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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 21:10:40 GMT
Actually, maybe someone knows if there have been studies on children’s reactions to such questions?
Depending on age I imagine that most children would instinctively figure out where the majority looked like going and fit in accordingly.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 21:26:36 GMT
crofty
"I imagine that most children would instinctively figure out where the majority looked like going and fit in accordingly."
Yep. Kids are rather like adults, in that respect.
Which chimes rather well with CB11's observations on the effects of polling.
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 13, 2022 21:28:03 GMT
A bit of an old chestnut of mine, but I'm musing once again on the fascinating impact of opinion polls on politics. When I say impact, I mean the hares they start running in political parties, the media narrative that they can weave and the events that they can precipitate. These consequences are often much more interesting than the polls themselves. They are, after all, just snapshots of public opinion at a given time and predictors of nothing. They can be inaccurate and unreliable measures too. I'm a bit of a sceptic about micro analysing them and the reading of far too much into sub-question responses, cross breaks and, sometimes, leading-the-witness questions posed. I also worry sometimes, certainly during campaigns and near election time, how they can influence opinion rather than just measure it. All that said, I think they are enormously important in relation to political mood music. The insouciance, and contempt for Starmer, amongst Tory ranks has arisen in part from the polls seeming to be impervious to government misfortunes. This has been the case almost throughout this Parliament. It sort of underpins the classic Andrew Neil question to opposition politicians; "Well if the Government are so bad, why are they 10% ahead of you in the polls." This gives the governing party confidence and swagger and weakens morale amongst a seemingly flagging opposition. This feeds into the media narrative too. "We're under no immediate threat and laughing all the way to the polling stations" goes the sentiment. "The public are buying us, Starmer is a busted flush......" This may have been contributing to the confidence amongst Tory members, 79% of whom are pretty sure the next election is in the bag. Most Tory MPs did/do too. However, I sense these recent polls are spooking the Tories and some interesting hares are now running. Mooted leadership challenges, rivals on manoeuvres, friendly press cheerleaders becoming restless and rebellious and MPs looking more closely again at their majority sizes. I thought it was interesting listening to Katy Balls on Newsnight last night. She is a bit of a Downing Street/Tory Party court reporter, like Isobel Hardman, but she has her finger on the pulse of the party, that's clear. She picks up mood quickly and accurately. The recent YouGov showing Labour 10% ahead, she reported, had sent a chill wind through an already nervy and fretful party. Glad confident morning no more. Not quite panic yet, but lots of swirling discontent and division just below the business as usual veneer. They're worried now and worried parties can do strange and kneejerk things. And of course, politics is not all about the Tory Party. Look at Starmer in the Commons yesterday and the opposition benches behind him. Wind in their sails and belief, at last, that the mountain is scaleable. The transformative effect of opinion polls. They predict nothing, as I say, but they can change the game all the same. And very quickly too. I too am interested in the push me/pull me nature of the polls. I think it has something to do with the way a zeitgeist becomes entrenched, and how difficult it can be to change the nature of the discourse. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 21:32:02 GMT
Today my youngest son was watching Newsround at school in class. Afterwards the teacher asked them to put their hands up if they thought Johnson should resign - all of the class raised their hands up. We are teaching our children well in the PSRL. The Starmer Youthquake rumbles on! |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 21:33:39 GMT
mercian Presumably any child who did not put his hand up would be sent for compulsory re-education?No its the parents who get sent away.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 21:36:15 GMT
@jimjam ps-my tags using @jimjam don't work . is this your choice or am I doing something wrong? It could be that jim jam has a space in his name, and you didn't put one. You put jimgarner after @. If it was mentioned earlier apologies - catching up. |
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Post by EmCat on Jan 13, 2022 21:40:24 GMT
Colin, I don't use tags and have not knowingly stopped anybody tagging me, I wouldn't do so or at least not currently and it would have to be something major for me to do so. If you hover over a display name, then you will see the user name, which is the one that works with @ jimjam is only the display name. (not sure how that will work if using a phone rather than a 'pooter) |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 21:46:24 GMT
lululemon
"Unfortunately he will have to wait about nine years before any of them can vote."
