Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 9, 2022 10:05:22 GMT
Well yes indeed colin. Apart from memories fading a little, I think he is/will benefit from having called Omicron correctly and not cancelled Xmas and gone back into lockdown. It was a gamble but it may have been the right call. Still a bit further to go to be certain but deaths have certainly not taken off under Omicron. Scotland has now come into line with England on covid regs. there was no legally imposed lockdown but the government nonetheless asked people to cancel Christmas celebrations, and they did. From my perspective and any voter similarly inclined, government did reimpose restrictions and did curtail Christmas, and there is no evidence of benefit as a result. News this morning talks about ending lateral flow testing in a few weeks. Again there is no evidence this has ever succeeded in reducing the total of cases, and two parliamentary investigations thus far concluded testing was ineffectual. This would be a combination of the total number of tests being far too low even now to catch a significant proportion of cases, most people who are ill would stay home anyway so nothing extra is achieved, testing likely catches people too late after they have started spreading,the tests are most likely to miss asymptomatic cases, which are exactly the ones where people will go on spreading unawares. What testing has done with accompanying mandatory isolation is create staff shortages all over the nation including the nhs.This is why hospital services are stretched, not because of a large number of patients ill because of covid. All the evidence is that omicron in the uk has behaved exactly as in SA, with encouragingly low serious illness or death. They think essentially everyone was reinfected with omicron yet serious effects were best yet for any wave. The NHS is designed to manage seasonal illness by suspending its other activities and this was consistent with its permanent epidemic plan of managed spread. Get it over so can return to normal as soon as possible. Government threw out that plan probably not realising the health costs of switching the NHS to winter mode permanently. NHS overload now is a combination of that decision plus permanent under resourcing. Plus of course sending well staff home. It's a consequence of policy not covid. Labour has failed to differentiate itself from governmental by calling for fewer restrictions, indeed called for more. It cannot therefore gain politically from this government mistake. The people who can and will gain are the Tory rebels who voted against their own government. The con narrative will be government followed bad medical advice, but it's plucky individual MPS resisted as best they could so deserve your votes. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 10:07:00 GMT
Don't think anyone is getting excited but whilst only 2 polls this and the R&W does suggest that those of us who felt some Tory recovery (from DKs) judged broadly correctly. Turk's level pegging by Feb may well be a tad optimistic from a Tory POV but we shall see. , I'm surprised at the alacrity of your conclusion arrival here. Does @"Don't think anyone is getting excited" count as "alacrity" ? Which dictionary were you using ?  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 10:09:46 GMT
ST front page headlines the "end of lateral flow tests as country told to live with covid"
Another sign of Sunak staring at that £370 bn Covid bill and shouting "stop" !
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jan 9, 2022 10:20:08 GMT
I suppose it's an inherent risk when three parties take a comfortable majority of the vote between them, and two go into coalition together, that the third becomes the default alternative for those unhappy with the coalition, at least initially? Apply this reasoning to lab and con supporting recent covid restrictions and libs opposing. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jan 9, 2022 10:33:01 GMT
Sounds to me that charging for LFT was a kite being flown by some one in Government and following the reaction will not take place
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Post by hireton on Jan 9, 2022 10:34:05 GMT
ST front page headlines the "end of lateral flow tests as country told to live with covid" Another sign of Sunak staring at that £370 bn Covid bill and shouting "stop" ! But also spectacularly bad political timing - by whoever set the story running - in the midst of the Omicron wave when the government message is to emphasise the importance of testing. Especially as it was already stated policy subject to consultation etc and in itself not hugely controversial. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 9, 2022 10:35:45 GMT
Mmmm
Energy - we're currently paying about £1,200 per year and our tariff runs to September '22, providing our supplier stays in business.
I've just been on the Which? Switch site and I can go on variable and pay the equivalent of an extra £300 a year 'til the cap gets reviewed, or a one year fix at an extra £1,300 or so, or a two year fix at £1,800 a year more than now. Presumably those fixes are the suppliers hoping to, at least, cover their costs, which means their current pricing will be pessimistic, discouraging long term commitments. If we allowed for that it looks as if our cost increase will be around £1,000 in the next year and an additional £500 next year.
I can't imagine how low income households will manage with rises like that, plus general inflation, plus taxation increases. Something has to give.
