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Post by Mark on Nov 19, 2021 14:34:44 GMT
CON 36 (+1)
LAB 34 (-1)
LIB DEM 7 (-1)
GREEN 10 (nc)
REF UK 5 (+1)
Via YouGov 19 Nov 2021
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2021 15:35:10 GMT
Tabs are now on YG website. MoE changes but of note is the drop in DKs for CON’19 which explains the small change since YG’s previous poll
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Post by mercian on Nov 19, 2021 18:57:12 GMT
Not bad result for a mid-term government. Mind you the bad publicity keeps on coming. I'd like to think that they have a master plan to have lots of good news in the run up to the next GE but somehow I doubt it.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Nov 19, 2021 19:27:17 GMT
VI is strongly affected by the messages that people receive - how else would we know what is going on outside of those our immediate circle? Most of that messaging comes from media (mainstream or social) so who constructs the message matters. One can but speculate as to precisely what Marr meant when announcing that he was leaving the most far reaching messenger in the UK - the BBC.
"I think British politics and public life are going to go through an even more turbulent decade, and as I’ve said, I am keen to get my own voice back."
Whose voice was he using previously?
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Post by mercian on Nov 19, 2021 19:33:12 GMT
His Master's Voice?
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Post by peterbell on Nov 19, 2021 23:02:37 GMT
PanelbasePolitical
@panelbasemd
· 1h
@panelbasemd
GB-wide Westminster voting intention. Fieldwork November 10th – 19th. Sample size 3,888.
Conservative 38% (-3%)
Labour 39% (+3%)
Lib Dem 9% (-1%)
Green 6% (+1%)
Changes since September 16th
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Post by peterbell on Nov 19, 2021 23:05:49 GMT
The above Panelbase poll originally posted by Shevii on UKPR
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Nov 20, 2021 8:21:22 GMT
One can but speculate as to precisely what Marr meant when announcing that he was leaving the most far reaching messenger in the UK - the BBC. "I think British politics and public life are going to go through an even more turbulent decade, and as I’ve said, I am keen to get my own voice back." Whose voice was he using previously? I noted the term 'my own voice back', which suggests to me that a. in the past he's felt he has been able to use 'his own voice' and b. it's only fairly recently that he's felt he hasn't been able to use his 'own voice'. Maybe he feels that the management of the Beeb is already kowtowing too much towards the government of the day and losing its independence. In a way that's ironic in that the Beeb has lost the direct funding through government licensing etc but has become even more careful not to tread on governmental toes. |
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Post by jib on Nov 20, 2021 12:56:44 GMT
Polls definitely interesting at the moment and cross-over happening.
Labour look like they're getting their confidence back and are starting to look and sound like serious players again. Long road back though.
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Post by davwel on Nov 20, 2021 15:55:29 GMT
Despite rain, a Tory worker has put 2 leaflets through our letter-box today. One from our MP and one from a local councillor; both leaflets are two joined A4 sheets, and both have much similar content, but the difference in impact is striking.
The MP`s is well set out and clearly written, whereas the councillor`s is a mish-mash of snippets, intentions and vague questions to answer e.g. do you want a new academy? Potholes is a major topic here, and the MP has a striking picture of a series of holes, showing what is doing so much damage to vehicles in the region. Whereas the councillor`s pic shows such a good surface that I needed my magnifying lens to spot the hole.
I am posting this partly as a test, since I am unsure whether it will come as a reply to jib or in the main sequence. Hopefully Mark can make a little clearer some of the instructions and rules on this new site. It`s been a great achievement so far getting so many of us across from UKPR, but as with the discussion on the number and type of threads it`s a difficult task producing robust systems to satisfy most members.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 20, 2021 16:00:15 GMT
It would be a shame if those transferring from ukpr used the blocking facility here to turn it into an echo chamber.
