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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 11:19:04 GMT
He's actually 5th favourite with Betfair at 19/1. Have you put a crafty few quid on? I'm not a betting man Mercie, but it might be a good wheeze. Just a feeling in my water, though he hasn't got much of a public profile. I've just read up on him a bit and, whisper it, he's a (looks around over his shoulder, checking coast is clear) remainer. That last bit was typed in disappearing ink and will disappear in 30 seconds....... Drats. Thing is, if, somehow a remainer did get the top job, which has to be an enormous IF, would they be able to find enough supporters to form a government payroll from among Tory MP's these days? Sad to think that so many sensible and talented potential PM's ducked out of the Tory party during the past decade. What's the term, oh yes 'hollowed out'. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 11:20:03 GMT
It is a challenge for the Conservative Party. Should they wait until the local elections and take the loss of seats as a trade off for being able to blame Johnson, and giving a clean sheet to the next PM, or attempt to get rid of Johnson before as even then they could blame him (but it is less helpful for the successor).
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Post by jimjam on Jan 13, 2022 11:20:20 GMT
UNS is helpful but tends to understate the winners bonus as it does not pick up higher turnout with a greater level of LTV for the 'winners' in marginal seats.
Plus the tactical voting element James refers to, even if a much lower level it still pulls some seats away from the 'loser'
40/30 or 38/28 would imo produce a clear Labour Majority, whether good or not is a different matter.
Chance of either of those 10 point margin result is still very low against a different Tory leader.
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Post by peterbell on Jan 13, 2022 11:27:11 GMT
In common with several other posters this morning, I question how Sue Gray's inquiry can be classed as independent. How many people would produce a very negative report when the two key offenders are their boss. I now see why the CONS (I use the capitals advisedly) were so keen to keep telling people to wait for the report - it was essentially their only response.
Even if the report is negative wrt Johnson, he can do what he did with the Pristina Patel report.
Wes Streeting questioned her independence on Newsnight last night and imo the Labour Party should make this a big issue before the report is issued
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Post by peterbell on Jan 13, 2022 11:29:55 GMT
Pristina is a predictive text error for Pritti
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Post by statgeek on Jan 13, 2022 11:32:20 GMT
What I find interesting about the latest YouGov poll is that Reform UK has seen no benefit from the drop in Conservative support Most likely due to those inclined to switch from Con not being natural UKIP/Bxp/Ref voters. Perhaps 2019 was the 'big con' where the red wall voted blue for once, and they're all shifting away. In other news, SNP on 55% in Scotland, and securing all seats. Con and Lab both under 20%. Noticeable that those moving away from Con in Scotland are not shifting to Lab/Lib/Ref either, short of there being a merry-go-round, and the drift just looks like a Con to SNP shift. Strange how that isn't news nowadays (SNP potentially taking all seats in Scotland). Or maybe it's not the news that the UK media want to print.  |
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 11:33:47 GMT
crossbat11
"Mrs J's advice? Dig in Mr J. They're not fit to lace your boots................"
Which still doesn't answer my question, or in fact makes it even more pertinent. It might mean that she's keener to have the position than he is. In which case, when he loses it...
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 11:38:10 GMT
Well my house is freehold and owned outright, so I suppose I am 😄 Reminds me of an old rhyme. She offered her honour to Offa Offa honoured the offer she made So Offa was on her and off her all night As the maid was properly laid. Memories. Fading fast. ☹ |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 11:38:40 GMT
Two quotes from this scary article :- www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/12/russia-europe-gas-crisis-international-energy-agency-boss"Analysts estimate that Europe’s gas prices could fall by half if Russia agreed to increase its exports by 20%. " ie-What timescale of energy cost relief is Sunak staring at ?-ask Putin it seems and "“As we move towards net zero, gas is a big transition fuel, so as you turn off coal-fired power stations in other countries, there’s more demand for gas, but there isn’t an abundance of gas that you can just turn on quickly.” ie-Net Zero=more gas= power to Putin I am not quite sure about the conclusions. Russia is also desperate for export revenue, so agreement is more likely to happen relatively soon (obviously neither Russia nor the EU can made it publicly tied to Ukraine and Belarus). They could also collaborate with China to speed up the financing of the Southern gas pipe (there are many new technologies that can make it quick to build them) and it could be used to negotiate with Putin (yes, the supplier countries are in Russia's interest zone). It would also be possible to change some of the financial regulations to ease investment to alternative energy (I was reading the report of the largest public risk consultancy' on the energy sector and they elaborate on it - I don't know if they also lobby. It is a German company with differently named subsidiaries practically everywhere in the world). But I agree - Sunak needs a timetable with milestones and indicators (if changes are needed). |
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 13, 2022 11:39:07 GMT
I think there is real opportunity here for Labour. A risky, but interesting strategy would be to work with Ld's, Greens, SNP and Plaid to bring a No Confidence vote forward. Almost all Tories would vote for the Government and it would be lost, but the whole party would be tarnished and the big bonus would be the oppositions being seen to act as grown ups in the National interest. The downsides, could be accidently winning (!) and for some reason, many centrists in England find the SNP a toxic brand, working with them might put some off voting Labour in any GE.
