8-Jan-2022 : LAB: 39 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 11 / GRN: 5

[steamdrivenandy]

Jan 11, 2022 15:17:35 GMT mercian said:

Jan 11, 2022 15:10:24 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

I'm wondering if it is at all surprising that core Con support is holding in the face of recent poor publicity.

Surely, at its core, an ROC philosophy is less sympathetic, less caring, more about satisfying individual aspirations than the population's needs.

So whilst Johnson's behaviour horrifies LOC because they understand and feel the hurt caused to those who obeyed the impositions and lost loved ones, the ROC don't find it as reprehensible and are more able to shrug their shoulders about it.

The problem for Con is at the margin where Tory Lite lives, they may not be so convinced, less hard hearted, not steeled to the fray. They may go DNV or even fall back over to the left of the centre line.

The problem with this government is that they aren't grinding the faces of the poor hard enough 🤣

How is Genghis these days Mercian?

[mercian]

steamdrivenandy
I had to expel him from my local party for being a softy. A bit too much like Walter from the Beano.

[jimjam]

Colin,

I felt Turks prediction was optimistic from an ROC perspective when he made it but not beyond credibility.

I limited myself to saying 'we shall see' as anything beyond would not add to the discourse and being Labour myself I will inevitably be biased.

I think it is fair to say that the latest BYOB story makes Turks forecast less likely and I guess he would say the same.

Caveat would be that if Johnson goes soon the leadership contest, with wall to wall coverage of the Tories, would probably lead to a partial recovery in the polls.

[neilj]

Made me laugh

[neilj]

[ladyvalerie]

Jan 11, 2022 10:00:12 GMT tancred said:

I think most people are fed up with this tittle-tattle about Boris and his entourage. They know what he is like, this isn't extraordinary behaviour for someone like him.

"someone like him"isn't something the cat has brought in. He is our Prime Minister.

[neilj]

[neilj]

[neilj]

[barbara]

Jan 11, 2022 14:46:44 GMT mercian said:

Jan 11, 2022 9:12:50 GMT barbara said:

Perhaps getting rid of the statue will remind people of the real history he was involved in.

Out of sight, out of mind. I should think that removing the statue (and renaming various institutions) will result in him being largely forgotten. Whereas a plaque attached to the statue explaining both positive and negative aspects of the man would be a better reminder.  Anyway, I think the subject has been done to death now. I don't want to turn into Danny and write lengthy repetitive essays several times a day on this (or any) subject.

mercian - Just so we can finish with agreement😊😊.  I don't think it was acceptable for the statue to be toppled into the harbour. I'm not in favour of the public taking matters into their own hands.
That said, there has been a a consensus in Bristol for many years that the statue was offensive and should either be moved or an additional plaque should be placed to set the context. The council had been in discussion with the Merchant Venturers for several years to get agreement to do this. All such moves were resolutely refused by the MV who used every means to block council motions and keep the status quo. So while I don't condone or support the actions of the protesters I do understand how their frustration boiled over.

[barbara]

Jan 11, 2022 15:07:32 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Ok so I'm having a very slow work day today and decided to look into the political leanings of posters. Looking at people's posts, posts they like, name selection etc I came up with the following:
For the 137 members there is only sufficient information to come to a view on political affiliation for 54 members.
Tory leaning: 16%
LD leaning: 14%
SNP leaning: 7%
Lab leaning: 31%
ABT: 20%
Mavericks: 12%
Primarily based on name selection, 5% of members are female.

lululemonmustdobetter Actually I think this is really useful. I self classify as LOC but I'm not necessarily Labour. I am resolutely ABT. I would happily vote SNP, LD, Green, Independent LOC to get the Tories out. So while there is clearly majority of LOC on the board, as you've demonstrated that's not the same as Labour.

[steve]

neilj
As a country we would be better off with Spaffer and his acolytes as far from power as possible now.
But there's a tiny voice inside saying keep the narcissistic creep in place we could get rid of the Tories for a generation.

[steve]

Damn
I think I might have given a slight hint regarding my political affiliations.

[James E]

"5% of members are female."

With a sample of 54 people, that means that we must have between 2.43 and 2.97 women.

[ladyvalerie]

Ooh I've reached double figures .

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jan 11, 2022 16:10:53 GMT James E said:

"5% of members are female."

With a sample of 54 people, that means that we must have between 2.43 and 2.97 women.

The 5% is of all 137 posters.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jan 11, 2022 16:07:34 GMT steve said:

Damn
I think I might have given a slight hint regarding my political affiliations.

I had you down as Tory leaning

[steamdrivenandy]

I've formed the impression that the people tried for the statue removal were students but their details have escaped me.

Can anyone advise:
a. were they students?
b. were they borne and raised locally?
c. which college/s are/were they from (if they were students)?
d. were they members of a particular group that had wound themselves up over this issue?
e. how long had they been resident in the Bristol area?

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jan 11, 2022 16:04:43 GMT barbara said:

Jan 11, 2022 15:07:32 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

lululemonmustdobetter Actually I think this is really useful. I self classify as LOC but I'm not necessarily Labour. I am resolutely ABT. I would happily vote SNP, LD, Green, Independent LOC to get the Tories out. So while there is clearly majority of LOC on the board, as you've demonstrated that's not the same as Labour.

Hi barbara, the board is much more anti-Tory than pro-Labour. I didn't have time to do % by actual posts (as some of our more prolific posters are ROC) to see if that redressed the balance at all.

(ps I couldn't bare to put you in the same grouping as one particular poster, so I put them in maverick instead).

