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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2022 23:27:51 GMT
mercian Johnson can do multiple partings.
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 12, 2022 23:29:05 GMT
When I took my 12 month sabbatical from UKPR, I told my remaining small but loyal readership that I may return one day, probably at a time when Labour opened up a 10% lead in the polls.
And so it has come to pass, well the poll lead has. I returned somewhat prematurely but, in my rather irritating and glory-hunting way, I came back when things were looking better for Labour and I could be confident of luxuriating in favourable political circumstances.
As fellow football fans will appreciate, I only sing when I'm winning.
If things turn the other way, however, be assured that I will disappear in a puff of smoke, never to darken your doorsteps again.
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Jan 12, 2022 23:31:20 GMT
To be fair to Turk, he made his level pegging by March suggestion before this weeks revelations. And it's not March |
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Post by mercian on Jan 12, 2022 23:31:37 GMT
Evidently the UGOV poĺ was completed before PMQs. What would the result be if conducted tomorrow. Wow |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2022 23:31:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2022 23:33:48 GMT
and
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2022 23:34:28 GMT
FWIW I can’t stand Frankie Boyle and don’t find him funny at all. On the few occasions I did watch a bit of his stuff I just couldn’t figure out what he felt he was getting over to his audience. It just felt embarrassing and the laughter it produced felt awkward rather than genuine.
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Post by James E on Jan 12, 2022 23:34:51 GMT
Steve ; "Impact on polling already evident from the normally Tory favouring yougov" YouGov prompt for Greens and Refuk, which tends to reduce Con and Lab somewhat (but Lab more). Also, YouGov tend to be more volatile than other pollsters. Hence if you look back by just over a year to Nov and Dec 2020 (the last time Labour were getting poll leads), YouGov were then producing some of the better polls for Labour. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election |
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Post by jib on Jan 12, 2022 23:36:14 GMT
@tw
Pretty damning.
Johnson was the right PM pre-Brexit.
Post Brexit he offers virtually nothing of substance.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2022 23:36:50 GMT
Snap polls from ComRes (from y'day), several on their twitter feed so I'll just pick one:
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Post by mercian on Jan 12, 2022 23:39:25 GMT
mercian With all due respect- and I supported leaving the EU Superstate - the Brexit deal is not a baked cake. A new PM will be back to Brussels PDQ for amelioration. Why? commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/Extract: "The IMF, in its latest report on the global economy (published 12 October), lowered slightly its UK 2021 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 7.0% at its previous July forecast. The UK is still forecast to see the fastest growth in the G7 this year, after seeing the largest fall in GDP in 2020." |
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 12, 2022 23:41:41 GMT
With a poll like that I still think my prediction of him being gone by close of play tomorrow is a possibility. It has the feel of the response to the "dementia tax" announcement by Theresa May, the main difference being that the tax had some things to reccomend it, Mr Johnson's premiership, not so much.
The rest of his Cabinet have made themselves hostages to fortune, the only way out for them is to resign from the Cabinet, 'on a matter of principle", otherwise they will carry the smell of lying with them into the leadership campaign. In my opinion, of course.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2022 23:49:47 GMT
@tw Pretty damning. Johnson was the right PM pre-Brexit. Post Brexit he offers virtually nothing of substance. He was certainly the best person to win the Final Say, People's vote of GE'19 but now Brexit is done then he's become a liability and the 'villain'[1]. I'll post another bit of polling (again from y'day) Also this one. Note they say 'govt' and not Boris. Maybe CON MPs are now at 'tipping point' as jimjam 's point about cabinet and all CON MPs (ie CON HMG) needing to socially distance themselves to avoid 'contagion' (although removing the cancerous 'lump' before it spread throughout the body is possibly a better analogy) [1] As Dom might say (and know himself): You Either Die A Hero, Or You Live Long Enough To See Yourself Become The Villain |
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Post by tancred on Jan 12, 2022 23:54:57 GMT
Lots of talk here, but my feeling is that Johnson will be exonerated by the enquiry and he'll come out smelling of roses.
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Post by tancred on Jan 12, 2022 23:56:54 GMT
Impact on polling already evident from the normally Tory favouring yougov LAB: 38% (+1) CON: 28% (-5) LDEM: 13% (+3) GRN: 7% (+1) REFUK: 4% (-1) via @yougov Give it six months and the Tories will have closed much of the gap. Either BJ will be exonerated and survive, or he will be criticised and forced to go, in which case the new leader will have the usual honeymoon period. |
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Post by eor on Jan 12, 2022 23:56:54 GMT
Smogg dissing SCon leader perhaps not a wise move. Why does it matter? Genuinely curious, I'd rather got the impression (from various posters but you particularly) that "DRoss" was barely a figure of any relevance within Scottish politics, let alone the UK. |
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Post by eor on Jan 12, 2022 23:58:23 GMT
I've been toying with the idea of standing as an OMRLP candidate in the next GE, so did a bit of research. I loved this policy: "To unite the population, we will surround the UK with a large cardboard box so people can be both in and/or out of the EU. This will be known as Schrodinger’s Brexit." Do they still have the pledge to replace the House of Commons with a House of Cards to make it easier for the Prime Minister to deal with? |
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Post by tancred on Jan 12, 2022 23:58:32 GMT
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Post by jib on Jan 13, 2022 0:06:20 GMT
mercian With all due respect- and I supported leaving the EU Superstate - the Brexit deal is not a baked cake. A new PM will be back to Brussels PDQ for amelioration. Why? commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/Extract: "The IMF, in its latest report on the global economy (published 12 October), lowered slightly its UK 2021 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 7.0% at its previous July forecast. The UK is still forecast to see the fastest growth in the G7 this year, after seeing the largest fall in GDP in 2020." Because the relationship is toxic. As soon as Johnson is gone, the red carpet will be rolled out in Brussels for "constructive" discussions on the "fine" details. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 13, 2022 0:08:36 GMT
I'd just like to announce that I won't be posting again. I'm thoroughly fed up with being personally attacked and ridiculed by a certain number of, frankly, sanctimonious and po faced posters.