That period of exclusion from participation in democracy can be reduced by moving the family to the Isle of Man, Scotland or Wales.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jan 13, 2022 21:47:09 GMT
I had a problem trying to tag you as well - I think its because there is a gap in your name. If you hover over a display name, then you will see the user name, which is the one that works with @ jimjam is only the display name. (not sure how that will work if using a phone rather than a 'pooter) Just quickly - if you click on the display name it’ll take you to the profile summary page where it shows the username on the right, next to the online status. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 21:50:42 GMT
oldnat That period of exclusion from participation in democracy can be reduced by moving the family to the Isle of Man, Scotland or Wales.What are these weird lands you speak of - civilisation ends at the M25😉
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 21:55:04 GMT
lululemon "What are these weird lands you speak of - civilisation ends at the M25" It does indeed. Civilised society has created the M25 as a border to contain the uncivilised within it. That's why the UK Parliament is imprisoned at the very centre of barbarism.  |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 21:58:41 GMT
oldnat That period of exclusion from participation in democracy can be reduced by moving the family to the Isle of Man, Scotland or Wales.What are these weird lands you speak of - civilisation ends at the M25😉 I don't know about you but I've gone round and round the M25 and I've never found the end. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 21:59:50 GMT
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 22:00:57 GMT
oldnat It does indeed. Civilised society has created the M25 as a border to contain the uncivilised within it. That's why the UK Parliament is imprisoned at the very centre of barbarismYes cower before our hordes of prosecco drinking, brioche eating, Guardian reading woke warriors - we are coming!!!!!
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 22:01:16 GMT
CB,
I think your mood swing notion is reflected in YG tending to show moves more than other pollsters as they pick up 'more sail with the wind' sentiment.
My suspicion is that these are habitual non-voters who for some reason, even on anonymous panels maybe because they think they won't get their vouchers or some such, say they will vote when they wont and go with the prevailing narrative for their VI. This could be Tories on the up due to the vaccine bounce just as much as the opposite now.
YGs greater variance (other than that perhaps due the Green and RUK prompting which is consistent) doesn't occur during polldrums but when a shift (temporary or otherwise) is in play.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 22:05:31 GMT
When DRoss spoke to Johnson to suggest he resign, it is reported that Johnson told him that there was more to come.
Now -
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Post by EmCat on Jan 13, 2022 22:06:10 GMT
A bit of an old chestnut of mine, but I'm musing once again on the fascinating impact of opinion polls on politics. When I say impact, I mean the hares they start running in political parties, the media narrative that they can weave and the events that they can precipitate. These consequences are often much more interesting than the polls themselves. All that said, I think they are enormously important in relation to political mood music. However, I sense these recent polls are spooking the Tories and some interesting hares are now running. Mooted leadership challenges, rivals on manoeuvres, friendly press cheerleaders becoming restless and rebellious and MPs looking more closely again at their majority sizes. Not quite panic yet, but lots of swirling discontent and division just below the business as usual veneer. They're worried now and worried parties can do strange and kneejerk things. And of course, politics is not all about the Tory Party. The transformative effect of opinion polls. They predict nothing, as I say, but they can change the game all the same. And very quickly too. A very interesting assessment. One of the polls that @tw had posted yesterday had asked for how much people followed / were aware of (or not) different topics. What was interesting was that one of the questions was about Owen Paterson and lobbying. The number who weren't aware of it was around 25%, which is a gut feeling of the level of engagement of political stories for those who don't "do" politics. Given most stories then would expect to have c.20% of the general public not aware, then it was truly surprising that the Partygate had only around 4% who were unaware of it. Thus, all the stories that are significantly less "not aware of" than the Owen Paterson one are highly likely to have escaped the Westminster bubble, and cut through to the wider audience. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 22:08:22 GMT
oldnat It does indeed. Civilised society has created the M25 as a border to contain the uncivilised within it. That's why the UK Parliament is imprisoned at the very centre of barbarismYes cower before our hordes of prosecco drinking, brioche eating, Guardian reading woke warriors - we are coming!!!!! Oh wow. If I'd known about all that in 1993 I'd not have dragged the family to North Yorkshire. Riles me when I look up the value of our old house in Kings Langley on Zoopla which we sold for £200k in '93, now valued at £1.043m Current Staffordshire house value at £356k. How are the mighty fallen. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 22:16:26 GMT
This:
“ But the military titles and royal roles will go to other members of the family, which means they won't be coming back to Prince Andrew whatever the outcome. ”
......... bit of news is rather laughable.
Military titles can be swapped around the royal family??
Do they sit around in their posh armchairs asking if anyone has got a spare navy title they want to hand over in return for an army one? It just sounds weird. Well, the whole thing about someone purportedly being “royal” is weird. In a properly equal society we would ALL be royal and get to wave at people we didn’t know.
