8-Jan-2022 : LAB: 39 / CON: 34 / LDEM: 11 / GRN: 5

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 22:07:40 GMT shevii said:

Jan 8, 2022 21:42:24 GMT @tw said:

and it is possible Rishi helps/hinders VI into May LEs (eg a well timed announcement that VAT will be cut on energy bills that will be funded by the Magic Money Tree (and fiscal drag) v 'tough it out')

Sunak probably wants to hand out the sweeties if/when he becomes PM!  I doubt he would deliberately want to send Johnson into exile and some of that flak might hit him anyway, but if you've only got one set of sweeties to hand out better to do it when you're in charge.

Agreed but see my reply to colin WRT to his main competitor, Truss. Timing wise then it would probably look far too obviously opportunist (and be too late) if Rishi chucks Boris under the bus in the coming months (ie does not 'help') but then manages to find some fruit from the Magic Money Tree down the back of sofa later in 2022 (although obviously folks spend more of heating in Winter so it's possible he sees a small window of opportunity in the Autumn (budget) and risks putting his cart before a near dead Boris horse then? Complicated considerations!

[crossbat11]

I'm getting knocked out by the tide of profundities sweeping ashore tonight. Apparently the only poll that matters is the one that takes place on General Election day.

And there was me thinking......

[robert]

Jan 8, 2022 21:54:12 GMT colin said:

Jan 8, 2022 21:42:24 GMT @tw said:

Of note then in latest Opinium (Q:V006) Boris approval rating 'boost' is all from CON VI

Overall net -24 (+7)
CON VI: +64 (+15)

If we can return to Covid Plan A towards end of the month then the CRG faction will have nothing to object about and might go the way of ERG. Other issues might cause division within CON MPs (eg how to assist consumers and businesses with impact of global energy prices and how to pay for that) and it is possible Rishi helps/hinders VI into May LEs (eg a well timed announcement that VAT will be cut on energy bills that will be funded by the Magic Money Tree (and fiscal drag) v 'tough it out')

Anyway, with his approval returning from CON VI and possibly less internal division then a VoNC challenge certainly seems less likely for now. As mentioned many times previously then Brand Rishi, Brand Truss, etc would likely prefer Boris to stay where he is until later in 2022 but that also means they might miss their opportunity and Boris stays leader+PM into GE'24 

Lazarus 2.   ?   

Well yes indeed colin. Apart from memories fading a little, I think he is/will benefit from having called Omicron correctly and not cancelled Xmas and gone back into lockdown. It was a gamble but it may have been the right call. Still a bit further to go to be certain but deaths have certainly not taken off under Omicron. Scotland has now come into line with England on covid regs, I believe, with only Dismal Dick of West Wales still in panic mode.

Having said all that and whilst my view is now that Johnson will still be PM at the year end, as the party rebellion was all about covid restrictions and nothing else, it will still be a tough year for them, especially if any further sleaze comes out.

Whats encouraging to me in this poll is that the lost Tories seem to be in the DK club at the moment. Hopefully easier to get back (from the Tory pov)

On the cost of living front, I'm just ordering oil through our club and it stands at just under 60p per litre, which is an increase of 50% from September but still cheaper than 10 years ago. However concerns that the current unrest in Khasakhstan could send the barrel price up, it's already at $81. This delivery should see me through to summer.

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 22:40:34 GMT robert said:

Jan 8, 2022 21:54:12 GMT colin said:

Having said all that and whilst my view is now that Johnson will still be PM at the year end, as the party rebellion was all about covid restrictions and nothing else, it will still be a tough year for them, especially if any further sleaze comes out.

Whats encouraging to me in this poll is that the lost Tories seem to be in the DK club at the moment. Hopefully easier to get back (from the Tory pov)

Yes- thats where I am -I think !

I dont think there was ever a real move against him at Westminster. Lets hope for a gaffe free year  . Its a big ask from him !