It's a shame because I was rather enjoying being back and communing with a few old friends, but enough is enough.
Good luck everybody and I hope all your dreams come true. I'm sorry I never became a Senior Member because I was looking forward to the accolade but when you've got to go, well, you've got to go. I won't say anymore because I might get emotional.
Goodbye.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 0:11:55 GMT
I'd just like to announce that I won't be posting again. I'm thoroughly fed up with being personally attacked and ridiculed by a certain number of, frankly, sanctimonious and po faced posters. It's a shame because I was rather enjoying being back and communing with a few old friends, but enough is enough. Good luck everybody and I hope all your dreams come true. I'm sorry I never became a Senior Member because I was looking forward to the accolade but when you've got to go, well, you've got to go. I won't say anymore because I might get emotional. Goodbye. I’m sorry I wrote what I did - and so often - Batty, but please don’t come back. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 0:12:41 GMT
Bugger....that came out wrong.
Still, never mind ay?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 0:13:54 GMT
Can I just say and I think this will be reported sooner or later, Sue Gray is a notorious Ray Donovan like "fixer" - appointing her to investigate is almost an admission in itself.
She'll get him off the hook but it will be party suicide.
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Post by guymonde on Jan 13, 2022 0:18:39 GMT
I'd just like to announce that I won't be posting again. I'm thoroughly fed up with being personally attacked and ridiculed by a certain number of, frankly, sanctimonious and po faced posters. It's a shame because I was rather enjoying being back and communing with a few old friends, but enough is enough. Good luck everybody and I hope all your dreams come true. I'm sorry I never became a Senior Member because I was looking forward to the accolade but when you've got to go, well, you've got to go. I won't say anymore because I might get emotional. Goodbye. Someone should lock the sherry cabinet |
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Post by eor on Jan 13, 2022 0:21:57 GMT
Lots of quibbling going on over details that I don't think matter. I'm yet to read anything that shows a clear reason why the piss-up in question was illegal.
Setting aside the question of whether the COVID laws even applied to the Downing St garden, I've not seen anything quoted that says socialising whilst at work was prohibited provided that social distancing, COVID hygiene and licensing restrictions were abided by.
Obviously that concept would have been moot almost everywhere;
- a minority of workplaces would have met the criteria to be allowed to have lots of staff working on site
- of those that did, most would not have had a recreational space in which a significant number of people could be whilst socially distanced etc
- of those that could, cost-effectiveness would have ruled out many (you can't stagger a lunch break across six hours of an 8 hour shift instead of 2 because you need to have far fewer people in the canteen at once)
- and of those it didn't, the danger (operationally) or impracticality (the number of workplaces outside of central London where the majority of people don't drive home from work must be vanishingly small) would mean this question never arose. But...
...was there ever anything in that version of the regulations that said that people legitimately at work couldn't then spend recreational time together provided all the other rules were met?
Don't get me wrong, I don't think this matters a shred politically! The tone is very much "we did, while you couldn't!" and that's the damage, politically. But I don't see that any of the poring over whether it was a party or should clearly have been understood as a party or whatever matters at all unless you can first show that having such a party was illegal. And I suspect that's where the Police's rather lampooned disinterest comes from too - that they are yet to see evidence of a crime to investigate.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 0:24:49 GMT
Battso: Apologies for what I just wrote, I’m afraid that I typed what I was thinking instead of what I had prepared beforehand.
Anyway, now we’ve got that over I look forward to your return tomorrow morning. I can’t leave because of my new lady friends so you might as well make a surprise grand re-entrance otherwise I will miss your posts far too much.
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Post by jib on Jan 13, 2022 0:27:46 GMT
eorI think you miss the point. The PM sets the standard, hopefully golden. This PM is on the verge of having to resign because he is a self-entitled pathological liar. Not good.
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Post by thexterminatingdalek on Jan 13, 2022 0:29:24 GMT
Not sure if anyone's picked up on one of Johnson's lines earlier, but "I should have found other ways to thank them"
It seems an odd thing to say while maintaining he didn't know what was happening until he wandered downstairs, and his spokesperson at the press conference afterwards said the PM wasn't on the email circulation list.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2022 0:31:57 GMT
Mercian...You posted this:
“ Extract: "The IMF, in its latest report on the global economy (published 12 October), lowered slightly its UK 2021 GDP growth forecast to 6.8%, from 7.0% at its previous July forecast. The UK is still forecast to see the fastest growth in the G7 this year, after seeing the largest fall in GDP in 2020."
I think it was in order to demonstrate that we are not worse off outside the EU and don’t need to at least try to mend a few fences.
Surely the last sentence of your quote clearly indicates why the UK might be forecast to have the fastest growth? We had the largest fall. Maybe you have the figures that show something different though?
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Post by eor on Jan 13, 2022 0:32:42 GMT
eor I think you miss the point. The PM sets the standard, hopefully golden. This PM is on the verge of having to resign because he is a self-entitled pathological liar. Not good. No, I think I failed to make mine clearly enough  I'm not saying it's ok, it's a very long way from it. I'm just suggesting that a fair bit of the energy being spent debating details on here is in vain, because whether it was a party or a gathering or whatever doesn't legally matter unless you can reasonably show that one outcome is legally different to the others here. And that politically the damage is absolutely done already and the details don't matter to that either. |
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