuming he got that far!
It would be a tough ask of him. I remember other bright stars of the Tories like Heseltine and Portillo haven't done so well.

[Deleted]

Nov 21, 2021 14:55:07 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

 I said I thought race would be a factor, which I think seems to be glaringly obvious.

Not to me which is why I asked my question

[Deleted]

Nov 21, 2021 14:55:07 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

It is often quoted that in confidential surveys approx 30% of the electorate admit/express opinions that would be viewed as racist. 

Could you provide a link to those surveys please?

[oldnat]

Now only those living in one polity of the UK, out of the four, are subject to the elective dictatorship of one party rule. My sympathies are with them. :-)


www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-59360575

[jib]

Changes afoot in Wales with a cooperation deal between Labour and Plaid. One of the most notable plans is the proposed increase in Senedd members.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-59360575

[lululemonmustdobetter]

@ Colin

There have been quite a few - eg

theconversation.com/how-racist-is-britain-today-what-the-evidence-tells-us-141657

On the page there is also a link to the European Social Survey. There was a survey a couple of years back that I remember and will try and dig out a link for.

[neilj]

Interesting development
www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/21/lib-dems-and-labour-should-only-target-seats-they-can-win-says-ed-davey
The Liberal Democrats will target only one of two forthcoming byelections in Conservative-held seats, the party’s leader Ed Davey has revealed, as he said both his party and Labour should focus their campaigns “where they think they can win”.

Labour would argue they are second place in both seats but still may suggest cooperation down the road

[shevii]

@ NeilJ

That sounded quite exciting until you see in the article that they will still be standing a candidate so in a sense he is stating what would probably have happened anyway but with perhaps a hint of wanting something more formal in the future (although knowing Labour won't offer it).

[alec]

colin - I don't know any of the details of the French migrant story, other than there are always two sides (at least) to any media report. I do wonder though, if the roles were reversed, and France had threatened to tear up an international agreement, refused to honour commitments it freely entered into, and spent it's time deliberately antagonising us and our allies, whether the British would be happy for France to lecture us about what we have to do to solve their problems.

There is a price to be paid for maintaining a state of diplomatic war with Europe as a centrepiece of government political strategy.

On Johnson and his successor: I agree with the original comments by @lulumon. The point I've been trying to make for some time now is that Johnson is a vote winner, but when he goes, a lot of votes may go with him. He opened up a path for Conservatives in 2019 (with the help of Brexit) that no other leader had found since 1987. I currently don't believe that Conservative fortunes can be so easily revived by a change of leadership, because whatever Johnson is losing them at present, he is also gaining something. Nothing to do with ethnicity, but I don't see Sunak or Truss are having remotely the same electoral gift as Johnson has, and someone like Hunt will struggle to hold his party, so deep are the Brexit wounds.

There may be a character waiting in the wings who can do this, but I don't think we've seen them yet. Even if there is, Brexit is going to cast a very long shadow over the economy, and future PM will have to choose between closer links with the EU or a worse economic situation. One creates ructions in their 2019 voter base, the other sets the scene for a deeply depressing decade of decline. Even if they could persuade their party to get closer to the EU for the sake of the economy, that lets Labour off the European hook they are currently strung up on, and there is no guarantee that Blue wall voters will trust the Conservatives after the last few years.

[Deleted]

lululemon

Thanks.

 We could have a long discussion about whether some of the questions in surveys on "racism" actually relate to racist behaviour-but I don't invite such a dialogue here 

I offer this data on overtly racist attitudes in Europe:-

www.boredpanda.com/racism-in-the-eu-map-bezzleford/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=organic  

and these opinions from black ethic individuals about their own experiences of racism across Europe :-


fra.europa.eu/en/publication/2018/being-black-eu

...and conclude  that your suggestion that 30% of UK "electorate" is racist is very wide of the mark.

Coming back to your original proposition-that Sunak as leader  of Cons would lose Red Wall seat votes because he is of ethnic Indian Heritage.  That would need a survey in those seats to establish. But I might suggest that a party with ethnic minorities in 6 Cabinet positions , including  4 Secs. of State as well as CoE is not exhibiting fears  about colour prejudice in the UK electorate.

[Deleted]

ALEC
Thanks.

I'm not going to swap opinions with you about which side of the Channel ,intransigence and trouble making  has been most evident. We would never agree.

