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Post by steamdrivenandy on Feb 6, 2022 17:54:36 GMT
Close, but not quite. There is a bit of a 't' in there, but you have to say the whole of "Witum" very fast and as one word. I can say it, but not sure how best to write it. I would say Wit-am, which is the traditional local pronunciation and basically right, since a ham is a farm or small settlement. Per wikipedia - "The name Witham is a composite name, part Brythonic (probably from a cognate of Gwydd = "Woods" in modern Welsh) and "ham" a typical Saxon ending." We need more of this folks! Barnard Castle Barnard deriving from him two doors down called Bernard but them being Scots it came out different. Or A derivation of barnyard where those were sent who wouldn't shut the barn door. The term 'you weren't born in a barn tha knows' has some link to this theory. Castle is a shortening of the term Knight Castile, which for those relatively new to the world is/was a brand of soap first made in 1919 and now a Unilever brand. It was looked upon most favourably in the Tees valley area, hence its adoption by Bernard who had a monthly delivery by Ocado. |
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Post by ladyvalerie on Feb 6, 2022 17:55:04 GMT
steve @"Happy to use derogatory characterisation " Yes -I know you are . The Happiness shines out of your social media arse. Charming. Someone got out of bed the wrong side this morning. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 17:55:57 GMT
The Witham Express is heading towards some of the more boring territories often explored in excruciating detail on UKPR1. Move on boys, move on. Resident of 15 Redshank Crescent, SWF 1979-1981 In memory of the great Vic Marigold, resident of Danbury who passed on many years ago now and never gave me my pickaxe back. Maybe he thought there was a chance that he would still need it? |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 17:59:15 GMT
We need more of this folks! “Barnard Castle Barnard deriving from him two doors down called Bernard but them being Scots it came out different. Or A derivation of barnyard where those were sent who wouldn't shut the barn door. The term 'you weren't born in a barn tha knows' has some link to this theory. Castle is a shortening of the term Knight Castile, which for those relatively new to the world is/was a brand of soap first made in 1919 and now a Unilever brand. It was looked upon most favourably in the Tees valley area, hence its adoption by Bernard who had a monthly delivery by Ocado. F**k me Andy! I was being ironic !!!!!!L!  <<<<<<<<<<< best ironic emoji I could buy. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:00:02 GMT
steve @"Happy to use derogatory characterisation " Yes -I know you are . The Happiness shines out of your social media arse. Charming. Someone got out of bed the wrong side this morning. Dunno about “this”...... |
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Post by thylacine on Feb 6, 2022 18:03:20 GMT
Surely the Estuarian translation is Wi'um? Close, but not quite. There is a bit of a 't' in there, but you have to say the whole of "Witum" very fast and as one word. I can say it, but not sure how best to write it. I would say Wit-am, which is the traditional local pronunciation and basically right, since a ham is a farm or small settlement. Per wikipedia - "The name Witham is a composite name, part Brythonic (probably from a cognate of Gwydd = "Woods" in modern Welsh) and "ham" a typical Saxon ending." I would pronounce it Witerm where the erm is pronounced as in the erm word used commonly to fill awkward spaces in conversations! Rather appropriate for a space in Essex. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Feb 6, 2022 18:04:55 GMT
The Witham Express is heading towards some of the more boring territories often explored in excruciating detail on UKPR1. Move on boys, move on. Resident of 15 Redshank Crescent, SWF 1979-1981 In memory of the great Vic Marigold, resident of Danbury who passed on many years ago now and never gave me my pickaxe back. Ah SWF, home of Gandalf's Ride, Celeborn Street, Arwen Grove and all those other weird Tolkien influenced road names. They must've come along way after our residence. All the street round our way were named for waterfowl. Fond memories of the gorgeous young ladies at Plantnome Garden Centre on the Woodham Road - gracious they'll be 60 plus now. We were there when Brenda visited, the police even checked under the manhole cover outside our house and sealed it with tape. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:10:15 GMT
Yes of course as a democrat I agree. He won a huge victory in Dec 2019 and he therefore has legitimacy until the next election is called or one of the scenarios you describe above arises. I would just add however that I believe he is a corrupt liar and I will use my freedom of speech in a 'free' society to describe him as such. But that is of course the fiction that Johnson wants you to believe.
As we all know in truth his mandate as PM comes from commanding a majority in the Commons, not from the electorate ( did anyone in here have a ballot paper on which his name was printed ? )
In that sense he is no different from any other MP.
If he loses that majority in the Commons he loses his mandate to be PM.
You could like Rees Mogg, subscribe to the theory that we now have a de facto Presidential system, and Johnson won the election single handed and thus all the Conservatives in the Commons are there by dint of his great benificence.
That would of course mean that should Johnson resign then Rees Mogg would have lost his mandate as MP for North East Somerset and so should resign his seat and fight a by-election.
