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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 13:37:45 GMT
When Major took over from Thatcher Labour was still well ahead in the polls, he had to delay. Within a few days of Major becoming PM at the end of Npvember 1990 there were polls giving the Tories leads as high as 11% and 13%. He could have called an election in Spring 1991 I suppose. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 13:42:24 GMT
What has surprised me, so far, is that no other cabinet ministers, or even junior ministers have been implicated in Partygate (of whichever number). Surely there'd be the odd sycphantic minister crawling around such events?
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Post by graham on Jan 13, 2022 13:43:35 GMT
Within a few days of Major becoming PM at the end of Npvember 1990 there were polls giving the Tories leads as high as 11% and 13%. He could have called an election in Spring 1991 I suppose. That would have been an option , but honeymoon bounces tend not to be particularly stable or longlasting. Major did seriously consider holding an election in Autumn 1991. |
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Post by statgeek on Jan 13, 2022 13:44:33 GMT
Could I ask what polling that map is based on please, Statgeek.? Electoral Calculus prediction based on YG poll today. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 13, 2022 13:46:08 GMT
I'd just like to announce that I won't be posting again. I'm thoroughly fed up with being personally attacked and ridiculed by a certain number of, frankly, sanctimonious and po faced posters. It's a shame because I was rather enjoying being back and communing with a few old friends, but enough is enough. Good luck everybody and I hope all your dreams come true. I'm sorry I never became a Senior Member because I was looking forward to the accolade but when you've got to go, well, you've got to go. I won't say anymore because I might get emotional. Goodbye. Well as Crossbat is leaving, that means his Villa avatar is up for sale. Come on now, who wants to buy the Villa? Mark can offer you a good deal!  [addition] In the time I was off-ine, he both left and returned. That's the trouble with Pears, no consistency.  |
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 13:49:13 GMT
Crossbat11
I get flamed all the time. Par for the course in any internet forum I'm afraid. Sad to see you go.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jan 13, 2022 13:52:14 GMT
As someone else pointed out elsewhere, that map shows a very interesting point. There are zero Tory MPs in Scotland or Wales (NI might have one or two in spirit, if we're being objective). Perhaps it's finally time for the 'Unionist' part of their title to be reconsidered. I imagine Ross, with Ruthie's support is thinking hard about a separate Scottish Conservative party, given their current electability. At what point does their manic legwork translate from kinetic to electrical energy and power the light-bulb of realisation on the irony of the Scottish Tories seeking separation to stay electable in a country where they advocate non-separation? A new Scottish Unionist Party? Can Con/Lab/Lib in Scotland survive the exodus? Could I ask what polling that map is based on please, Statgeek.? The results in England are no less remarkable than those in Scotland and Wales, with Labour winning all but one seat right across the North, and in the South we have Labour gains in rural Norfolk, Devon, Huntingdon and even the Isle of Wight. @james E Just looked closely at that map and realised it shows the seat I currently live in, Wantage (a rural Oxfordshire seat and Ed Vaizey's old stomping ground) going Lab! It's been Tory since it was created in '83 and LDs were in second place in 2019 (though not 17) It also shows Wokingham (the execrable Redwood's constituency) going yellow but alas not Newbury that was yellow for many years till 2005 and was heavily remain leaning. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 13:55:55 GMT
Within a few days of Major becoming PM at the end of Npvember 1990 there were polls giving the Tories leads as high as 11% and 13%. This was followed in early 1991 by a Gulf War 1 boost for the new PM. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 13:57:19 GMT
Crossbat11 I get flamed all the time. Par for the course in any internet forum I'm afraid. Sad to see you go. Stop playing up to him Tankers, He's got no more intention of going than Villa have of winning the FA Cup this year. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 14:02:38 GMT
Steve
Thanks for the summary of police powers on Crown property. Since the Met did publish an explanation as to why they were not investigating the party allegations (eor please note), your surmise as to the reasons for their failure to include that may well be correct.
I recently suggested that if the Gray report does include highly critical conclusions, then the Met may be called in and the enquiry stopped.
I now note that this was written into the terms of the investigation.
"As with all internal investigations, if during the course of the work any evidence
emerges of behaviour that is potentially a criminal offence, the matter will be referred
to the police and the Cabinet Office’s work may be paused. Matters relating to
adherence to the law are properly for the police to investigate and the Cabinet Office
will liaise with them as appropriate.
Any matters relating to the conduct of Ministers should follow the process set out in
the Ministerial Code in the normal way."
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1039751/Terms_of_Reference_-_Cabinet_Secretary_Investigations_-_December_2021.docx.pdf
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 14:14:53 GMT
"As with all internal investigations, if during the course of the work any evidence
emerges of behaviour that is potentially a criminal offence, the matter will be referred
to the police and the Cabinet Office’s work may be paused. Matters relating to
adherence to the law are properly for the police to investigate and the Cabinet Office
will liaise with them as appropriate.