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Post by somerjohn on Jan 9, 2022 10:37:39 GMT
Colin at 9.55: Good to see you responding in an adult fashion though-rather than the playground hoots from elsewhere.
Colin at 10.07: Does "Don't think anyone is getting excited" count as "alacrity" ?
Which dictionary were you using ?
Maybe two sarky faux-questions constitute "adult fashion" in Colin-world.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jan 9, 2022 10:38:08 GMT
Morning all from a very beautiful brisk sunny morning in the PSRL.
It’s not surprising Tory leaning posters are buoyed by this poll, it’s like in kickeball when a team is 2-0 down at halftime and score a goal just after the reset. Its a long way to go till final whistle, the GE. In terms of VI I do think longer term, if the DK 2019 Tory is packed with disillusioned (with current govt) 1st time Tory voters, and if that evolves into DNV then that obviously benefits Labour. The Tories will struggle in many of the seats they won in '19 if they aren't seen to deliver, and watching Rachel Reeves this morning I do think Labour will present a more voter competent friendly image to that sector of the electorate. Even if Labour can’t persuade them to vote for them, they may not be motivated to keep Labour out and stay at home. On the VAT point, I do think Reeves missed a tick though in not pointing out that 1) VAT is a highly regressive tax, and if you remove it will disproportionally benefit the less well off, 2) targeted measures essentially mean means testing which due to the administrative cost of such schemes and lower take up are less effective in benefitting the people you are trying to help.
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Post by jimjam on Jan 9, 2022 10:39:21 GMT
Colin - yes apologies to Turk, he said by March.
CB - the 'usual' is that when a party gets a surge or slump which is what we saw there is a an exaggerated VI impact with some, at least, unwinding very quickly.
The level of Tory 2019 to DKs prior to Christmas did seem unsustainable and an underlying 3-5% lead for Labour always seem more realistic
Of course the 4 polls in a row rule has not been met so perhaps I could have stressed more.
I guess I judge regulars on here are all pretty sensible at understanding MOE and the like and the need for confirmatory polls.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 9, 2022 10:42:29 GMT
I would query the statement that testing only identifies after the event, implying they're not worth using.
Mrs SDA insists that her choir members take a lateral flow test before meeting and lots of people test on a similar basis. So, yes, any that test positive may have been infecting people beforehand, but by testing and staying away from the choir they're not spreading it even more. So the testing does have a dampening effect on what might have happened if no test was available.
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Post by jib on Jan 9, 2022 10:52:37 GMT
I see Lord Frost is advising that Johnson moved to ‘free markets and low taxes’.
In the real world, the Tories' immediate concern is what to do about the runaway train of energy bills increases, caused in a large part by the energy price cap introduced by the Tories!
Someone is going to have to foot the bill for all this state support at some point, and I'm sorry Frosty, taxes are only going one way....UP!
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Post by crossbat11 on Jan 9, 2022 10:53:15 GMT
, I'm surprised at the alacrity of your conclusion arrival here. Does @"Don't think anyone is getting excited" count as "alacrity" ? Which dictionary were you using ? Thanks for reaching out across the aisle, Col. I hear your agonised wails drifting to me from yonder dark and murky fog. Reaching out to me, wistfully and from a land where the absence of political parties grants uncertainty, yes, but a freedom of thought and objectivity too that we must aspire to I will join you in that promised land one day, Col, I promise. Bear with me until then, I beg you. 🦉🏆🤣 |
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Post by jimjam on Jan 9, 2022 10:53:20 GMT
CB, I should add that I agree with your earlier post that considering where Labour have come from when Keir became leader, they can still be reasonably satisfied.
Also your comments on the 'should be 10-15points ahead' statements which I agree don't necessarily apply in the context of this exceptional parliament.
