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Post by bardin1 on Jan 13, 2022 12:30:10 GMT
This Poll is Cons' lowest rating since Dec. 2013. What are they waiting for ?. What is Sue Gray going to say which can possibly help.? Depends what kind of 'help' you mean. Rishi's twitter comment was hardly unconditional support: So IF Gray says 'bad Boris' then Boris is 'encouraged' to resign (ie given the chance to jump) or it gets messy and he needs to be pushed. IF he resigns Raab would step in as 'caretaker' and a leadership contest could be deferred until Summer (similar to the dates you posted WRT to 2019 contest). It's not impossible a new leader gets a 'white smoke' (Pope-style) election that avoids the members (similar to the 2016 contest where Leadsom pulled out). That's the 'best case scenario'. It could get very messy if Boris thinks he can stay on and the leadership contest is delayed and/or gets 'messy' once it does it happen (and not impossible Boris limps on all the way to GE'24 [1] - which would be 'worst case scenario' for CON) [1] IF Gray says no laws were broken then the court of public opinion is unlikely to change much which is IMO not going to 'help' (as Boris might well try to 'dig in' in which case it gets messy). PS On the other comment then seems a lot of folks vexed about format type stuff (eg reposting lengthy replies - no 'rule' against that and folks can always hide comments from certain posters or just use the scroll bar) but not bothered about sticking to the 'General Rules' on flaming, partisan bias, 'about' (not 'for') politics, etc. Irony being the inverse correlation to those most vexed by Boris breaking rules (and/or the Colston 4 verdict). Hyprocrisy - 'twas ever thus' on UKPR but I had hoped for better on UKPR2. Good analysis. I would be surprised if we have a 'white smoke' event this time around. Assuming Sunak is still in pole position in the polls, then he would surely stand. And if Truss remains the members' darling she would surely want to take it to a vote and have the chance to pressurise MPs with their constituency members' influence? That's not to mention the vanity of Statler and Waldorf, sorry, Gove and Raab, and the remaining aspirations of Javed (who I thought performed best at the last hustings). Not to forget Hunt who after all came second last time and has surely done himself no harm with his even handed chairing of the Health and Social Care Select Committee |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 12:34:23 GMT
I'm not sure if anyone else has already posted the 'movement' info from latest YG but looking at the DK (change from 6-7Jan) using the GE'19 x-breaks CON'19: 26% (+7) LAB'19: 12% (uc) Very little change in CON'19-> LAB/Other VI but note the LTV %s have also deteriorated for CON as a 'differential' to LAB/Other which will also cause the headline %s to shift In 'Best PM' then some more CON'19 have moved to 'not sure' and that is now 36% (+5) but only 9% (uc) consider Starmer the best PM Recoverable for a new leader? Anyone but Boris = Rishi, who IMO is the 'PM in waiting' (I appreciate others think Starmer is but not until at least GE'24 and for the 'good of the country' then we surely can't wait over 2yrs for a new PM?). PS @laszlo Valid point on timing. Gray's decision (or maybe even the Police) will likely force the timing issue. May LEs quite a long time away but realistically given how long a full leadership would take then 'Caretaker Raab' and 'blame Boris' seems more likely than a new PM in #10 by then (IMO), subject to 'events' (see previous post and note we're still in a pandemic, energy/cost of living crisis, etc - so any contest has very valid reasons for a delay) inews.co.uk/news/sue-gray-boris-johnson-party-inquiry-downing-street-when-complete-delay-police-1396018 |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 13, 2022 12:34:47 GMT
I know some were questioning the relevance of 1992 to today, but there is a parallel in relation to the where we are now in terms of the Parliament and the timeframe from when Thatcher was ousted (after a period of double digit Labour leads in polls) to when Major went to the polls in 1992, shortly before the full term was up. In that time the Tory VI was able to recover sufficiently for them to win. So for the Tories the risk is they leave it too late, blue on blue attacks further undermine their VI and Labour's solidifies. Or do you allow Johnson to take all the heat for the next six months (cost of living issue etc) and then chose a new Leader to put a 'fresh' face up to the electorate? The Tories have been playing dice for a while, perhaps their luck is finally running out?
