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Post by jib on Jan 13, 2022 19:02:16 GMT
I suspect the two pretenders, Sunak and Truss, will let the Johnson beast stagger around until at least the local elections.
Whilst waiting for then, the shock of energy bill crisis will have hit home and I suspect the Tories are heading for sub 30% in the polls.
Not a good time to take over and Johnson remains an useful idiot for now.
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Post by alec on Jan 13, 2022 19:03:03 GMT
From turk - "I have never been a Boris fan at the time of his election I described him as a chancer who is a stranger to the truth and would eventually be a problem for his party." This is by no means definitive, and the above statement may indeed be true, but it is of note that for a month either side of Johnson's elevation by Conservatives to the role of PM, our Turk failed to say anything negative about him on the old UKPR, and seemed actually rather supportive of the new PM. Just saying.... |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 19:03:11 GMT
Queen has thrown Randy Andy to the wolves, admitting his guilt.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 13, 2022 19:04:21 GMT
Interesting paper here on the media discourse around herd immunity - journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pgph.0000078&s=09Looking at the UK and US, they find that politicians were mainly responsible for the promotion of herd immunity as a policy goal, against the majority of academics and health professionals. The study found that false balance in the media (eg giving equal status to factually wrong views) was also responsible for promoting herd immunity. And yet South Africa relied upon herd immunity with only 30% of the population vaccinated by deliberate design, to successfully end their omicron outbreak.
Funny how they seem to have done as well as the UK by relying upon herd immunity.
The journal article only looks at media and interested parties promoting certain vews within a country. It fails to make international comparisons, where eg in S Africa, a country did just as well through herd immunity. It might be quite legitimate to look at what sort of organisations within a country promoted what sort of approaches, but its quite uselless in determing who was right. Herd immunity apparently works.
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Post by davwel on Jan 13, 2022 19:04:44 GMT
Could Rees-Mogg`s deliberately insulting remarks about Scotland and its Tory politicians have provoked the special one-off Burning of the Clavie in Burghead next Monday evening. This historic event happens once a year, on New Year`s Eve (Old Calendar), and was a CV casualty last week.
The final fire-raising has a burning cauldron on a tall pole, that would be ideal for mock-ups of JRM and Johnson to be hung. Then Lewes-style, as on Nov 5th, our feelings for rogues could be publicly displayed.
I heard Malcolm Rifkind sharply rebuke JRM on 5 PM, and feel Rees-Mogg ought to apologise for implying in the HoC that Scotland was not a nation, and its Tory leader, Douglas Ross, was a minor figure in the Tory party. As a sometime Tory voter, I am ashamed that arrogant and ignorant politicians like JRM could be allowed to remain uncensored in the party.
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Post by alec on Jan 13, 2022 19:09:20 GMT
Very interesting article here - www.newstatesman.com/health-science/2022/01/quiet-uncritical-obedient-how-the-uks-scientists-failed-the-pandemic-testIt will be too political for some, and would have been better leaving some of that behind to focus on the relationship between science advice and political decisions, but there is much validity in the critique. The governance of the UK scientific advisory system has been poor throughout covid. I did think, watching the press conferences, about the Iraq war events, with military staff standing next to politicians. In my view, for covid, the science advisors shouldn't have appeared in a political context, and this degraded their input. By doing so, they hamstrung their abilities to speak openly about differences of views with the PM. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 19:13:22 GMT
Colin - Barry Gardiner and the Chinese spy ?. Something ? Nothing ? Old news that he was way too close to the Chinese Government before backing Corbyn in the 2016 leadership election gave him a new lease of life as a front bencher. Thanks. Did he know Christine Ching Kui Lee was a Chinese agent engaged in “political interference activities” in the UK on behalf of the communist regime,before she gave him the £500k in donations. ? Or have MI5 only just told him,......or only just realised. ? I am a bit confused. |
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Post by jib on Jan 13, 2022 19:16:45 GMT
Interesting paper here on the media discourse around herd immunity - journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pgph.0000078&s=09Looking at the UK and US, they find that politicians were mainly responsible for the promotion of herd immunity as a policy goal, against the majority of academics and health professionals. The study found that false balance in the media (eg giving equal status to factually wrong views) was also responsible for promoting herd immunity. And yet South Africa relied upon herd immunity with only 30% of the population vaccinated by deliberate design, to successfully end their omicron outbreak.
Funny how they seem to have done as well as the UK by relying upon herd immunity.
That is a misleading and factually incontinent statement. South Africa has vaccinated 70% of those over 60, and 60% of those over 50. They have NOT relied on herd immunity, complete b******s from you as usual. |
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Post by Danny on Jan 13, 2022 19:17:37 GMT
The article criticises politicians for ignoring medical advice to introduce more restrictions this christmas. Yet the politicians were right and the medics wrong. Or at least more right....we still did not need to introduce the mandatory measures we did introduce and some rebel MPs opposed. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 19:21:55 GMT
@jimjam
Some answers from the man himself this evening:-
"In an exclusive interview with Sky News, Brent North MP Barry Gardiner denied he felt "a fool" following the revelation that Christine Lee has been engaged in "political interference activities".