I am hopeful that a narrative could be devloped which really pushes the unsuitability of the Cons to govern, "why trust any Tory", as the strapline.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 11:41:57 GMT
I think there is real opportunity here for Labour. A risky, but interesting strategy would be to work with Ld's, Greens, SNP and Plaid to bring a No Confidence vote forward. Almost all Tories would vote for the Government and it would be lost, but the whole party would be tarnished and the big bonus would be the oppositions being seen to act as grown ups in the National interest. The downsides, could be accidently winning (!) and for some reason, many centrists in England find the SNP a toxic brand, working with them might put some off voting Labour in any GE. I am hopeful that a narrative could be devloped which really pushes the unsuitability of the Cons to govern, "why trust any Tory", as the strapline. Nah, I think this would be seen as a stunt. It wouldn't work. The current issue is with Boris Johnson, not so much the Tories as a whole. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 11:48:46 GMT
I'm just off for a little stagger around the byways and highways of South Worcestershire, then I will return to enlighten you all with some typical caustic commentary. Oh.......... please don’t. Got that one wrong as well. Should have read: “Oh......... please don’t leave again Batty and welcome back.” |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 11:50:24 GMT
"But, Mr Speaker, with hindsight I should have sent everyone back inside, I should have found some other way to thank them, and I should have recognised that even if it could be said technically to fall within the guidance, there would be millions and millions of people who simply would not see it that way."
Captain Hindsight!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 11:50:57 GMT
I think there is real opportunity here for Labour. A risky, but interesting strategy would be to work with Ld's, Greens, SNP and Plaid to bring a No Confidence vote forward. Almost all Tories would vote for the Government and it would be lost, but the whole party would be tarnished and the big bonus would be the oppositions being seen to act as grown ups in the National interest. The downsides, could be accidently winning (!) and for some reason, many centrists in England find the SNP a toxic brand, working with them might put some off voting Labour in any GE. I am hopeful that a narrative could be devloped which really pushes the unsuitability of the Cons to govern, "why trust any Tory", as the strapline. This is much as I suggested yesterday. It has the obvious advantage of exposing all Tory MPs as being complicit in supporting the leadership. |
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 11:51:02 GMT
Most likely due to those inclined to switch from Con not being natural UKIP/Bxp/Ref voters. Perhaps 2019 was the 'big con' where the red wall voted blue for once, and they're all shifting away. In other news, SNP on 55% in Scotland, and securing all seats. Con and Lab both under 20%. Noticeable that those moving away from Con in Scotland are not shifting to Lab/Lib/Ref either, short of there being a merry-go-round, and the drift just looks like a Con to SNP shift. Strange how that isn't news nowadays (SNP potentially taking all seats in Scotland). Or maybe it's not the news that the UK media want to print. I increasingly believe that any government elected in 2024 will have to agree to a second Scottish independence referendum, given the possibility of a clean sweep by the SNP. My current prediction is a hung parliament with Labour forming a coalition government with SNP, Plaid and LibDems. |
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Post by peterbell on Jan 13, 2022 11:51:40 GMT
The Tories who are coming out to back someone who is a persistent liar deserve to be classed in the same group as Johnson
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 11:51:44 GMT
Oh.......... please don’t. Got that one wrong as well. Should have read: “Oh......... please don’t leave again Batty and welcome back.” Sometimes you are funny, Crofty. But you aren't being very funny just now. |
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Post by graham on Jan 13, 2022 11:53:50 GMT
I've said before that Labour needs 40% as a minimum in order to have a safe majority. I stand by that assertion and the forecasting model proves it. Starmer has his work cut out, though I have to say the Tories are helping him a lot at the moment! In reality, I would expect Labour to reach at least 335 on the Yougov figures - including a few gains in Scotland. |
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 11:55:32 GMT
The Tories who are coming out to back someone who is a persistent liar deserve to be classed in the same group as Johnson Maybe, but for the Tories the party always come before country. We saw that in 2019 when they repeatedly voted down all amendments that could have stopped a hard Brexit. |
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Post by alec on Jan 13, 2022 11:56:51 GMT
