19-Nov-2021 : CON 36 / LAB 34 / GREEN 10 / LIBDEM 7

[lululemonmustdobetter]

@ somerjohn

'I'm outraged..,' didn't realise that Colin lived in Tunbridge Wells ;-).

wb61

I am sure Labour are trying to get the 'its not funny anymore' line to stick - heard it enough times. Johnson's adopted persona always runs the risk of the majority seeing him exactly in those terms, as a joke and not in a nice way. The inherent problem for him is that when people's sentiment changes and they want a reliable safe pair of hands type of leader its difficult for him to project those qualities - the qualities Starmer projects. Also Starmer doesn't scare 'soft' Tory voters anywhere near the way Corbyn did and may even attract some remain Tory voters looking for a means to express their frustrations at the next GE.

However, I really cant see Tory MP's ditching him before the GE or certain papers withdrawing their support during a GE. Tory VI is till high - its not as if Labour are 5-10 points ahead or necessarily looking like they are going to open up such a lead.

[wb61]

@ Colin

If you cannot accept the honesty of my reply, and in the sense in which I explained, I think that it is better that I engage with you no further before I write something I regret.

@ Somerjohn

Thank you for understanding the purpose of the post I made. I wish I could emulate the patience you display with some posters.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

colin

'What a silly billy you are.'

Please can you provide the evidence on which you make this assertion. 

[Deleted]

TW

In the  R&W Tweet you provided , the first line is :-

"Britons most trust the Conservative Party to manage the economy (34%),"

The net Con lead is a mere 5% pts in the R&W Poll.

I guess you have caught up with BJ at CBI Conference by now. I just watched Sky News report on it. The angle was lack of preparation. Now its not hard to find adverse City opinion about Cons just now, and that Sky take on BJ's speech just adds to the feeling of disconnect with Business.
I saw Starmer's effort. It was certainly in stark contrast to the PM.

 All of this prompts the question-by what means does a negative rating for Cons  from Business translate into a loss of that lead on "The Economy" with voters?. Do voters simply make their own mind up-or do headlines like BJ at CBI Conference feed in to voters?

I wonder if  Cons ever  trailed Labour on "The Economy"-and if so why & when. ?

BJ is working hard on reducing that 5% just now 

[jib]

Not sure this has been posted.

yougov.co.uk/topics/health/articles-reports/2021/11/22/britons-would-support-covid-19-vaccine-booster-man

Strong for making COVID-19 booster shots a requirement for certain activities.

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2021 14:59:04 GMT jib said:

Strong for making COVID-19 booster shots a requirement for certain activities.

When you read the reports of the numbers rioting and arson  in Belgium & Netherlands, and demonstrations  in Austria, Croatia and Italy, Brits do seem to have an entirely different opinion on this.

[somerjohn]

Just checking my new avatar

[somerjohn]

Ah, bingo.

My nice pic comes courtesy of Cecimo, a no-doubt worthy organisation which describes itself thus:

"CECIMO is an umbrella organisation that serves the common interests and values of the European Machine Tool Industries and related Manufacturing Technologies at EU and global level."

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2021 14:49:10 GMT colin said:

R&W's trackers don't go back very far and YG's tracker on Which government would be better at managing the economy? [1] only goes back to July'19. Ipsos Mori might be the place to look for longer term history (eg Black Wednesday and the aftermath) but their longer-term trackers that far back only seem to ask about 'Economic Optimism' rather than which team folks think would be the better team. I would expect it does to a large extent follow headline VI (ie be largely partisan bias) but IIRC then 'usually' CON lead on issues like Economy and LAB lead on issues like NHS

New R&W today but the fieldwork won't have reflected today's event. From last week's R&W then note CON were already net -ve on Economy

/photo/1

As for Boris today. WTF (face slap emoji not available so )

He might hope gen.pub just think it's 'Boris being Boris' or the press don't dwell on it but he risks a lot more internal credibility issues within CON MPs who will be sharpening their knives perhaps? My concern after the recent 'Owen goal' car crash was that Boris would think the answer was 'more Boris' (which we sadly saw today) where as I had hoped for 'less (=more)'. If CON take a further hit in VI and Boris's approval ratings drop further then I won't be surprised. I'd be considering writing a letter to Brady by now! Not my preferred timing but if Boris can't fix the Boris problem then Boris becomes the problem so 'see ya' (IMO)

[1] Last update 1Nov: yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/trackers/which-government-would-be-better-at-managing-the-economy

[robert]

Nov 22, 2021 14:59:04 GMT jib said:

Strong for making COVID-19 booster shots a requirement for certain activities.

One such activity which could and should be included for compulsory Covid vaccination, is that of making an application to reside permanently in the U.K. A policy of compulsory vaccination upon arrival may also go some way to reducing the problem of boatloads of economic migrants arriving each day. It would need to be advertised far and wide of course. 