But I do commend for your attention a piece in today's ST by Tim Shipman about how Anglo French relations in the future are being mutually assessed.Its an interesting read taking us beyond politically useful spats to fundamentals-like France & UK ( both P5 members) being Europe's only serious military powers.

There are tactics -and there is strategy. I wouldn't credit either Macron or Johnson with much grasp of the latter mind you, obsessed as they both are with the former. But rumour has it they are thinking about it.
 
On Sunak I agree with you about his ethnicity-but don't agree that Cons are sunk without Boris.

Nor do I foresee the broken Britain crawling back to  EU membership which you propose.

And I cannot conceive of a putative Labour or Con leader who would go to our electorate on such a proposition.

[davwel]

From lululemon:  ""I am a bit puzzled by the opinion some have that if BJ becomes a liability electorally, all the Tories have to do is replace them and they are ensured of victory. Love him or loath him, BJ was able to do what May was unable to and flip those red wall seats. Not sure if any of his possible replacements have his pull. I very much doubt Dishy Rishi would actually appeal to the voters BJ was able to get - and I hate to say it but I do think race would be a factor in a number of ways if he was the successor. On balance, and it really shouldn't and really wish it wouldn't, I think it would work against the Tories in a GE. The other possible heirs, Truss and Raab really are second rate and dont have any of BJ's appeal.""

IMHO Rishy Sunak has more things to worry about with Red-Wall potential Tory voters than his links to the Indian sub-continent.  I agree he will rank above Truss and Raab, who I class as dim second-raters.  I am watching Hunt, who seems ambitious and is capable.  Also his big advantage will be not being associated with this present cabinet, and the poor thinking of its members, chosen not on merit but because they backed Hard Brexit.

Sunak comes across as private-school, Southern English and wealthy, and any one of these attributes won`t help, let alone two or all three.  A candidate for PM more like William Hague would do well in the North.

[jib]

Nov 21, 2021 19:30:06 GMT colin said:

There are tactics -and there is strategy. I wouldn't credit either Macron or Johnson with much grasp of the latter mind you, obsessed as they both are with the former. But rumour has it they are thinking about it.
 
On Sunak I agree with you about his ethnicity-but don't agree that Cons are sunk without Boris.

Nor do I foresee the broken Britain crawling back to  EU membership which you propose.

And I cannot conceive of a putative Labour or Con leader who would go to our electorate on such a proposition.

Of course there could be no crawling back. 

[lululemonmustdobetter]

colin

@ Colin, I think this is the one from a few years back -

news.sky.com/story/racism-poll-almost-a-third-of-brits-prejudiced-10403449

And more recently

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/16/racism-in-the-uk-still-rife-say-majority-of-britons


Also I would question that only 'overtly' expressed racist/prejudice attitudes as opposed to more subtle ones are the only possible indicator that such views have an impact on some peoples voting. There is a reason why right wing politician's have been playing dog whistle politics for years. Taking the various surveys polls etc both of us have have cited I think its probably fair to say approx 30% hold views that could be construed as racist.

Personally I think it is either extremely complacent, wishful thinking, malignly politically motivated or wishful thinking to suggest that racism/prejudice does not paly a role in the politics of the UK.

[baggy07]

I have been thinking about the recent polls and feel there are a couple of elements that have not been mentioned. The Green Party are between 6% and 10%, many of them I believe are
ex labour voters who were towards the left of the Party, like myself and 4 other people I know I am now a Green Party supporter, I believe Starmers attacks on the Left of the party may bring increases of 4 to 6% from the Centre Right, but are losing the equivalent to the left ie when Corbyn was leader the Greens were at 2%.Indeed Corbyn had this level of support in 2016. I have an extreme level of dislike and mistrust of Keir Starmer that I believe can only be fixed in allowing Corbyn being allowed back into the PLP and an inclusion of a couple of MPs from the Left wing of the Party.
If this does not happen, culturally I believe the Conservative vote cannot get below 36%, and Starmers vote cannot get above 36% in an election. I could even vote for another Labour Leader of the Right that tried to Unite the Party and be inclusive of people of the Left.

[thexterminatingdalek]

My views on Ed Davey are well-rehearsed, drawn from the occasion I met him, and far from positive. Based on my existing prejudice, I was less sympathetic to his getting noticed feeding at the trough along with Geoffrey Cox, Owen P and the rest than others might be.

It's all very well pleading that all his consultancy fees go to looking after his son, and, obviously he has my sympathy for his family circumstances, but it's a bit like me saying all the money I make on Tuesday afternoons is specifically earmarked to pay the mortgage. Ultimately he'd need to find the money somewhere, regardless of whether it's from his parliamentary salary or a sleazy second job.