That, presumably, means that so far the investigation hasn't concluded that there's likely to have been a criminal offence committed. If it is paused for a criminal investigation, that can be portrayed as a kick into the long grass, or the civil service not wanting to get blood on their hands and who would be the potential criminals? All the party attendees red, white or rose, or just the organisers? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 14:18:37 GMT
Dunno if anyone else gets Labour List stuff on a regular basis but Sienna Rodgers writing always interests me.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 14:25:46 GMT
Dunno if anyone else gets Labour List stuff on a regular basis but Sienna Rodgers writing always interests me. Sienna Miller interests me more.  |
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Post by eor on Jan 13, 2022 14:28:40 GMT
neilj Thanks for your reply on the legal status. To me you've spelled out comprehensively why it is being viewed so badly, and I agree with others who've said that whatever the legal status is eventually found to be won't change that. But on the narrow point I was making, I don't think it follows from what you've said that it was clearly against the law as the stuff about where you can go and for what purpose surely becomes moot once you're already (lawfully) at work. To take a much milder example - it was clearly not allowed for people from different households to meet up for lunch, in any setting. But as I understand it people at work could lunch together in their canteen as long as that were possible whilst complying with distancing, hygiene etc. And yes I think that a manager saying "please join us in this part of the building at the end of the day so we can Appreciate your hard work" would count as "work" in any number of ways - for example both HR and an Employment Tribunal would very much consider what was said and done there to be in their jurisdiction. The purpose being recreational doesn't change that any more than if you gather in a meeting room for a leaving speech or to give someone a birthday present. So unless there was something in the COVID rules at that time that expressly said people within in a workspace must not have social contact even with distancing etc then I suspect the end result will be that the thing itself was not illegal, tho any individuals who travelled there just to take part would be in breach themselves. (Tho it will make zero difference politically if that is the case because people are upset about the behaviour and the attitude it conveys, having a legal excuse to do what everyone else couldn't won't make it any better at all! :-) )
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jan 13, 2022 14:29:51 GMT
graham
Anent SLab making gains in Scotland
I would anticipate that as well. In Kirkcaldy and in East Lothian, the sitting Alba MPs are likely to split the pro-indy vote and allow SLab to gat most votes.
The idea of the SNP getting all the seats is unlikely, as there are established patterns of tactical voting now, after a period in which UK Unionist voters were unclear as to which would be the main ABS party. Edinburgh South very probable to return Murray as a "Better Together" MP, while Lamont will probably do the same in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk.
However, that assumes no change in the balance of opinion in Scotland on indy remaining constant up to the next UK GE. With the introduction of a Referendum Bill this year, that seems unlikely, though which way opinion might swing is anybody's guess!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Statgeek
SNP 55% from a wee sample (143) is at the high end, but not that much out of the ordinary.
The YG 7 poll crossbreak average is currently 47% (range 38-55). Since there are likely to be very few SGP candidates at a UK GE and we know from preferential voting returns that SGP voters mainly have SNP as their 2nd preference, I find a more useful indicator to be the combined SNP/SGP vote. That currently stands at an average of 50% (range 48-56) being over 50% on 3/7 polls - along with the latest YG Full Scottish poll.
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Post by eor on Jan 13, 2022 14:32:16 GMT
hireton - thanks for the response on my questions around SCON, that is clearer now.
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Post by chrisaberavon on Jan 13, 2022 14:35:43 GMT
Good Afternoon all, sunny here.
CROSSBAT 11. I was amazed how good Villa were at OT, I expect a villan win in the PL match. Did you read David Aaronovitch's article this morning; very informative and correct, iMO. I think Starmer would welcome a challenge from a Corbyn Party of the Left (would that be a split from The People's Assembly led by Laura Piddock of Durham NW?)
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Post by pete on Jan 13, 2022 15:01:16 GMT
Lots of talk here, but my feeling is that Johnson will be exonerated by the enquiry and he'll come out smelling of roses. I think its fairly obvious he'll be exonerated by Sue Grey,or a simple slap on the wrist. You'd be very naive to think the result isn't already set and she hasn't been given her orders...it will definitely smell of something and it won't be roses. |
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Post by pete on Jan 13, 2022 15:09:40 GMT
Dead cat story today. The Chinese are trying to influence MPs (a Labour MP). A story broken in 2017 by the Times I believe.