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Post by guymonde on Jan 9, 2022 10:58:17 GMT
I would query the statement that testing only identifies after the event, implying they're not worth using. Mrs SDA insists that her choir members take a lateral flow test before meeting and lots of people test on a similar basis. So, yes, any that test positive may have been infecting people beforehand, but by testing and staying away from the choir they're not spreading it even more. So the testing does have a dampening effect on what might have happened if no test was available. Indeed. In both professional and social circles I move in it has become common etiquette to demand that an LFT is taken in advance (and common etiquette to say that you have. whether everybody actually complies is open to question 😁) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 11:06:46 GMT
Don't think anyone is getting excited but whilst only 2 polls this and the R&W does suggest that those of us who felt some Tory recovery (from DKs) judged broadly correctly. Turk's level pegging by Feb may well be a tad optimistic from a Tory POV but we shall see. Perish the thought that I would ever doubt the accuracy of your psephological soothsaying, but I wonder if you've seized on this latest poll with uncharacteristic haste as evidence that you're right. A 2% rise in Tory VI in one poll is well within sampling MOE and, in terms of detecting a real shift in voting intention, could well amount to no more than statistical noise. Of course, with accumulating polling data to come, you may be right about a Tory recovery but I have to say that as someone who has often counselled caution about polling changes and the danger of reading too much into them, particularly when Labour have ticked upwards in the past, I'm surprised at the alacrity of your conclusion arrival here. Maybe Barrow's dramatic elimination from the FA Cup yesterday has impaired your usually sober judgement on these matters. 😁🏆 Typical playground hooting from you Battso. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 11:11:04 GMT
I would query the statement that testing only identifies after the event, implying they're not worth using. Mrs SDA insists that her choir members take a lateral flow test before meeting and lots of people test on a similar basis. So, yes, any that test positive may have been infecting people beforehand, but by testing and staying away from the choir they're not spreading it even more. So the testing does have a dampening effect on what might have happened if no test was available. Indeed. In both professional and social circles I move in it has become common etiquette to demand that an LFT is taken in advance (and common etiquette to say that you have. whether everybody actually complies is open to question 😁) The same for me. Before the Christmas-New Year period I was expected to have LFT before meetings (although it has never been checked). Now, it became a habit, so testing once, sometimes twice, a week. Quite a few people I know do the same. And I know three people who tested (and were) positive before any symptom. Anyway, the government says that it is "fake news" that they want to get rid of it. |
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Post by alec on Jan 9, 2022 11:16:01 GMT
colin - "Another sign of Sunak staring at that £370 bn Covid bill and shouting "stop" ! " And again, repeating the classic mistake he made last year. The countries that deal best with infections deals best with the economoc issues.
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Post by jib on Jan 9, 2022 11:24:51 GMT
colin - "Another sign of Sunak staring at that £370 bn Covid bill and shouting "stop" ! " And again, repeating the classic mistake he made last year. The countries that deal best with infections deals best with the economoc issues. Indeed. It strongly feels as if the Tories in Westminster hope they can "wish" COVID away. In the real world where it is endemic, I suspect the next variant will, on the law of averages, be equally disruptive to "normal life". It would be more effective if the Tories disrupted the lives of the unvaccinated so that the UK is insulated from that eventuality. Encouraging punters to book their sun holidays and cruises on wishful thinking may come back to bite the Tories. |
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Post by alec on Jan 9, 2022 11:25:37 GMT
A neat little chart showing how more more children have been admitted to hospital with the Omicron variant than through the entire first wave with the original variant - /photo/1
Omicron is more severe than the original, not milder. It's only vaccines and infections that have built up resistance.
Viruses don't automatically get milder, and if new variants substantially evade previous acquired immunity, you start all over again.
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Post by alec on Jan 9, 2022 11:27:20 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 9, 2022 11:36:42 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 9, 2022 11:40:08 GMT
alec The regime has no economic policy it can't as in any reasoned form it would at the very least aim to restore single market status for the UK in Europe. But to do so would be to admit it's own stupidity. Consequently these stories of entirely predictable problems will continue until grown ups are in charge.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 11:44:18 GMT
Mmmm Energy - we're currently paying about £1,200 per year and our tariff runs to September '22, providing our supplier stays in business. I've just been on the Which? Switch site and I can go on variable and pay the equivalent of an extra £300 a year 'til the cap gets reviewed, or a one year fix at an extra £1,300 or so, or a two year fix at £1,800 a year more than now. Presumably those fixes are the suppliers hoping to, at least, cover their costs, which means their current pricing will be pessimistic, discouraging long term commitments. If we allowed for that it looks as if our cost increase will be around £1,000 in the next year and an additional £500 next year. I can't imagine how low income households will manage with rises like that, plus general inflation, plus taxation increases. Something has to give. Spot on . |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2022 11:49:00 GMT
Does @"Don't think anyone is getting excited" count as "alacrity" ? Which dictionary were you using ?  Thanks for reaching out across the aisle, Col. I hear your agonised wails drifting to me from yonder dark and murky fog. Reaching out to me, wistfully and from a land where the absence of political parties grants uncertainty, yes, but a freedom of thought and objectivity too that we must aspire to I will join you in that promised land one day, Col, I promise. Bear with me until then, I beg you. 🦉🏆🤣 Very funny But I'm not holding my breath-I know it comes hard for you-talking to the other "Team". |
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Post by barbara on Jan 9, 2022 11:52:01 GMT
Colin at 9.55: Good to see you responding in an adult fashion though-rather than the playground hoots from elsewhere.Colin at 10.07: Does "Don't think anyone is getting excited" count as "alacrity" ?