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 12:38:24 GMT
I think they'll wait for the local elections and hope that they turn out badly, thus giving Boris an excuse to resign or them the excuse to defenestrate him.
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Post by alec on Jan 13, 2022 12:40:48 GMT
bardin1 - "And if Truss remains the members' darling she would surely want to take it to a vote and have the chance to pressurise MPs with their constituency members' influence?" The recent YG Conservative members poll was interesting on this. While Sunak's support was I think identical between the questions of whether he would be better than Johnson as PM and whether he would do better with voters, there was a marked drop in Truss' ratings, with the numbers suggesting that the membership like the idea of her as PM (although not as much as Sunak) but some of them realising that voters wouldn't be as keen as they themselves are on Truss. But Conservative members are an odd bunch. As I flagged up yesterday, 79% say they expect to win the next GE, but more than half of them don't know who the leader will be that is 79% likely to win. That's a pretty odd mindset I'd say. Some risk of hubris and arrogance implied by those numbers.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 12:41:12 GMT
When Major took over from Thatcher Labour was still well ahead in the polls, he had to delay.
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Post by shevii on Jan 13, 2022 12:42:57 GMT
UNS is helpful but tends to understate the winners bonus as it does not pick up higher turnout with a greater level of LTV for the 'winners' in marginal seats. Plus the tactical voting element James refers to, even if a much lower level it still pulls some seats away from the 'loser' 40/30 or 38/28 would imo produce a clear Labour Majority, whether good or not is a different matter. Chance of either of those 10 point margin result is still very low against a different Tory leader. I think we can take it as read that if Tories are on 28/30 then they're going to lose badly and even if Lab only hit 35% they would probably get a majority like in 2005. At those Tory levels of support it's clear there will be a strong ABT vote. I still think Labour should be a bit worried about that 38%. Admittedly yougov are the least favourable for Labour normally and this current crisis hasn't fully fed into the polls with cost of living crisis still to come, but if 38% is what they get when Tories are at such a low point then that's not enough to feel confident about anything. |
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 12:44:02 GMT
I think they'll wait for the local elections and hope that they turn out badly, thus giving Boris an excuse to resign or them the excuse to defenestrate him. I increasingly believe that this will happen. I expect that the Gray report will come back with a verdict of 'not proven', meaning no solid evidence against Johnson but nothing damning either other than what we already know. There will grumbles in the party, but Boris will limp on until the May elections, which will bash the Tories badly. Then Johnson will have run out of road - he will likely go on his own accord. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 12:44:56 GMT
@sda
My comment was a jape. I didn't know there was actually a sports thread set up by Mark! I haven't sought it out, nor would I use it. I am a member of numerous sports related blogs and forums and I don't think I have the mental energy to join another! I'm currently being sued for libel by a West Bromwich Albion supporter on one of the football forums so I think my days of trading sporting abuse may be coming to an abrupt end.
However, as a matter of courtesy, I will answer your question. Briefly. Louis Digne is an excellent acquisition and addresses a long standing defensive weakness we have at left back. I'm looking forward to both his, and Philippe Coutinho's, debuts against United on Saturday at Villa Park.
There ends my sports report. I will now concentrate on all matters polling.
Very disappointed to see Labour only 9 points ahead in the latest Focaldata poll. The frisson of pleasure generated is not quite as voluptuous as that magical double digit lead.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 13, 2022 12:45:01 GMT
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Post by James E on Jan 13, 2022 12:47:22 GMT
9 point Labour lead with Focaldata
Note that their comparative figures are from 20-21 dec, so at the height of 'Partygate 1'
LAB: 42% (+1)
CON: 33% (-1)
LDM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (-1)
RFM: 3% (-1)
Via
@focaldatahq
, 12-13 Jan.
