neilj
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Posts: 6,393
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Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 9:56:40 GMT
Musk agrees with this post
'Keir Starmer’s communist regime is introducing an inheritance tax to kill off UK family farming so ultimately only centralized state controlled farms will survive.
The motive is always the same: control the food, control the people'
Slightly better than claiming Starmer plans to treat farmers like Stalin treated the Kulaks I suppose...
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Post by colin on Nov 2, 2024 9:59:46 GMT
"Investors are warning of a lingering “risk premium” in UK government borrowing costs after Rachel Reeves’ Budget sent gilt yields close to their highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis.
The chancellor’s plans to significantly scale up borrowing sparked two days of choppy trading, and by Thursday afternoon sterling was also falling — echoing the reaction to then prime minister Liz Truss’s ill-fated “mini” Budget two years ago, which sparked a pension fund fire sale and full-blown gilts crisis.
The 10-year gilt yield, which moves inversely to prices, climbed as high as 4.53 per cent on Thursday, close to the 4.63 reached in 2022. It steadied at 4.45 per cent on Friday.
Most investors played down comparisons with the much steeper gilt sell-off two years ago, which also saw the pound crash to an all-time low. But they nevertheless said Reeves’ plans would have a lasting effect on the government’s cost of borrowing.
“The move is the market kind of rejecting the Budget itself, introducing a new fiscal risk premium into the UK,” said Mark McCormick, head of FX and EM strategy at TD Securities. The government had “really tried to push the needle” with its spending and borrowing plans, he added.
The surge in yields confounded many traders’ hopes for a rebound in gilts once the Budget was out of the way, and suggested the start of a new period of antagonism between bond investors and the Treasury.
“There’s a risk premium there, even if the environment now is vastly different to what it was two years ago,” said James Athey, a rates investor at asset manager Marlborough Group.
Bond investors had fully expected Reeves’ first Budget to include higher borrowing. But they failed to anticipate both its scale — about £30bn extra a year — and that it would push up expectations for interest rates and bond yields.
Nick Hayes, a portfolio manager at Axa’s investment management arm, said any comparison with Truss’s mini-Budget was “night and day”, but added: “It turned out to be option three. Neither Truss nor good.”
The Office for Budget Responsibility warned that “the full extent of discretionary fiscal easing in this Budget was unlikely to have been anticipated by market participants at this time.”
The result on Wednesday was a “total rollercoaster”, according to one investor. Gilts initially rallied as the chancellor spoke, before selling off sharply as the scale of the borrowing — and the potential for slower interest rate cuts — became clear. Rate-sensitive two-year gilts were particularly hard hit.
The selling continued on Thursday, as investors pored over the Budget details. They questioned whether some of Reeves’ assumptions for how much she could raise through tax increases and the degree to which future spending can be reined in were too optimistic, and whether she would have to come back to the bond market as early as next year.
The gap between UK and German bond yields rose above 2 percentage points this week, at around its highest levels since Truss was in Downing Street."
FT
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Post by johntel on Nov 2, 2024 10:05:58 GMT
Surely any farmer wanting to pass on their farm to the next generation will just take out life insurance to cover inheritance tax up to their retirement and then gift the farm to their children (keeping the life insurance going during the 7 years that the tax tapers down)?
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Post by shevii on Nov 2, 2024 10:07:49 GMT
Well it's National Trust voting day results so always a concerning time although "restore the trust" haven't made any obvious progress in recent years. I'd object less to "Restore the Trust" if they weren't obviously picking up on stupid things such as the vegan scones issue and some acknowledgement of slavery. Also they seem to be more focused on buildings than they do on nature.
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Post by colin on Nov 2, 2024 10:10:41 GMT
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Post by alec on Nov 2, 2024 10:16:24 GMT
Maybe it's just a grey day here affected my mood, but I can't escape the feeling that the polls are undercooking Trump and Wednesday morning will see a grim sweep through the swing states.
This time he's prepared. I don't think his second term would be as chaotic as the first, and he would force through more horrors, as the swarm of extremists around him are well prepped.
Everything just feels bad, although I've read that there was a surge of black voting in the last set of EV tabulations.
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neilj
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Posts: 6,393
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Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 10:18:15 GMT
A lot of money has gone on Badenoch in the betting markets this morning, now 90% certain to win
I do hope no bets were placed with insider information...again
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Post by leftieliberal on Nov 2, 2024 10:22:18 GMT
I give whoever wins the Tory leadership election no more than two years. Cleverley knows that the Parliamentary Party will come calling on him again to get them out of the mess that they are in. I hope he will be a Michael Howard not a David Cameron, though. |
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steve
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Posts: 12,649
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Post by steve on Nov 2, 2024 10:23:38 GMT
neilj Around 13-15% seems about right, but worth noting this is around double the percentage impacted in the larger community by iht. The issue with iht and farming is that the returns on farming aren't particularly high compared to the value of the farm.A farm valued at £3 million will on average make around £100,000 profit a year given the hours and family contribution this probably equates to around minimum wage.It's really not worth the effort unless you are invested in the way of life. It's not a problem unique to British farming there are similar issues throughout Europe My concern is that additional iht or even the fear of it could lead small and medium sized family farms to sell out to speculators and major land owners as it's just too much effort for the return. Targeting the major land owners often inherited estates with wealth taxes is in my opinion more equitable.
