8-Jan-2022 : LAB: 39 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 11 / GRN: 5

[Deleted]

Jan 12, 2022 18:49:58 GMT statgeek said:

Since I'm in forum etiquette mode, if replying to someone, just add their name, and not quote them. If quoting them, it's bad form to include the entire post if it's not applicable.

And it's especially bad form to quote an entire embedded visual in a quote. Double reading for all, and not necessary.

Nuff said.

Yep I realise I was guilty of that "quoting" @tw's poll stuff.

I do try to edit the quoted post , but sometimes it won't go away 

I think cut and paste + @ is the way to go.

[Danny]

Jan 12, 2022 16:09:18 GMT crossbat11 said:

Just some musings about Johnson. Firstly, he's finished, I think. His goose was probably cooked with the public when the first revelations about Downing Street parties emerged a month or more ago. Not a question of "if" any longer, but more one of when and how he goes.

Surely, its never a question of 'if' a leader goes, but from the moment he is appointd the countdown to his leaving has begun.

Jan 12, 2022 16:15:38 GMT alec said:

Johnson is a total liar, and that has been his downfall, but it was also the reason for his success. He persuaded very opposite parts of his party that he was 'their man', and such is his gift for rootlass evasion, they all believed him. Even the ERG repeatedly backed him, as he rolled over to the EU in the Brexit talks.

And again, a prime minister is required to lie in the national interest, and expected to lie for the party.

He was chosen as leader for two reasons. His affable approach to the public, and because he had been the leader of the leave campaign. May only became PM because at that time the conservative party was still seeking ways to ameliorate or effectively prevent Brexit. Once they abandoned that, Johnson was the obvious choice. He has always been a scapegoat available for sacrifice following a bad brexit outcome. He has now become a scapegoat for covid management. Though any current leader always has scapegoat as a secondary job description.

Jan 12, 2022 17:38:13 GMT graham said:

It was ever thus that the opposition only tends to prosper when the government is perceived to be failing and found wanting.

Probably because there is often hardly room to squeeze a fag paper between them on policy. So its all about apparent effectiveness of the lot currently in.

[Deleted]

Unelected Prime Ministers are going to rear there heads again I expect.

Here's Full Fact on them :-

fullfact.org/news/unelected-prime-ministers-common-or-not/

[hireton]

The member of the UK Cabinet responsible for maintaining the precious Union gives his view on the importance of opinions from Scotland:

[oldnat]

Barbara


"To be grammatically correct it should be 'Four and twenty fewer'."

Linguistic imperialism!


LESS, adj., n.1, adv., conj., prep. Also double compar. form lesser, adv. (Sh. 1899 Shetland News (25 Feb.)). Sc. usages:



I. adj. 1. Smaller in number, fewer. Gen.Sc. Obs. in Eng.

Sc. 1799 W. Mitchell Scotticisms 51:

'No less than a hundred men.'

Abd.27 1959:

'There's less folk gings tae the Kirk nooadays.' (Dictionary of the Scots Language)

[alec]

Remarkable that it is actually being reported as news that cabinet ministers are backing the PM.

[Danny]

Zoe daily report R=0.8 London again, so I guess the rate of fall has been holdng steady for a while now. UK and England 1.0.

Daily cases in England now down a good 10% from peak. London down 50%.

Age groups as ever, all clearly falling bar under 20s. The new term thus far generated perhaps a 30% increase in that group. We await events with interest.

My prediction will be that although the youngsters will push up rates amongst their parents a bit, the outbreak is already fading because so many have been infected, so the youngster's outbreak wont spread. Something similar happened in September 2020 when schools reopened then. We saw a differential effect between the S and N, where cases rose in the N but not the S, attribuable to more cases in the South before schools closed nationally or lockdown was called. all about how many have been infected already, because thats how you end epidemics.

Overall zoe esimating about 2.7 million people currently have symptomatic covid infections. On top of that you have the proportion asymptomatic, and the largely indeterminate number with infections below the sensitivity of testing, particularly lateral flow (zoe validate their reports by issuing tests to respondents, though sensitivity is unlikely to affect their numbers because they only report symptomatic people. But for other studies its a guess how many cases are effectively undetectable and always have been. In all probability this number is pretty high, because none of the surveys would seem to account for enough cases to explain our effective herd immunity developed to the early strains individually).

[lululemonmustdobetter]

So it looks like the Tory backbenchers are looking to see what the next set of polls say, from what’s being reported they aren’t close to 54 yet - was his apology enough to placate enough of the electorate? If Labour's lead reaches double digits in the next couple of weeks then he is toast - but I don’t think it will, which means Johnson is most likely to survive till the next crisis which will either be cost of living issue giving Labour a prolonged double digit lead or disastrous performance in the local elections.

[jib]

lululemonmustdobetter

Indeed. Double digit lead for Labour highly likely once the price cap goes. The only way to shift the burden from lower earners is to hit the middle earners. Catch 22.

