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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 10:14:51 GMT
'Any comment on your signing Mr Batsford?'
'Was he worth that much?'
'How d'you think he'll fit in at Villa Park?'
'Will he improve pie sales?'
'Is he bringing his own LFT's?'
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 10:15:41 GMT
I think you are all still underestimating Boris. He is still there. The Tories will not get rid of him unless there is a sustained 10% deficit in the polls. I don't see him as quitter, I must say. |
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 10:21:02 GMT
mercian I've just got to come up with a decent name. What do you think of 'Duke of Earl'?
Surely it should be King Offa? King Offa a bit of land? Well my house is freehold and owned outright, so I suppose I am 😄 |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 13, 2022 10:22:37 GMT
What I find interesting about the latest YouGov poll is that Reform UK has seen no benefit from the drop in Conservative support
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 10:23:10 GMT
'Any comment on your signing Mr Batsford?' 'Was he worth that much?' 'How d'you think he'll fit in at Villa Park?' 'Will he improve pie sales?' 'Is he bringing his own LFT's?' Mark's opened a new thread on the January Transfer Window. I've placed my comments on there. |
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Jan 13, 2022 10:25:14 GMT
 ? Can't follow the thread for what the issue you are talking about is but don't think it was me "having a go". Maybe Statgeek? |
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Jan 13, 2022 10:26:52 GMT
Just put three question marks but discovered a short cut to a confused icon!
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 10:27:01 GMT
I've said before that Labour needs 40% as a minimum in order to have a safe majority. I stand by that assertion and the forecasting model proves it. Starmer has his work cut out, though I have to say the Tories are helping him a lot at the moment!
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 10:27:04 GMT
Two quotes from this scary article :- www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/12/russia-europe-gas-crisis-international-energy-agency-boss"Analysts estimate that Europe’s gas prices could fall by half if Russia agreed to increase its exports by 20%. " ie-What timescale of energy cost relief is Sunak staring at ?-ask Putin it seems and "“As we move towards net zero, gas is a big transition fuel, so as you turn off coal-fired power stations in other countries, there’s more demand for gas, but there isn’t an abundance of gas that you can just turn on quickly.” ie-Net Zero=more gas= power to Putin |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 10:28:32 GMT
 ? Can't follow the thread for what the issue you are talking about is but don't think it was me "having a go". Maybe Statgeek? It was-apologies shevii |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 10:29:29 GMT
I think you are all still underestimating Boris. He is still there. The Tories will not get rid of him unless there is a sustained 10% deficit in the polls. I don't see him as quitter, I must say. Is he getting all Peter Mandelson on us? "I'm not a quitter, I'm a fighter!". Cue manic stare at audience. If I was a Labour strategist I'd be pretty relaxed either way, quit or stay, but my clear preference would be for Johnson to fight like hell. Fight them on the backbenches, fight them in the meeting rooms, fight them in the Cabinet, fight them in the TV studios, he will never surrender. Yep, that would be my dream scenario, I think. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 10:30:51 GMT
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Post by reggieside on Jan 13, 2022 10:33:35 GMT
I think you are all still underestimating Boris. He is still there. The Tories will not get rid of him unless there is a sustained 10% deficit in the polls. Nah - public outrage will push tory mps to fire off those letters to the 1922 committee. Its only going to take one more toxic leak of a party photo/video and he's done. Or another sleaze revelation. Or another cack handed u turn. Or another peppa pig clown show. Johnson has been blundering from calamity to calamity for months now - you can be assured that another one is just around the corner. He has served his purpose for the tory brexit headbangers and the RW press are clearly withdrawing their love. Gone by Easter at the latest. |
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 10:43:54 GMT
So a change in leadership looks to take about two months, which takes us to mid March. I was idly wondering which candidates would want Johnson's blessing? I guess, in the circumstances, none. I'm still going for Tom Tugendhat. He's actually 5th favourite with Betfair at 19/1. Have you put a crafty few quid on? |
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Post by hireton on Jan 13, 2022 10:44:15 GMT
It may not be what Gray actually says but how that can be spun. As far as I can see, Gray has been asked primarily to investigate what events took place in the context of the regulations and guidance applying at the time and to identify whether any further criminal and disciplinary action ( which would require further investigation and due process) would be warranted. She has no locus to stray into Ministerial Code issues as far as I can see. So the report will be detailed and may provide enough non-critical material for Johnson to claim that he has been exonerated with a few Civil Servants carrying the blame. I don't know whether that would be sufficient for Johnson to survive. I doubt whether it would have much impact on public opinion immediately. |
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Post by robert on Jan 13, 2022 10:44:33 GMT
I should have stuck by my original prediction that he would be gone by spring. I don't see how he can come back from this.
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Post by James E on Jan 13, 2022 10:45:43 GMT
What I find interesting about the latest YouGov poll is that Reform UK has seen no benefit from the drop in Conservative support Indeed, it is the lowest Refuk share in the last 10 YouGov polls. One other interesting stat. Looking at polling shares for 'Right of Centre' - so Conservative, plus UKIP, BXP and/or RefUK, the 32% ROC share is the lowest in ANY poll since at least 2005. And it may be earlier than that, because UKIP are not listed separately at that time among 'others' of 8% or so. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2005_United_Kingdom_general_election |
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 10:49:03 GMT
I think you are all still underestimating Boris. He is still there. The Tories will not get rid of him unless there is a sustained 10% deficit in the polls. Nah - public outrage will push tory mps to fire off those letters to the 1922 committee. Its only going to take one more toxic leak of a party photo/video and he's done. Or another sleaze revelation. Or another cack handed u turn. Or another peppa pig clown show. Johnson has been blundering from calamity to calamity for months now - you can be assured that another one is just around the corner. He has served his purpose for the tory brexit headbangers and the RW press are clearly withdrawing their love. Gone by Easter at the latest. Certainly looking that way. But I can't see him going 'gently into that good night' - he'll rage and rage against the dying of the Tory light! |
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Post by mercian on Jan 13, 2022 10:51:55 GMT
I wonder how long his missus will hang around when he loses the top job?
