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Post by birdseye on Jan 13, 2022 15:58:45 GMT
Lots of talk here, but my feeling is that Johnson will be exonerated by the enquiry and he'll come out smelling of roses. I think its fairly obvious he'll be exonerated by Sue Grey,or a simple slap on the wrist. You'd be very naive to think the result isn't already set and she hasn't been given her orders...it will definitely smell of something and it won't be roses. Not sure who would "give orders" since Boris is not the head of the civil service and has no disciplinary or career powers over them. Sure she is a state epmoyee but then so are the police and the judges. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 16:23:11 GMT
birdseye
While I don't necessarily agree with pete that Gray has "been given her orders", he didn't say who he thought had been giving the orders. It may well be that senior members of the civil service are concerned that it is they who might have to carry the can for public opprobrium, as their political masters cut them loose. A quiet word of advice may have been given by such a person.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 16:30:46 GMT
I think its fairly obvious he'll be exonerated by Sue Grey,or a simple slap on the wrist. You'd be very naive to think the result isn't already set and she hasn't been given her orders...it will definitely smell of something and it won't be roses. Not sure who would "give orders" since Boris is not the head of the civil service and has no disciplinary or career powers over them. Sure she is a state epmoyee but then so are the police and the judges. Haven't you ever watched 'Yes Minister'? |
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Post by turk on Jan 13, 2022 16:32:36 GMT
Well Boris has made my March prediction seem very unlikely of a return to MoE territory by then. However in my opinion we will be back in that area by summer. Lucky for the Conservatives that the GE is two years away, so any polling at the moment is in the interesting but not vital area. Even in the upcoming council elections few in the Tory party will be expecting anything other than a heavy night of losses. Imo it will be the Libdems who will gain most from those elections,could be a very good night for them.
As to Boris I think he will carry on in post there’s only so much Labour and there friends in the media can make of two year old story and some wall paper.
People are upset with him now quite rightly, but who’s to say what the story will be in a few months after all there are thousands of Russian troops waiting on the boarders of the Ukraine, the likely hood of massive increases in gas prices not only in the U.K. but across Europe and the never ending saga of brexit to contend with and there’s only a certain amount of mileage left in who attended what party a couple of years ago before the public get fed up with hearing about it.
I have never been a Boris fan at the time of his election I described him as a chancer who is a stranger to the truth and would eventually be a problem for his party. Fortunately for the Tories they have some good candidates waiting in the wings I would expect to see one of them in place either at the end of this year or the beginning of 2023. Unless of course Boris decides to resign before that which IMO is not very likely. The lack of any urgency to get rid of him is at the moment because the Tory party had so much internal division over replacing May that they are not yet keen enough to repeat the experience and they don’t yet see a lacklustre Starmer as much of a threat ,given that Labours poll position is due entirely to Boris.
Indeed unless Starmer moves the game forward for Labour it could be a big problem for him when Boris eventually goes ,as whoever replaces him will have a clean sheet because Boris is such a larger than life character he is seen in isolation rather than a party man, leaving it clear for whoever succeeds him to establish there own leadership without being tied to Johnson’s many faults.
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 16:37:38 GMT
Turk,
Did you see the polling from James showing Starmer running ahead of Labour contrary to what you said.