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steve
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Post by steve on Nov 2, 2024 10:27:09 GMT
alec"Maybe it's just a grey day here affected my mood, but I can't escape the feeling that the polls are undercooking Trump and Wednesday morning will see a grim sweep through the swing states" You're such a ray of sunshine aren't you. I on the other hand anticipate a sizable democratic win with control of the house as well.
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Post by nickpoole on Nov 2, 2024 10:33:26 GMT
It's nice to see old style arguments about taxation, investment spending and pensioners living in mansions being forced to sell. Makes a change after culture wars for years. .....not forgetting new style stories of payroll tax raid on the Social Care sector putting providers.at risk of closure. The NHS is going to need more beds. Good job they got all the money. Still a policy row about effect of taxation. Not stupidity about rainbow lanyards etc |
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Post by nickpoole on Nov 2, 2024 10:33:52 GMT
alec"Maybe it's just a grey day here affected my mood, but I can't escape the feeling that the polls are undercooking Trump and Wednesday morning will see a grim sweep through the swing states" You're such a ray of sunshine aren't you. I on the other hand anticipate a sizable democratic win with control of the house as well. Hope so |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
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Post by steve on Nov 2, 2024 10:34:39 GMT
johntel What normally happens if a farmer has family who are invested in carrying on the family business they are already joint owners of the farm and already work it. If a farm is passed on to a child who isn't interested in a farming life , they may keep the residential building but sell on the farm. Increased iht liability probably makes this more likely.
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Post by somerjohn on Nov 2, 2024 10:35:36 GMT
JiB:"leaving the dreadful Common Agri Policy CAP was a great big hummongus (sic) success."
Is that intended to be ironic?
If you really believe that farmers, consumers or the environment have seen any benefits from leaving the CAP, would you care to explain what you think they are?
I suppose the ability of farmers in the UK to continue using bee-killing neonics on their sugarbeet monoculture megafarms, while they're now banned under the CAP, can be chalked up as a 'humongous success' for those cute little family firms in the agrichemical and sugar industries, but I can't think of any other winners.
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Post by colin on Nov 2, 2024 10:36:26 GMT
I give whoever wins the Tory leadership election no more than two years. Cleverley knows that the Parliamentary Party will come calling on him again to get them out of the mess that they are in. I hope he will be a Michael Howard not a David Cameron, though. Could well be. Its going to be a tough gig. Though Starmer is not Blair. |
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Post by jib on Nov 2, 2024 10:37:54 GMT
JiB: "leaving the dreadful Common Agri Policy CAP was a great big hummongus (sic) success."Is that intended to be ironic? If you really believe that farmers, consumers or the environment have seen any benefits from leaving the CAP, would you care to explain what you think they are? I suppose the ability of farmers in the UK to continue using bee-killing neonics on their sugarbeet monoculture megafarms, while they're now banned under the CAP, can be chalked up as a 'humongous success' for those cute little family firms in the agrichemical and sugar industries, but I can't think of any other winners. Absolutely not. We now have a clean slate for a true Agri Environment scheme in the UK, and a Government that doesn't have a vested interest to pander to the agro lobby. An agro lobby equally responsible with the sewage dumpers for the disgraceful state of water quality in the UK via slurry and trashing every last vestige of nature. We can always trust some to defend the indefensible. A clear Brexit +++. |
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Post by matt126 on Nov 2, 2024 10:50:00 GMT
Am I right that if Trump flips Arizona and Georgia Harris still wins? If Nevada also flips the maths look very close as the EC votes are different in 24 than they were in 2020. I checked this on www.270towin.com where there is an interactive map. IF you give Harris the closest swing states according to the polls (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) and the rest to Trump, It comes up with 270 Harris 268 Trump. There are 2 states that split the Electoral college votes. Nebraska (projected 4-1 to Trump) and Maine (3-1 Harris) Apparently if the score was 269-269 then the House would elect the president and the Senate the Vice President |
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Post by Rafwan on Nov 2, 2024 10:50:26 GMT
The only reason to quote someone/something is because you think it has something to offer (unless you state otherwise). You are simply giving a platform to (in this case) obnoxious views. Please, take responsibility for your actions. In condemning proposals that can assist the repair of the public realm in the way that he does, he shows hatred for it. I suggest that is a clear sequitur. Your later remarks about Ellen Wilkinson are based on tittle-tattle and are deeply unpleasant. She was a great woman who deserves much better. This is getting silly. I quoted it because it seemed interesting how left-wing her views were or are. Several people on here have suggested that those views seem perfectly reasonable. Fair enough. Apart from you no-one has chosen to attack me personally about it. As for my later remarks, by which I suppose you mean about her fraternisation with a known Soviet agent, I simply quoted statements by an author who has written a book about her and has done much deeper research than you or I have. As I said to someone else upthread, that doesn't mean she didn't do some good things, but she was a security risk. It seems an odd choice for the Chancellor to make. I won't be making any more posts in reply to you on this subject. I have no wish to attack you personally at all. But you are promulgating ideas that are highly repugnant, and in a way that suggests they are somehow ‘neutral’. This demands a robust response. And your continued insinuations about tittle-tattle and ‘security risks’ are just disgraceful. I honestly think you really have no idea. |
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Post by somerjohn on Nov 2, 2024 10:56:19 GMT
JiB: "We now have a clean slate for a true Agri Environment scheme in the UK"
Ah, so what you claimed as a huge success - a done deal - is actually a hypothetical future benefit that may or may not ever come to pass, and is in any case subject to the machinations of big business including the finance, food and agrochemical lobbies, the dead hand of the Treasury, political pressures and expediency. In other words, the usual UK mash-up.
