Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:30:10 GMT
"Did Gaza hit Labour vote in Newcastle Central? published at 01:03 01:03 Professor Sir John Curtice BBC polling expert As we reported earlier, Labour held Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West, where we were expecting the Conservatives to be down 22 points, Labour up two and Reform up 14. In reality, the Conservatives are down 16, Labour down 14 and Reform up 11. The pattern has been disturbed by the 9% vote for the independent candidate here, Yvonne Ridley, who was running on a pro-Gaza platform. This seems to have damaged Labour. The population in this seat is 15% Muslim - maybe an indication of further Labour difficulties in seats with heavily Muslim seats." I believe this will happen. Not in every large Muslim minority seat but in a number of them. Islam is the 2nd religion in my seat, Southampton Test. Currently 6% of population. I doubt it will have an effect on the result but we'll see. The candidate is a Sikh. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:34:02 GMT
Green ahead of Cons in South Shields. WTAF?!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 5, 2024 0:34:10 GMT
Lib Dems have Harrogate and Knaresboro apparently
(and claiming they’ve taken Chichester though unconfirmed, removing Gillian Keegan)
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:34:39 GMT
Gateshead Central lab 1st Reform 2nd LD 3rd Con 4th It's wipeout for the Tories up here in the NE of England It's your area, so I will ask this directly: in these traditional Labour hearlands there has always been at least 30-40% won by opposition parties. Are we seeing Reform gobble up a large chunk of the traditional non-Labour minority vote there? From the results I have seen it looks as though the Lab vote share is down by a few % and the sum of Reform and Con is slightly higher than the opposition previously obtained. LD & Green have only a small share although in two of the seat LDs are above Con. THus the Lab majority has dropped slightly. EDIT I should have mentioned that Reform have typically twice the vote share cf. Con. |
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Post by alec on Jul 5, 2024 0:35:28 GMT
Harrogate gain for Lib Dems. Notable, that comp to Survation MRP LD vote was 8% higher and Lab vote 10% lower than expected. This *may* be a sign that tactical ABT voting is more powerful than expected?
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:36:52 GMT
Sky saying that it looks as though Gillian Keegan is to lose her seat
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Post by alec on Jul 5, 2024 0:38:14 GMT
And the potentially add to that, Sky hearing that Chichester is going to go orange. Exit poll had this 85% Con hold.
Things might be about the get decidedly rougher for the blues.
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Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2024 0:38:21 GMT
I believe this will happen. Not in every large Muslim minority seat but in a number of them. Islam is the 2nd religion in my seat, Southampton Test. Currently 6% of population. I doubt it will have an effect on the result but we'll see. The candidate is a Sikh. There are some seats where the Muslim population is over 30% and a couple where it's over 50%. Those are the ones where it might make a difference, especially if the number of Muslim voters is larger than the Labour majority. I doubt that it will affect results in more than one or two but you never know. |
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Post by Mark on Jul 5, 2024 0:41:07 GMT
Liz Truss could fall! Result not expected until 5.30am, though.
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Post by RAF on Jul 5, 2024 0:42:28 GMT
First Con hold is in Essex. Rayleigh and Wickford
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:42:35 GMT
Lib Dems suggesting they've won Tunbridge Wells, which isn't forecast by the exit poll. And Chichester, (Gillian Keegan). |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:42:46 GMT
Sky saying that it looks as though Gillian Keegan is to lose her seat Delicious. Chichester is a wonderful city not far from me - I've been there quite a few times, walked the city walls and the beautiful harbour. There is a great alehouse too. Full of OAPs and not far from Bognor so if this goes (for the first time in 100 years) hurrah. |
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:42:59 GMT
Lab gain Stroud from Con
Con hold Rayleigh & Wickford
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 5, 2024 0:43:55 GMT
Chichester wasn’t one of the 67 seats electoral calculus had for LD
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Post by alec on Jul 5, 2024 0:43:59 GMT
I think we're seeing a really fascinating election, that is largely a facet of the FPTP system. Labour is going to get a stonking majority, Tories are going to get hammered, but I'm not seeing this as such a decisive election for Labour in vote terms. Low turnout, and a rather modest %, this really shouldn't be such a romping success for Labour.
It's clear now why Starmer was so clear about the future relationship with the EU, and Reform are a potential problem for Labour as well as Conservatives, but Labour are also under pressure from the left. The big uptick in Green votes are the other big story of the night.
As I suggested in 2019, the result for Labour is quite fragile. In 2019 it was because Johnson had to deliver the undeliverable. This time I think it's because a few relatively modest shifts in voting patterns might leave Labour vulnerable.
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Post by Mark on Jul 5, 2024 0:45:15 GMT
Looking like the Greens are going to get Bristol Central.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 5, 2024 0:46:34 GMT
Looking like the Greens are going to get Bristol Central. Told you all so. |
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:47:33 GMT
Lab gain Nuneaton from Con. However total of Con+ Reform > Lab
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:47:35 GMT
Apparently Mark Francois in Raleigh -36% 😱😱😱😱
Absolutely horrendous.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2024 0:51:30 GMT
First Con hold is in Essex. Rayleigh and Wickford No surprise about that! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:51:37 GMT
Lab gain Nuneaton from Con. However total of Con+ Reform > Lab I understand the concern, and it's very good of you as a decent person, but how much do you reckon any Tory has ever cared about CON < LD+LAB+GRN? Not a lot. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 5, 2024 0:51:49 GMT
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:52:12 GMT
Lab gain Darlington
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2024 0:54:21 GMT
I think we're seeing a really fascinating election, that is largely a facet of the FPTP system. Labour is going to get a stonking majority, Tories are going to get hammered, but I'm not seeing this as such a decisive election for Labour in vote terms. Low turnout, and a rather modest %, this really shouldn't be such a romping success for Labour. It's clear now why Starmer was so clear about the future relationship with the EU, and Reform are a potential problem for Labour as well as Conservatives, but Labour are also under pressure from the left. The big uptick in Green votes are the other big story of the night. As I suggested in 2019, the result for Labour is quite fragile. In 2019 it was because Johnson had to deliver the undeliverable. This time I think it's because a few relatively modest shifts in voting patterns might leave Labour vulnerable. i think Labour will use their 5 years in power better than the Conservatives have theirs - admittedly not especially difficult. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:54:41 GMT
The red wall comes home 🧱🧱🧱
BBC seemingly very upset about this. Turnout very low (although pretty much the same as 2005).
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Post by alec on Jul 5, 2024 0:55:27 GMT
Looks really interesting. Lab performance in some of these seats (darlow, Nuneton) isn't as good as some of the predictions, but enough to win, but Cons are performing worse than expectations in some other seats (Chichester) which is enough to see them lose.
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Post by alec on Jul 5, 2024 0:56:29 GMT
Basildon on a knife edge. Recount, 20 votes in it.
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Post by RAF on Jul 5, 2024 0:57:29 GMT
Basildon on a knife edge. Recount, 20 votes in it. Shades of the multiple recounts in Amber Rudd's seat a few years ago. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 0:58:22 GMT
Nuneaton Con vote -32%
Turnout very low. What's happened in the last few years to turn people off the Conservatives so much, and politics in general?! 🤔🙄
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Post by peterbell on Jul 5, 2024 0:58:36 GMT
I'm pleased for the Green Leader who has impressed, but disappointed for Thangam Debonaire who I also think is very good. Hopefully she will get another seat in the not too distant future. |
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