As I said to Colin won't challenge your opinions as they are well opinions but facts is facts as they say.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 16:43:18 GMT
Well Boris has made my March prediction seem very unlikely of a return to MoE territory by then. However in my opinion we will be back in that area by summer. Lucky for the Conservatives that the GE is two years away, so any polling at the moment is in the interesting but not vital area. Even in the upcoming council elections few in the Tory party will be expecting anything other than a heavy night of losses. Imo it will be the Libdems who will gain most from those elections,could be a very good night for them. As to Boris I think he will carry on in post there’s only so much Labour and there friends in the media can make of two year old story and some wall paper. People are upset with him now quite rightly, but who’s to say what the story will be in a few months after all there are thousands of Russian troops waiting on the boarders of the Ukraine, the likely hood of massive increases in gas prices not only in the U.K. but across Europe and the never ending saga of brexit to contend with and there’s only a certain amount of mileage left in who attended what party a couple of years ago before the public get fed up with hearing about it. I have never been a Boris fan at the time of his election I described him as a chancer who is a stranger to the truth and would eventually be a problem for his party. Fortunately for the Tories they have some good candidates waiting in the wings I would expect to see one of them in place either at the end of this year or the beginning of 2023. Unless of course Boris decides to resign before that which IMO is not very likely. The lack of any urgency to get rid of him is at the moment because the Tory party had so much internal division over replacing May that they are not yet keen enough to repeat the experience and they don’t yet see a lacklustre Starmer as much of a threat ,given that Labours poll position is due entirely to Boris. Indeed unless Starmer moves the game forward for Labour it could be a big problem for him when Boris eventually goes ,as whoever replaces him will have a clean sheet because Boris is such a larger than life character he is seen in isolation rather than a party man, leaving it clear for whoever succeeds him to establish there own leadership without being tied to Johnson’s many faults. Boris doesn't believe in anything other than Boris. He is not a man of principle, let alone ideology. He opted for the Brexit camp because he saw this as an opportunity to differentiate himself from Cameron and move closer to the party leadership, which was always his objective. I think Boris will gone for sure before the end of this year, probably well before then. That said, I don't think that any new Tory leader will have an easy time of it. There will be a honeymoon period, but I believe that the trust between the government and the voters has been broken so badly that any new leader will struggle to repair the damage. I agree that the LibDems will gain votes and several more seats, but Labour will also make strong gains in the old 'red wall' seats. I don't believe that we will see the real damage to the Tories until the May local elections. The polls give an indication but nothing detailed. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 16:43:56 GMT
Crossbat11 I get flamed all the time. Par for the course in any internet forum I'm afraid. Sad to see you go. Tankers, my good man, as a few others have already pointed out, I'm not planning to leave any time soon. As I confided to someone yesterday, my abiding weakness is a tendency towards flippancy. This was said about me by many a teacher during my school days. "Hadley's flippant behaviour will be his undoing one day" was one I particularly remember. I was only aged 7 then! My late night ramblings on here when I sometimes become tired and emotional are best ignored. I will swan off again one day no doubt, but political times are getting interesting and entertaining again, so I'll keep on scribbling for now. Nobody should really care one way or the other whether I stay or not anyway. We are but anonymous cyber wafflers after all! My tendency not to take either myself or things too seriously is a strength, I think. Flippancy maybe a weakness. Or an overdone strength. I largely amuse myself with it, although I suspect it probably irritates others! |
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Post by James E on Jan 13, 2022 16:48:05 GMT
Turk, Did you see the polling from James showing Starmer running ahead of Labour contrary to what you said. As I said to Colin won't challenge your opinions as they are well opinions but facts is facts as they say. Thank You, JimJam. this is what I posted yesterday: On the standard 'Best Prime Minsiter' question, Starmer has led Johnson more often, and by wider margins than Labour have led the Tories in voting Intention polls. And looking at polling since Partygate started on 8th Dec, Starmer's leads of 13%, 9% and 7% over Johnson are somewhat ahead of the Labour polling leads which have ranged from 3% to 9%. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Johnson_vs_StarmerTwo of the recent polls are directly comparable to VI: with Survation (10 Dec) Starmer led Johnson 39-30 in the context of a poll giving Lab a 39-32 lead over Con. And with Ipsos Mori (3-10Dec) Starmer led Johnson 44-31 in the context of a VI lead of 39-34. A reminder, too: neither of Starmer's two immediate predecssors achieved a lead even once as 'Best Prime Minister'. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 16:54:33 GMT
Not sure if anyone has posted Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Pulse, taken over the last weekend (January 7 - 10) www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/boris-johnsons-public-favourability-score-falls-lowest-2019-electionNB They show lower net 'favourable' ratings across the board compared to other polling co.s but they have very useful trackers (download the charts) Boris: -36 (-9) CON: -27 (-5) Rishi: -6 (-10) first -ve reading and quite different to other polling co.s Truss: -16 (uc) closer to Rishi than with others Starmer: -18 (-5) LAB: -16 (-4) |
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Post by moby on Jan 13, 2022 16:54:41 GMT
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 16:59:48 GMT
Crossbat11 I get flamed all the time. Par for the course in any internet forum I'm afraid. Sad to see you go. Tankers, my good man, as a few others have already pointed out, I'm not planning to leave any time soon. As I confided to someone yesterday, my abiding weakness is a tendency towards flippancy. This was said about me by many a teacher during my school days. "Hadley's flippant behaviour will be his undoing one day" was one I particularly remember. I was only aged 7 then! My late night ramblings on here when I sometimes become tired and emotional are best ignored. I will swan off again one day no doubt, but political times are getting interesting and entertaining again, so I'll keep on scribbling for now. Nobody should really care one way or the other whether I stay or not anyway. We are but anonymous cyber wafflers after all! My tendency not to take either myself or things too seriously is a strength, I think. Flippancy maybe a weakness. Or an overdone strength. I largely amuse myself with it, although I suspect it probably irritates others! I never find anyone irritating - I accept that people are different and express themselves in different ways. What I really don't appreciate is rudeness, and there is sadly plenty of it on this board from some very precious and think skinned individuals. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 13, 2022 17:08:10 GMT
Zoe today have R for England and Uk down to 0.9
London static on 0.8. NE now only region above 1.0 at 1.1.