It will come as little surprise to anyone, I suspect, that as a prime mover in propping up the Tories while they dismantled many of the structures which were in place to support his son and others in the same position, betrayed students, and directly paved the way for brexit, I've no sympathy for his suggestion Labour should step aside to give him a free ride. I told him to his face I'd never again vote for his party (as I often used to) while he and the rest of his yellow Tory mates remained in parliament, and don't intend to renege on that, since I wouldn't trust them not to do it all again.

[jib]

@exterminatingdalek

I think I hold similar views wrt the Lib Dems. They really have not apologised for the destructive legacy of the 2010 coalition, even if many of the MPs involved paid the electoral price.

[shevii]

@ Baggy07

My thoughts exactly (the stickyness of the Lab to Green vote which I think is stronger than people think).

But I do have some doubts about when push comes to shove in the marginals what people will do. It will depend a lot on circumstances at the time and how much distance Labour can put between them and the Tories on policy. I also think that if you're not in the Green column already that there may not be many more in the Labour don't knows to move over, so as the Tory and Labour don't knows make up their minds the Green percentage share of vote naturally drops. Also a big question over where the Lab to Green vote is stacked (safe Labour seats in the cities?) and whether there's as much of that in Labour Red Wall targets.

I still believe that Labour's biggest problem may be in the less politically engaged and the voters that didn't turn out for them in 2015 but did in 2017 because policies were on offer that grabbed their attention and there was a whole social media flood that was often instigated by the very people who have left the party.

[oldnat]

Nov 21, 2021 16:41:52 GMT jib said:

One of the most notable plans is the proposed increase in Senedd members.

For the UK, perhaps the most interesting dynamic is the divergence between England and its proximate neighbours. How is that to be managed? By adopting attitudes and creating structures that allow divergence, or maximising central control from Westminster?

There are both similarities and differences between the Llafur/Plaid deak and the SNP/SGP one - as one would expect being different polities with different priorities and existing arrangements, so a comparison can be illuminating -

Welsh / Scots

Increasing the number of Members of the Senedd / Independence
Devolving broadcasting and communication powers / Devolving broadcasting and communication powers
Introducing local tourism taxes / Under discussion - again!
Cap on second and holiday home numbers / LAs to licence short term let properties by April 2022
Rent controls to make properties affordable for locals / Enhancing tenants rights and delivering 110,000 affordable homes by 2032
Reforming housing law to end homelessness / Further extension of "Housing First"
Creating an NHS style free-at-point-of-need National Care Service / Planned to be operational in 2026
Plans to change council tax / Plans to change council tax
Free school meals for Primary School children / Already in place
------- / Energy reduction policies etc

[jib]

oldnat

Clearly devolution is an ongoing process in Wales. Some Tories will not be opposed, but I suspect the London Tory line will be the usual head in sand stuff.

There is an opportunity to make the Federal UK constitutional settlement better but I doubt there's any appetite in No 10.

[alec]

Nov 21, 2021 19:30:06 GMT colin said:

Nor do I foresee the broken Britain crawling back to  EU membership which you propose.

colin - I wouldn't agree with this either, which is why I didn't say it. I talked of a closer relationship only.

The fact of the matter is that we have secured a terrible deal on leaving the EU, which is very distant and disengaged, and very damaging for the UK economy as a result. I personally think it's a given that over time, whoever is in no 10 after Johnson, we will settle down and edge back towards a more appropriate and sensible deal with the EU, once we accept that if we are willing to subjugate elements of sovereignty for a trade deal with Pacific Rim nations, it's just so much more sensible to do likewise for the global powerblock on our doorstep. That doesn't mean we rejoin though. If we can trim a little of the economic losses from Johnson's Brexit failure, subsequent Chancellors may be better able to fix some of our problems. That's all I'm suggesting, so please don't misinterpret my comments as suggesting we are bound to rejoin I think that's unlikely for a long while yet.

On Macron, Johnson and strategy, I agree. Neither are showing particularly impressive leadership credentials. We need to sort out our relationship with France quickly, else our mutual strategic enemies will get bolder.

[jib]

alec
I don't think anyone believes that future accords between the UK and EU won't firm up ambiguities in the relationship.
Entirely sensible, but it probably requires different leadership.