[domjg]

Maybe I'm missing something but a few seem to be getting quite excited about a very small within MOE change for one party in one poll. The opposition parties haven't lost anything to Con or DK.

[eor]

Jan 8, 2022 23:10:14 GMT domjg said:

Maybe I'm missing something but a few seem to be getting quite excited about a very small within MOE change for one party in one poll. The opposition parties haven't lost anything to Con or DK.

I don't think you're missing anything - that's what almost always happens when there's a very small within MOE change in one poll :-)

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 22:30:11 GMT colin said:

Re Energy prices-Im quite twitchy about it. Do they really understand the size of this problem.? I've just done my budget for this year and Gas/Elec has moved up the ranks of significant spend. As far as I can tell anyway !-like many folks I have opted for Variable Tariff-best new Fix was +£1500 pa. That hurts.
Rishi needs to get his antennae really well tuned on this one. 

Do taxpayers pay now or pay later (via debt)? Then there is the question of BoE, who should (given how their econometric models work WRT to base effects, etc) see the hit on disposable incomes as a reason to delay hiking rates. However, if Rishi spends too much helping out then BoE might charge him extra on the mountain of QE that he'd be adding to (and BoE might not be keen on keeping the printing presses running forcing Rishi to find the money somewhere else (but tax hikes elsewhere or austerity would be political suicide for Rishi and CON)

Also higher energy bills should encourage folks to reduce the amount of energy they use (rather than the 'help' that Rishi might provide effectively going to Norway/Qatar and indirectly Russia - I'll not go into depth on price elasticity of demand though).

As stated then I've very mixed views on what Rishi should do but I'm pretty sure he knows the size (££) of the problem[1] and I don't envy his task in deciding how much of that is help now (ie debt to pay back later) v 'tough love'.

I've posted the polling on gen.pubs views and fairly obviously LAB have taken up the populist cause of course and we've previously discussed use of Windfall Taxes to cover some 'help'

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59886030


[1]There were an estimated 27.8 million households in the UK in 2020

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/bulletins/familiesandhouseholds/2020 

How long would 'help' last? Once you giveth (cut VAT) then its going to be hard to put it back on (see the amount of times fuel duty rises have been cancelled and how the 'opportunity cost' of that). Energy prices are unlikely to come down much in the next few years (see discussion on Issue Specific thread or my previous comments). FWIW then RUK want a permanent cut to 0% VAT on energy bills but FWIU haven't said how they'd fund it. 

[jimjam]

Don't think anyone is getting excited but whilst only 2 polls this and the R&W does suggest that those of us who felt some Tory recovery (from DKs) judged broadly correctly.

Turk's level pegging by Feb may well be a tad optimistic from a Tory POV but we shall see.

[domjg]

Jan 8, 2022 23:23:00 GMT eor said:

Jan 8, 2022 23:10:14 GMT domjg said:

Maybe I'm missing something but a few seem to be getting quite excited about a very small within MOE change for one party in one poll. The opposition parties haven't lost anything to Con or DK.

I don't think you're missing anything - that's what almost always happens when there's a very small within MOE change in one poll :-)

eor I guess we're all a bit polled starved at the mo'. In any case I live in hope that these con->dk->con switchers are new 2019 con voters who may be persuaded to sit it out again at the next GE if Johnson keeps annoying them.

[eor]

Jan 8, 2022 21:32:20 GMT oldnat said:

"Sinn Fein at 33%, up two points, in tomorrow's Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll. FG at 23%, down two points, FF 19% - up two."

That's a pretty striking poll! And they haven't fully turned off the Furlough taps yet either...

I suppose it's an inherent risk when three parties take a comfortable majority of the vote between them, and two go into coalition together, that the third becomes the default alternative for those unhappy with the coalition, at least initially?

[oldnat]

Good to see that this site can have a screw up, and become unavailable, just as UKPR1 sometimes did.