Somehow I don't see that happening
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Post by oldnat on Feb 6, 2022 18:15:26 GMT
I think a lot of floating voters will make their choice based on the party leaders. As these voters effectively decide elections the character and charisma of said leaders is important, even if it isn't supposed to be. While I think that is often true (in the 21st century, perhaps especially so in England where the PM is the head of UKGE as well as UKGov) it is probably only one of the many factors that influence the VI of people who are uncertain as to which of the parties standing in their constituencies to vote for. Not infrequently, the leader's name is used as shorthand for the party (@tw did that in his recent post), even though the usage is inaccurate. There are probably few "wholly floating" voters - who might vote for any party or none - but many who will move their votes between parties that seem, to them, similar enough to be possible recipients of their votes. It's easier for the media to concentrate on individuals rather that organisations, so they can laud or demonise a leader in order to create a perception among those who don't pay close attention to politics, but the enormous patronage power enjoyed by the head of the Executive in a democracy probably means that more attention should be paid to underlying moral characteristics of the putative PM, rather than the banal "which would you prefer to have a drink with" nonsense that the tabloids sometimes pay pollsters to ask. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:18:26 GMT
@tw
Most of your comment is totally irrelevant to my response to your question.
For example, the majority of the GB (or even the Scottish) electorate believing UKGE that "the worst is behind us" doesn't materially affect the judgment of decision makers as to whether that is a likely scenario. ?!?! You haven't answered the question and you mentioned Covid. The question WRT to starting the process for IndyRef2 was: If not now (soon) then when?I'll make the case for soon: 1. Most folks (probably also in Scotland) think 'the worst is behind us' WRT to Covid (ie a legitimate excuse for delay has become much less significant) 2. You have a UKGE PM who Scots despise (see polling), that should help 'Yes' via higher GOTV for your side, picking up more 'maybe-laters' and possibly some 'No' folks abstaining. 3. The longer you wait the more the trade ties to EU will adjust such that Scottish trade with EU (v rUK) would create a more difficult case for Indy 4. If, as currently seems likely, LAB win most seats in GE'24 then a lot of Scots might want to see how those goes (ie the opposite of #2 WRT to which side achieves the higher GOTV and picks up the 'maybe-laters') 5. SNP Holyrood'21 manifesto (which was held whilst Covid was a major issue) where a 'promise' to hold IndyRef2 was made, see page4 Choose Scotland's Future in an Independence Referendum, after the Covid crisis is over. www.snp.org/manifesto/I fully respect that 'after the Covid crisis is over' is vague but FWIU (and please correct me if I'm wrong) then Strurgeon is no longer of the 'Zero Covid' view and also accepts that we will have to 'live with Covid' so if Covid is still being trotted out as the excuse for delay then is the 'plan' to never actually hold IndyRef2 or even see if ScotGov has the legal right to unilaterally call one? If you/anyone else wants to make the case for continuing to delay (and note this is just to see 'if' you can, you'd still be able to decide on the 'when') then please do so. |
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Post by steve on Feb 6, 2022 18:19:26 GMT
@crofty
Oh I don't know it's good to have a chortle.
Bit sad mind you if this was their best laugh of the week.
I thought my earlier effort of
"How many Spaffer fans does it take to change a lightbulb?
None he tells them he's got it done and they just sit in the dark and clap."
Was at least worth a condescending smirk!
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Post by oldnat on Feb 6, 2022 18:21:08 GMT
SDA
I have heard it said [1] that folk on Tyneside deny that those on Teesside have the remotest acquaintance with soap.
[1] No I haven't. I made that up, but it seems quite a likely jibe used in local rivalry.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 6, 2022 18:23:45 GMT
@ pjw 12.04 pm On a platform was a gaggle of girls obviously heading to Cambridge for entertainment, and also a/the station attendant, who held a pair of binoculars. So, as I understand it, you believe that you understand Essex because you have visited it a few times. I've had three holidays in Wales but I don't consider myself qualified to know what the man on the Caernarvon omnibus is thinking. Your 'Essex girls' anecdote is as much a stereotype as if I said I thought everyone from Preston eats black pudding and wears a flat cap or all Scotsman are mean and play the bagpipes (which - to be clear - I don't definitely don't think). , what have you got against Essex? Trying not to get too offended by your posts as I spent a fair part of my childhood living there, and tbh it's not really different to the rest of the country. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:28:43 GMT
I think a lot of floating voters will make their choice based on the party leaders. As these voters effectively decide elections the character and charisma of said leaders is important, even if it isn't supposed to be. Not infrequently, the leader's name is used as shorthand for the party (@tw did that in his recent post), even though the usage is inaccurate. Sturgeon is leader of SNP and FM of Scotland - are you saying she has no power over SNP policy or Scot.Gov? Her picture is on front of SNP's manifesto and pretty sure she's mentioned the importance of ' Scotland’s Future, Scotland’s Choice' more than once (although perhaps not recently for fear folks will ask ' if not now (soon) then when' as I have and she'd have to mumble swerve an answer in the same way you have) I appreciate I did (and do) sometimes state SNP when I should really say Scot.Gov but since SGP are also pro-Indy then on the issue of Indy they are aligned. |
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Post by oldnat on Feb 6, 2022 18:30:03 GMT
@tw
Make any case you want about anything that you want. That is your right.