[alec]

jib - agreed, but it's also worth noting that investment in the UK is being held back because of the antagonism. That will have a long term drag on the economy. Oddly though, there was a very significant announcement last week of a major £150m investment in NI - www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-59347115
It's a clear signal that the protocol works for NI, with the access to both EU and UK markets, yet the UK government is risking unravelling this. They need to stop posturing, start winding down the Unionists and just get on with making the agreement work.

[steve]

Baggy
The Greens tend to do better in opinion polls than in actual national elections.
Primarily because they don't have the resources to campaign in every constituency.
For example in 2014 the greens were polling at around 7% and even won 7% in the Euro elections.
However at the 2015 election this had fallen back to 3.8% in 2017 this dropped to 1.6% in 2019 this had risen to 2.9% so corbyn as leader doesn't seem to have been a decisive factor.
It's difficult to see how a party that has never polled more than 3.8% at an election would attract 4%+ just from.Labour especially as Labour are now polling around 5% higher than in 2019.
While the volatility of votes has certainly increased a fair proportion of current green polling will go to the abt candidate at the general election with the best chance of winning.

[oldnat]

Nov 21, 2021 22:17:08 GMT jib said:

oldnat

There is an opportunity to make the Federal UK constitutional settlement better but I doubt there's any appetite in No 10.

There is - although there is currently no "Federal" structure.

It would be presumptuous to assume that continuing with the existing UK Union is the best solution for all its component parts, and not a wider political union.

Constitutional scholar Elliot Bulmer has an interesting take on how matters may alter after the demise of the current monarch.

www.thenational.scot/politics/19730979.can-british-constitution-focused-monarch-really-expected-last/

Time and time again, the opportunities to fix the roof while the sun shone were squandered. Finally, when it became clear that there was no alternative but to do something, we hired the cheapest, least qualified odd-job man possible [Tony Blair]. To put it in terms Fawlty Towers fans will appreciate, Tony Blair did the constitutional equivalent of using a wooden lintel in a supporting wall. All his reforms were shoddy half-jobs, which tore down the old without properly constructing the new. Since then, we have been looking for “a screw jack to prop it up before the whole bloody lot comes down”.
The mortar that held up this venerable pile of traditions, charters, statutes, precedents and conventions was the “good chaps” theory – the idea that everyone could be trusted to do the right thing, to act with self-restraint, to respect the principles of justice and fair-play, to do what is “done” and not do what is “not done”.



The maintenance necessary was as much moral as institutional. This was recognised by the Victorian jurist Sir James Fitzjames Stephen. Writing in 1873, he argued that the defects of the British system could be borne with. “So long as political life is the chosen occupation of wise and honourable men”. If “the personal character of politicians should ever be seriously lowered”, Britain’s lack of a written constitution “would give bad and unscrupulous men a power for evil hardly equalled in any other part of the world”.

[Deleted]

It kind of fascinates me when an extreme right winger like Corbyn is described as left winger - have these people (who allocate Corbyn as left winger) forgot that he described East Europeans as (an) inferior (race)?

In any case, it is neither here or there in terms of voting, but it does affect polling and local elections (just look up local elections in the SE and London when Corbyn was the leader - it may well be a good vaccination against confirmation bias).

[eor]

Nov 21, 2021 23:22:38 GMT steve said:

Baggy
The Greens tend to do better in opinion polls than in actual national elections.
Primarily because they don't have the resources to campaign in every constituency.
For example in 2014 the greens were polling at around 7% and even won 7% in the Euro elections.
However at the 2015 election this had fallen back to 3.8% in 2017 this dropped to 1.6% in 2019 this had risen to 2.9% so corbyn as leader doesn't seem to have been a decisive factor.
It's difficult to see how a party that has never polled more than 3.8% at an election would attract 4%+ just from.Labour especially as Labour are now polling around 5% higher than in 2019.
While the volatility of votes has certainly increased a fair proportion of current green polling will go to the abt candidate at the general election with the best chance of winning.

Steve - that makes clear and rational sense on every level, and was exactly the reason many on the right were quite blase about UKIP going into the 2015 GE, especially after Cameron's promise of a referendum. Think the Telegraph's Tim Stanley even wagered he'd run down Whitehall naked if they got to 6% and they finished on more than double that.

Of course, it's also fair to say that it was why they were entirely correct to be blase about UKIP going into various other General Elections, and why UK Labour has been correct to dismiss concerns about the Green vote at various recent GEs. It's another of those things that's always true until one day it goes bang.