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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 6, 2024 7:09:49 GMT
When there are moments in my life of exhilaration, joy and laughter, and sometimes sadness and stress too, I often take either delight or solace in Van Morrison's music to confirm or ease my mood. So it was as I drove back from Redditch early in the evening of last Thursday. On my car stereo I played "Days like This", one of my favourite Van songs. They played it to a large crowd in Van's birthplace, Belfast, just before Bill Clinton addressed them, shortly after the Good Friday Agreement had been signed and peace was dropping slow from the veils of the morning to where the people lived in streets, villages and towns Northern Ireland. I've been walking on air really, ever since the scale of Labour's landslide win became clear yesterday morning and the news broke of Chris Bloore's narrow win in Redditch. He's a very good man, and the campaign team extraordinarily decent people too. Labour, at its best, is the Nice Party. I experienced that first hand in the many days I campaigned in Redditch and the Villages. I was proud to be part of a winning team. They deserved their long overdue reward and elation. As Van says, days like Thursday and Friday don't come along very often, if at all, in one's life. Treasure them when they do. When the future looks good again. My mama used to say there would be days like this though. When no one could step on my dreams. youtu.be/3UUWkr4FUlo?si=_6Yjgn4myEZD7KLX |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jul 6, 2024 7:11:40 GMT
So Labour got elected with 33.7% of the vote (2 seats to declare but not likely to go Labour) and received 412 seats on a turnout of 60%, so essentially 1 in 5 (might be even lower)of the eligible voters voted for them. There is no enthusiasm for Labour as the vast majority don't support them and didn't vote for them. Suck it up. |
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Post by moby on Jul 6, 2024 7:20:31 GMT
Those Reform numbers are what stands out. Ominous for the future if things go wrong. |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
Posts: 818
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Post by Dave on Jul 6, 2024 7:22:35 GMT
Its crazy stuff In Hunt they have a dull but worthy guy who would bring back a lot of those who didn't vote, but no....Onwards and Downwards! I disagree about Hunt- he was supposed to be the moderate Tory but then produced a political budget that left us with a financial black hole with unfunded tax cuts just to give them a chance of winning an election and if not then to stitch up Labour when they came to power. All at a time when public services were in a dreadful state. I was really disappointed he didn't lose his seat. Yep, that Hunt is classed as a moderate within the Tories simply shows just how far his party have travelled. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 7:27:16 GMT
An astute appointment 'Sir Patrick Vallance KCB has been appointed Minister of State (Minister for Science) in the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology' Is he an MP? Well duh, theres no reason any of the government need to be MPs! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 6, 2024 7:28:51 GMT
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 7:30:19 GMT
How does getting free school meals improve your ability as a government minister to find extra money for education, or anything else? My point is, I am not clear labour was ever short on motivation to help poor kids, its the resources which is the issue. Danny, your lived experience clearly informs your views not least in terms of Education and other matters on which you post, do you not think it's the same for Politicians? of course. I guess thats why plenty of influential people from rich aristocratic backgrounds have become keen social reformers after seeing how their own upbringing contrasted markedly with others not so fortunate. And with the benefit of their own upbringing and social contacts,they were actually in a position to do something about it. |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on Jul 6, 2024 7:33:14 GMT
No, Labour was/is/should be the party that has the interests of the 'working class' (no qualifier) foremost in mind. Quite right. I stand corrected. I suppose I was subconsciously thinking back to the days when the WWC more or less was the working class. The fact remains that many white working class people feel marginalised and overlooked by politicians. Mercian’s last sentence can’t be denied imho. I suspect Starmer and his team not only know that but want to do something about it. It’s going to be tough because the like ls of Farage are always going to be telling the WWC “look what Labour are giving to that black/ brown/ etc person”. But IF Labour governs as I think they intend to, then all of those who most desperately need help and hope should get some. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 6, 2024 7:37:41 GMT