Changes w/ 20-21 Dec.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 12:47:41 GMT
This poll is much better and encouraging for Labour. This is the level they need to be at. |
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Post by statgeek on Jan 13, 2022 12:47:49 GMT
As someone else pointed out elsewhere, that map shows a very interesting point. There are zero Tory MPs in Scotland or Wales (NI might have one or two in spirit, if we're being objective). Perhaps it's finally time for the 'Unionist' part of their title to be reconsidered. I imagine Ross, with Ruthie's support is thinking hard about a separate Scottish Conservative party, given their current electability. At what point does their manic legwork translate from kinetic to electrical energy and power the light-bulb of realisation on the irony of the Scottish Tories seeking separation to stay electable in a country where they advocate non-separation? A new Scottish Unionist Party? Can Con/Lab/Lib in Scotland survive the exodus? |
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Post by neilj on Jan 13, 2022 12:48:26 GMT
As I said earlier I don't think Gray will make any finding of guilt or innocence, but just set out the facts of each event/party
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 12:50:15 GMT
Got that one wrong as well. Should have read: “Oh......... please don’t leave again Batty and welcome back.” Sometimes you are funny, Crofty. But you aren't being very funny just now. Don’t smile then Nick - it’s not difficult. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 12:52:39 GMT
I would be surprised if we have a 'white smoke' event this time around. Assuming Sunak is still in pole position in the polls, then he would surely stand. And if Truss remains the members' darling she would surely want to take it to a vote and have the chance to pressurise MPs with their constituency members' influence? That's not to mention the vanity of Statler and Waldorf, sorry, Gove and Raab, and the remaining aspirations of Javed (who I thought performed best at the last hustings). Not to forget Hunt who after all came second last time and has surely done himself no harm with his even handed chairing of the Health and Social Care Select Committee I merely said 'not impossible' but I'll elaborate slightly beyond the comparison to 2016. CON have a massive 'delivery' task ahead of GE'24 and a leadership contest sucks a load of 'bandwidth'. Raab as 'caretaker' into the Summer gives CON MPs a lot of time to work on the 'white smoke' approach. Raab might fancy his chances but he's in a very marginal seat, has a lot of baggage and not that popular (see YG or R&W). Gove is toxic (see YG or R&W). Wishful thinking on my part perhaps but Rishi in #10, Saj into #11 and Hunt back as H.Sec (with everyone else 'as you were') would be my 'dream team' for minimal disruption. I'd be very happy with the even simpler Hunt into #10 and everyone else 'as you were'. WRT to Brand Rishi v Brand Truss then, yes, Truss is slightly ahead with members but Rishi is way ahead with gen.pub[1] and most CON MPs main motivation is to stay in power (ie they'll be highly influenced by which candidate is most likely to win a GE so that they can keep their seat and stay in power - for CON it's not the taking part, it's the winning that counts!) [1] Attached is latest YG 'favourability'. Rishi -1 v Truss -25. In the CON'19 x-break then Rishi +43 v Truss 0. R&W have Rishi at +17 v Truss at -7 but don't give the x-break details. docs.cdn.yougov.com/besi9p8t52/Internal_Favourability_220107_W.pdf |
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 13:00:26 GMT
If Sunak were to be PM I wonder if Tories might gain a few seats in Indian-dominated areas (though they tend to integrate more than other south Asians so are more scattered).
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 13:05:05 GMT
If Sunak were to be PM I wonder if Tories might gain a few seats in Indian-dominated areas (though they tend to integrate more than other south Asians so are more scattered). It could benefit the Tories in some seats in west London and the Midlands. I don't see it having a big impact. |
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 13:06:14 GMT
Shevii, Agree 38% not enough Lab need 40+ for a few months but with a change of PM there would be a honeymoon followed by a correction so hard to discern from polls, and indeed local elections if we get that far with this PM, the real position; although some idea of potential support may be possible.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 13:06:36 GMT
@tw
@"CON have a massive 'delivery' task ahead of GE'24 and a leadership contest sucks a load of 'bandwidth'. Raab as 'caretaker' into the Summer gives CON MPs a lot of time to work on the 'white smoke' approach. Raab might fancy his chances but he's in a very marginal seat, has a lot of baggage and not that popular (see YG or R&W). Gove is toxic (see YG or R&W).