[domjg]

@jim jam Turk would have us believe the last month has just been a blip and not a 'tipping point'. I suspect it's been a small tipping point (no black Wednesday) and enough con-> DKs have been repulsed enough by the recent shenanigans to stop Con getting back up to 39/40 with Johnson as leader at least. Plus a small amount of switching to other parties. It's up to Lab/LD and esp Lab to now build an attractive offer for these new DKs.

[domjg]

Jan 8, 2022 23:49:31 GMT oldnat said:

Good to see that this site can have a screw up, and become unavailable, just as UKPR1 sometimes did.

oldnat When Ukpr1 would go offline in recent months especially I would always wonder if that was the last I'd see of it.

[robbiealive]

Jan 8, 2022 22:21:27 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Jan 8, 2022 21:43:31 GMT @crofty said:

SDA

When did you achieve four star status? I.e. At what figure?

 I got a pair of socks, a new dressing gown, that's not to say that the socks were old, an Amazon vulture, a book on Spitfires and one by Clarkson, plus some disturbingly good chocolates.

There is something fascinating about lists: they are trotted out in novels ad infinitum as a way of revealing character. But forgive my curiosity (i.e., I don't a damn about invading yr privacy) was the book by Jeremy Clarkson. Can we regard this as a calculated insult (as RH Tawney said of Macdonald's offer of a peerage.) A friend of mine arrived with one of his books. I made her keep it in a brown paper bag when she wasn't reading in case another friend dropped by unexpectedly & thought it was mine.  

[domjg]

Jan 8, 2022 23:43:30 GMT eor said:

Jan 8, 2022 21:32:20 GMT oldnat said:

"Sinn Fein at 33%, up two points, in tomorrow's Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll. FG at 23%, down two points, FF 19% - up two."

That's a pretty striking poll! And they haven't fully turned off the Furlough taps yet either...

I suppose it's an inherent risk when three parties take a comfortable majority of the vote between them, and two go into coalition together, that the third becomes the default alternative for those unhappy with the coalition, at least initially?

eor There was the bizarre and unhappy state of affairs during the last CDU/SPD grand coalition in Germany when the AfD got more attention than they should have done by being de facto the opposition. They seem to be back in their box now thank goodness. Sinn Fein though do seem to have been working pretty successfully of late to make themselves more 'salonfaehig' as the Germans would put it.

[steve]

Maybe the fact that Spaffer is a liar is now factored in in voting, Spaffer reaches the first stage of his Orange Caligula status.

[eor]

Jan 9, 2022 0:05:35 GMT steve said:

Maybe the fact that Spaffer is a liar is now factored in in voting, Spaffer reaches the first stage of his Orange Caligula status.

I'll be honest, I have literally no idea what any of that means.

But having started my daily(ish) catchup on this site to a post entitled Thought For The Day that was posted by God, I'm prepared to accept I'm in the presence of a higher wisdom. 

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 22:34:45 GMT @tw said:

Jan 8, 2022 22:07:40 GMT shevii said:

Sunak probably wants to hand out the sweeties if/when he becomes PM!  I doubt he would deliberately want to send Johnson into exile and some of that flak might hit him anyway, but if you've only got one set of sweeties to hand out better to do it when you're in charge.

Agreed but see my reply to colin WRT to his main competitor, Truss. Timing wise then it would probably look far too obviously opportunist (and be too late) if Rishi chucks Boris under the bus in the coming months (ie does not 'help') but then manages to find some fruit from the Magic Money Tree down the back of sofa later in 2022 (although obviously folks spend more of heating in Winter so it's possible he sees a small window of opportunity in the Autumn (budget) and risks putting his cart before a near dead Boris horse then? Complicated considerations!

I think Truss will be crowded out. I don't think she would be a candidate.

As to the budgetary help - unless there was an agreement with the energy companies to subsidise the energy bills (which can be done and may well be done in March), there is no other way. Tracking back on the NI contribution increase would be difficult as the arguments used have validity (to a degree). It makes the whole thing very difficult unless the Treasury is willing to subsidise various industries (of course, then it would raise the question why those industries, but it could be managed.)