Equally it is my right to ignore whatever you are on about.
ScotGov are well equipped to take what they see as the most appropriate timing for the introduction of the bill, and are well aware of the pros and cons of the options. There is nothing new in the case you make.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:31:58 GMT
So, as I understand it, you believe that you understand Essex because you have visited it a few times. I've had three holidays in Wales but I don't consider myself qualified to know what the man on the Caernarvon omnibus is thinking. Your 'Essex girls' anecdote is as much a stereotype as if I said I thought everyone from Preston eats black pudding and wears a flat cap or all Scotsman are mean and play the bagpipes (which - to be clear - I don't definitely don't think). , what have you got against Essex? Trying not to get too offended by your posts as I spent a fair part of my childhood living there, and tbh it's not really different to the rest of the country.I did a job in Canvey Island once ... does that qualify me as an Essex Girl ?
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 6, 2022 18:33:50 GMT
Hi davwel , what have you got against Essex? Trying not to get too offended by your posts as I spent a fair part of my childhood living there, and tbh it's not really different to the rest of the country. I did a job in Canvey Island once ... does that qualify me as an Essex Girl ?  |
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Post by alec on Feb 6, 2022 18:35:19 GMT
One for @danny -
The paper by 3 anti lockdown economists that found just a 0.2% fall in deaths from lockdowns that Danny quoted is - you've guessed it - useless.
This is one of a number of technical take downs of their methodology, which seems pretty bizarre to say the least. This is something that won't make any peer reviewed publication of any standing, and is another example of how the worthy rush to pre-print created by the pandemic in order to get findings out quickly has a much darker side. It enables completely bogus research to be published, which is then picked up by distorted media outlets and people like @danny who are begging to be fooled by anything that looks remotely like evidence.
These papers never get properly published, and very often actually get formlly withdrawn, but they've already been embedded in the conspiracy theorists web.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:36:12 GMT
I did a job in Canvey Island once ... does that qualify me as an Essex Girl ? Depends - do you have any white stilettos? And matching handbag ! |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Feb 6, 2022 18:39:29 GMT
Depends - do you have any white stilettos? And matching handbag ! Your in! Next step is the tanning salon!  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:40:14 GMT
@tw Make any case you want about anything that you want. That is your right. Equally it is my right to ignore whatever you are on about. ScotGov are well equipped to take what they see as the most appropriate timing for the introduction of the bill, and are well aware of the pros and cons of the options. There is nothing new in the case you make. Well if you actually want Indy then 'bon chance' with the 'dither and delay' strategy. Of course you, Sturgeon, SNP and Scot.Gov might not want to 'Get Indy Done' and given the amount of money you get from UK then I can appreciate the 'Unionist' case. Since I see Scotland as economic and political 'baggage' the genuine SNATS and I would agree on the importance of 'Get Indy Done' asap and take the earliest 'good' opportunity to do so. There will never be a perfect time but if Sturgeon is 'chicken' then that perhaps explains the choice of yellow as party colours  PS I can see that waiting until after May LEs (and hope Boris is still UK PM into those at that will likely help SNP GOTV and hurt SCON/Unionist GOTV) might be a good idea so I'll pop you back on the hidden list and ask the same 'If not now (soon) then when' question then (which you can ignore of course - but at some point Scottish voters who voted SNP in H'21 might ask the same question!) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Scottish_local_elections |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:46:03 GMT
I've got three Essex girls in my house right now. So, given all the others with Essex associations I think Davwel's picked on the wrong county.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:53:54 GMT
I've got three Essex girls in my house right now. So, given all the others with Essex associations I think Davwel's picked on the wrong county. I missed my turn off North from the M25 and doubled back through a section of Essex and I was really impressed with how beautiful and rural that section was. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 18:54:57 GMT
I've got three Essex girls in my house right now. Not sure what to think about that....  |
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Post by oldnat on Feb 6, 2022 18:58:08 GMT
@tw may not see this, so I post this merely to point out that there is nothing new in his arguments (or his characterisation of SNP/SGP). These are regularly trotted out in Scotland by the obsessives, as are the arguments on the other side.
Sensible politicians understand that there are seldom simple answers to complex problems. That is as true of constitutional as well as other socio-economic and political issues.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 19:04:14 GMT
Hi davwel , what have you got against Essex? Trying not to get too offended by your posts as I spent a fair part of my childhood living there, and tbh it's not really different to the rest of the country. I did a job in Canvey Island once ... does that qualify me as an Essex Girl ?
