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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 23:09:01 GMT
Sunderland Central, Lab down on Survation MRP by c 5%, Reform down a similar amount, Lib Dems well up 6% and Greens also up.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:11:05 GMT
Apparently 25% Reform vote predicted for Portsmouth North. Who'd have thought it!!! UKIP got 19% in 2015 (when the Tories were strong). Why are the BBC gushing over this?! Shitholes be shitholes.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:12:04 GMT
Feel ashamed and disgusted re the people in this country voting for Farage/Reform.
Obscene.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 23:13:44 GMT
Sunderland central Labour hold, reform second Another city dropping down my 'places to visit' list. Is it only cities? Is Clacton still ok? (I think mercian might be adding some of these as places to visit…) |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:14:33 GMT
Feel ashamed and disgusted re the people in this country voting for Farage/Reform. Obscene. Bear in mind Reform/Brexit did not stand in 317* seats in 2019. Distorts results hugely.
*I haven't counted.. this was from a Google search.
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Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 23:15:19 GMT
Swindon South
Lab 21676 Heidi Alexander
12070 Robert Buckland
Lab gain
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 23:16:26 GMT
@sotonsaint and @fecklessmiser
It's that sort of attitude towards Farage and Reform that drives a lot of people to vote for them. There are a lot of people who feel that they and their concerns have been ignored for generations. Are they supposed to meekly vote for one of the parties that have ignored them? Or perhaps it's better that they don't exercise their vote?
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 23:16:35 GMT
Feel ashamed and disgusted re the people in this country voting for Farage/Reform. Obscene. I know, but, these are angry, ignored and powerless people. It is Labour, Green and Lib Dem fault that a real ideological message of change and hope wasn't offered. It is not the messenger but the message that was found wanting. |
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soph
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Post by soph on Jul 4, 2024 23:17:42 GMT
Just realised Survation made a final final MRP that wasn't the one I was looking at... woops. Still, seems (surprisingly?) accurate so far.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 23:18:20 GMT
Tory chairman Richard Holden’s new seat of Basildon & Billericay due soon…
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 23:20:41 GMT
Swindon S v close to Survation MRP too.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 23:22:24 GMT
Just realised, Channel 4 lacks the on the ground cameras and reporters, so for the sake of the Portillo moments I have just switched to BBC.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:24:34 GMT
Just realised, Channel 4 lacks the on the ground cameras and reporters, so for the sake of the Portillo moments I have just switched to BBC. BBC is very budget-cutty compared to previous elections, but watchable now Mandy and Dr Reform twat have finished sniping at each other. |
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Post by pete on Jul 4, 2024 23:25:35 GMT
Talking 12% swing or more
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 23:26:26 GMT
Turnout down a lot so far- understandable in the safe Lab seats but maybe not so much the 6.6% down in Swindon South even if Tories did stay at home. Don't think the Independent is going to be right about huge turnout!
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Post by bendo on Jul 4, 2024 23:27:05 GMT
Just realised, Channel 4 lacks the on the ground cameras and reporters, so for the sake of the Portillo moments I have just switched to BBC. BBC is very budget-cutty compared to previous elections, but watchable now Mandy and Dr Reform twat have finished sniping at each other. Has Laura quit yet? |
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 23:27:44 GMT
Just realised, Channel 4 lacks the on the ground cameras and reporters, so for the sake of the Portillo moments I have just switched to BBC. I wondered why all we were only getting boring politicians yapping away. I'll try Sky News |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:27:53 GMT
Swindon South Labour vote 48.4%. In 2017 it was 43.5%. These marginals are going to be remorseless.
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 23:27:58 GMT
16% Con -> Lab swing in Swindon !
