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Post by guymonde on Jul 4, 2024 23:45:03 GMT
The BBC subtitles just announced the sick Reform candidate in Newcastle (coming another worrying second) as Ashton Lung Cancer as opposed to Ashley Muncaster
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 23:46:36 GMT
Swingometer totally useless in this election - need a 3d version
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 23:47:01 GMT
Mohammed Shafiq
@mshafiquk
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8m
BREAKING NEWS: BBC Henry Zefferman say senior Labour source says that #JeremyCorbyn has won in #IslingtonNorth
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 23:48:24 GMT
That's good to know. They'll be drastically cutting immigration then? Its about more than immigration - people can't get on the housing ladder, hard to find well paying work, educational opportunities reduced, etc, etc. Farage already blamed the housing shortage on the total number of immigrants. Which if you refuse to build new homes as the counterpart of a policy of allowing mass immigration, is fair comment. Immigration has also deliberately been used to force down wages especially at the low end. Educational opportunities, well fair comment that the state system is grossly under resourced compared to private education. But labour's plan on this is to attack private education so it doesnt perform as well and therefore make the state system look better. Rather than fixing it. |
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 23:48:42 GMT
Newcastle & Washington results are the first to show Lab below & Reform above the Survation MRP predictions.
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Post by lefthanging on Jul 4, 2024 23:50:26 GMT
I know we've not had many results yet, but I've not seen much analysis looking at how the swings recorded compare with what would have been expected based on the exit poll, in order to determine how accurate said exit poll appears to be. What am I missing?
On that point - notwithstanding the fact that Reform are obviously taking some votes from Labour as well as the Conservatives - I don't really see how the Tories can manage even the 130ish seats predicted, if Reform are performing as strongly as we've seen in the results so far.
I just don't see how the exit poll can be trusted to pick all this up just from a hundred polling stations or so - what with the boundary changes, the massive rise of a previously non-existant party, the sheer size of the swing, etc.
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 23:51:45 GMT
Apparently this was in the exit poll too:
Not the Andrew Marr Show
@notandrewmarr1
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35m
BREAKING NEWS: Labour sources say they’ve lost #SheffieldHallam to the Lib Dems- Shaffaq Mohammed projected to win.
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 23:52:55 GMT
Patrick Maguire
@patrickkmaguire
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2m
Hearing that Stephanie Peacock likely to hold Barnsley South for Labour despite exit poll suggesting Reform gain
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 23:54:37 GMT
Patrick Maguire @patrickkmaguire · 2m Hearing that Stephanie Peacock likely to hold Barnsley South for Labour despite exit poll suggesting Reform gain Good. |
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soph
New Member
Posts: 15
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Post by soph on Jul 4, 2024 23:55:30 GMT
I know we've not had many results yet, but I've not seen much analysis looking at how the swings recorded compare with what would have been expected based on the exit poll, in order to get how accurate said exit poll appears to be. What am I missing? On that point - notwithstanding the fact that Reform are obviously taking some votes from Labour as well as the Conservatives - I don't really see how the Tories can manage even the 130ish seats predicted, if Reform are performing as strongly as we've seen in the results so far. I just don't see how the exit poll can be trusted to pick all this up just from a hundred polling stations or so - what with the boundary changes, the massive rise of a previously non-existant party, the sheer size of the swing, etc. Agreed on your last paragraph.
For your first question, John Curtice has so far said that Reform are slightly underperforming what their exit poll supposed but that the others are about in line.
He later said of Washington and Gateshead South: "We were expecting the Conservatives to lose 28 points, Labour to gain five and Reform gain 17 here.
In practice, the Conservatives are down 21, Labour are indeed up five, and Reform are up 15. Once again, Reform have come second in a heavily pro-Leave Labour seat."
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 23:57:32 GMT
shevii - Exit poll has Sheffield Hallam 97% chance Lib Dem gain
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:57:45 GMT
BBC still describing seats as 'pro-leave'. That was 2016. Brighton Kemptown could equally be described as 'pro-Tory' if 2016 is the reference point.
