8-Jan-2022 : LAB: 39 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 11 / GRN: 5

[Mark]

Westminster voting intention :

LAB: 39% (-)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via@opiniumresearch, 05 - 07 Jan
Chgs. w/ Dec

[jimjam]

Cheers Mark (and James FPT).

Agree with Pete (B) being seen not 'cancelling Christmas' will probably have a seen a few DKs return to the Tory fold; these would have drifted back by the GE anyhow.

[mandolinist]

It seems possible that some don't knows have returned to the Con column because a the increase in cases hasn't yet (?) led to a massive rise in deaths. On the other hand, it is at least a fortnight since the number 10 party stories broke and people have forgotten how angry they were.

[graham]

I suspect that the reduced Labour lead is largely due to day to day discussion of politics - and specifically the scandals engulfing Johnson - having faded into the background since just before Christmas. Normal service has started to resume this week.

[shevii]

There was probably always going to be an unwind from some of the initial "shock" from partygate. I think we have to wait a bit longer to see how much more there might be or if that's it. Probably key element over the next 12 months will be cost of living v payrises.

Johnson is going to survive until May at least I think. Tories had a roughly 4 point polling lead at the locals in 2018 so we're on the edge of noticeable Lab gains or no noticeable Lab gains depending on if Lab lead stays where it is or falls a bit. Also depends if the Tory postal vote is in the mood to "send a message" protest vote and whether the ABT find other options than just Lab. NIC rises will just have hit the pay packet by then.

[Deleted]

Link for Opinium tables can be found on:

www.opinium.com/polling-tables-archive/

Several questions on 'Cost of Living' (see CL2) with large majorities 'aware' of that overall cost of living, energy bills and grocery prices have gone up and 67% (net 59%) expecting a net hit to their disposable income (ie their cost of living to go up by more than their income).

Cutting VAT on energy bills: 48% (net 26%) support with minimal partisan bias. 

[crossbat11]

Jan 8, 2022 20:16:39 GMT Mark said:

Westminster voting intention :

LAB: 39% (-)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via@opiniumresearch, 05 - 07 Jan
Chgs. w/ Dec

Of course, as our old resident guru used to often say, we mustn't be too keen to read too much into one poll, especially one like this where it is twitching well within MOE parameters. As much as we might want to see Tory rewinds and the like, it's quite possible this poll is saying something fairly banal and unexciting. No change and nothing to see here.

More polls required before we conclude that a 2% Tory uptick isn't anything more than statistical noise.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Phew, at last a poll! Well I guess we can conclude that Lab's lead is probably going to level out across the different pollsters  in the 3-4% range and the willingness of '19 Con voters to switch directly to Lab remains limited. If we are to see another significant shift towards Lab in the next few months it is most likely to occur if the cost of living issue starts to realise.

[graham]

Jan 8, 2022 20:33:30 GMT James E said:

mandolinist

Con'Don't Knows' are still high at 21% of their 2019 voters. This compares to 11% of Lab 2019 voters.
An "ICM 50% reversion" of these voters would cut the Labour lead by 3 points.

Quite a few of those voters may be people who voted Tory for the first time in 2019 - largely due to Brexit and Corbyn.

[guymonde]

It's hardly a surprise to see a small uptick in Tory VI given a) He's been on telly all the time pretending to be in charge b) the Coronavirus signs are fair to middling -to the extent there is an NHS crisis it is not being much reported c) Lord Geidt has let him get away with it.
There's still plenty of risk for the govt though: a)partygate/donorgate/general sleazegate has further to run b) cost of living and tax rises are here and increasing in impact, especially from April c) he's lost authority in the parliamentary party d) knives are being sharpened e) the NHS could still fall over.
Johnson also seems to me to have lost his boosterosity when I see him confronted by journos and that is his only real asset.

[crossbat11]

For what it's worth, this was a post I made amidst the dying embers of the now defunct former thread. I wrote it after James E posted tonight's Opinium Poll. I didn't want the words of wisdom contained therein to be criminally overlooked.


"A bit of a steady as she goes poll for Labour and Starmer. He'll be pleased that his party have maintained their VI levels and he himself has kept his personal approval ratings steady too.



Nothing more dramatic than that, really. I've never been one of these "Labour should be at least 15 points ahead, such is the government's disarray etc....."