[domjg]

Jan 11, 2022 16:04:43 GMT barbara said:

Jan 11, 2022 15:07:32 GMT lululemonmustdobetter said:

Ok so I'm having a very slow work day today and decided to look into the political leanings of posters. Looking at people's posts, posts they like, name selection etc I came up with the following:
For the 137 members there is only sufficient information to come to a view on political affiliation for 54 members.
Tory leaning: 16%
LD leaning: 14%
SNP leaning: 7%
Lab leaning: 31%
ABT: 20%
Mavericks: 12%
Primarily based on name selection, 5% of members are female.

lululemonmustdobetter Actually I think this is really useful. I self classify as LOC but I'm not necessarily Labour. I am resolutely ABT. I would happily vote SNP, LD, Green, Independent LOC to get the Tories out. So while there is clearly majority of LOC on the board, as you've demonstrated that's not the same as Labour.

barbara Same here. I voted Labour for many years in a constituency where that made sense but I've also been a volunteer for the LDs in the past in another constituency where they were best placed to oppose the Tories. I'm now back in LD vs. Con land so it's clear how I'll vote next time. 

[gavin]

Jan 11, 2022 16:16:15 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

I've formed the impression that the people tried for the statue removal were students but their details have escaped me.

Can anyone advise:
a. were they students?
b. were they borne and raised locally?
c. which college/s are/were they from (if they were students)?
d. were they members of a particular group that had wound themselves up over this issue?
e. how long had they been resident in the Bristol area?

Hello. I'm a long-time lurker on the old board and this one.

I have registered only because I am a former work colleague of one of the Colston Four, so I can shed some light on the above.

Hopefully I won't be tempted to post too much - this board seems quite addictive, though I do like the fact that it no longer seems to be a forum dominated by petty arguments involving unreasonable people called Trevor.

As a former colleague of one of the four (I don't really want to identify him, but suffice to say I have never had any friends called Sage or Milo), I can advise the following:
- I knew him in his early 20s. This would have been around 2010. He seemed like a lovely bloke. I didn't know him very well but he had a very gentle and friendly demeanour.
- He was definitely local. We worked in the most impoverished part of Bristol and his accent fitted in with the surroundings. I am pretty sure he was an apprentice in the position I knew him, but I can't say he didn't go to uni later as a mature student.
- We never discussed politics so I can't say anything for his leanings or activities. As I said, it was also a long time ago and he was only young at the time.

Given the other two men sound like the children of 90s It Girls, I would presume their background was starkly different to his. But I freely admit that is drawing conclusions from the fact that a) they have posh names, and b) they look posh.

[alec]

"Hopefully I won't be tempted to post too much - this board seems quite addictive, though I do like the fact that it no longer seems to be a forum dominated by petty arguments involving unreasonable people called Trevor."

Oi, gavin - I'll give you a petty argument if you're looking for one mate!



Good to have you on board.

[hireton]

Douglas Ross, leader of the Scottish branch of the Tory party, has said, it seems unequivocally, that there is no reason why Johnson cannot say immediately whether or not he attended the May 20 party and, if in doing do he breached covid regulations or guidance, he should resign.

[steamdrivenandy]

Thanks for that background Gavin. So the man in the mask is around 30ish, whilst the others look a fair bit younger. Further reading says they were members of a BFM group, though whether that's just a journalistic assumption or reality I couldn't say. Anyway it's good to have you on the board, welcome.

[davwel]

I think Colin is right in classing Martin Reynolds as a civil servant.

And I believe he will get the blame for both May parties.

So I expect he will be pushed into resigning tonight. The Tory cabinet will not want the sight of empty Tory benches and the Postmaster General batting alone for them against the massed MPs of other parties on TV main news, with no response or get-out.

At all costs they do not want any ministers that attended either party to be identified.

[alec]

hireton - The party story really does seem to be something that gets people riled. The numerous reports about the mood within Tory circles backs up what you say about Ross. In a conventional situation, the PM would resign, but I'll be looking to see what support he is getting from the ERG. They are desperate for Johnson to stay, because they know Brexit has fallen apart, and it's only the fact that Johnson is PM that there is anyone willing to defend such a poor negotiation. They can see they preferred future slipping away in Johnson goes.

[peterbell]

Jan 11, 2022 16:57:20 GMT davwel said:

I think Colin is right in classing Martin Reynolds as a civil servant.

And I believe he will get the blame for both May parties.

So I expect he will be pushed into resigning tonight. The Tory cabinet will not want the sight of empty Tory benches and the Postmaster General batting alone for them against the massed MPs of other parties on TV main news, with no response or get-out.

At all costs they do not want any ministers that attended either party to be identified.

Could be dangerous for Johnson if Reynolds is pushed.  Apart from the fact that he is likely to confirm that Boris knew about the email or even suggested the party, like a certain Mr Cummings, he probably has plenty of other info.

[Danny]

The garden party affair is beginnng to look very orchestrated to attack the PM. The original revelation seems to have been one wher he didnt attend, which gave him the opportunity to distance himself from those involved and their behaviour. And then we get a revelation where he did attend, having just publicly pronounced sentence upon himself.

[Danny]

zoe data just jumped forward two days from what I looked at last night, they seem to have got behind at the weekend.

R=0.8 for London, but has now also fallen to 0.9 for both east and SE regions. Overall 1.0 for England and UK.

daily cases falling for 7 days up to 9 Jan. All the graphical daily new cases data showing regional peaks or falls.

Age group data shows falls for all except the under 20s, which are rising with the new term mixing.

If cancelling christmas reduced peak of cases, there is not eveidence it reduced total of cases. Hospitals have not been overloaded. It isnt clear spreading their cases over a longer time helps at all short of overload.

[steve]

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