On COVID: massive case rate now in Sweden.

[Danny]

Jan 12, 2022 19:30:15 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

So it looks like the Tory backbenchers are looking to see what the next set of polls say, from what’s being reported they aren’t close to 54 yet

Its been mentioned before, but the effect of receiving 54 letters would be to instigate a vote which could not be repeated for a year should Johnson win. It might therefore act to guarantee him his position for another year should they move too fast.

Many minded to remove him might therefore not send any letters unless they were certain a majority agreed.

Jan 12, 2022 19:40:35 GMT jib said:

On COVID: massive case rate now in Sweden.

Which is excellent news if covid has reduced in severeity to just another corona cold.  SA reckons to have resolved their covid problem with 30% vaccination and 100% omicron infection.

[James E]

Jan 12, 2022 17:53:58 GMT jimjam said:

Turk,

''Starmers personal ratings are still way behind his party'

Monday's R&W which has the leading 'at the moment' introduction Starmer was on 37%

The headline Lab number was 39%.

Actually, on the standard 'Best Prime Minsiter' question, Starmer has led Johnson more often, and by wider margins than Labour have led the Tories in voting Intention polls.

And looking at polling since Partygate started on 8th Dec, Starmer's leads of 13%, 9% and 7% over Johnson are somewhat ahead of the Labour polling leads which have ranged from 3% to 9%.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Johnson_vs_Starmer

Two of the recent polls are directly comparable to VI: with Survation (10 Dec) Starmer led Johnson 39-30 in the context of a poll giving Lab a 39-32 lead over Con. And with Ipsos Mori (3-10Dec) Starmer led Johnson 44-31 in the context of a VI lead of 39-34.  

A reminder, too: neither of Starmer's two immediate predecssors achieved a lead even once as 'Best Prime Minister'.

[jib]

Danny

Excellent news on the success of vaccine.

Omicron isn't such good news if you were one of the idiots advocating herd immunity through "natural" infection.

[graham]

Jan 12, 2022 19:41:03 GMT Danny said:

Jan 12, 2022 19:30:15 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

So it looks like the Tory backbenchers are looking to see what the next set of polls say, from what’s being reported they aren’t close to 54 yet

Its been mentioned before, but the effect of receiving 54 letters would be to instigate a vote which could not be repeated for a year should Johnson win. It might therefore act to guarantee him his position for another year should they move too fast.

Many minded to remove him might therefore not send any letters unless they were certain a majority agreed.

Jan 12, 2022 19:40:35 GMT jib said:

On COVID: massive case rate now in Sweden.

Which is excellent news if covid has reduced in severeity to just another corona cold.  SA reckons to have resolved their covid problem with 30% vaccination and 100% omicron infection.

Theoretically that is correct - just as it was when Theresa May survived the VONC in her leadership. Yet within six months or so she was gone in the wake of the disatrous 2019 Euro elections. Apparently it is not difficult for the 1922 Committee to adjust the procedural rules - should there be an urgent need to do so.

[oldnat]

crofty

"It’s wot ladies do best surely?" (anent typing)

Are you unaware of the offensive sexist imagery involved in that comment? For example, in this WWI song, "the phrase which stands out is 'lady typist'. Rhythms, rhyme patterns, and the logic of the sense require something else: something which rhymes with 'war'... What could be purer than a 'typist'? A 'lady typist'. And yet the phrase is a comic substitution for 'whore'.[1]

I don’t want to join the army
I don’t want to go to war
I’d rather stay at home
Around the street to roam
Living on the earnings of a lady typist.
I don’t want a bayonet in my belly
I don’t want my bollocks shot away
I’d rather stay in England
Merry merry England
And fornicate my bleedin’ life away

war-poets.blogspot.com/2009/02/pimps-prostitutes-and-lady-typists-new.html

[1] The rhyming of "war" and "whore" indicates that this song's lyrics originated in a territory that pronounces the country of "Wales" identically with the cetaceous mammals "whales". A further (though not conclusive) indicator is the singer's wish to remain in "England".

[Deleted]

Jan 12, 2022 18:49:58 GMT statgeek said:

Nuff said.

Very true.

[crossbat11]

Martin Kettle has just written an article in the Guardian about how guaranteed a success Sunak may or may not be as a replacement Tory leader and PM. Like me, he has his doubts. He'd represent another extraordinary punt and risk by the Tory membership, such is his inexperience (MP only since 2015) and his relatively short time as a front bencher and Minister. Economic clouds are gathering too and Lord Sunak of Furlough's white charger has been consigned to the stables.

Kettle does pay tribute to his swift political ascent though and compliments the Tory Party for possibly selecting the first PM of Asian ethnicity.

One of the comments below Kettle's article did catch my eye though. Pithily, the poster pointed out that the elevation of a public school and Oxford educated billionaire to the Tory leadership was breaking fewer moulds than Kettle was rather over generously claiming.