I think from memory the locals referred more to being 'on' rather than 'in' Canvey, so your case for qualification might be a little undermined. |
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Post by Danny on Feb 6, 2022 19:05:39 GMT
1. People whose relatives & friends died in Care Homes because of government incompetence are right to be angry. Ditto anger because the government was slow to lockdown with disastrous consequences. 2. People whose funerals, etc were curtailed & those denied access to dying relatives in hospitals & care homes are angry because they were made to look fools. People are angry about their loss, about symbols & their violated pride. But If lockdown measures were necessary then their sacrifices make them rational patriots not fools. I left seclusion in the 2nd lockdown to visit a dying relative in hospital. I got [mild] Covid immediately. 3. The mental health toll is awful as you say. But people should be angry because of the government's failure to deal with it. Being angry about parties does nothing for suffering young people. Ditto the chaos & sickness in schools, NHS waiting lists, anti-vaxxers clogging ICUs etc. 4. People should be angry about Tory corruption re PPE & Sunak writing off billions of fraud. Today I was talking to someone who has just had covid for the first time. He described the experience of getting up one morning, having breakfast and discovering he could taste nothing at all. How this was unique in his experience. There has been research on this, i think Zoe discussed from their base of people reporting symptoms how this emerged as the signature symptom most clearly distinctive of covid. How others have reported it is different to anything they have previously experienced. I had this symptom in 2019 as part of a bad flu significantly affecting my lungs, as again is very distinctive of covid. I have no doubt i had covid, in 2019. It was directly traceable to a traveller from Wuhan in China. Hastings as a whole had hardly any cases of covid in the official spring outbreak, so I assume the entire town had covid in the winter of 2019-20 before counting began. And no one noticed. Dont blame government for late imposition of lockdown, because it did no good at all. Covid would have ended with much the same mortality had we done nothing. But we would have ended up with an additional £400bn to the credit of the Uk government, and probably a similar or greater sum in the hands of the public. Imposition of lockdown cost the Uk a trillion pounds. Recently a paper was mentioned here written by three senior economists. sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022/01/A-Literature-Review-and-Meta-Analysis-of-the-Effects-of-Lockdowns-on-COVID-19-Mortality.pdfThis concluded lockdowns saved maybe 0.2% of deaths which would otherwise have occurred. Thats 2 per thousand. In the Uk there have been about 150,000 deaths, so thats saving about 300 people. At a cost of more than a billion pounds each. This is soooooooo far beyond the normal amount of money we are wiling to spend to save the life of one person as to be starkly incredible. So very much could have been achived by completely ignoring covid and spending this sum in different ways. Everyone should be angry that lockdown was ever imposed and any nation deviated from the tried and tested plan of managed spread, oriiginally endorsed by the WHO. The paper explores the reason this terrible mistake was made and isolated two main threads. First, theoretical modelling of risk from covid which erred vastly on over estimating its risk. Second, a tendency for all governments to copy each other instead of trying to follow a rational course based upon facts. Politicians almost universally decided that doing the same as the rest was their safest strategy. China reacted with a hard lockdown, and everyone copied despite there never being any real evidence to justify this.
Sweden didnt copy, minimised all restrictions, and ended up no worse than anyone else. And was massively ridiculed on UKPR and anywhere else for getting it right.
So go attack your politicians, both lab and con, for failing to see the science which I have been reporting since the renewed outbreaks of late summer 2020. Government advisors must also have spotted these facts. Of course government politicians and advisors ignored rules which had no purpose.
The paper singles out Prof Ferguson and his modelling group at Imperial college for creating such a dire and unfounded fear of covid in the UK. Doubly ironic when he was dismissed as a government advisor for himself ignoring the rules after he had recovered from covid and concluded there was no further risk from his ceasing to isolate. So much harm caused by so few.
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Post by alec on Feb 6, 2022 19:13:00 GMT
@danny - "This concluded lockdowns saved maybe 0.2% of deaths which would otherwise have occurred. Thats 2 per thousand. In the Uk there have been about 150,000 deaths, so thats saving about 300 people. At a cost of more than a billion pounds each."
Skip back a page to my post about that paper. It's total rubbish, from biaised economists who campaigned against lockdown. A seriously flawed methodology tht is so bad it would be better used as toilet paper.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2022 19:14:21 GMT
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Post by mercian on Feb 6, 2022 19:19:03 GMT
Sweden didnt copy, minimised all restrictions, and ended up no worse than anyone else. And was massively ridiculed on UKPR and anywhere else for getting it right.
I've just checked the latest (automatically updated) figures on Wikipedia. Norway has had 268 deaths/million, Finland 370, Denmark 664 and Sweden 1592. |
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