|
|
Post by nickpoole on Nov 2, 2024 11:38:02 GMT
Kemi Badenoch, who has said that Robert Jenrick has a "whiff of impropriety" about him, now says he "has a key role to play in our party for many years to come"... To Tories, a "whiff of impropriety" is a plus, not a minus. |
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Nov 2, 2024 11:40:06 GMT
JiB: But in the meantime, the retention of neonics is the one tangible result of our newfound 'freedom' to set agricultural policy that I can think of. Is that the end of bumble bees then? |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Nov 2, 2024 11:40:13 GMT
The Polls in America probably show the results of herding as pointed out on here and in a Guardian article today. Possibly the best indicator of the result will be difference in turnout between Men and Women, If more women vote than usual I think Trumps done and Harris wins, at least I hope so! My only caveat is whether America is ready to elect a female President. 538's forecast has slipped from 53-47 Trump to 51-49 (505 to 493 out of 1000). Which is a statistical tie. My head says Trump, my heart says Harris, but my gut feel remains that Harris will win. Then all hell will break loose as the Republicans try to steal the election. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 11:41:27 GMT
Kemi Badenoch, who has said that Robert Jenrick has a "whiff of impropriety" about him, now says he "has a key role to play in our party for many years to come"... To Tories, a "whiff of impropriety" is a plus, not a minus. Yes sorry my mistake, I assumed she meant it as criticism 😀 |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Nov 2, 2024 11:42:49 GMT
Badenoch wins as expected. Tory members can be reliably depended on to pick the looniest option available. I rather think you may be underestimating Badenoch's political skills and also the fickleness of the electorate. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 11:48:14 GMT
Interesting to note from the election the tory party membership has fallen to 131,680, I think the lowest on record
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Nov 2, 2024 11:54:00 GMT
Absolutely not. We now have a clean slate for a true Agri Environment scheme in the UK, and a Government that doesn't have a vested interest to pander to the agro lobby. An agro lobby equally responsible with the sewage dumpers for the disgraceful state of water quality in the UK via slurry and trashing every last vestige of nature. We can always trust some to defend the indefensible. A clear Brexit +++. I'm going to agree with Somerjohn on this. I agree with you that CAP was poor but the protections the EU gave us on environment (even given how CAP was not stunning on environmental matters) was certainly better than the last government given our new "freedoms". Early signs are the EU would have been better on environmental matters than this government as well. You can't expect the new government to have things sorted in three months but there appears to be no direction of travel whatsoever on the environment, other than on renewables where every indication is they will be pushed through without any consideration of other environmental impacts. |
|
|
|
Post by jib on Nov 2, 2024 12:12:38 GMT
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Nov 2, 2024 12:14:49 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by eor on Nov 2, 2024 12:16:50 GMT
Thanks Neil, What I was struggling to find was the change in EC votes for 2024 v 2020 (Texas + 2 for example). After a while I have come across CNN's page which helpfully resets 2020s result to the 2024 EC votes. This shows that as you say, Harris retains the rust belt and wins by 4 EC votes. In other words, Trump can take all 3 of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada and would be 2 short of a tie. Edit, cant upload the CNN page/site!! +/- from last time gets tricky because the changes to the weightings affect some combinations and not others. North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania gets Trump over the line. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania gets Harris home. If neither of these sets happen it's probably going to be too random an outcome to dwell much on the permutations in advance, as these two aren't just the neatest routes numerically, but factor the biggest demographic overlaps and the (slight but persistent) differences between the states in polling and recent elections. So if the states are splitting even within those then we'd be into the realm of tossing six or seven coins and they'd both have dozens of routes. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Nov 2, 2024 12:23:42 GMT
So the woman married to a multimillionaire banker who thinks people on minimum wage don't need maternity pay is the new winner of Tory party celebrity twat factor.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Nov 2, 2024 12:29:15 GMT
Badenoch wins as expected. Tory members can be reliably depended on to pick the looniest option available. I rather think you may be underestimating Badenoch's political skills and also the fickleness of the electorate. I don't underestimate the volatility of the electorate, but I can't find any evidence of political skills from Badenoch. She doesn't seem to have a single solid achievement from any of her ministerial posts. What there is plenty of evidence of is that she bullied of civil servants, is obsessed with culture war issues (often bogus, like the cat pupil incident) of little significance to the public, is short-tempered and prone to argue with interviewers and given to making silly remarks, such as saying 10% of civil servants should be jailed or suggesting that maternity pay is an excessive burden on business. |
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Nov 2, 2024 12:40:59 GMT
Hiya everyone! So its been a while since I posted - but thought both the budget and Tory leadership outcome were worthy of comment, as is the US election next week.