If Sunak doesn't do something visible (not necessarily important) he would suffer (even if Tory MPs and party members support him). It seems to me (judging from the briefings - which is misleading as Covid are in all questions) that there is a serious query to find the Treasury subject where the change is acceptable and appreciated.

One of the things from the poll (and its details) is that the Conservatives are thought to be able to find what is in the previous paragraph, present it as temporary, and go along with it. So it is "hesitancy". But if they cannot overcome histancy (quite possible) then the change in polls are coming for Labour.

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 22:21:27 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

Jan 8, 2022 21:43:31 GMT @crofty said:

SDA

When did you achieve four star status? I.e. At what figure?

Trying to work out if it’s worth trying for it during my week’s notice which, apparently, I have to work whilst still writing. Thought I might as well try to get something tangible out of it - and an extra star would be just the wee jobbie (as Old Nat would say.)

.......I got a pair of socks, a new dressing gown, that's not to say that the socks were old, an Amazon vulture, a book on Spitfires and one by Clarkson, plus some disturbingly good chocolates.

The Amazon Vultures are quite tricky as presents I find - but they do make a nice surprise for the right person I suppose.

[oldnat]

Crofty @ SDA

An Amazon Vulture can also be termed a Truss or a Patel.

[eor]

Not a Raab or a Sunak or a Johnson or a Gove of course... 

[Deleted]

BBC article on two new CON factions relating to Energy issue:

Tories call on Treasury to fund green energy plans

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59915299

- 'The Conservative Environment Network (CEN), which includes 116 MPs, says the temporary measure would ease the surge in household costs. But the group opposes a separate proposal to abolish the 5% VAT on energy bills, saying it would effectively provide a subsidy for fossil fuels'

- 'The plan to scrap VAT on energy has been pushed by the Net Zero Scrutiny Group (NZSG) of Tory MPs and peers.
The caucus, with around 20 followers, has been linked to the anti-green pressure group formerly known as the Global Warming Policy Foundation'

116 is much larger than 20 but Starmer-LAB back the NZSG (and RUK) policy if Boris wants to rely on LAB

[alec]

@tw - "There were an estimated 27.8 million households in the UK in 2020"

It's understandable that you are looking at this from the consumer angle, but themore important angle is from industry. The price rises are really hurting many companies, particularly in the manufacturing sector. At present these price rises are ahead of many of our global competitors, and when added to the large additional costs of Brexit, which are unique to the UK, there are some severe problems developing.

Consumer costs will get all the attention, but many of the existing schemes for poorer households and environmental improvements in the power system already land at the door of industry more than consumers, and the impact on business is likely to create more structural economic issues if it persists.

[alec]

Also worth noting that the dinasaurs in the Conservative Party now occupying the Net Zero Scrutiny Group who have followed the oil company money and switched from climate change denial to arguing solving the problem would be too expensive, now find they are heavily outnumbered even in their own party, while having to explain how a crisis in fossil fuel pricing makes greening the energy supply unaffordable.

But they never were the brightest buttons.

[steamdrivenandy]

Jan 9, 2022 0:01:49 GMT robbiealive said:

Jan 8, 2022 22:21:27 GMT steamdrivenandy said:

 I got a pair of socks, a new dressing gown, that's not to say that the socks were old, an Amazon vulture, a book on Spitfires and one by Clarkson, plus some disturbingly good chocolates.

There is something fascinating about lists: they are trotted out in novels ad infinitum as a way of revealing character. But forgive my curiosity (i.e., I don't a damn about invading yr privacy) was the book by Jeremy Clarkson. Can we regard this as a calculated insult (as RH Tawney said of Macdonald's offer of a peerage.) A friend of mine arrived with one of his books. I made her keep it in a brown paper bag when she wasn't reading in case another friend dropped by unexpectedly & thought it was mine.  

