pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,577
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 5, 2024 20:00:45 GMT
"Keir Starmer entered Downing Street as Labour prime minister with a promise to use his historic election victory to rebuild Britain “brick by brick”" Good, I need a new shed  |
|
|
|
Post by graham on Jul 5, 2024 20:27:03 GMT
10 days ago Labour were hovering just above 40 in the polls. Two days ago they were about 38. Yesterday 33. So Polls showed trend but not outcome. Where did all the support go, leaving labour to make such an efficient conversion of votes into seats. The crucial defeat of Mordaunt contrasts with the fortuitous survival of the hard right: Braverman, Badenoch & Patel. As Mandleson said Mordaunt (never tested) would fight Reform, while the others, from whom the next leader is quite likely to be chosen, would try to become it I have yet to see the final figure but I beleve that on a GB basis Labour polled just under 35% yesterday - which is slightly below the 35.2% Neil Kinnock managed in 1992 and well below what the party received at the 1974 and 1979 elections under Wilson and Callaghan. |
|
|
|
Post by jimjam on Jul 5, 2024 20:37:23 GMT
SJ, the weakness of AV+ or AMS as voting systems imo is that you get 2 types of representatives (MPs for example).
Those with a constituency and those without which I think is unhealty.
STV or even using D'Hondt means all MPs would have the same constituency obligations.
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jul 5, 2024 20:42:45 GMT
10 days ago Labour were hovering just above 40 in the polls. Two days ago they were about 38. Yesterday 33. So Polls showed trend but not outcome. Where did all the support go, leaving labour to make such an efficient conversion of votes into seats. The crucial defeat of Mordaunt contrasts with the fortuitous survival of the hard right: Braverman, Badenoch & Patel. As Mandleson said Mordaunt (never tested) would fight Reform, while the others, from whom the next leader is quite likely to be chosen, would try to become it I have yet to see the final figure but I beleve that on a GB basis Labour polled just under 35% yesterday - which is slightly below the 35.2% Neil Kinnock managed in 1992 and well below what the party received at the 1974 and 1979 elections under Wilson and Callaghan. 33.7%. Am I allowed to tease you about your Bristol Central prediction? Just banter as generally I think you have a good solid basis for your predictions that keep with reality but there are some funny things going on these days that don't confirm to historical norms. |
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Jul 5, 2024 20:46:57 GMT
Come to that it is only "custom and practice" that the Prime Minister is an MP or member of the Lords. In theory the King could ask anyone to be PM if it was believed he or she could command a majority in parliament. The delights of having no written constitution. Crofty has promised 60s /70s folk music (and has a perfect attendance record) Come on King Charles do the decent thing! |
|
|
|
Post by Mark on Jul 5, 2024 20:48:11 GMT
As one example, some of the legal immigrants are students, but students are allowed to bring in dependents - why? Because we want them to come - and it is beneficial for the UK that they do so. In terms of numbers, very few foreign students coming here to do degrees will have dependants. The reason being that most of them will be 18. 18 year olds that are minded to do a degree - and especially those that go abroad to do so - tend not to have families of their own yet. Those that have and bring dependents will be those that have already done degree courses, then higher courses and then come over for things like science and medical research. In other words, those that are a bit older and in some cases now have families of their own. In other words, the sort of people that will be working on the next vaccine, or will likely work on improving battery technology for electric cars. To say "you can't bring dependents" is surely cutting off your nose to spite your face as many,as a result, will instead go to America, France or wherever instead. |
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jul 5, 2024 20:51:46 GMT