[barbara]

Jan 12, 2022 19:50:32 GMT oldnat said:

crofty

"It’s wot ladies do best surely?" (anent typing)

Are you unaware of the offensive sexist imagery involved in that comment? For example, in this WWI song, "the phrase which stands out is 'lady typist'. Rhythms, rhyme patterns, and the logic of the sense require something else: something which rhymes with 'war'... What could be purer than a 'typist'? A 'lady typist'. And yet the phrase is a comic substitution for 'whore'.[1]

I'm risking the wrath of Statgeek by quoting part of your post!
Interesting. The version common when I was growing up was: " living off the earnings of a well born lady."
Regional variations no doubt.

[Deleted]

Barbara - I wouldn’t be too concerned...

[oldnat]

Barbara

The link I gave also includes a reference to a similar version "(Another version of the song refers, just as knowingly, to living off the earnings of a 'high-class lady'.)"

There is yet another version which, more explicitly says "And live on the earnings of a well-paid whore".

The polling implications of these for VI are unclear. 

[hireton]

More Cabinet respect for the Scottish branch of the Tory Party:

[lululemonmustdobetter]

oldnat

The link I gave also includes a reference to a similar version "(Another version of the song refers, just as knowingly, to living off the earnings of a 'high-class lady'.)"

There is yet another version which, more explicitly says "And live on the earnings of a well-paid whore"

I must have lived a very shelterd life as I have never heard of any of these songs before. 

[oldnat]

Hireton

BBS has been keeping track of Scots Tories calling for Johnson to go

MPs 1/6 : Constituency MSPs 3/5 : List MSPs 17/26

The potential for Scots Tories to revert to their pre-1965 position will exercise commentators for a while.

[mercian]

Jan 12, 2022 19:51:12 GMT crossbat11 said:

Kettle does pay tribute to his swift political ascent though and compliments the Tory Party for possibly selecting the first PM of Asian ethnicity.

What nobody seems prepared to say is that that characteristic might be a disadvantage in many of the so-called Red Wall seats, particularly those areas that have suffered from grooming gangs and the like.

[barbara]

Jan 12, 2022 20:27:23 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I must have lived a very shelterd life as I have never heard of any of these songs before. 

You're too young I suspect.  I was born in 1953 and in the 50s these WW1 songs were very much around quoted by our own parents for whom that period was their childhood.
My grandmother was born in 1887 and I was 24 when she died!

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jan 12, 2022 20:29:39 GMT mercian said:

Jan 12, 2022 19:51:12 GMT crossbat11 said:

Kettle does pay tribute to his swift political ascent though and compliments the Tory Party for possibly selecting the first PM of Asian ethnicity.

What nobody seems prepared to say is that that characteristic might be a disadvantage in many of the so-called Red Wall seats, particularly those areas that have suffered from grooming gangs and the like.

Hi Mercian - actually a couple of weeks back Colin and I had an exchange of views on the possible part race could play if Sunak was to replace Johnson. 

[bardin1]

Jan 12, 2022 18:51:14 GMT hireton said:

 
B. Setting up an independent Scottish Tory Party.

I guess they could call it The Independence Con party and kill two birds with one stone?

[mercian]

Jan 12, 2022 20:40:19 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Jan 12, 2022 20:29:39 GMT mercian said:

What nobody seems prepared to say is that that characteristic might be a disadvantage in many of the so-called Red Wall seats, particularly those areas that have suffered from grooming gangs and the like.

Hi Mercian - actually a couple of weeks back Colin and I had an exchange of views on the possible part race could play if Sunak was to replace Johnson. 

Sorry. Mea Culpa for not reading every post and/or for being forgetful.  I didn't mean just on here though.  I don't obsessively follow news and opinion channels, but probably do so more than most people, and I've not seen it discussed publicly.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

mercian

Sorry. Mea Culpa for not reading every post and/or for being forgetful. I didn't mean just on here though. I don't obsessively follow news and opinion channels, but probably do so more than most people, and I've not seen it discussed publicly

No need to apologise, no ones perfect - do you think it would be a factor? In addition, the fact that he is fiscally conservative by inclination would imply he would not be so big on the levelling up agenda.

[oldnat]

Smogg dissing SCon leader perhaps not a wise move.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jan 12, 2022 20:33:05 GMT barbara said:

Jan 12, 2022 20:27:23 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

I must have lived a very shelterd life as I have never heard of any of these songs before. 

You're too young I suspect.  I was born in 1953 and in the 50s these WW1 songs were very much around quoted by our own parents for whom that period was their childhood.
My grandmother was born in 1887 and I was 24 when she died!

My grandmother was born in 1916 (in Dublin just after the uprising) and I was 14 when she died. She was incredibly right-wing, swore drank and smoked like a trooper - taught me how to knit, play cards and pick a horse in a race.