These current steady 5-6% Labour poll leads need to be looked at the context of double digit arrears in many polls only 4 or 5 months ago.



Another reason to be cheerful for Labour, possibly, is that their admittedly modest lead isn't unwinding quickly. A quick unwind would have suggested the government poll slump was a blip reaction to a one off event. The maintenance over a few weeks of a solid lead across all pollsters suggests a more significant shift in public opinion has taken place."

By the way, there is a very good post from Turk at the end of the previous thread, a vintage "Letter from America" if you like, that I urge everyone to have a look at before it fades, like a lost and forlorn voice, into the thin air.

[oldnat]

Trevs

Thanks for the link. I had bookmarked the wrong Opinium page!

Interesting to see the difference between Opinium's Full Scottish polls on 9 Sep and 22 Dec with their 7 poll crossbreak average (and the pattern of Unionist party support).

Sep Full Scottish - SNP 51% : SCon 21% : SLab 17% : SLD 5%
Dec Full Scottish - SNP 48% : SCon 17% : SLab 22% : SLD 7%
Crossbreak Av - SNP 50% : SCon 27% : SLab 15% : SLD 4%

Every Scots crossbreak shows a higher VI for SCon than for SLab and it might well be that the December poll showed just a temporary revulsion against the Tories among ex-SLab voters who have been voting Tory, and now they have reverted to holding their nose.

For those who like to guess at future W/M GE results from current polling, a reminder that the 2019 election result was

SNP 45% : SCon 25% : SLab 19% : SLD 10%

[oldnat]

CB11

"I didn't want the words of wisdom contained therein to be criminally overlooked."

Or to go pear shaped?

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 21:01:08 GMT crossbat11 said:

Jan 8, 2022 20:16:39 GMT Mark said:

Westminster voting intention :

LAB: 39% (-)
CON: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 11% (-)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via@opiniumresearch, 05 - 07 Jan
Chgs. w/ Dec

Of course, as our old resident guru used to often say, we mustn't be too keen to read too much into one poll, especially one like this where it is twitching well within MOE parameters. As much as we might want to see Tory rewinds and the like, it's quite possible this poll is saying something fairly banal and unexciting. No change and nothing to see here.

More polls required before we conclude that a 2% Tory uptick isn't anything more than statistical noise.

You say that Battso but, in analytical terms surely it’s good to see the Tories beginning to recover in the polls?

 And don’t you think that the two main parties should be pretty even by March?

[oldnat]

"Sinn Fein at 33%, up two points, in tomorrow's Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll. FG at 23%, down two points, FF 19% - up two."

[jimjam]

The direct Tory 2019 to Lab switching at by my rough calcs at a net swing of just under 1.5%.

I agree with Shevii about May's locals being a key crux point for Johnson, unless, there is some major revelation before then which is always possible.

[steamdrivenandy]

When did Crofty become our favourite Texan Tory?

I'm having trouble visualising an English farmer that thinks he's a Turk tilling the soil in Texas. Tatty Barbour, flat cap, leather chaps over John Deere overalls, wellingtons with spurs, red neckerchief

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 20:47:24 GMT shevii said:

Johnson is going to survive until May at least I think...

Of note then in latest Opinium (Q:V006) Boris approval rating 'boost' is all from CON VI

Overall net -24 (+7)
CON VI: +64 (+15)

If we can return to Covid Plan A towards end of the month then the CRG faction will have nothing to object about and might go the way of ERG. Other issues might cause division within CON MPs (eg how to assist consumers and businesses with impact of global energy prices and how to pay for that) and it is possible Rishi helps/hinders VI into May LEs (eg a well timed announcement that VAT will be cut on energy bills that will be funded by the Magic Money Tree (and fiscal drag) v 'tough it out')

Anyway, with his approval returning from CON VI and possibly less internal division then a VoNC challenge certainly seems less likely for now. As mentioned many times previously then Brand Rishi, Brand Truss, etc would likely prefer Boris to stay where he is until later in 2022 but that also means they might miss their opportunity and Boris stays leader+PM into GE'24 

[Deleted]

SDA

When did you achieve four star status? I.e. At what figure?