Still, no mention of the Russians getting there before the Chinese.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 15:12:05 GMT
Lots of talk here, but my feeling is that Johnson will be exonerated by the enquiry and he'll come out smelling of roses. I think its fairly obvious he'll be exonerated by Sue Grey,or a simple slap on the wrist. You'd be very naive to think the result isn't already set and she hasn't been given her orders...it will definitely smell of something and it won't be roses. My feeling is that he will be criticised (obviously, as otherwise it really would look like a stitch-up) but that he will be found not to have broken any rules or laws. Johnson will apologise and grovel again and the issue will fizzle out - at least until the May elections. In May Johnson could be again under the cosh if the results are really bad - not sure if he'll be able to explain it all as mid-term 'blues'. This all reminds me of all the sleaze episodes towards the end of the Major era, which all chipped away at Tory support and led to the Blair landslide. I don't think there will be a repeat for simple reason that there is little enthusiasm for Labour now and the Brexit issue hasn't gone away. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 15:12:54 GMT
I don't think she'll exonerate or convict him, or anybody else. She'll just lay out the facts and let everybody come to their own conclusions. It's just too much of a disputed political hot potato for a civil servant to be seen to be judge and jury on a serving PM. the review will be done but it won't make a bit of difference either way. That's why the 'wait and see' line is so patently a means of buying time. Thinking about it any other leader would have upped and gone by now and/or been pushed out by now. Even Maggie would have realised the game was up a week or so ago.
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 15:19:04 GMT
I have no idea what Sue Gray will say
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 15:19:27 GMT
I don't think she'll exonerate or convict him, or anybody else. She'll just lay out the facts and let everybody come to their own conclusions. It's just too much of a disputed political hot potato for a civil servant to be seen to be judge and jury on a serving PM. the review will be done but it won't make a bit of difference either way. That's why the 'wait and see' line is so patently a means of buying time. Thinking about it any other leader would have upped and gone by now and/or been pushed out by now. Even Maggie would have realised the game was up a week or so ago. Maggie wouldn't have gone, no way! |
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Post by graham on Jan 13, 2022 15:33:17 GMT
I think its fairly obvious he'll be exonerated by Sue Grey,or a simple slap on the wrist. You'd be very naive to think the result isn't already set and she hasn't been given her orders...it will definitely smell of something and it won't be roses. My feeling is that he will be criticised (obviously, as otherwise it really would look like a stitch-up) but that he will be found not to have broken any rules or laws. Johnson will apologise and grovel again and the issue will fizzle out - at least until the May elections. In May Johnson could be again under the cosh if the results are really bad - not sure if he'll be able to explain it all as mid-term 'blues'. This all reminds me of all the sleaze episodes towards the end of the Major era, which all chipped away at Tory support and led to the Blair landslide. I don't think there will be a repeat for simple reason that there is little enthusiasm for Labour now and the Brexit issue hasn't gone away. Brexit has ceased to be a salient issue beyond the fanatics on both sides. Little sign of it at recent by elections. |
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Post by birdseye on Jan 13, 2022 15:37:32 GMT
neilj Thanks for your reply on the legal status. To me you've spelled out comprehensively why it is being viewed so badly, and I agree with others who've said that whatever the legal status is eventually found to be won't change that. But on the narrow point I was making, I don't think it follows from what you've said that it was clearly against the law as the stuff about where you can go and for what purpose surely becomes moot once you're already (lawfully) at work. To take a much milder example - it was clearly not allowed for people from different households to meet up for lunch, in any setting. But as I understand it people at work could lunch together in their canteen as long as that were possible whilst complying with distancing, hygiene etc. And yes I think that a manager saying "please join us in this part of the building at the end of the day so we can Appreciate your hard work" would count as "work" in any number of ways - for example both HR and an Employment Tribunal would very much consider what was said and done there to be in their jurisdiction. The purpose being recreational doesn't change that any more than if you gather in a meeting room for a leaving speech or to give someone a birthday present. So unless there was something in the COVID rules at that time that expressly said people within in a workspace must not have social contact even with distancing etc then I suspect the end result will be that the thing itself was not illegal, tho any individuals who travelled there just to take part would be in breach themselves. (Tho it will make zero difference politically if that is the case because people are upset about the behaviour and the attitude it conveys, having a legal excuse to do what everyone else couldn't won't make it any better at all! :-) ) As you say the legalities make no difference. Labour have managed to get the event fixed in people's minds as a "party" and no amount of explaining that is was a work gathering will make any difference particularly with blue collars who never go to "management meetings" if I can call it that. Labour strategists have remembered what the smear about sleeze did to Major, whether the accusations were justified or not, and have skilfully played the same game here.
Doesnt bode well for what follows though. As the polling history in TWs post shows, Boris had a convincing majority against his party election opponent. Its slear that none of the alternatives to Boris have that majority. Its even possible that if it was a TRuss / Boris fight, that Boris might win.
Wonder what the chances of a GE are.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 15:43:32 GMT
Wonder what the chances of a GE are.
Zero. You would need a vote of no confidence and many Tory MPs choosing to end their careers by voting against the government. |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on Jan 13, 2022 15:46:38 GMT
graham . There are only fanatics on one side of the brexit debate. Unfortunately they are the government.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 15:49:39 GMT
graham . There are only fanatics on one side of the brexit debate. Unfortunately they are the government. Well said! |
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Post by birdseye on Jan 13, 2022 15:50:02 GMT
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Post by catfuzz on Jan 13, 2022 15:57:50 GMT
Hard to know who is speaking here. |
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