Interesting paper here on the media discourse around herd immunity - journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pgph.0000078&s=09Looking at the UK and US, they find that politicians were mainly responsible for the promotion of herd immunity as a policy goal, against the majority of academics and health professionals. The study found that false balance in the media (eg giving equal status to factually wrong views) was also responsible for promoting herd immunity. "The presentation of herd immunity in news media underscores the need for greater appreciation of potential harm of media representations that contain false balance." As we wrestle with Omicron, after already apparently achieving herd immunity ...what...two or three times already? - this paper is timely. |
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 11:58:08 GMT
I've said before that Labour needs 40% as a minimum in order to have a safe majority. I stand by that assertion and the forecasting model proves it. Starmer has his work cut out, though I have to say the Tories are helping him a lot at the moment! In reality, I would expect Labour to reach at least 335 on the Yougov figures - including a few gains in Scotland. Yes if there was an election in the next few weeks, but it won't happen. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 12:01:23 GMT
'Any comment on your signing Mr Batsford?' 'Was he worth that much?' 'How d'you think he'll fit in at Villa Park?' 'Will he improve pie sales?' 'Is he bringing his own LFT's?' Mark's opened a new thread on the January Transfer Window. I've placed my comments on there. Sir, you are being ecumenical with the truth. I have reviewed the sporting sports thread set up by our esteemed sinister leaning tolerant member and whilst Viller get a mention, there is no comment about the matters I raised. So I ask you again Sir (see above so not to repeat myself and upset Mr Shevs, or Colin or Mark). |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Jan 13, 2022 12:02:55 GMT
neiljI wonder how many UKIP voters realise their party has moved on, changed its name, whatever. The last time they voted for it, Farage was at the helm and it was called the Brexit party. I see no evidence much of their demographic follows politics closely. I don't think I even realised myself they were the same thing until just before Christmas.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 12:05:30 GMT
This Poll is Cons' lowest rating since Dec. 2013. What are they waiting for ?. What is Sue Gray going to say which can possibly help.? Depends what kind of 'help' you mean. Rishi's twitter comment was hardly unconditional support: So IF Gray says 'bad Boris' then Boris is 'encouraged' to resign (ie given the chance to jump) or it gets messy and he needs to be pushed. IF he resigns Raab would step in as 'caretaker' and a leadership contest could be deferred until Summer (similar to the dates you posted WRT to 2019 contest). It's not impossible a new leader gets a 'white smoke' (Pope-style) election that avoids the members (similar to the 2016 contest where Leadsom pulled out). That's the 'best case scenario'. It could get very messy if Boris thinks he can stay on and the leadership contest is delayed and/or gets 'messy' once it does it happen (and not impossible Boris limps on all the way to GE'24 [1] - which would be 'worst case scenario' for CON) [1] IF Gray says no laws were broken then the court of public opinion is unlikely to change much which is IMO not going to 'help' (as Boris might well try to 'dig in' in which case it gets messy). PS On the other comment then seems a lot of folks vexed about format type stuff (eg reposting lengthy replies - no 'rule' against that and folks can always hide comments from certain posters or just use the scroll bar) but not bothered about sticking to the 'General Rules' on flaming, partisan bias, 'about' (not 'for') politics, etc. Irony being the inverse correlation to those most vexed by Boris breaking rules (and/or the Colston 4 verdict). Hyprocrisy - 'twas ever thus' on UKPR but I had hoped for better on UKPR2. |
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Jan 13, 2022 12:13:45 GMT
tancred"This would be my dream result! Labour largest party or with a tiny lead. Then - FINALLY - they would be persuaded to work with the LibDems and bring in PR." Dream on. Even if that was the result, there's not a hope in hell the SNP or Caroline Lucas would side with the Tories, giving Labour a healthy enough effective majority to do anything Starmer is likely bring to the table. The idea that a handful of LDs led by a has-been orange booker will wield any power against Starmer is fanciful at best. Davey and his pals had an open goal to do just this in 2010 and missed it by the length of the pitch. I can't foresee any result which delivers PR in the next few years. Unfortunately.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 12:15:24 GMT