Trying to work out if it’s worth trying for it during my week’s notice which, apparently, I have to work whilst still writing. Thought I might as well try to get something tangible out of it - and an extra star would be just the wee jobbie (as Old Nat would say.)

[James E]

@jimjam

For those who express a voting intention (so excl DontKnows) it's 9% of Cons to Lab, and 1% the other way.

I make that 3.7% of direct swing [(45% x 0.09) - (33% x 0.01) ]

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 21:19:36 GMT oldnat said:

CB11

"I didn't want the words of wisdom contained therein to be criminally overlooked."

Or to go pear shaped?

There would certainly be no criminal case that a fair-minded jury would convict on.

Or, probably, even an unfair one.

[oldnat]

The potential fallout from this proposal might be interesting - no matter how sensible the decision might be from a financial point of view.

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 21:42:24 GMT @tw said:

Jan 8, 2022 20:47:24 GMT shevii said:

Johnson is going to survive until May at least I think...

Of note then in latest Opinium (Q:V006) Boris approval rating 'boost' is all from CON VI

Overall net -24 (+7)
CON VI: +64 (+15)

If we can return to Covid Plan A towards end of the month then the CRG faction will have nothing to object about and might go the way of ERG. Other issues might cause division within CON MPs (eg how to assist consumers and businesses with impact of global energy prices and how to pay for that) and it is possible Rishi helps/hinders VI into May LEs (eg a well timed announcement that VAT will be cut on energy bills that will be funded by the Magic Money Tree (and fiscal drag) v 'tough it out')

Anyway, with his approval returning from CON VI and possibly less internal division then a VoNC challenge certainly seems less likely for now. As mentioned many times previously then Brand Rishi, Brand Truss, etc would likely prefer Boris to stay where he is until later in 2022 but that also means they might miss their opportunity and Boris stays leader+PM into GE'24 

Lazarus 2.   ?   

[jimjam]

James - I used the 7% but the swing is half so 1.85% excluding DKs I think.

Closes the gap OTBE by 3.7%, though, as you suggest.

My view is that Lab need this at 6% (swing 3) with differential turnout likely imo to close the gap by a few more points to to make a Tory PM improbable.

[shevii]

Jan 8, 2022 21:42:24 GMT @tw said:

Jan 8, 2022 20:47:24 GMT shevii said:

and it is possible Rishi helps/hinders VI into May LEs (eg a well timed announcement that VAT will be cut on energy bills that will be funded by the Magic Money Tree (and fiscal drag) v 'tough it out')

Sunak probably wants to hand out the sweeties if/when he becomes PM!  I doubt he would deliberately want to send Johnson into exile and some of that flak might hit him anyway, but if you've only got one set of sweeties to hand out better to do it when you're in charge.

[oldnat]

Initial response from Sturgeon to the Times story on ending free LFDs -

"If UK government is really considering this (scotgov certainly not signed up to it) it is utterly wrongheaded. Hard to imagine much that would be less helpful to trying to ‘live with’ Covid."

Along with the unilateral decision by UKGE to abandon testing before air flights (which forced Welsh & Scottish governments into doing the same, despite "4 nations" talks on it going on), the political positioning seems likely to be from ScotGov (and perhaps also, to an extent, from WelshGov) - "We really tried to get a 4 nations approach to work, but UKGE constantly insisted on making unilateral decisions, and forcing the rest of us to comply. This is no longer a workable Union."

If that is the intention, then it is a strategy that might (or might not) work, but UKGE does not appear to be making it easy for the supporters of UK Union  in Scotland, to argue their case.

EDIT - and more from Sturgeon "Better question: What happens via Barnett Formula to @scotgov funding if UK government axes free tests?

Testing so vital, we’d have to consider continued funding but it would then come from existing budgets.

More evidence that current UK funding rules not fit for purpose"

[steamdrivenandy]

Jan 8, 2022 21:43:31 GMT @crofty said:

SDA

When did you achieve four star status? I.e. At what figure?

Trying to work out if it’s worth trying for it during my week’s notice which, apparently, I have to work whilst still writing. Thought I might as well try to get something tangible out of it - and an extra star would be just the wee jobbie (as Old Nat would say.)