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 22:18:28 GMT
oldnat It does indeed. Civilised society has created the M25 as a border to contain the uncivilised within it. That's why the UK Parliament is imprisoned at the very centre of barbarismYes cower before our hordes of prosecco drinking, brioche eating, Guardian reading woke warriors - we are coming!!!!! Oh wow. If I'd known about all that in 1993 I'd not have dragged the family to North Yorkshire. Riles me when I look up the value of our old house in Kings Langley on Zoopla which we sold for £200k in '93, now valued at £1.043m Current Staffordshire house value at £356k. How are the mighty fallen. I bet it's a bigger house though. Nicer place too. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 22:21:24 GMT
crofty I wave at people I don't know - because I think they are someone I'm supposed to know but have forgotten. Then I find they are waving to someone behind me.  |
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Post by turk on Jan 13, 2022 22:28:15 GMT
Crossbat11.
What you need to focus on is midterm polling when the government or should I say the current PM is under pressure can lead to a artificial polling results. Much like the huge leads the Tory party enjoyed during the first year of the Pandemic were artificial exaggerated .
As you mentioned the Yougov poll which showed the highest lead for Labour since 2013. But as the Tories are still in power that really didn’t mean very much then and I don’t think it means much now.
I concede that if we were only a few months out from a GE then the Tories could be in serious trouble but that isn’t the case and I suspect that all the predictable chatter from within the Tory party will not yet amount to a row of beans. It’s more likely at the moment that Boris will resign after the enquiry is published if and only if it’s particularly critical of him. If the party wants a new leader that’s not likely to happen till the end or beginning of next year. That would leave over a year before the next GE for the new leader to make there mark.
However having said all of that I would not be in the least surprised to see Johnson fighting the next GE as PM.
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Post by alec on Jan 13, 2022 22:33:01 GMT
@tw - "Most of us are guilty of a bit of partisan bias in our comments but there is, IMO, no need to 'troll' folks who bat for the other team with the kind of 'gotcha'[1] obsession that turned UKPR into a cesspit."
Please don't attempt to rewrite history. Pointing out where posters like you made numerous mistakes and changed tack wasn't what sometimes turned UKPR into a cesspit.
I'll let you guess what the real reason for that was. Please don't do it here.
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 22:34:04 GMT
If that post from Oldnat about the boozy party at No 10 the night before Philip's funeral is true, and hits the papers tomorrow I'd be surprised to see him last the day! A shame IMO because his ebullience and positivity was such a breath of fresh air compared to other politicians.
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Jan 13, 2022 22:34:57 GMT
I mentioned yesterday morning how fortuitous a period of enforced reflection might prove for Mr Johnson.
Having apparently failed to reassure the country, and digging an even deeper ditch for his acolytes to try to pull him out of without falling in themselves, it looks like all he has left is playing the frit card. This, despite the science he's chosen to listen to saying he should jolly well be visiting hospitals and shaking hands with everyone until he works out how to draw an extra line on a test using one of Wilfred's crayons, a red one, preferably, and going back to running the country after five days instead of seven.
I literally cannot wait to see how his A Team handle this while he's away. The only line they have so far doesn't work, and the story isn't going away.
I can picture Brenda waking up this morning and realising she'd never have a better day to bury news about stripping her favourite son of everything he's never worked for, like a dream come true. She probably has the intelligence to remember the opprobrium she received when the MSM accused her of indifference to the feelings of people who never knew Diana when she took herself off for a week after the crash. No matter what's going on in the no 11 flat, this isn't going to play well.
The only thing I can imagine saving him is ending up in hospital again. He looked ghastly at the Wednesday Event yesterday, he must surely be considering playing the health card and getting out?
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 22:36:01 GMT
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Post by hireton on Jan 13, 2022 22:37:06 GMT
Johnson and his supporters will be hoping that this isn't commonplace in local Tory Party associations:
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Post by alec on Jan 13, 2022 22:37:18 GMT
@crofty - "Do they sit around in their posh armchairs asking if anyone has got a spare navy title they want to hand over in return for an army one?"
It's much more complicated than that. You have to take turns and then decide whether you want to buy the title. You can even buy houses and hotels to build on some of the titles, so long as you don't land on the square marked 'sex offender accusation', but Madge always plays the banker so not much gets past her.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 22:39:18 GMT
Definitely not larger, but there again, we purposely downsized 18 months ago and have lived in four other houses since 1993 and the long trek north. Weirdly we've ended up about 300yds from the West Coast Main Line on its way north to Crewe. When we lived down south we were within earshot of the same WCML as it ran through the Gade Valley below Langley Hill. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 22:42:31 GMT
ED
"after five days instead of seven"
Depending on which day is counted as day 1, and when on last day of isolation you take a negative test, the English 5 is the Scots 7!
Still, good to see that UKGE stayed a bit more cautious than ScotGov for a week or so.
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