Worth noting the Labour cabinet has the first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first education secretary who was on free school meals. In the Cabinet 84% went to Comprehensives, 6% to State Grammar Schools. In previous Government's since 2010 60% went to private schools. Even in Atlee's Government 25% went to private schools Why is this important, because for the first time we have a Government which better reflects the country and the lived experience of it's people How does getting free school meals improve your ability as a government minister to find extra money for education, or anything else? My point is, I am not clear labour was ever short on motivation to help poor kids, its the resources which is the issue. No. It is the political will. And this is best rooted in experience. |
|
|
|
Post by lefthanging on Jul 5, 2024 20:52:46 GMT
Good I need a new shed David Cameron would have been the man to sort you out there. |
|
|
|
Post by robbiealive on Jul 5, 2024 20:56:13 GMT
10 days ago Labour were hovering just above 40 in the polls. Two days ago they were about 38. Yesterday 33. So Polls showed trend but not outcome. Where did all the support go, leaving labour to make such an efficient conversion of votes into seats. The crucial defeat of Mordaunt contrasts with the fortuitous survival of the hard right: Braverman, Badenoch & Patel. As Mandleson said Mordaunt (never tested) would fight Reform, while the others, from whom the next leader is quite likely to be chosen, would try to become it It's very sad but there is a very obvious reason why Badenoch, Cleverly , Braverman and Patel will never be able to bring back those reform defectors no matter how much they court them. Reform uk are racist, to pretend otherwise is liberal lunacy. Farage is not dog whistling he is simply telling you who he is .I suppose that leaves Jenrick ? Meant all 3 women are associated mainly with Reform-echoing policy: immigration, woke, oonvention on human rights. Badenoch acting as Czarina of all the toilets.Jenrick strikes one as Lieutenant not the boss. When I see him I wonder if he stores food in his hamster-like pouchy cheeks. Farage has received massive publicity but he will find it hard to manipulate the HOC esp as the Lib Dems are back with a powerful 2nd opposition block. Whenever I see him I wonder x Starmer may have luck with the economy. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on Jul 5, 2024 20:57:08 GMT
How does getting free school meals improve your ability as a government minister to find extra money for education, or anything else? My point is, I am not clear labour was ever short on motivation to help poor kids, its the resources which is the issue. No. It is the political will. And this is best rooted in experience. Precisely, it's the lived experience of it that makes them appreciate it's importance If you've spent your life in a bubble of privilege and money, it is much more difficult to appreciate the problems and needs of others who are struggling To identify and prioritise what needs doing to help people in such circumstances |
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jul 5, 2024 20:59:53 GMT
@rafwan - "Nobody here seems to have a clue why it all took so long (and, er, most don’t really seem to care)!" Probably because it's the wrong constituency. Hehe. (Oops) |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2024 21:00:46 GMT
neilj So is Starmer going to dole out life peerages so he can appoint whoever he wants? I understand the new Attorney-general is from outside too. It seems a dangerous precedent to me. At least Cameron had been elected at one time and had parliamentary experience. Just imagine what an uproar there'd be if Sunak had won and he started appointing his mates who'd never even stood for election. This isn't a Starmer innovation - all governments do this. The last one did anyway. One example is Jim O'Neil. Thanks. I didn't know that. It still doesn't seem right to me. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Jul 5, 2024 21:01:17 GMT
"SNP’s Drew Hendry concedes defeat in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire constituency election"
So looks live the final tally for the home team will be 72
|
|
|
|
Post by graham on Jul 5, 2024 21:07:27 GMT
I have yet to see the final figure but I beleve that on a GB basis Labour polled just under 35% yesterday - which is slightly below the 35.2% Neil Kinnock managed in 1992 and well below what the party received at the 1974 and 1979 elections under Wilson and Callaghan. 33.7%. Am I allowed to tease you about your Bristol Central prediction? Just banter as generally I think you have a good solid basis for your predictions that keep with reality but there are some funny things going on these days that don't confirm to historical norms. The UK figure is 33.7% - but GB will be 1% higher. I was totally wrong about Bristol Central. Hopefully my Scotland predictions at least partly make up for it!