Quite right. I stand corrected. I suppose I was subconsciously thinking back to the days when the WWC more or less was the working class. The fact remains that many white working class people feel marginalised and overlooked by politicians. Mercian’s last sentence can’t be denied imho. I suspect Starmer and his team not only know that but want to do something about it. It’s going to be tough because the like ls of Farage are always going to be telling the WWC “look what Labour are giving to that black/ brown/ etc person”. But IF Labour governs as I think they intend to, then all of those who most desperately need help and hope should get some. I agree with that. The long term and long haul answer to Farage is to govern both him and his lousy ideas out of existence. To eliminate the social and political alienation, and economic deprivation, where politicians like him, and his ideas, germinate and thrive. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 6, 2024 7:37:58 GMT
"He could have added Charlotte Owen, a 30 year old whose primary qualification seemed to be working as an intern for Johnson for 6 months" And quite possibly his daughter  |
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Post by alec on Jul 6, 2024 7:39:06 GMT
Wes Streeting saying that the DoH needs to accept "that the NHS is broken" is right. It's a disaster in so many ways. The public and press have sat back and watched as passive spectators as the Conservatives have allowed the NHS to fail on multiple fronts, and while there has been some complaint, by and large it's been met with resignation, rather than the absolute outrage the situation demands. Why are we, as a nation, so meekly accepting that getting access to a dentist for millions is not possible, or that every single A7E target has been missed for years? Labour need to move quickly to embed this idea that everything is broken, just as Tories did in 2010. Labour needs to craft a foundational story, fixing in the minds of voters exactly where we are now - broken - which then sets the scene for any hopeful recover, which will (of course) be painted as Labour success. The narrative is the vital first step. From here, they really need to make things better, and that's where it gets more tricky. Delivery, especially in health, is fiendishly complex, and there are major tides running against healthcare delivery. One of the biggest remains covid. The tweet below is a graphic and stunning depiction of the problem. It's from a regular Spanish time series survey, well established to be representative of the general population. It finds that since the pandemic, the number of people needing hospital treatment or suffering from a chronic health condition has leapt. Hospitalisations up by 5.9 standard deviations, chronic conditions up by 9.8 standard deviations, all age groups affected. These are staggering, stunning numbers detailing the increased pressure on the Spanish healthcare system, and we can absolutely guarantee it will be exactly the same here, because we've all accepted constant infection with a serious pathogen known to have far more long term consequences than acute phase impacts. Streeting and his advisers need to study these data and then start the simplest part of fixing the NHS; curtailing the transmission of covid. We have all the tools necessary, it would be extremely cost effective, it would also nail flu and other illnesses, and none of this is rocket science.
Link here -
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 6, 2024 7:41:51 GMT
mercianBy convention ministers have to be members of parliament ,commons or lords, this has been ignored before. Vallance will probably be made a Baron
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 7:48:43 GMT
neilj So is Starmer going to dole out life peerages so he can appoint whoever he wants? I understand the new Attorney-general is from outside too. It seems a dangerous precedent to me. At least Cameron had been elected at one time and had parliamentary experience. Its not a precedent, because the precedent always existed. Historically the whole government would have been lords and allowing MPs to become ministers was the new innovation. Although Kings did from time to time choose outsiders, consider Henry VIII with cardinal Wolsey and then a string of lawyers as Chancellor (ie equivalent of prime minister now). He preferred grammar school boys because he didnt trust lords, who were in some degree potential challengers to take the crown, but certainly vying for power and wealth in conflict with the king. Ok, its true that in more recent times it has been unusual for lords to become ministers, but that probably has more to do with wanting to give all the jobs to the people who are your mates and just got elected with you. Lets not forget the extra salary. In the USA the president picks who he wants to be ministers. They have to be acceptable to congress but thats pretty broad. Theres no real reasons why the administrators should be the same people as the legislators. Makes perfect sense to bring in expert outsiders who are politically onside with your aims. Also perhaps consider the whole issue of SPADS who have grown and grown in recent years. