neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 11, 2022 18:24:06 GMT
Another tory breaking cover
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 18:35:02 GMT
Colin, A/ I felt Turks prediction was optimistic from an ROC perspective when he made it but not beyond credibility. I limited myself to saying 'we shall see' as anything beyond would not add to the discourse and being Labour myself I will inevitably be biased. B/ I think it is fair to say that the latest BYOB story makes Turks forecast less likely and I guess he would say the same. Caveat would be that if Johnson goes soon the leadership contest, with wall to wall coverage of the Tories, would probably lead to a partial recovery in the polls. A/ Is there going to be a GE in Mar'22? I'm old enough to remember some of the 'optimistic' views of ABCON folks into GE'19 and you yourself stated we might well see a 'tie' poll within MoE. B/ We'll see. Boris lying[1], party gate, etc might well be 'priced in' (ie yet another story won't make an impact) OR it might be enough to see some folks with 'cognitive dissonance' move from CON'19 DK to LAB or CON'19 DK 'differential' (relative to LAB) increase again. [1] EG see latest R&W and note 'Tells the Truth' differential /photo/1 |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 18:39:32 GMT
R&W have also noted that folks would prefer Rishi to Boris so ABCONs might want to careful what they wish for (Sky poll showed similar and if Boris crashes out then I don't think any of the ROC/CON folks on UKPR2 would shed a tear - maybe pop open a bottle of English fizz though  ) |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 18:50:53 GMT
Final nugget from R&W (more discussion on the Issue Specific Covid thread) then given it's historic correlation to VI then IF we can and do move back to Plan A later this month then that might well give a small boost to CON VI (more likely from narrowing in the 'differentials' of DK+WNV between CON and LAB). As Covid generally moves out of the news and we learn to 'live with Covid' then will whatever Boris did in previous lockdowns still have much salience? TBC of course and for 2022 then Boris's future is not set - there is no fate but what he makes for himself (with some help/hinderance from cabinet[1] and CON MPs)
NB Most of the 'No' are likely to think measures should be stricter but some will want think they are too strict. Some polling companies break the question out further and plurality is currently 'goldilocks' (ie not too strict, not to light)
[1] See previous comments and how much 'help' Rishi will be prepared to give. If press focus shifts to Rishi 'helping out to heat in' then could be a small boost for CON VI from that (note in the R&W findings on 'characteristics' that Boris is way behind Starmer on 'Cares about people like me' and 'Understands the problems afflicting the country' - so perhaps much of the bad news is priced in and the old saying 'sell the rumour, buy the fact' will apply? (not a prediction - just a plausible scenario))
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 11, 2022 19:04:32 GMT
Follow the Science - if it's right! You have a slightly Whiggish view of the process. The main architect of the 1848 Act was Edwin Chadwick who believed the contemporary theory that disease was conveyed by the miasma which hung over stagnant cesspits, etc. He had these flushed into the Thames in the epidemic of '48, the major source of water for London. As cholera is a water-borne disease, this spread rather than contained the disease! Another example then of following the science only for it to turn out to make matters worse. One thing thats certain about modern medicine is that in 50 years time there will be lots of things we do now which will have become unacceptable. |
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Post by somerjohn on Jan 11, 2022 19:11:20 GMT
TWs: The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves
That's a bummer. There was me banking on my birthday being the same date as usual this year, but if the future isn't set...
And if my house gets struck by lightning, it will be nobody's fault but mine. Yeah, right...
**********
If I've only just considering these nostrums of the TWs and realised how vacuous they are.
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Post by jimjam on Jan 11, 2022 19:12:10 GMT
Trev - I may have said that and have no reason to doubt your recall.
In my defence, my guess is that it was before the deal with the EU was unexpectedly reached.
I think from then on a Tory majority was always probable.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 11, 2022 19:15:48 GMT
Interesting debate that since the grounds where these parties took place are covered by cameras watched by police officers, why no one intervened to prevent an illegal gathering of politicians?
Surely not another example of one rule for them and one for everyone else?
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 11, 2022 19:16:45 GMT
I am off line for a while now, practise of a Beethoven piece for a concert, but will try to reply to any reasonable comment later.
Are you doing Beethoven’s third Mandolin Concerto? That’s my favourite. Not this time, a special arrangement of the allegretto from the 7th symphony. Some tricky corners on the mandolin which would be much more straightforward on the violin. Also a nice Sonata (number IV) by William Boyce. It is nice to have a break from the Vivaldi for a change. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 19:25:49 GMT
Ooh I've reached double figures . Open another bottle of wine Modom. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 19:30:57 GMT
mandolinist Yes, Vivaldi is wonderful but, unlike Bach, for example, doesn’t lend itself to incessant playing. Where do you perform/with which orchestra? Paul
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Post by barbara on Jan 11, 2022 19:34:29 GMT
Are you doing Beethoven’s third Mandolin Concerto? That’s my favourite. Not this time, a special arrangement of the allegretto from the 7th symphony. Some tricky corners on the mandolin which would be much more straightforward on the violin. Also a nice Sonata (number IV) by William Boyce. It is nice to have a break from the Vivaldi for a change. Very impressive! |
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 11, 2022 19:36:19 GMT
My granchildren's school has just informed parents there is a high risk of them having to switch to home learning because of high staff absence. There is no mention of children of essential services, NHS, distribution, education(!) etc being able to attend during such shutdowns. This feels like a major problem brewing and one which could seriously affect VI.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 19:37:03 GMT
A week is a long time in politics, Mar'22 is 2mths away but most importantly a GE is over 2yrs away. Plenty of time for 'events dear boy' WRT to your view that CON cabinet members will be 'tarred with the same brush' as Boris (paraphrased) then I'm old enough to remember Starmer being part of Corbyn's shadow cabinet. I'm not sure if you specifically argued at the time WRT to Corbyn's shadow cabinet that is better to fix the problems from within (applying a nose peg, biding your time, etc) than resign but other than Frosty who do you think will resign and why? The only scenario I can see is if a VoNC is imminent and the numbers are likely to force Boris out (we've discussed the issue of 15%-50% before). Boris has individually made a load of gaffes but as with Starmer then a 'new broom can sweep the room' dumping the baggage with Boris. I seem to remember former Corbyn shadow cabinet member Starmer used to use the slogan ' Under New Management' when he took over (not that he does slogans of course  ) |
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Post by mandolinist on Jan 11, 2022 19:39:38 GMT
mandolinist Yes, Vivaldi is wonderful but, unlike Bach, for example, doesn’t lend itself to incessant playing. Where do you perform/which which orchestra? Paul A small, plucked string amateur orchestra in Bristol. Only a few public performances a year. It is very niche, but I really enjoy it. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 11, 2022 19:42:30 GMT
Gavin - Welcome
Lululemon
Interesting analysis, and since most party members/activists on here are happy to engage in discussion with folk from another "tribe", probably our respective party hierarchies consider us as "mavericks".
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Post by EmCat on Jan 11, 2022 19:49:44 GMT
James ''Does anyone think that the main parties will be level by March? '' I realise there is blood in the water just now-but do you think Turk's prediction is completely beyond credibility. ? If a week is a long time in politics, then 6 weeks is, well, six times as long  Stranger things have happened. For example, in 1992, with a bit over a month to go to the election, and a bookies that I passed on the way to work was offering odds of 5-1 for "Conservatives the largest party" (so not even an overall majority)[1]. This was because Labour were enough ahead that the result seemed almost like a foregone conclusion. Going the other way, and for 2017, the election was called because the Tories were enough ahead in the polls that the result seemed to be a formality. Hence, the prediction might seem right at the moment to be beyond credible, but equally, it might turn out to be spot on. [1] They were also offering a double of 120-1 for Tories as largest party and for Party Politics to win the Grand National. The bookies were probably glad that more people didn't take them up on their offer... |
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Post by robert on Jan 11, 2022 19:50:38 GMT
TWs: The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselvesThat's a bummer. There was me banking on my birthday being the same date as usual this year, but if the future isn't set... And if my house gets struck by lightning, it will be nobody's fault but mine. Yeah, right... ********** If I've only just considering these nostrums of the TWs and realised how vacuous they are. Well, an anniversary is just an anniversary but it's your decision whether you celebrate it or not, go bungee jumping, or whatever, so in that sense it's up to you. As for lightening striking your house well you could head it off by having a word with @danny aka God, according to his profile. Of course he could be dyslexic and simply be barking, in which case he would have no influence, so perhaps a lightening rod on the chimney, will let you continue to influence your destiny. |
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Post by guymonde on Jan 11, 2022 19:53:51 GMT
barbara "His tomorrows have to catch up with him in the end don't they?" That's what I used to say when he was doing exactly the same as Mayor of London. That was in his first term 😑 When he was running for leader I had to gulp when I read somewhere (may even have been in UKPR 1.0) that he may be a state-registered trifler with the actualites (as one might have put it on UKPR 1.0) but he was a great mayor of London. Well, OK, if you mean in the sense that Chris Grayling was a great Justice Secretary
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Post by James E on Jan 11, 2022 19:56:04 GMT
I'm old enough to remember Starmer being part of Corbyn's shadow cabinet. I imagine that we're all old enough to remember 2019, Trevor. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jan 11, 2022 20:03:48 GMT
Robert
"Well, an anniversary is just an anniversary"
That rather depends on who you are married to, if you forget.
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Post by guymonde on Jan 11, 2022 20:14:51 GMT
colin It occured to me that if Cons are to have a PM who is disliked they could do worse than Gove.Personally, I think Tory VI would plummet to the depths last seen under IDS if Gove replaced Johnson. Whilst Gove's 'competence' is often heralded by people who are ROC he has done so much damage to education in this country and was instrumental in bringing about Brexit, I'm not sure if the majority of country share that view of him. He was flattered by succeeding Grayling at Justice, where he was a genius by comparison. But then I'm better at climbing mountains than a mackerel is. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 11, 2022 20:20:23 GMT
colin It occured to me that if Cons are to have a PM who is disliked they could do worse than Gove.Personally, I think Tory VI would plummet to the depths last seen under IDS if Gove replaced Johnson. Whilst Gove's 'competence' is often heralded by people who are ROC he has done so much damage to education in this country and was instrumental in bringing about Brexit, I'm not sure if the majority of country share that view of him. He was flattered by succeeding Grayling at Justice, where he was a genius by comparison. But then I'm better at climbing mountains than a mackerel is. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 11, 2022 20:28:42 GMT
It's getting v piscatorial on here this evening. Mackerel, grayling, and Scotland's welcoming committee headed by Sturgeon.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 20:30:54 GMT
mandolinist Yes, Vivaldi is wonderful but, unlike Bach, for example, doesn’t lend itself to incessant playing. Where do you perform/which which orchestra? Paul A small, plucked string amateur orchestra in Bristol. Only a few public performances a year. It is very niche, but I really enjoy it. Sounds very enjoyable. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 20:32:03 GMT
It's getting v piscatorial on here this evening. Mackerel, grayling, and Scotland's welcoming committee headed by Sturgeon. Lady Val’s been drinking again Andy. |
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Post by guymonde on Jan 11, 2022 20:38:43 GMT
graham "I am unaware of a single instance of Wilson being worse for alcohol in the Commons - nothing even remotely comparable to Churchill." I was always under the impression that George Brown had been appointed Chancellor of the Hangover
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 11, 2022 20:44:12 GMT
It's getting v piscatorial on here this evening. Mackerel, grayling, and Scotland's welcoming committee headed by Sturgeon. I suppose you're angling for a compliment with that bit of cleverness, are you? Been out for the day on canal monitoring duties. Spotted some interesting graffiti under one of the bridges. A giant whotsit with all the key features. A Trevor Warne self portrait possibly, but I gather he's through that phase now and concentrating more on creating fictional graphs for imaginary polling companies. Less cubist, more fantasist. That Savanta/ComRes poll published today isn't that interesting, is it? No change from their last one (DK to Tory rewind?) and with the fieldwork completed before the latest partygate revelations. Unlucky for Savanta/ComRes with the timing. Occupational hazard of polling, I guess. They dived in just before the water temperature changed. Or will it change? Next poll will tell us. Inter twesting times. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2022 20:54:19 GMT
Batty
Were all the canals where they were supposed to be? No leakages/overflowing/wottever?
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 11, 2022 20:57:05 GMT
It's getting v piscatorial on here this evening. Mackerel, grayling, and Scotland's welcoming committee headed by Sturgeon. I suppose you're angling for a compliment with that bit of cleverness, are you? Been out for the day on canal monitoring duties. Spotted some interesting graffiti under one of the bridges. A giant whotsit with all the key features. A Trevor Warne self portrait possibly, but I gather he's through that phase now and concentrating more on creating fictional graphs for imaginary polling companies. Less cubist, more fantasist. That Savanta/ComRes poll published today isn't that interesting, is it? No change from their last one (DK to Tory rewind?) and with the fieldwork completed before the latest partygate revelations. Unlucky for Savanta/ComRes with the timing. Occupational hazard of polling, I guess. They dived in just before the water temperature changed. Or will it change? Next poll will tell us. Inter twesting times. Tortuwous Batty tortuwous. Which length have you been waddling. I used to enjoy the Cruising the Cut on Youtube 'til the gentleman cruiser appeared to get bored and went on a sabbatical. |
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