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2024 21:07:37 GMT
As one example, some of the legal immigrants are students, but students are allowed to bring in dependents - why? Because we want them to come - and it is beneficial for the UK that they do so. In terms of numbers, very few foreign students coming here to do degrees will have dependants. The reason being that most of them will be 18. 18 year olds that are minded to do a degree - and especially those that go abroad to do so - tend not to have families of their own yet. Those that have and bring dependents will be those that have already done degree courses, then higher courses and then come over for things like science and medical research. In other words, those that are a bit older and in some cases now have families of their own. In other words, the sort of people that will be working on the next vaccine, or will likely work on improving battery technology for electric cars. To say "you can't bring dependents" is surely cutting off your nose to spite your face as many,as a result, will instead go to America, France or wherever instead. It would be interesting to see some analysis of the people coming in to see if your supposition is true. It seems just as likely that at least some of them are gaming the system. Whatever, to let in enough student dependents every year to fill a town the size of Ipswich is excessive. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 21:09:12 GMT
neilj So is Starmer going to dole out life peerages so he can appoint whoever he wants? I understand the new Attorney-general is from outside too. It seems a dangerous precedent to me. At least Cameron had been elected at one time and had parliamentary experience. Just imagine what an uproar there'd be if Sunak had won and he started appointing his mates who'd never even stood for election. This isn't a Starmer innovation - all governments do this. The last one did anyway. One example is Jim O'Neil. Don’t upset him with facts. |
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 5, 2024 21:29:52 GMT
Well the dust has started to settle and the hangovers may be beginning to recede. I hope that you will indulge me in a few last thoughts about the election in Bristol. As a city Bristol is an examplar of many things which have gone so wrong in the last fourteen years markw and I described some of the abject poverty, misery and alienation in the city. At the same time it is one of the most extrordinarily forward thinking and vibrant, exciting and innovative places in the country. The Green earthquake in the city has been long and slow in the building, from before the first bid by the city to become European Green capital in the early 2000's the city has prided itself on a radical Green approach, The LibDems pledged to make the City Carbon Neutral even earlier, the City Farm movement had it's national headquarters in the city from the 1990's. Various voluntary and third sector environmental and food equality organisations had organic (pun deliberate)grass root beginnings here. The Soil Association has been heafquartered here for decades, The City Council has a sustainability department, much depleted because of cuts to funding,but still there. In the present day Ambition Lawrence Weston, which I mentioned on a previous thread, continues this extraordinary energy and innovation today. What I am trying to explain in this rather long winded way is why I knew that The Green's would very likely take Bristol Central, why the Council election results were more than straws in the wind and why the other constituencies in the city may very well continue to become greener and greener. The move by Labour towards the right and reneging on the green new deal funding was the last straw, not just for me, but very many of my fellow citizens, activist or not. |
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jul 5, 2024 22:16:04 GMT
one reason for low Labour % is the low turnout, and that relates to the "foregone conclusion" narrative sold by Tories in last week of election. Why bother voting Labour when they are going to win in your area by a street?
|
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jul 5, 2024 22:18:30 GMT
Whatever, to let in enough student dependents every year to fill a town the size of Ipswich is excessive. In your opinion. But as we see daily, nearly all your opinions are rotting garbage. |
|
|
|
Post by catfuzz on Jul 5, 2024 22:20:25 GMT
A wild and crazy theory about a possible future challenge for Labour vs Reform, and the Tories if they keep travelling in a right ward direction (if you would indulge me):
A possible line of attack from Reform while in government would be to keep stoking the culture war in parliament. ‘They only have 4 seats, and the country is over this’ I hear you say.
The thing is Labour are offering a return to government as public service. Probably what the country needs, but it will certainly be boring. And who suffers from boring politics?
Maybe news outlets with a flagging viewership?
My worry with Reform is that regardless of this election result, they have an awful lot of traction in news media, and after their significant losses, the Tories know that Farage still has a parasitic influence on the party and can utilise them to whip up more of a storm around cultural hot button issues, regardless of the issues overall probity in our everyday lives.