Which dictionary were you using ?Maybe two sarky faux-questions constitute "adult fashion" in Colin-world. That's the kind of game playing I referred some while ago and why I don't engage with that poster. For the record I do think Jim Jam is the most balanced poster on the board among those who are honest about their political allegiances. Well done to JimJam. |
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Post by steamdrivenandy on Jan 9, 2022 11:55:09 GMT
alec The regime has no economic policy it can't as in any reasoned form it would at the very least aim to restore single market status for the UK in Europe. But to do so would be to admit it's own stupidity. Consequently these stories of entirely predictable problems will continue until grown ups are in charge. That got me wondering 'what would Mrs T do'? Aside from handbagging the ERG many, many months, if not years, ago, what would she do if faced with the current situation in the country? Given her pragmatic nature I suspect she'd head immediately to Brussels and seek a much softer Brexit, with a view to re-entry asap slaying any opposition with dire warnings of what the idiots were doing to the place. After all the single market was one of her pet projects. I also suspect that a lot of Leave voters are Thatcherites to the bone, so they'd toe her line in adoration and finally remove the Farage sunglasses. |
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Post by robbiealive on Jan 9, 2022 12:06:33 GMT
Crossbat
"I'm surprised at the alacrity of your conclusion arrival here."
Yr use of alacrity is acceptable in this context, tho advise that alacrity is not an exact synonym for speed, if that was yr intended meaning: + "I'm surprised at the alacrity with which you reached your conclusion" would be more elegant:
Still it would be v mean-spirited indeed to discourage Mr P's bid to become the site's grammar monitor: tho his attempt does bring to mind Dr Johnson's (im)famous comment about women preaching . . .
I am going to submit a bid myself to St Mark of the Board as soon as I find my 'O' level English cert (1965).
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 9, 2022 12:10:06 GMT
alec Deaths from covid aren't identified by variant strain so it's not entirely clear how many of the hospital admissions are because of omicron and the UK no longer appears to record( or at least routinely publish) deaths by age criteria. It's a reasonable assumption that most admissions now are from omicron This wouldn't have been true mid December as hospital admissions lag positive findings by 6-10 days. The US records deaths by age and notes pre existing conditions of the approximately 30,000 deaths in the last month in the US 9 were of children under 18 ,all the children who died had not been vaccinated and all had pre-existing conditions around 0.03% of deaths This percentage is around five times lower than the percentage seen earlier in the pandemic throughout the world. If the figure were equated to the total deaths in the U.S. the number of children who would have died would equate to around 250 The actual number is in excess of 1000, still of course just over 0.1% of the total. More admissions may cause more deaths but the higher vaccination rate amongst children over 15 , who account for 50% of all child mortality cases should mitigate this. The data is pretty clear on this at an individual level the omicron variant is significantly less harmful. Data from the uk also shows that the number those seriously ill in hospital with covid have actually fallen in the last month. While the number in hospital has more than doubled in the last four weeks the number on ventilators has fallen by around 5% , nearly all of this fall is in the last week of data available and is a reasonable indicator of the reduced severity of omicron. People aren't getting as ill and are discharged quicker. Please don't go off into flights of fancy about " long covid" post viral syndrome as there's no reliable data on whether this exists in any meaningful sense in any different form from that related to similar post viral effects from similar respiratory diseases. I am trying to only refer to covid in relation to its impact on politics so I don't think we need to engage further on this one.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jan 9, 2022 12:24:14 GMT
alec Incidentally the graph you have provided is fundamentally flawed around mid December about 50% -70% of hospital admissions would have been from delta variant , some still will be , not 100% omicron
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