One thing we do however know for sure is that we have lost the ability to influence changes to the CAP. Which will have come as a relief to continental bees finally freed from the neonics whose use we for so long defended.
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Post by jib on Nov 2, 2024 11:03:01 GMT
JiB: "We now have a clean slate for a true Agri Environment scheme in the UK"Ah, so what you claimed as a huge success - a done deal - is actually a hypothetical future benefit that may or may not ever come to pass, and is in any case subject to the machinations of big business including the finance, food and agrochemical lobbies, the dead hand of the Treasury, political pressures and expediency. In other words, the usual UK mash-up. One thing we do however know for sure is that we have lost the ability to influence changes to the CAP. Which will have come as a relief to continental bees finally freed from the neonics whose use we for so long defended. I'm not defining success through a Conservative Party prism, just stating that the current Government has a far better intention to address this. We tried for years to influence the CAP - and failed. As I say, a Brexit +++. Our future to define. |
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Post by mark61 on Nov 2, 2024 11:13:43 GMT
The Polls in America probably show the results of herding as pointed out on here and in a Guardian article today. Possibly the best indicator of the result will be difference in turnout between Men and Women, If more women vote than usual I think Trumps done and Harris wins, at least I hope so! My only caveat is whether America is ready to elect a female President.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 2, 2024 11:15:16 GMT
As preparation for returning in two year's time as the Tory saviour when the Badenoch culture wars regime inevitably implodes, an event in which he will not then be tainted. |
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Post by thylacine on Nov 2, 2024 11:20:08 GMT
So Badenoch wins leadership race. Xmas has come early for Labour I believe.
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Post by mark61 on Nov 2, 2024 11:21:16 GMT
Badenoch's victory not unexpected, The Conservative party may have a few more cycles to go through to re-establish itself as a contender for Government. Cleverly likely leader in 18 months I would think. Interesting to see If Badenoch can fill a Shadow Cabinet. Still not likely to be dull!
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 2, 2024 11:21:44 GMT
Badenoch wins as expected. Tory members can be reliably depended on to pick the looniest option available.
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
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Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 11:22:52 GMT
A lot of money has gone on Badenoch in the betting markets this morning, now 90% certain to win I do hope no bets were placed with insider information...again Badenoch wins shocker |
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neilj
Member
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Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 11:30:09 GMT
neilj Around 13-15% seems about right, but worth noting this is around double the percentage impacted Yes but they are a group that is a lot more wealthy than the average In addition a normal couple can only leave a million to their children tax free (including the family house) Farming couples can leave 2.65 m tax free and then only pay 20% tax instead of 40% Most people would love to have that problem Lastly lots of evidence that people buying up farms to avoid IHT have driven up land costs This measure may mean there is less of that and so land prices fall a little, or atleast not rise so fast allowing tenant farmers and others an opportunity to purchase land for farming |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
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Post by pjw1961 on Nov 2, 2024 11:30:26 GMT
So Badenoch wins leadership race. Xmas has come early for Labour I believe. I'm looking forward to turk explaining how Labour supporters should be trembling in their boots at the arrival of this modern political titan. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Nov 2, 2024 11:36:07 GMT
Kemi Badenoch, who has said that Robert Jenrick has a "whiff of impropriety" about him, now says he "has a key role to play in our party for many years to come"...
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Post by somerjohn on Nov 2, 2024 11:37:49 GMT
JiB: "the current Government has a far better intention to address this.'Jam tomorrow. Fine words butter no parsnips. Etc, etc. We'll see. But in the meantime, the retention of neonics is the one tangible result of our newfound 'freedom' to set agricultural policy that I can think of. Notable that my invitation to you to come up with other concrete examples produced only the usual brexiteer 'ah, we've taken back control' mantra. The proof of the pudding...
Interesting, too, to speculate on how safe the environment would be in the hands of, say, a Badenoch-led Tory-Reform coalition.
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