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 13, 2022 10:55:01 GMT
Anyone know what polls if any are due this week?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 13, 2022 10:57:48 GMT
So a change in leadership looks to take about two months, which takes us to mid March. I was idly wondering which candidates would want Johnson's blessing? I guess, in the circumstances, none. I'm still going for Tom Tugendhat. He's actually 5th favourite with Betfair at 19/1. Have you put a crafty few quid on? I'm not a betting man Mercie, but it might be a good wheeze. Just a feeling in my water, though he hasn't got much of a public profile. |
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Post by hireton on Jan 13, 2022 10:58:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 11:00:47 GMT
An interesting insight into the "culture" at No 10 which is behind Johnson's claim that the garden is an extension of the office:- www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59972864All irrelevant of course-the public have made their minds up. Many of us have been wondering how Johnson's popularity has been maintained for a good while now, if not how it ever existed. You've certainly voiced your doubts enough times Colin, despite some sporadic bouts of wishful thinking. Has he just finally run out of 'benefit of the doubt' forgiveness? If so it's certainly long overdue. It can't really be a surprise to any but the most blindly loyal Tories that he's turned out to be a disaster as PM. If it were Corbyn as PM now and he'd turned out this badly I think we'd all be similarly unshocked. It's quite damning of our whole system that they were our only realistic choices.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 11:02:31 GMT
I wonder how long his missus will hang around when he loses the top job? We must be careful about straying too far into the stuff of gossip but, what the hell. The Downing Street court press, that is a very large chunk of the mainstream media, seem to think they know Carrie's mind on such matters. Cutting to the chase, the insider track on all this suggest's that she'll be in Johnson's ear telling him not to let the bastards grind him down. We're not going anywhere, darling. According to Cummings, who doesn't seem to have hit it off with Miss S, now Mrs J significantly, Johnson listens to his wife more than anyone else. Mrs J's advice? Dig in Mr J. They're not fit to lace your boots................ |
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Post by tancred on Jan 13, 2022 11:04:06 GMT
I've said before that Labour needs 40% as a minimum in order to have a safe majority. I stand by that assertion and the forecasting model proves it. Starmer has his work cut out, though I have to say the Tories are helping him a lot at the moment! The same YouGov figures of 38/28 produce a Labour majority of 55-60 if you apply a model with tactical voting (such as electoral calculus); I applied a figure of 50% of current Lab/LD/Green VI being willing to vote tactically. The Tories would have 181 seats to Labour's 354 in such a model. That's quite an assumption though. It's difficult to predict where and when tactical voting will occur. |
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Post by robert on Jan 13, 2022 11:09:06 GMT
Well my house is freehold and owned outright, so I suppose I am 😄 Reminds me of an old rhyme. She offered her honour to Offa Offa honoured the offer she made So Offa was on her and off her all night As the maid was properly laid. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 13, 2022 11:09:38 GMT
Focal data poll coming out later, some pre-reporting
68% think Johnson’s apology yesterday was not sincere
51% say Starmer is more trustworthy, and only 16% say Johnson
40% of respondents say Starmer would make the best PM, and 30% Johnson
64% of voters think Johnson should resign
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Post by James E on Jan 13, 2022 11:11:08 GMT
tancred It's generally fairly obvious that tactical voting happens in close Con/Lab and Con/LD contests. If you look at the results of any General Election over the past 30 years, the lowest LD vote shares are in the Con/Lab contests and the lowest Lab shares in the Con/LD ones. Incidentally, I think there's good evidence of how LD voters split in the re-allocated votes from my local mayoral election in Cambridgeshire last year. This was contested only by Con, Lab and LD, which meant that when the second preference votes were applied, we got figures for LD voters only. Only 16% did not give a second preference, and of the 84% who did, nearly three-quarters opted for Labour and a quarter for the Tories. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Cambridgeshire_and_Peterborough_mayoral_election
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 13, 2022 11:11:53 GMT
neilj Being a compulsive liar has an impact. From the same poll Keir Starmer has opened a huge lead over Johnson on the question of which leader is more trustworthy, the poll suggests. In April last year Johnson was ahead of Starmer (by 4 points - 38% to 34%). By mid December Starmer was well ahead (by 20 points - 44% to 24%). Since then the gap has got even larger; 51% say Starmer is more trustworthy, and only 16% say Johnson, giving Starmer a 35-point lead on this measure.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 11:14:57 GMT
I'm just off for a little stagger around the byways and highways of South Worcestershire, then I will return to enlighten you all with some typical caustic commentary. Oh.......... please don’t. |
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? Can't follow the thread for what the issue you are talking about is but don't think it was me "having a go". Maybe Statgeek?
? Can't follow the thread for what the issue you are talking about is but don't think it was me "having a go". Maybe Statgeek?