But the ex-Labour frontbencher admitted he was "very angry that somebody tried to use me in that way".
ps-my tags using @jimjam don't work . is this your choice or am I doing something wrong?
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 19:25:04 GMT
Today my youngest son was watching Newsround at school in class. Afterwards the teacher asked them to put their hands up if they thought Johnson should resign - all of the class raised their hands up. We are teaching our children well in the PSRL.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 13, 2022 19:29:22 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 19:42:58 GMT
steveThe sniper kitten in your avatar looks to be aiming at the next but bottom shelf of the drinks rack. Spanish Red wine, I think. Prefers white, I suppose.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 19:44:16 GMT
Today my youngest son was watching Newsround at school in class. Afterwards the teacher asked them to put their hands up if they thought Johnson should resign - all of the class raised their hands up. We are teaching our children well in the PSRL. The Starmer Youthquake rumbles on! |
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 19:48:44 GMT
Colin, I don't use tags and have not knowingly stopped anybody tagging me, I wouldn't do so or at least not currently and it would have to be something major for me to do so.
Re Gardner, I am not across the details as yet but that he was too close to the Chinese Government when Labour was in power was well known.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 19:52:22 GMT
Colin, I don't use tags and have not knowingly stopped anybody tagging me, I wouldn't do so or at least not currently and it would have to be something major for me to do so. |
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 19:52:39 GMT
Trevor,
Fair comment on the Starmer ratings in polls which vary of course; in fact I quoted the R&W which showed him lagging a little behind Labour VI while James showed something more favourable.
Key point for me is that to suggest he is lagging way behind Labour (or some such phrase) was at best exaggerated and at worst inaccurate.
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 19:54:07 GMT
NB) Forgive my straying but when I think of the word Portentous Barry Gardner is one of the politicians who spring to mind.
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Post by eor on Jan 13, 2022 19:55:02 GMT
eorRespectfully disagree, taking your argument a step further are you really saying if the boss held a disco for example at work, to thank his workers, that any court would say that was allowed within the regulations? Then to invite others outside of the workplace to the party makes the situation even more clear cut Worth noting that organisers have been successfully prosecuted for organising events in breach of the rega It would ultimately be for a court to decide, but I have no doubts about it. No I think a disco would inevitably fall foul of other provisions that were in the rules. Similarly taking it back a step, you would presumably not expect essential people to be prosecuted for sharing a lunchbreak - despite it being a social thing that was clearly not allowed and in no sense essential work etc. As you say, respectfully disagree which side of the line we believe a court would likely place this! :-) |
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Post by alec on Jan 13, 2022 20:13:46 GMT
@danny - "And yet South Africa relied upon herd immunity with only 30% of the population vaccinated by deliberate design, to successfully end their omicron outbreak." 'Success' is relative, I guess, and 'deliberate design' is a simple lie. "South Africa, with close to 3.5 million infections and 91,000 deaths, has been the worst-hit country in Africa during the pandemic on both counts..." from www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/31/omicron-fuelled-fourth-covid-wave-has-passed-says-south-africa-as-it-eases-restrictionsAnd this - "Also, considering that only 10% of infections are actually documented in South Africa because so few people are being tested..." from theconversation.com/south-africa-has-changed-tack-on-tackling-covid-why-it-makes-sense-174243If that 10% identification level still holds then SA is still running at well over 1000 cases per million per day. They also had a curfew in place from March 2020 to the end of 2021, plus restrictions on mass gatherings (still in place) and some quite stringent isloation and quarantine rules. They were trying to slow infection throughout, but not very successfully. But why should we let facts get in the way of our imaginings? Did you know there is a place called Hastings in South Africa? Isn't that funny! |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 20:17:24 GMT
Trevor, Fair comment on the Starmer ratings in polls which vary of course; in fact I quoted the R&W which showed him lagging a little behind Labour VI while James showed something more favourable. Key point for me is that to suggest he is lagging way behind Labour (or some such phrase) was at best exaggerated and at worst inaccurate. Of course we never see LOC's post comments that are 'at best exaggerated and at worst inaccurate'  Most of us are guilty of a bit of partisan bias in our comments but there is, IMO, no need to 'troll' folks who bat for the other team with the kind of 'gotcha'[1] obsession that turned UKPR into a cesspit. I used to be 'triggered' by the 'gotcha gang' but now hide their posts. IMO others should look to do the same, so if someone is 'triggering' you then simply hide their posts rather than join in the 'gotcha' and trolling. Beyond 'triggering' risk then if anyone finds little to no value in somebody else's posts (for whatever reason) then I'll repost a 'Public Service Announcement' about what is IMO a great feature of UKPR2. How to hide/block posts from someone, who for whatever reason, you don't wish to read. 1. Click on 'Profile' (blue bar just under Ukpollingreport2) 2. Click on 'Edit Profile' (on right hand side next to send message[2]) 3. Click on 'Privacy' in the next toolbar 4. Under 'Member Block List' enter the name of person whose posts you don't want to read and tick some/all of the options. [1] Judging from some of the replies from folks I haven't blocked then it's many of the 'usual suspects' who, as previously, are 'at best exaggerated and at worst inaccurate' to which I'd add 'selective' with their data and/or don't even bother with sources. [2] If folks want a private chat then they can use the direct messaging function 'send message' (assuming the other person is accepting messages from that person of course!) |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 20:21:46 GMT