Looking separately at government reports of deaths, in London these have approximately doubled from the sustained level over several months of the delta wave. The delta wave background level was considerably below the kent wave. Cases in london either on Zoe or government stats have peaked and look to have fallen back again, so this doubled death rate is not likely to be sustained for very long. We await what plateau level omicron will settle at. Its still entirely possible the effect of omicron will be to end the delta plateau which had been showing lower deaths but sustatined for months. Omicron may therefore end up saving lives so should have been encouraged, not attempts made to keep it out. .
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 17:15:27 GMT
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 17:23:47 GMT
On Newsnight last night, there was an interesting discussion on the political repercussions of partygate featuring, amongst others, Douglas Alexander a veteran, but still youthful looking one, of the New Labour years. A Brownite rather than a Blairite, I always thought him to be an effective Minister in whatever role assigned to him, and an astute politician too. Apart from his cameo appearances in the recent TV documentaries on the Blair/ Brown years, I hadn't seen or heard him for years. A bit of a loss to Labour politics, I think. That said, did his appearance last night signal a tentative return to politics?
Anyway, I thought he was right to say last night that the impending Sue Gray report is largely a sideshow. The facts about the relevant parties and gatherings are largely already in the public domain. Johnson's confessional apology in the Commons has already placed him in attendance at one of them. Arcane definitions of what is a work meeting as opposed to a social gathering are academic. The court of public opinion has reached its verdict and the only remaining suspense is discovering what it's sentence will be. A postponed sentence more than likely with occasional punishment beatings along the way before the eventual denouement in 2024.
Alexander's basic point, and one I agree with, is that it is for the politicians to decide Johnson's immediate fate, not Gray. Her report is a device to buy Johnson time and a screen for his ministers to hide behind in order to say nothing for now. Her findings will be both anodyne and ambivalent. The Met won't get involved either.
The calculation for the Tory Party is when to attempt to ditch Johnson. Johnson's calculation is whether he fights for his political life or accepts his fate.
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Post by davwel on Jan 13, 2022 17:37:10 GMT
What has happened to Starmer`s allegation yesterday that Johnson was guilty of misleading the HoC?
Should the Speaker have been considering it, and perhaps ordering a spell of suspension from the HoC for the PM.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 17:38:08 GMT
The calculation for the Tory Party is when to attempt to ditch Johnson. Johnson's calculation is whether he fights for his political life or accepts his fate. Indeed it's a matter of when rather than whether. I think he'll survive until early summer, and then the knives will come out. A disaster in the May elections will convince the waverers. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 17:42:27 GMT
Barry Gardiner and the Chinese spy ?.
Something ?
Nothing ?