So with a bored media who will see Farage as a lightning rod for viewer traffic, an ascendant Reform and the shelled out husk of an opposition who don’t show signs of halting their lurch to the right - culture wars aren’t going anywhere. How Labour respond to that and how well they can challenge the information space, whilst maintaining a dignified, upstanding sense of civic duty will be a challenge for them.
|
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jul 5, 2024 22:22:38 GMT
Well the dust has started to settle and the hangovers may be beginning to recede. I hope that you will indulge me in a few last thoughts about the election in Bristol. As a city Bristol is an examplar of many things which have gone so wrong in the last fourteen years markw and I described some of the abject poverty, misery and alienation in the city. At the same time it is one of the most extrordinarily forward thinking and vibrant, exciting and innovative places in the country. The Green earthquake in the city has been long and slow in the building, from before the first bid by the city to become European Green capital in the early 2000's the city has prided itself on a radical Green approach, The LibDems pledged to make the City Carbon Neutral even earlier, the City Farm movement had it's national headquarters in the city from the 1990's. Various voluntary and third sector environmental and food equality organisations had organic (pun deliberate)grass root beginnings here. The Soil Association has been heafquartered here for decades, The City Council has a sustainability department, much depleted because of cuts to funding,but still there. In the present day Ambition Lawrence Weston, which I mentioned on a previous thread, continues this extraordinary energy and innovation today. What I am trying to explain in this rather long winded way is why I knew that The Green's would very likely take Bristol Central, why the Council election results were more than straws in the wind and why the other constituencies in the city may very well continue to become greener and greener. The move by Labour towards the right and reneging on the green new deal funding was the last straw, not just for me, but very many of my fellow citizens, activist or not. I thought Brighton was interesting as well. Given they had roundly rejected the Green council, possibly with good reason although I'm not entirely sure what the issues were, I was less certain that they wouldn't also reject a Green MP, especially a new one to the area. I did wonder, now I think the Greens control the council, how that would play out in 5 years if Greens do badly running it, but perhaps your story makes the city more likely to keep returning Green MPs and expanding their base whatever happens with the council. Brighton is a good lesson to learn in competency as well as bread and butter issues so hopefully Green councillors will take on board that, while doing plenty of environmental stuff, they need to make sure the bins get emptied on time as well. |
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jul 5, 2024 22:35:33 GMT
A wild and crazy theory about a possible future challenge for Labour vs Reform, and the Tories if they keep travelling in a right ward direction (if you would indulge me): A possible line of attack from Reform while in government would be to keep stoking the culture war in parliament. ‘They only have 4 seats, and the country is over this’ I hear you say. The thing is Labour are offering a return to government as public service. Probably what the country needs, but it will certainly be boring. And who suffers from boring politics? Maybe news outlets with a flagging viewership? My worry with Reform is that regardless of this election result, they have an awful lot of traction in news media, and after their significant losses, the Tories know that Farage still has a parasitic influence on the party and can utilise them to whip up more of a storm around cultural hot button issues, regardless of the issues overall probity in our everyday lives. So with a bored media who will see Farage as a lightning rod for viewer traffic, an ascendant Reform and the shelled out husk of an opposition who don’t show signs of halting their lurch to the right - culture wars aren’t going anywhere. How Labour respond to that and how well they can challenge the information space, whilst maintaining a dignified, upstanding sense of civic duty will be a challenge for them. Yeah an example is the niche issue of trans v women rights. Whipped up out of all proportion into "whose side are you on?". Apart from being objectionable, it's as I say, very niche. I am honestly puzzled about why people like Rowling seem to now think about nothing else but excluding trans women from women's spaces. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 5, 2024 22:51:22 GMT
Whatever, to let in enough student dependents every year to fill a town the size of Ipswich is excessive. In your opinion. But as we see daily, nearly all your opinions are rotting garbage. So how many million a year do you think is sustainable? Bearing in mind the housing shortage, sewage infrastructure overloaded, schools overcrowded etc etc? |