On the budget, I'm not sure why commentators are so 'surprised' - its the budget you would expect from a neo-Keynesian chancellor and a party whose victory in the next GE will in part be decided by the extent to which voters think that services have got better and their own situation has improved. Perhaps Starmer/Reeves decisions' look to be driven by a desire to benefit 'their' voters - who are the ones who lost out over the past 14 years - working parents/younger voters/public sector workers - the ones to pay are those who benefited from Tory rule, the wealthier and older voters (who by and large don't tend to vote Labour).
Badenoch's victory seems to illustrate that the Tory party membership remains socially conservative and economically liberal - the extent to which she sticks to this or moves to a more centralist space (which is what successful opposition leaders tend to do) we will have to wait and see, but her fate is more likely to be driven by Labour's success or failure. It will be an uphill struggle for her to regain the trust of the electorate - as long as most voters see Labour as at least the lesser of two evils, so to speak, Tory electoral prospects will remain constrained.
On the US - if the Republicans had virtually anyone else but Trump as their candidate they would be walking this election. In democracies its very difficult for incumbent parties to not suffer at the polls following an economic event that has directly impacted households' living standards. Trump's negatives, especially with women, are keeping the democrats in the race. In my opinion, wrongly, in the minds of many Americans, Trump has a reputation for being good with the economy. So he may very well win!
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 12:50:25 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by eor on Nov 2, 2024 13:07:20 GMT
Interesting way to look at it - Silver claims that it's statistically highly unlikely that all the swing states could be this close, and that pollsters are herding. Two slightly different things... he's saying R&W's last poll is in and of itself highly implausible for how close it shows the states all being to each other. And that in state polling in general some pollsters (but not others) have now done too many polls without turning up enough/any outliers. Whether that means they're typically herding up, down or just towards the middle of their own ranges would make quite the difference to the impact. Also worth noting that Silver is punitively weighting the firms that data suggests are doing it, to what seems like relatively minor impact on the averages. Obviously it's going to undermine confidence regardless. But things are so close so late that everyone picking a winner now will be going on instinct anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by turk on Nov 2, 2024 14:24:27 GMT
Absolutely delighted Kemi Badenoch has been appointed Leader of what I still see as my party. Judging from the bile of the usual suspects on these pages she got a few of you rattled already.
Maybe some of you Labour/ Libdem supporters could tell us why the two other major parties in Westminster seem only ever to be capable of electing white male leaders. I can’t believe there are no female candidates who would be just as capable . Maybe it’s just male chauvinism ,women good enough to be ministers but never good enough to be leaders.
Hopefully the Tory party it shouldn’t have to much difficulty to re-establish credibility with the voters , there already beginning to rise in the polls and retake council seats and let’s be honest Labour on there present showing aren’t exactly setting a very high bar for any party to jump over.
Looking forward for Kemi to establish herself and give that dullard Starmer a run for his money at PMQ.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Nov 2, 2024 14:25:00 GMT
Just a reminder the criminal rapist is on pre trial release in two of his cases and pre sentencing release in the other. His threats to shoot Liz Cheney almost certainly breach his release terms in each of them in addition to being another felony in Arizona when the disgusting coward made his remarks while talking to certifiable lunatic Tucker Carlson. youtu.be/zWk7-uu77Ag?si=NI_R7Sj6xAdX_DYg |
|
|
|
Post by pete on Nov 2, 2024 14:26:12 GMT
So, they expect people to work for nothing? £12.21 an hour for doing such hard work is not a lot. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 14:28:44 GMT
Absolutely delighted Kemi Badenoch has been appointed Leader of what I still see as my party. For once we agree...will make Labour chances of getting reelected so much easier. Just hope they don't get rid of her before the next election and put in some one atleast half competent |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Nov 2, 2024 14:28:56 GMT
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Nov 2, 2024 14:30:43 GMT
neilj"For once we agree..." Can I join you the lib dems fully endorse the choice of a far right delusional brexitanian loon as leader of the conservative party.
|
|
|
|
Post by pete on Nov 2, 2024 14:44:22 GMT
Regarding Americas Election.
I'm calling it for Harris
Why do I think Harris will win. More women than men will vote. *fingers crossed*
Though I can foresee a mini civil war. Nothing like the civil war of 1861. but there's lots of anger out there and Trump and his cohorts have all ready laid the groundwork for his supporters to believe he was cheated (many haven't gotten over 2020). I can see lots of shootings, mass ones, possibly at venues where Dems meet etc.