[steve]

Robert
Because of course those making the perilous crossing of the busiest shipping lanes in the world in an inflatable dingy will of course decide not to bother if told they would have to receive a vaccination against a life threatening condition on arrival.

[Deleted]

In case it does become relevant soon then background piece on:

Conservative Party leadership contests:
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests

[Deleted]

@ COLIN - A recent survey from Ipsos Mori that you/others might be interested in. Write-up is 16Nov'21 but fieldwork was over the Summer (pre global energy price spike and other recent events). Very high levels of 'optimism' amongst UK Captains of Industry with data back to 1987

www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/uk-captains-industry-give-their-views-economy-challenges-and-future-work

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Last I heard was that no letters had yet been submitted. Interesting to read the post from our ROC friends. Its starting to remind me a bit of the LOC posters on Corbyn. Surely one thumping victory should give him enough political capital to get through to the next GE?

[wb61]

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/nov/22/welsh-labour-and-plaid-cymru-to-cooperate-on-almost-50-policy-areas

Labour in Wales, with Plaid support, setting a radical policy agenda: I wonder on the reaction from Labour UK leadership, Ed Milliband seemed to get thrown by Conservative attacks on such policy differences between Wales and the UK Labour Party.

[jib]

And a sobering assessment from Germany's Health minister:

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/covid-news-live-booster-vaccine-b1961982.html

[Deleted]

TW 

Thanks.

Its the link -if any -between Business opinion of Government and Public opinion on Economy + VI  that I wonder about.

Maybe there is no such link.

My take on today is a combination of Sky News & yourself-ie Didn't prepare ( lack of engagement with/insulting) -Boris hamming it up will do.

It wont & it didnt.

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2021 15:58:43 GMT @tw said:

@ COLIN - A recent survey from Ipsos Mori that you/others might be interested in. Write-up is 16Nov'21 but fieldwork was over the Summer (pre global energy price spike and other recent events). Very high levels of 'optimism' amongst UK Captains of Industry with data back to 1987

www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/uk-captains-industry-give-their-views-economy-challenges-and-future-work

Thanks-and that just magnifies the tragedy of a PM that has alienated them.

[Deleted]

An opinion on the Rotterdam riots suggesting pandemic controls are just a catalyst.


unherd.com/2021/11/why-rotterdam-erupted/?fbclid=IwAR1m0ihZYWfuXje-u3hXtUJOpBlZBYxOhxPvgPPEm78dzNH5hym1VuH_Y00

Trouble brewing for Rutte ?

[shevii]

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@redfieldwilton
·
1m
First tie in British voting intention this year.

Westminster Voting Intention (21 Nov):

Conservative 37% (+1)
Labour 37% (–)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 15 Nov

Note the dates- too early for any Pepper Pig bounce

[leftieliberal]

@tw

"Bulb will become the first energy company to be placed into "special administration", where it is run by the government through the regulator Ofgem." www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59373198

In effect, I am now a customer of a nationalised energy company again. With the benefit of hindsight, it might have been better if the Government had done this earlier by nationalising all the companies that went bust rather than trying to transfer their (loss-making) customers to other companies and so placing them under more financial stress. The failure of a large number of companies was quite predictable.

Justina Miltienyte, an energy policy expert at Uswitch, said the failure of Bulb signalled the "tipping point" of the UK energy crisis.

"Ultimately this demise wasn't caused by a badly run business model. Instead, Bulb was choked off by the way the government decided to structure the current energy market with the price cap."

[Deleted]

@ COLIN - Optimistically then business ignores Boris and looks to "He who controls the purse strings"

From new R&W then: Can build a strong economy: Boris 42 (-1) v Starmer 29 (uc)

NB That is not the same question as the link I posted earlier that only showed a 5pt lead. R&W seem to ask an additional question that gives 'other' parties?? I posted the previously link mainly to show Greens' USP = 'protect the environment'.

@ SHEVII - Re: Pepper Pig. Boris perhaps thought he needed to go after the youth vote with that pig's ear of a speech? Lots of tech unicorns doing very well in UK but pigs don't fly and dead cats don't bounce (ie poll drums after the Owen goal car crash but pre fieldwork on his latest 'daddy pig' moment) 

Other snippets from new R&W (changes since last week)

HMG competency: -17 (+3)
Boris: -8 (+2)
Starmer: -5 (+4)
Better PM: Boris 41 (+1) v Starmer 32 (+1)

[barbara]

Westminster Voting Intention (21 Nov):

Conservative 37% (+1)
Labour 37% (–)
Liberal Democrat 9% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 4% (–)
Other 2% (-1)

Changes +/- 15 Nov

Now that we're now sitting at ROC parties 41% LOC parties 56%. (approx), the chance of the next election yielding a hung parliament very much rests on the willingness and forethought of the 56% to vote tactically plus those from the 41% who don't want Johnson to do the same. I also see in the Daily Mail today that Nigel Farage is contemplating a return to frontline politics. This may well split the ROC vote still further. After almost 2 years the polls are starting to get interesting!