|
|
|
Post by guymonde on Jul 6, 2024 0:22:18 GMT
No. It is the political will. And this is best rooted in experience. Precisely, it's the lived experience of it that makes them appreciate it's importance If you've spent your life in a bubble of privilege and money, it is much more difficult to appreciate the problems and needs of others who are struggling To identify and prioritise what needs doing to help people in such circumstances True, but having been privileged through childhood and most of my working life I have spent the last decade as a councillor in a quite deprived area. Of course, that doesn't equate to directly lived experience but being a councillor is a great training (though too many don't think they have anything to learn). Holding down a senior job before politics also helps, and Starmer's experience running a big service is something I find very reassuring. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Jul 6, 2024 4:11:23 GMT
"So with a bored media who will see Farage as a lightning rod for viewer traffic, an ascendant Reform and the shelled out husk of an opposition who don’t show signs of halting their lurch to the right "
I would gently point out that the lib dems will end up with 72 seats by bucking the rightward trend and moving to the left instead.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,649
|
Post by steve on Jul 6, 2024 4:16:05 GMT
2024 election. What the electorate voted v what we got.  |
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jul 6, 2024 6:13:05 GMT
So how many million a year do you think is sustainable? Bearing in mind the housing shortage, sewage infrastructure overloaded, schools overcrowded etc etc? Well I think about half a million die each year in UK of old age and more than 100,000 reach pension age so until we get past the massive bulge of boomers claiming pensions we need working age people to come into country pay tax and do things like build houses. It's probably immoral taking all those working people away from developing nations who need them too so it's not a great solution. Too late to use the massive bonus of North Sea oil to get past the problem - that money has already been given to the rich in lower taxes. So we are in trouble - but we are good at attracting young people to come here. If Farage got his net zero immigration wish we'd be well and truly fucked. |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jul 6, 2024 6:33:40 GMT
I thought Brighton was interesting as well. Given they had roundly rejected the Green council, possibly with good reason although I'm not entirely sure what the issues were, I was less certain that they wouldn't also reject a Green MP, especially a new one to the area. I did wonder, now I think the Greens control the council, how that would play out in 5 years if Greens do badly running it, but perhaps your story makes the city more likely to keep returning Green MPs and expanding their base whatever happens with the council. Brighton is a good lesson to learn in competency as well as bread and butter issues so hopefully Green councillors will take on board that, while doing plenty of environmental stuff, they need to make sure the bins get emptied on time as well. My daughter lives in Brighton Pavilion and she reckons it was only to flaunt their difference from the rest of the country that they went Green to begin with. Now the novelty has worn off they'll go back to Labour next time. |
|
Dave
Member
... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
|
Post by Dave on Jul 6, 2024 7:07:28 GMT
"Can anyone explain why the east of England is such fertile ground for RefUK" It's flat the refukers can see the suckers from a distance. That and an older, less educated, white ,low migrant , population profile. And that’s it? No other factors? Nothing about how many people in these places feel left behind? Nothing about how many of them haven’t felt listened to by governments for decades now? Nothing about how they and their children lack the opportunities that geographically more connected places have? No, all that is trumped by things such as their lack of a degree. Righto. Your party doesn’t even want to know about the working classes does it? That’s fine. As you can see, across the electoral map, not just the east coast, the working classes don’t want to know about a middle-class party for middle class people, and one that disdainfully looks down on them. |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,393
|
Post by neilj on Jul 6, 2024 7:09:01 GMT
James O'brien nails it
'Boris Johnson put his own brother & the son of a sanctioned KGB spy in the House of Lords. On his *first day in the job* PM Sir Keir Starmer has promoted a former chief scientific advisor & a businessman whose work rehabilitating former prisoners has improved countless lives….'
He could have added Charlotte Owen, a 30 year old whose primary qualification seemed to be working as an intern for Johnson for 6 months
|
|