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Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 23:28:21 GMT
Washington & Gateshead SS
Lab hold
Reform 2nd
Con 3rd
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 23:30:18 GMT
Decent result perhaps with LD, Green and Reform all stronger, but way less than most polls were suggesting. As I've mentioned tonight, Labour are doing worse in safe Labour constituencies because the expectation is a landslide and people feel free to vote other. I agree that people feel free to vote other because the least worst big party was going to be the winner. BUT...this is a message those voters PREFER the reform message. Interesting listening to some of the debate on Ch4 arguing that a failure to deliver on levelling up was the problem for the tories. I still think, as indeed others on CH4, that the problem is IMMIGRATION. There seems to be total denial that the problem is immigration, and this isnt boat people, its the hundreds of thousands invited to come here to work. LAB and CON both have continued immigration as a central plank of their policy, which Dorries or Stewart argued was their downfall. And its a downfall which is showing up as a falling share for labour in their red wall seats with reform coming second. Yes, LAB may get back most of those red walls lost to con, but the few results so far are showing them losing voters to reform in the seats they had managed to hold on to.
Someone argued reform will be coming for labour next time round. So far its already coming for lab, in just the same way and on just the same issues as in the brexit campaign. Con managed to avoid the immigration issue for ten years by promising that once brexit was done they would be able to end immigration. Only they never could do that, because their planning relies upon immigration. Farage has called them out for hypocrisy, and in 5 years he will be able to call out labour too.
Labour has committed itself to not raising taxes in a country under taxed compared to other similar countries.
Labour doesnt want to know about rejoining the EU. Trouble is being a member was always an economic plus, it is the immigration that many saw as the problem which had nothing to do with EU membership. To sort out this mess you have to address it, which must include admitting brexit was a mistake and we need to rejoin. And then find a consensus either to make the case successfully for continued immigration, or settle on a policy which avoids the need for it.
Although this may be a FPP landslide for lab (not quite convinced yet whether this is going to play out as per exit poll), its a very brittle win in reality with likely falling not rising public support compared to the last couple of elections.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 23:32:48 GMT
In Sunderland with 45% the apathy party wins. Just over 50% of the electorate could be arsed to vote at all. You mean....there was no party worth the effort of going out to vote for them. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 23:33:34 GMT
Just realised, Channel 4 lacks the on the ground cameras and reporters, so for the sake of the Portillo moments I have just switched to BBC. I wondered why all we were only getting boring politicians yapping away. I'll try Sky News Sky News seems to be the best- more on the stats and less on the chat. |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 23:37:32 GMT
Feel ashamed and disgusted re the people in this country voting for Farage/Reform. Obscene. I know, but, these are angry, ignored and powerless people. Amen. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 23:38:32 GMT
Sterling is up apparently so markets seem ok with Labour
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Post by hireton on Jul 4, 2024 23:38:47 GMT
In other news, Chris Grayling is given a peerage in the Dissolution Honours.
And Hilary Cass is given a peerage for delivering the report that the Tories wanted.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 23:39:41 GMT
Thinking Conservatives may do a bit worse than exit polls are forecasting, need to see some results in the south, hopefully Reform also under perform. Hmm. The higher number of MPs predicted for reform, and lower for lab might well reflect con votes going to reform instead of to labour, hence enabling con to hold on better against the actual winner labour. |
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Post by keithp on Jul 4, 2024 23:39:46 GMT
Decent result perhaps with LD, Green and Reform all stronger, but way less than most polls were suggesting. As I've mentioned tonight, Labour are doing worse in safe Labour constituencies because the expectation is a landslide and people feel free to vote other. Labour has committed itself to not raising taxes in a country under taxed compared to other similar countries.Firstyl
Labour doesnt want to know about rejoining the EU. Trouble is being a member was always an economic plus, it is the immigration that many saw as the problem which had nothing to do with EU membership. To sort out this mess you have to address it, which must include admitting brexit was a mistake and we need to rejoin. And then find a consensus either to make the case successfully for continued immigration, or settle on a policy which avoids the need for it.
Firstly Labour needs to do something (ideally, a lot) about child poverty. Aside from being outrageous in one of the richest nations in the world, it does long term damage to the economy and the social fabric of society. Irregular immigration is a Europe-wide issue and it needs to be addressed on that basis. That means (gasp) talking to the EU. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 23:39:56 GMT
Robert Buckland realises the next generation are left-behind and can't own homes and stuff, and the Conservative Party needed to do something about this.
FOURTEEN YEARS after he became part of their government 🤦
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Post by peterbell on Jul 4, 2024 23:44:31 GMT
Newcastle Central
Lab hold
Reform 2nd again
Con 3rd
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