[alec]

colin and @tw - I would take care with the Ipsos 'Captains on Industry' data. It's based on an n=107 sample, so really is looking at very small numbers of very large businesses. These are the businesses with the ability to deal with Brexit related issues much better than SMEs, who form the vast majority of our exporters, by number at least if not so much by value. The responses also in many ways mirror covid timings, so yes, we would expect to see roaring confidence over the summer.

On the CBI speeches: Johnson appalling. Business needs confidence in government. Starmer looked highly effective. He has ideas, and Labour is quietly retaking lost ground in terms of the support of business. Also looks like quite a few Red Wall Tories are going to defy Johnson tonight on care costs. Another self inflicted wound, and I don't think Johnson or Sunak will come out of this well.

[steve]

Has any journalist thought to put it to Priti Patel that giving a minister the power to revoke citizenship without notice is exactly the sort of thing that you'd expect of a totalitarian regime like the one her parents fled?

Her ambition clearly long ago buried any lessons she learned from her family's history, but maybe forcing her to face what she has become would do her some good.

[paulnish]

That speech by the Prime Minister was really poor.

It seemed to me that he had forgotten that he was in the north of England.

It is ok to make things up as you go along - but not when it gets embarrassing.

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2021 17:48:07 GMT leftieliberal said:

Justina Miltienyte, an energy policy expert at Uswitch, said the failure of Bulb signalled the "tipping point" of the UK energy crisis.

"Ultimately this demise wasn't caused by a badly run business model. Instead, Bulb was choked off by the way the government decided to structure the current energy market with the price cap."

Some time ago back on the UKPR we discussed that Bulb would likely be the "tipping point" business if/when they failed and the options CON HMG would then face.

However, I would add that if CON HMG had stepped in earlier and either

a/ scrapped (or materially changed) the price cap or
b/ nationalised the whole sector

then in a/ the cost to consumers would have sky rocketed, b/ the cost to tax payers would have sky rocketed.

Kwarteng was perhaps keeping his fingers crossed global gas prices would drop but Bulb were known for not hedging their risk so I'd quibble the 'wasn't caused by a badly run business'. They knew how the price cap worked and chose not to hedge their risk. Ofgem don't disclose the amount of hedging that any specific business or the whole sector has done but they must have 'known' and the news seems to have been 'expected'. We might agree on what should happen next but being CON HMG then more likely a sticking plaster for Winter and back to a 'cartel' in the Spring. How cosy? Hopefully likes of Octopus will ensure the 'cartel' isn't too cosy and becomes more akin to 'supermarket' sector? TBC of course.

LAB had another great opportunity to say what they would do (and must have also expected the possibility Bulb would turn off the lights) and Miliband has IMO had a bacon sandwich moment. I note he hasn't stated the costs of 'his' plan or what he would do come Spring'22.

[leftieliberal]

@tw

I wasn't advocating nationalising the whole sector, just the companies that went under. After all, we did it for the Banks and the UK Government still owns 54.1% of NatWest as of July 2021, 13 years later. Forcing the 'Big Six' companies to take on unprofitable customers, has the ring of Brown 'persuading' Lloyds to take on HBOS, with the results we all know about.

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2021 18:29:30 GMT leftieliberal said:

Apologies for the misrepresentation. I have no problem with either the SoRL (surviving private sector businesses as Supplier of Last Resort) or the SAR (Special Administrator Regime = govt as the SoRL) processes that Ofgem set-up. SoRL was likely to 'max out' as the solution if a big supplier went under - as has now happened. Hence we move to SAR process (a govt SoRL) which we discussed some time ago before today's news.

If CON HMG had stepped in earlier, then see my previous post but adjust for 'partial / larger than needed' nationalisation of the sector. Any prior intervention would have cost either consumers or taxpayers more money than waiting to only step in when required. Some of the very badly run businesses had already failed and now a large 'not very well run' business (IMO) has failed with the investors losing their money (but that has certainly not been a case of "making the cost of living crisis worse" as per Miliband's comments)

I fail to see the similarity to banks as in this case there was a detailed plan in place ready for the possibility of seeing what we are now seeing. The cost to taxpayers will be minimal[1] by comparison to the Financial Crash and the cost of bailing out the banks. 

[1] and minimised by only intervening when they had to and following the pre-existing SoRL and SAR processes.

[jib]

@tw

"LAB had another great opportunity to say what they would do"

I suppose they will just say they would do better!

I suspect Labour will just carry out hit and run politics for a while yet. The Tories are all over the place at the moment.