One of the best elements of ukpr was that this wasn't a feature
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Post by catmanjeff on Nov 20, 2021 16:29:48 GMT
Polls definitely interesting at the moment and cross-over happening. Labour look like they're getting their confidence back and are starting to look and sound like serious players again. Long road back though. The main aspects that lead to the polls showing a real change are:
1. Headline VI 2. Best PM 3. Best for the economy.
The last few weeks have been utterly dreadful for the Conservatives. You couldn't invent such bad circumstances if you tried. Therefore, I still think the blue team is still in the driving seat. Labour can't do much (as is true of all oppositions), and the Conservatives can do something on policy etc. the Tories have a ready made spin machine in the general media.
I think Labour need to start creating a coherent vision that could fix the issues in the UK. Not details, but some broad brush strokes.
It's still the first half of the match, and Labour have had 70% of the possession and missed a few chances. The Conservative defence has been shaky,
Still 0-0 I think, but the blue bench has got a lot of strong subs on the bench.
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Post by davwel on Nov 20, 2021 16:47:58 GMT
@ CMJ
I think your avatar has turned out too flickering for some of us with old eyes to linger enough to absorb the good sense in your messages. It gives a feeling like driving through straight tree trunks in strong sunlight. Younger folk are likely not fussed.
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Post by catmanjeff on Nov 20, 2021 16:53:52 GMT
@ CMJ I think your avatar has turned out too flickering for some of us with old eyes to linger enough to absorb the good sense in your messages. It gives a feeling like driving through straight tree trunks in strong sunlight. Younger folk are likely not fussed. If the majestic Floor Jansen is too much, I've toned it down  |
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Post by davwel on Nov 20, 2021 16:56:15 GMT
@ CMJ: That was a quick change, and much appreciated. Thanks.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 20, 2021 18:50:20 GMT
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Post by jib on Nov 20, 2021 19:05:40 GMT
There's an element of old story to this headline, but further "pillow talk" revelations will be further damage to Johnson. The brown stuff just keeps on coming for him at the moment. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2021 20:03:49 GMT
catmanjeff"but the blue bench has got a lot of strong subs on the bench." Care to say who?. I recall Alec saying the Con subs are useless. Its an important question as BJ's shine gets more and more threadbare-The cartoons in the Times increasingly portray him as an overpromising showman with a history of disappointed promisees .
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Post by jib on Nov 20, 2021 20:18:27 GMT
catmanjeff"but the blue bench has got a lot of strong subs on the bench." Care to say who?. I recall Alec saying the Con subs are useless. Its an important question as BJ's shine gets more and more threadbare-The cartoons in the Times increasingly portray him as an overpromising showman with a history of disappointed promisees . The Tories obviously made hay against the inept, cack handed Corbyn. Integrity and duty to public service will increasingly become important in the run into 2024 - effectiveness and actual delivery beyond bluster will increasingly play a role. Beyond Johnson, whether to Tories have strength in depth is debatable. Possibly Hunt. Sunak is untested and I'm yet to see him in open political battle. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2021 20:39:17 GMT
CON are playing with 14 (rugby) but will Boris (player-coach) retire to chairman or keep giving away soft penalties? The bench is strong but likes of Hunt are our of favour and some of the new players need some time in junior roles before test matches. CON are GE champs for now but have slipped to roughly tied in UK rankings after the Autumn performance. I'd still put them as favourites to win the GE'24 but in a two horse race then a 'win is a win' so Starmer-LAB could win ugly[1] and if Boris keeps giving away soft penalties (own goals for football types) then PM Starmer in 2024, innit  [1] Lab need a new #10 (IMO) as Starmer can't seem to convert those penalties into points. Reeves is looking promising. The other issue is Corbyn of course. Not for me to suggest what Starmer can or should do about that but he either needs to give Corbyn back the whip or ensure the 'sin bin' is expulsion (something he can't currently do). IMO of course. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Nov 20, 2021 20:45:59 GMT
Good evening all from a dark and cold PSRL. jib 'The Tories obviously made hay against the inept, cack handed Corbyn' - or to put it another way after their friends in the press had done a complete hatchet job on him. Whilst I do think ultimately Corbyn was always going to fall short of actually becoming PM, I do think he had his strengths and was far from being a totally inept campaigner. Concerning the polls, I think the longer 'sleaze' is in the news and the NHS is stressed the greater the permanent dent to Tory VI will be. At some point the government are going to have to persuade their lives are getting better - and Starmer isn't a potential bogeyman in the way the Tories were able to paint Corbyn. Whilst Starmer can be hit with the 'he tried to bloc Brexit' line, that could becoming a double edged sword for the Tories, as if people's lots aren't improving many may increasingly say 'he was right'. As Colin says, the shine on Johnson is waning, but I think the rea risk for him is if more and more voters start to truly see him as a joke PS Attlee was by far the best Prime Minister. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 20, 2021 20:49:32 GMT
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Post by catmanjeff on Nov 20, 2021 21:46:01 GMT
Essentially Labour has to convince the public they have ideas and a front bench capable of cutting through.