Wishful thinking on my part perhaps but Rishi in #10, Saj into #11 and Hunt back as H.Sec (with everyone else 'as you were') would be my 'dream team' for minimal disruption. I'd be very happy with the even simpler Hunt into #10 and everyone else 'as you were'."
I like it.
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 13:09:56 GMT
A new leader would make significant changes in the cabinet IMO. This is because 1) Some influential supporters would want a quid pro quo and 2) Most people coming into a new senior post like to make their mark early. Mark their territory so to speak, like a dog and a lamp-post.
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 13:13:36 GMT
Rich (LL) apologies for my 'own trumpet blowing' but I said many months ago that this parliament had the feel of 87-92.
An increasingly unpopular PM for different reasons with Labour opening up a lead before the Tories change the PM.
Some differences of course, such as the Tory majority being less than in '87, why the PM is getting less popular, the Labour leader appearing more like a PM, Scotland's profile changing to name but 4.
Also polls were less accurate then as we know so a lower lead for Labour would be comparable.
Before my time but 59-64 has similarities as well and '64 and '92 came after 13 Tory years while '24 would be after 14.
In 64 Labour scraped a majority (with many Scottish seats of course) in '92 the Tories hung on.
Is why a close GE but with Tories most seats seems most likely to me with the question can they get enough seats to continue in office?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 13:14:17 GMT
A new leader would make significant changes in the cabinet IMO. This is because 1) Some influential supporters would want a quid pro quo and 2) Most people coming into a new senior post like to make their mark early. Mark their territory so to speak, like a dog and a lamp-post. Plus it’s full of duffers. |
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 13:18:51 GMT
Patel would struggle to stay in office under a new PM imo as the new broom would require that Johnson ignoring her breaking of the ministerial code was addressed.
If she stays in post it would be too easy for the same of Tories charge to be levied with some traction.
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Post by graham on Jan 13, 2022 13:23:29 GMT
The DUP were not natural Tory allies - far less so than the Official Ulster Unionists. In terms of economic policy they are closer to Labour -and may have declined to support the Tories had Ed Milliband or Keir Starmer been leader in 2017 Labour would simply challenge the other parties to vote them down.
Less compatible than the 'Official' Ulster Unionists but compatible enough. They are right wing and pro-Brexit. More right wing than the UUP on social policy - but not economic policy. |
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 13:23:42 GMT
@tw @"CON have a massive 'delivery' task ahead of GE'24 and a leadership contest sucks a load of 'bandwidth'. Raab as 'caretaker' into the Summer gives CON MPs a lot of time to work on the 'white smoke' approach. Raab might fancy his chances but he's in a very marginal seat, has a lot of baggage and not that popular (see YG or R&W). Gove is toxic (see YG or R&W). Wishful thinking on my part perhaps but Rishi in #10, Saj into #11 and Hunt back as H.Sec (with everyone else 'as you were') would be my 'dream team' for minimal disruption. I'd be very happy with the even simpler Hunt into #10 and everyone else 'as you were'."
I like it. Hunt would be my choice if I was a Tory, but as a confirmed remainer he would be hated by the ERG and some other brexiters. That said, he would steady the Tory ship more effectively than Truss or Sunak. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 13:31:22 GMT
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Post by graham on Jan 13, 2022 13:35:49 GMT
When Major took over from Thatcher Labour was still well ahead in the polls, he had to delay. Within a few days of Major becoming PM at the end of Npvember 1990 there were polls giving the Tories leads as high as 11% and 13%. This was followed in early 1991 by a Gulf War 1 boost for the new PM. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jan 13, 2022 13:36:26 GMT
I've been toying with the idea of standing as an OMRLP candidate in the next GE, so did a bit of research. I loved this policy: "To unite the population, we will surround the UK with a large cardboard box so people can be both in and/or out of the EU. This will be known as Schrodinger’s Brexit." |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 13:37:21 GMT
A new leader would make significant changes in the cabinet IMO. This is because 1) Some influential supporters would want a quid pro quo and 2) Most people coming into a new senior post like to make their mark early. Mark their territory so to speak, like a dog and a lamp-post. Plus it’s full of duffers. The dog being Sunak and the lamp-post being the country. |
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