If Harris wins for the next few years prominent Dems supporters need to be aware of their safety.
Scary times even if Trump wins as he's obviously gotten fascist tendencies. And lots of non Republican (more Libertarian imo)nutters around him.
A lot of this is the fault o Murdoch. They could stopped a lot of this crap years ago.
|
|
|
|
Post by RAF on Nov 2, 2024 14:51:19 GMT
Absolutely delighted Kemi Badenoch has been appointed Leader of what I still see as my party. For once we agree...will make Labour chances of getting reelected so much easier. Just hope they don't get rid of her before the next election and put in some one atleast half competent It will be interesting to see whether Kemi Badenoch notices that Labour has moved away from Starmer's previous focus as party leader and now PM on social/cultural to economic issues, or wants to continue in her preferred space aa a culture warrior. If she does not adapt, she ma6 be in trouble. |
|
|
|
Post by JohnC on Nov 2, 2024 15:01:51 GMT
To Tories, a "whiff of impropriety" is a plus, not a minus. Yes sorry my mistake, I assumed she meant it as criticism 😀 Immediately after telling the party "we let standards slip" came "I'd also like to pay a special tribute to Robert"! |
|
|
|
Post by RAF on Nov 2, 2024 15:02:30 GMT
Nate's latest update to the Silver Bulleton weighted winning probabilities graph. x.com/NateSilver538/status/1852724411696119808Trump 51.1% Harris 48.5% The trend to Harris is now very clear. But as this is based on polling, and as a number of experts are wary of polling organisations engaging in herding, it is unclear whether we are seeing a real shift in VI or the race being made to look artificially close (when one or the other of the candidates may actually be further ahead). |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,733
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 2, 2024 15:03:43 GMT
I rather think you may be underestimating Badenoch's political skills and also the fickleness of the electorate. I don't underestimate the volatility of the electorate, but I can't find any evidence of political skills from Badenoch. She doesn't seem to have a single solid achievement from any of her ministerial posts. . it’s possible that not royally effing up might be considered an achievement these days? |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Nov 2, 2024 15:28:12 GMT
A huge rural surge of early votes in Nevada. John Ralston - respected NV watcher - thinks Dems will really struggle to win here. The big rural turnout is a feature elsewhere too, and this suggests Trump is on track.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Nov 2, 2024 15:55:09 GMT
Absolutely delighted Kemi Badenoch has been appointed Leader of what I still see as my party. Judging from the bile of the usual suspects on these pages she got a few of you rattled already. Maybe some of you Labour/ Libdem supporters could tell us why the two other major parties in Westminster seem only ever to be capable of electing white male leaders. I can’t believe there are no female candidates who would be just as capable . Maybe it’s just male chauvinism ,women good enough to be ministers but never good enough to be leaders. Hopefully the Tory party it shouldn’t have to much difficulty to re-establish credibility with the voters , there already beginning to rise in the polls and retake council seats and let’s be honest Labour on there present showing aren’t exactly setting a very high bar for any party to jump over. Looking forward for Kemi to establish herself and give that dullard Starmer a run for his money at PMQ. And low and behold, there it is. Comedy gold. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Nov 2, 2024 16:10:42 GMT
I don't underestimate the volatility of the electorate, but I can't find any evidence of political skills from Badenoch. She doesn't seem to have a single solid achievement from any of her ministerial posts. . it’s possible that not royally effing up might be considered an achievement these days? Oh, she managed a few screw-ups in office: "In 2022, Badenoch, as Equalities Minister, approved the appointment of Joanne Cash as a Commissioner to the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) board. Badenoch said that Cash had "a track record of promoting women's rights and freedom of expression". Subsequently, in the summer of 2022, Cash donated to Badenoch's campaign as a candidate for leadership of the Conservative Party." Nothing to see there obviously!  "In late April 2023, Badenoch announced that the government was planning to reduce the number of laws to be repealed to around 800, as opposed to the government's original target of around 4,000 laws. The change was met with dismay by Brexit advocates, including the Bill's original architect Jacob Rees-Mogg." "On 1 May 2024 Badenoch's office used a letter sent by Conservative MP Eddie Hughes to Walsall Academy as evidence to support Badenoch's claim that girls at a school who did not want to use gender-neutral toilets developed urinary tract infections. Hughes had claimed in May 2023 in a letter to Walsall Academy that "one female pupil has developed a UTI" as she did not feel comfortable using gender-neutral toilets." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemi_Badenoch |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,733
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Nov 2, 2024 16:12:19 GMT
pjw1961I suppose my yardstick for royally effing up might be something like Hancock
|
|