How many Shadow Ministers could non-politicos name?
Close to zero I suggest. I suspect 80% of the public couldn't identify the Shadow Chancellor.
The Conservatives don't have to great, just better than Labour.
If the public don't think the opposition are much better, they will cling to nurse.
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Post by hireton on Nov 20, 2021 21:56:24 GMT
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Post by catmanjeff on Nov 20, 2021 22:07:22 GMT
The injustice of a millionaire keeping 90%+ of their assets, while someone with £100,000 of assets keeping just over 10% is blindingly obvious. Are the political antenna in Number 10 so blunted as not to see it? |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Nov 20, 2021 22:18:18 GMT
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Post by hireton on Nov 20, 2021 22:34:47 GMT
@cmj "Are the political antenna in Number 10 so blunted as not to see it?" One of the concerns on the Tory benches is that the No10 political and party operation is just not working. It has been strengthened recently by the addition of another one of Johnson's former aides but his reliance on a small group of old familiars seems to be at the heart of the problem. In other news the UK Government's commitment to build 40 new hospitals has been declared as undeliverable by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority: inews.co.uk/news/health/boris-johnson-build-40-new-nhs-hospitals-unachievable-watchdog-1309452?ito=twitter_share_article-topWhen sorrows come.... |
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Post by mercian on Nov 20, 2021 23:09:03 GMT
Colin
"I recall Alec saying the Con subs are useless."
I await my country's call. THEN you'll see useless.
-------------------------
tw
"Lab need a new #10 (IMO)"
Meaning new leader I assume? That is Labour's Achilles heel. They always give a leader at least one GE, and often more.
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Post by eor on Nov 20, 2021 23:39:34 GMT
tw "Lab need a new #10 (IMO)" Meaning new leader I assume? That is Labour's Achilles heel. They always give a leader at least one GE, and often more. You could argue the Tories always did until they (once) didn't. But also the context matters - Gordon Brown and John Major (1997) both quit after being voted out of office. Ed Milliband and William Hague both quit as LOTO after failing to make any progress from poor situations. Neil Kinnock (1987) and Jeremy Corbyn (2017) both stayed on as LOTO after making gains, and then both left when the next election fell far short of expectations. Michael Howard didn't stay on as LOTO after making big gains, tho I believe that was his decision based on the fact he'd have been nearly 69 by the 2010 election and asking people to elect him PM well into his 70s wasn't sensible. Theresa May stayed as PM after disappointing in her only GE, and Boris Johnson, John Major (1992) and David Cameron (2015) all stayed as PM after doing unexpectedly well. IDS was ejected as LOTO due to low confidence amongst his parliamentary party - Jeremy Corbyn's parliamentary party tried to do the same for the same reasons but a different electoral system meant the membership retained him in spite of the MPs' wishes. That seems to me to be the one clear difference between those two parties in recent decades; in other cases they seem to have behaved pretty similarly when faced with similar political landscapes. |
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Post by barbara on Nov 21, 2021 8:08:58 GMT
There definitely seems to be a sea change over on the Mail Online. The "He's doing his best leave him alone" has disappeared to be replaced with "Boris must go". So far it's confined to Johnson himself and the sleazy Tories rather than the policies but that might change with HS2 and the care costs. Also the old "Sir Kneely Starmer" derogatory stuff has reduced but again that might reflect the sleaze issue and Starmer's undoubted probity.
All depends now on what the Tories do with Johnson and whether the Labour front bench can capitalise on the situation.
Be interesting to watch.
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