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 17:44:50 GMT
Barry Gardiner and the Chinese spy ?. Something ? Nothing ? Vapour. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 17:50:13 GMT
Turk, Did you see the polling from James showing Starmer running ahead of Labour contrary to what you said. As I said to Colin won't challenge your opinions as they are well opinions but facts is facts as they say. Some 'selective' reporting perhaps? Also check Ipsos Mori (or anyone else) trackers and go back to when Starmer first took over LAB. OK, Spring'20 was 'honeymoon' that all new leaders usually get but Starmer used to get +ve ratings (see slide 12 in Ipsos Mori) and that did give LAB a 'post Corbyn' boost to less -ve favourability (see slide 14). So Starmer used to score significantly higher than LAB in 2020. Also from Ipsos Mori then only 25% (net -10) think Starmer would make a good PM which is better than Boris (at 21%, net -30%) but 'lacklustre' (as turk put it) and from their write-up. 'only a minority of the public think it is likely that the Labour leader will get to No.10 himself'Other polling companies have found similar (ie Starmer doesn't look like 'a PM in waiting'). Starmer has narrowed that gap on the 'PM in waiting' (at least if Boris goes before GE'24) but is still behind Rishi. PS With Lammy of to Ukraine (maybe for a photo opportunity, ala Truss) and Streeting always backing Saj's Covid policies then LAB as 'Red Tories' but with a 'less bad' leader then LAB could win a GE on ABCON votes if Boris stays PM (and low GOTV for CON) but are you/anyone claiming Starmer is an 'asset' for LAB? I doubt many would disagree that Starmer is better than Corbyn and less bad than Boris but that's hardly something to boast about! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 17:50:39 GMT
Barry Gardiner and the Chinese spy ? Is it a low budget James Bond rip off? 😉 |
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Post by eor on Jan 13, 2022 18:11:20 GMT
Agree crossbat11 it'll very likely be a political resolution not a legal one. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 13, 2022 18:20:46 GMT
Barry Gardiner and the Chinese spy ?. Something ? Nothing ? Cameron and the Chinese spy? Dead cat city |
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Post by eor on Jan 13, 2022 18:30:23 GMT
In terms of being ejected tho...I suppose it needs more than just 50% of Tory MPs to want Johnson gone.
Really it needs 50% to want him gone *and* to be pretty confident the outcome of a leadership election wouldn't be less palatable to them than letting Johnson continue for the time being.
Absent a unity candidate, those calculations could potentially protect Johnson well past the point the majority have given up on him.
Which I suppose was the point of the rules - to protect the leader from factional dissent but not requiring any one person to wield the sword in the event there was consensus that someone new was needed!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 13, 2022 18:31:20 GMT
Agree, there is no way that this could be allowed under the rules at the time. Only if your work was essential were you supposed to go to work (if you couldn't work from home). You are there for essential work, not to attend 'bring your own booze' parties, that cannot be described as essential work. In addition as you say other people who didn't even work there also attended the drinks party |
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Post by eor on Jan 13, 2022 18:43:58 GMT
Agree, there is no way that this could be allowed under the rules at the time. Only if your work was essential were you supposed to go to work if you couldn't work from home. You are there for essential work, not to attend 'bring your own booze' parties, that cannot be described as essential work. In addition as you say other people who didn't even work there also attended the drinks party - yes I did note in the same post that individuals who went to the premises for purely this reason would be in breach. neilj "You are there for essential work" - that's the bit I think you're reading into it. Obviously that was the expectation, which is why the public reaction has been so damning. But I'm not at all sure such a thing was actually in the rules, hence suspecting the claim that the party itself didn't break the law may well end up being legally valid, albeit politically useless. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 13, 2022 18:51:11 GMT
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 18:55:56 GMT
Colin - Barry Gardiner and the Chinese spy ?.
Something ?
Nothing ?
Old news that he was way too close to the Chinese Government before backing Corbyn in the 2016 leadership election gave him a new lease of life as a front bencher.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 13, 2022 18:57:35 GMT
eorRespectfully disagree, taking your argument a step further are you really saying if the boss held a disco for example at work, to thank his workers, that any court would say that was allowed within the regulations? Then to invite others outside of the workplace to the party makes the situation even more clear cut Worth noting that organisers have been successfully prosecuted for organising events in breach of the rega It would ultimately be for a court to decide, but I have no doubts about it.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 13, 2022 18:59:01 GMT
News had a report from a hospital which said it had 200 patients ready for discharge, who however had nowhere to go. While they also featured a patient in intensive care who they said could just as well be on an ordinary ward as in intensive care, but there werent any ordinary beds. I experienced this myself with a relative in hospital 5 years ago after an operation, who remained in intesnsive care despite no need for this because there werent any ordinary beds free. It isnt new or unique to this epidemic, its normal. The moral...both numbers for covid patients in hospital and in intensive care are likely to be inflated by people who have recovered but cannot be discharged.
Further reduction in time people have to isolate after suspected or confirmed covid. Makes you wonder why it was ever 10 days if 5 will now do.
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 13, 2022 18:59:14 GMT
Barry Gardiner and the Chinese spy ?. Something ? Nothing ? |
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