'Fraid it is a book by 'Jezzer' Robbie, I had to adopt a fixed pleasant smile as I removed the wrapper, whilst my insides were gripped by a sort of hollow feeling. The cover tells me it is 'laugh out loud funny', which at my age can be dangerous.  

[steamdrivenandy]

Jan 9, 2022 1:38:05 GMT eor said:

Not a Raab or a Sunak or a Johnson or a Gove of course... 

You mean ever circling........

[steamdrivenandy]

Jan 9, 2022 0:53:25 GMT oldnat said:

Crofty @ SDA

An Amazon Vulture can also be termed a Truss or a Patel.

Hardly Amazons Olders, more like a powder puff and a bag of wind. They wouldn't stand a chance against the Scot's lady, even if she had one arm tied behind her back and hadn't had her daily porage. 

[crossbat11]

Jan 8, 2022 23:29:23 GMT jimjam said:

Don't think anyone is getting excited but whilst only 2 polls this and the R&W does suggest that those of us who felt some Tory recovery (from DKs) judged broadly correctly.

Turk's level pegging by Feb may well be a tad optimistic from a Tory POV but we shall see.

Perish the thought that I would ever doubt the accuracy of your psephological soothsaying, but I wonder if you've seized on this latest poll with uncharacteristic haste as evidence that you're right. A 2% rise in Tory VI in one poll is well within sampling MOE and, in terms of detecting a real shift in voting intention, could well amount to no more than statistical noise.

Of course, with accumulating polling data to come, you may be right about a Tory recovery but I have to say that as someone who has often counselled caution about polling changes and the danger of reading too much into them, particularly when Labour have ticked upwards in the past, I'm surprised at the alacrity of your conclusion arrival here.

Maybe Barrow's dramatic elimination from the FA Cup yesterday has impaired your usually sober judgement on these matters. 😁🏆

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 23:25:57 GMT @tw said:

Jan 8, 2022 22:30:11 GMT colin said:

a)Do taxpayers pay now or pay later (via debt)? Then there is the question of BoE, who should (given how their econometric models work WRT to base effects, etc) see the hit on disposable incomes as a reason to delay hiking rates. However, if Rishi spends too much helping out then BoE might charge him extra on the mountain of QE that he'd be adding to

b)Also higher energy bills should encourage folks to reduce the amount of energy they use 

c)As stated then I've very mixed views on what Rishi should do

d)How long would 'help' last? 

a) I don't see BoE increasing the current mandate on stock of QE ( dont think there is much left unspent). This is the era of "where we used to be"-Finance Ministers fund Public Finances with Tax Revenue or Borrowing.
b) This sounds fine-all part of that Green Agenda where we suddenly stop emitting CO2 and live with free energy. Read Ed Conway today in THe Times to see what a travesty of the facts that is. Meantime all that stuff will be no help to those on low and fixed ( or even medium !!) incomes with whats coming in April on energy prices-and remember the cap is reviewed in October too. So any Tory MP that tries to use that friendly message is going to send more thousands into the Labour Camp-where Reeves is promising £200 + help and a windfall tax on energy companies.

c) Its a tough gig-but there you go. He has to recognise the size of the problem-provide help-and fund . I think Reeves is on the right track-lets see Sunak's response.
d) The 64 million $ question ! A Tory MP quoted in ST  saying these energy prices are "an anomaly". How does he know?. Does anyone know ?. 

[Deleted]

Jan 8, 2022 23:29:23 GMT jimjam said:

Turk's level pegging by Feb may well be a tad optimistic from a Tory POV but we shall see.

He said March in fairness @jimjam.

Good to see you responding in an adult fashion though-rather than the playground hoots from elsewhere.

I think Reeves and Starmer will have plenty of scope to stop any Con VI recovery after the energy cap is raised. 
You have to say that KS was spot on with his Partygate attacks-well timed and all about fairness.

Cant help wondering whether that fairness thing is available again when ordinary citizens cant afford heat and light because they dont have a friendly Peer of the Realm to chip in ?