This Poll is Cons' lowest rating since Dec. 2013. What are they waiting for ?. What is Sue Gray going to say which can possibly help.? Depends what kind of 'help' you mean. Rishi's twitter comment was hardly unconditional support: So IF Gray says 'bad Boris' then Boris is 'encouraged' to resign (ie given the chance to jump) or it gets messy and he needs to be pushed. IF he resigns Raab would step in as 'caretaker' and a leadership contest could be deferred until Summer (similar to the dates you posted WRT to 2019 contest). It's not impossible a new leader gets a 'white smoke' (Pope-style) election that avoids the members (similar to the 2016 contest where Leadsom pulled out). That's the 'best case scenario'. It could get very messy if Boris thinks he can stay on and the leadership contest is delayed and/or gets 'messy' once it does it happen (and not impossible Boris limps on all the way to GE'24 [1] - which would be 'worst case scenario' for CON) [1] IF Gray says no laws were broken then the court of public opinion is unlikely to change much which is IMO not going to 'help' (as Boris might well try to 'dig in' in which case it gets messy). PS On the other comment then seems a lot of folks vexed about format type stuff (eg reposting lengthy replies - no 'rule' against that and folks can always hide comments from certain posters or just use the scroll bar) but not bothered about sticking to the 'General Rules' on flaming, partisan bias, 'about' (not 'for') politics, etc. Irony being the inverse correlation to those most vexed by Boris breaking rules (and/or the Colston 4 verdict). Hyprocrisy - 'twas ever thus' on UKPR but I had hoped for better on UKPR2. Thanks. Agreed |
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Post by steve on Jan 13, 2022 12:16:44 GMT
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 12:19:05 GMT
tancred "This would be my dream result! Labour largest party or with a tiny lead. Then - FINALLY - they would be persuaded to work with the LibDems and bring in PR." Dream on. Even if that was the result, there's not a hope in hell the SNP or Caroline Lucas would side with the Tories, giving Labour a healthy enough effective majority to do anything Starmer is likely bring to the table. The idea that a handful of LDs led by a has-been orange booker will wield any power against Starmer is fanciful at best. Davey and his pals had an open goal to do just this in 2010 and missed it by the length of the pitch. I can't foresee any result which delivers PR in the next few years. Unfortunately. I don't know what the heck you are on about. Are you saying that a Labour government could work on a supply and confidence pact? Not sure it would work for long. I guess maybe a year or two at the most before a new election was called. These pacts are designed to be patch ups pending a new election, not permanent arrangements. The Tory/DUP pact was between two virtually identical political entities, so it worked well, but SNP and LibDems have minds of their own and will hold Starmer to account. The price of ANY deal will be a second independence referendum and one on PR. |
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Post by graham on Jan 13, 2022 12:26:05 GMT
tancred "This would be my dream result! Labour largest party or with a tiny lead. Then - FINALLY - they would be persuaded to work with the LibDems and bring in PR." Dream on. Even if that was the result, there's not a hope in hell the SNP or Caroline Lucas would side with the Tories, giving Labour a healthy enough effective majority to do anything Starmer is likely bring to the table. The idea that a handful of LDs led by a has-been orange booker will wield any power against Starmer is fanciful at best. Davey and his pals had an open goal to do just this in 2010 and missed it by the length of the pitch. I can't foresee any result which delivers PR in the next few years. Unfortunately. I don't know what the heck you are on about. Are you saying that a Labour government could work on a supply and confidence pact? Not sure it would work for long. I guess maybe a year or two at the most before a new election was called. These pacts are designed to be patch ups pending a new election, not permanent arrangements. The Tory/DUP pact was between two virtually identical political entities, so it worked well, but SNP and LibDems have minds of their own and will hold Starmer to account. The price of ANY deal will be a second independence referendum and one on PR. The DUP were not natural Tory allies - far less so than the Official Ulster Unionists. In terms of economic policy they are closer to Labour -and may have declined to support the Tories had Ed Milliband or Keir Starmer been leader in 2017 Labour would simply challenge the other parties to vote them down.
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 12:29:11 GMT
The DUP were not natural Tory allies - far less so than the Official Ulster Unionists. In terms of economic policy they are closer to Labour -and may have declined to support the Tories had Ed Milliband or Keir Starmer been leader in 2017 Labour would simply challenge the other parties to vote them down.
Less compatible than the 'Official' Ulster Unionists but compatible enough. They are right wing and pro-Brexit. |
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