It was so long ago that I can't remember, but logic would say 71 more posts and you're there. I can't say that anything tangible arises, not even a wee jobbie. Although it was my birthday around the same time as I crested the hump and since you're asking I got a pair of socks, a new dressing gown, that's not to say that the socks were old, an Amazon vulture, a book on Spitfires and one by Clarkson, plus some disturbingly good chocolates.

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 21:54:12 GMT colin said:

Lazarus 2.   

Tactically tricky for Rishi. Brand Truss is still on populist 'manoeuvres' so he might want to be Lazarus, Saint Rishi of Furlough moving on to ease the pain on energy bill rises, rather than allow Brand Truss to win over more CON MPs (and CON members) by taking up the 'populist' RoC chant for tax cuts. However if he plays Saint Rishi then that likely helps raise Boris from his near (political) death in the ditch Boris dug for himself which means Boris is more likely to survive into GE'24 - when Rishi might then battle Truss for the job of LOTO 

Rishi the good fiscal conservative might prefer to 'tough it out' rather than shake more debt from the MMT. I have mixed n=1 views on VAT cuts for 'gen.pub' energy bills but do think businesses need a bit of temporary help (to 'level the playing field' with other countries who have helped businesses out).

If Boris becomes a dead horse beyond saving later in 2022 then he can take a kicking for all the bad stuff (long list!) and Rishi can get the candy jar out for his own benefit as he plots his move from #11 to #10? So for someone like myself that wants to see Boris replaced before next GE then I wouldn't be upset to see minimal 'help' from Rishi; a bad set of LEs; and some new 'gotchas' later in 2022 to finish him off whilst there is still plenty of time ahead of GE'24 (but I don't want to see Brand Truss given 'opportunities). That would mean LAB getting a larger lead in the polls this year of course but the only poll that matters is the one on GE day 

[alec]

@tw - "...eg a well timed announcement that VAT will be cut on energy bills that will be funded by the Magic Money Tree.."

You have an interest in the energy markets, we've been led to believe, so suggesting as you appear to do so, that cutting VAT on energy bills will be seen as a 'well timed announcement' next spring is somewhat surprising.

Market prices suggest energy bills are going to rise by 50%, with much bigger rises for those coming off long term fixed deals. (My supplier has told me to expect my bills to more than double after my two year fix ends, although I'm modestly optimistic prices will ease before that happens at the back end of the year).

Dropping the 5% VAT will be seen as insulting if nothing else is done, and would also be a very badly targeted policy.

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 22:22:02 GMT @tw said:

Jan 8, 2022 21:54:12 GMT colin said:

Lazarus 2.   

Tactically tricky for Rishi. Brand Truss is still on populist 'manoeuvres' so he might want to be Lazarus, Saint Rishi of Furlough moving on to ease the pain on energy bill rises, rather than allow Brand Truss to win over more CON MPs (and CON members) by taking up the 'populist' RoC chant for tax cuts. However if he plays Saint Rishi then that likely helps raise Boris from his near (political) death in the ditch Boris dug for himself which means Boris is more likely to survive into GE'24 - when Rishi might then battle Truss for the job of LOTO 

Rishi the good fiscal conservative might prefer to 'tough it out' rather than shake more debt from the MMT. I have mixed n=1 views on VAT cuts for 'gen.pub' energy bills but do think businesses need a bit of temporary help (to 'level the playing field' with other countries who have helped businesses out).

If Boris becomes a dead horse beyond saving later in 2022 then he can take a kicking for all the bad stuff (long list!) and Rishi can get the candy jar out for his own benefit as he plots his move from #11 to #10? So for someone like myself that wants to see Boris replaced before next GE then I wouldn't be upset to see minimal 'help' from Rishi; a bad set of LEs; and some new 'gotchas' later in 2022 to finish him off whilst there is still plenty of time ahead of GE'24 (but I don't want to see Brand Truss given 'opportunities). That would mean LAB getting a larger lead in the polls this year of course but the only poll that matters is the one on GE day 

All through a fog darkly for me @tw. Will wait for the winner to stagger into view at some point.

Re Energy prices-Im quite twitchy about it. Do they really understand the size of this problem.? I've just done my budget for this year and Gas/Elec has moved up the ranks of significant spend. As far as I can tell anyway !-like many folks I have opted for Variable Tariff-best new Fix was +£1500 pa. That hurts.
Rishi needs to get his antennae really well tuned on this one.