ps-my tags using @jimjam don't work . is this your choice or am I doing something wrong? The latter. Use 'reply' rather than 'quick reply' and then select the 'Insert User Link' (5th icon from right) and select the person's 'display name' (eg jimjam) as some folks have different user names. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 20:32:25 GMT
Key point for me is that to suggest he is lagging way behind Labour (or some such phrase) was at best exaggerated and at worst inaccurate. So that reference to Turk is somehow “trolling” a trevor and merits an indignant response. As someone here is fond of saying: “bless.” |
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Post by shevii on Jan 13, 2022 20:38:07 GMT
ps-my tags using @jimjam don't work . is this your choice or am I doing something wrong? The forum has two fields so the name that appears on the posts isn't necessarily the same name that you are registered with for proboards (unless you put that into both fields) but the registered proboard name takes preference on the tags. I guess this is because proboards works for lots of different sites (I already had a proboards account when this was set up) so you can choose a different name depending what site you are on. If there was a proboards for cats I might prefer to be madcatman there and shevii on here. If my proboard account name was shevii then anyone who did @ madcatman to tag me on the cats forum wouldn't work. |
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 20:48:31 GMT
Today my youngest son was watching Newsround at school in class. Afterwards the teacher asked them to put their hands up if they thought Johnson should resign - all of the class raised their hands up. We are teaching our children well in the PSRL. Presumably any child who did not put his hand up would be sent for compulsory re-education? |
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 20:50:20 GMT
@jimjam ps-my tags using @jimjam don't work . is this your choice or am I doing something wrong? It could be that jim jam has a space in his name, and you didn't put one. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 20:58:18 GMT
Today my youngest son was watching Newsround at school in class. Afterwards the teacher asked them to put their hands up if they thought Johnson should resign - all of the class raised their hands up. We are teaching our children well in the PSRL. Presumably any child who did not put his hand up would be sent for compulsory re-education? One certainly hopes so. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 21:04:00 GMT
Presumably any child who did not put his hand up would be sent for compulsory re-education? One certainly hopes so. I gather that "Alpha Males", who seem to believe that everyone in public service from school janitor down to PM are Communists, are recruiting all such children as potential system breakers, and also those who don't raise their hands as potential future leaders - even though all leaders are clearly Communists. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 21:07:19 GMT
oldnat I enjoyed “down to pm”...
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 21:07:34 GMT
A bit of an old chestnut of mine, but I'm musing once again on the fascinating impact of opinion polls on politics. When I say impact, I mean the hares they start running in political parties, the media narrative that they can weave and the events that they can precipitate. These consequences are often much more interesting than the polls themselves. They are, after all, just snapshots of public opinion at a given time and predictors of nothing. They can be inaccurate and unreliable measures too. I'm a bit of a sceptic about micro analysing them and the reading of far too much into sub-question responses, cross breaks and, sometimes, leading-the-witness questions posed. I also worry sometimes, certainly during campaigns and near election time, how they can influence opinion rather than just measure it.
All that said, I think they are enormously important in relation to political mood music. The insouciance, and contempt for Starmer, amongst Tory ranks has arisen in part from the polls seeming to be impervious to government misfortunes. This has been the case almost throughout this Parliament. It sort of underpins the classic Andrew Neil question to opposition politicians; "Well if the Government are so bad, why are they 10% ahead of you in the polls." This gives the governing party confidence and swagger and weakens morale amongst a seemingly flagging opposition. This feeds into the media narrative too. "We're under no immediate threat and laughing all the way to the polling stations" goes the sentiment. "The public are buying us, Starmer is a busted flush......" This may have been contributing to the confidence amongst Tory members, 79% of whom are pretty sure the next election is in the bag. Most Tory MPs did/do too.
However, I sense these recent polls are spooking the Tories and some interesting hares are now running. Mooted leadership challenges, rivals on manoeuvres, friendly press cheerleaders becoming restless and rebellious and MPs looking more closely again at their majority sizes. I thought it was interesting listening to Katy Balls on Newsnight last night. She is a bit of a Downing Street/Tory Party court reporter, like Isobel Hardman, but she has her finger on the pulse of the party, that's clear. She picks up mood quickly and accurately. The recent YouGov showing Labour 10% ahead, she reported, had sent a chill wind through an already nervy and fretful party. Glad confident morning no more. Not quite panic yet, but lots of swirling discontent and division just below the business as usual veneer. They're worried now and worried parties can do strange and kneejerk things.
And of course, politics is not all about the Tory Party. Look at Starmer in the Commons yesterday and the opposition benches behind him. Wind in their sails and belief, at last, that the mountain is scaleable. The transformative effect of opinion polls. They predict nothing, as I say, but they can change the game all the same. And very quickly too.
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