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jul 4, 2024 23:58:26 GMT
I know we've not had many results yet, but I've not seen much analysis looking at how the swings recorded compare with what would have been expected based on the exit poll, in order to get how accurate said exit poll appears to be. What am I missing? On that point - notwithstanding the fact that Reform are obviously taking some votes from Labour as well as the Conservatives - I don't really see how the Tories can manage even the 130ish seats predicted, if Reform are performing as strongly as we've seen in the results so far. I just don't see how the exit poll can be trusted to pick all this up just from a hundred polling stations or so - what with the boundary changes, the massive rise of a previously non-existant party, the sheer size of the swing, etc. sky news analysis of early results is that the exit poll is holding up quite well so far |
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Post by moby on Jul 4, 2024 23:58:41 GMT
Reports say Stephen Flynn in trouble.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:02:05 GMT
Reports say Stephen Flynn in trouble. This is clearly a very strange election when the governing party can be right royally tonked but still potentially win seats against leaders of other parties... 🤯 |
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:03:41 GMT
I know we've not had many results yet, but I've not seen much analysis looking at how the swings recorded compare with what would have been expected based on the exit poll, in order to determine how accurate said exit poll appears to be. What am I missing? On that point - notwithstanding the fact that Reform are obviously taking some votes from Labour as well as the Conservatives - I don't really see how the Tories can manage even the 130ish seats predicted, if Reform are performing as strongly as we've seen in the results so far. I just don't see how the exit poll can be trusted to pick all this up just from a hundred polling stations or so - what with the boundary changes, the massive rise of a previously non-existant party, the sheer size of the swing, etc. Although it is still very early, Sky showing that the vote share for Lab and Reform is close to the Exit poll prediction |
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Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Jul 5, 2024 0:05:55 GMT
Mohammed Shafiq @mshafiquk · 8m BREAKING NEWS: BBC Henry Zefferman say senior Labour source says that #JeremyCorbyn has won in #IslingtonNorth I think it might hit home to some of his voters, exactly who the man is when he takes his seat on the opposition benches alongside the Tories. He voted against Labour often enough as a Labour MP. He may well feel more at home looking directly at the Labour benches rather than looking at it with sideways glances. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 5, 2024 0:07:18 GMT
Feel ashamed and disgusted re the people in this country voting for Farage/Reform. Obscene. Farage's strategy is to find a fundamental truth which many will support, regardless of the wider picture. That is how he made brexit happen. Many do not like immigration, but both lab and con do. Farage is busy driving in the wedge between those parties and their former voters. More and more will vote for him unless now labour can defuse this issue. Con failed to do so, and so they are out. |
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Post by hireton on Jul 5, 2024 0:07:29 GMT
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Post by RAF on Jul 5, 2024 0:08:18 GMT
Labour source says Islington North is "looking difficult" - Sky News
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:13:05 GMT
Gateshead Central
lab 1st
Reform 2nd
LD 3rd
Con 4th
It's wipeout for the Tories up here in the NE of England
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:14:40 GMT
Gateshead Central and Whickham* Labour HOLD.
Meanwhile bears shit in the woods and Pope declares Catholicism a 'good idea'.
*Not to be confused with Wycombe or Wickham (Hampshire) I assume.
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Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2024 0:15:25 GMT
"Did Gaza hit Labour vote in Newcastle Central?
published at 01:03
01:03
Professor Sir John Curtice
BBC polling expert
As we reported earlier, Labour held Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West, where we were expecting the Conservatives to be down 22 points, Labour up two and Reform up 14.
In reality, the Conservatives are down 16, Labour down 14 and Reform up 11.
The pattern has been disturbed by the 9% vote for the independent candidate here, Yvonne Ridley, who was running on a pro-Gaza platform. This seems to have damaged Labour.
The population in this seat is 15% Muslim - maybe an indication of further Labour difficulties in seats with heavily Muslim seats."
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:16:43 GMT
Gateshead Central and Whickham* Labour HOLD. Meanwhile bears shit in the woods and Pope declares Catholicism a 'good idea'. *Not to be confused with Wycombe or Wickham (Hampshire) I assume. Whickham is to the WSW of Gateshead |
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Post by RAF on Jul 5, 2024 0:16:49 GMT
Gateshead Central lab 1st Reform 2nd LD 3rd Con 4th It's wipeout for the Tories up here in the NE of England It's your area, so I will ask this directly: in these traditional Labour hearlands there has always been at least 30-40% won by opposition parties. Are we seeing Reform gobble up a large chunk of the traditional non-Labour minority vote there? |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 5, 2024 0:17:52 GMT
Gateshead Central and Whickham* Labour HOLD. Meanwhile bears shit in the woods and Pope declares Catholicism a 'good idea'. *Not to be confused with Wycombe or Wickham (Hampshire) I assume. Compared to electoral calculus prediction lab and con did worse than they predicted, reform and Libs did better than predicted |
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Post by shevii on Jul 5, 2024 0:18:50 GMT
Patrick Maguire
@patrickkmaguire
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1m
Turnout here in Holborn and St Pancras a pretty measly 54.6 per cent – down 10.5 per cent on 2019
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Post by RAF on Jul 5, 2024 0:19:08 GMT
"Did Gaza hit Labour vote in Newcastle Central? published at 01:03 01:03 Professor Sir John Curtice BBC polling expert As we reported earlier, Labour held Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West, where we were expecting the Conservatives to be down 22 points, Labour up two and Reform up 14. In reality, the Conservatives are down 16, Labour down 14 and Reform up 11. The pattern has been disturbed by the 9% vote for the independent candidate here, Yvonne Ridley, who was running on a pro-Gaza platform. This seems to have damaged Labour. The population in this seat is 15% Muslim - maybe an indication of further Labour difficulties in seats with heavily Muslim seats." I believe this will happen. Not in every large Muslim minority seat but in a number of them. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:21:23 GMT
Gateshead Central and Whickham* Labour HOLD. Meanwhile bears shit in the woods and Pope declares Catholicism a 'good idea'. *Not to be confused with Wycombe or Wickham (Hampshire) I assume. Compared to electoral calculus prediction lab and con did worse than they predicted, reform and Libs did better than predicted Labour doing worse in all of their holds as said earlier. Con doing far worse everywhere because of Reform and Libs. |
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Post by alec on Jul 5, 2024 0:26:07 GMT
Lib Dems suggesting they've won Tunbridge Wells, which isn't forecast by the exit poll.
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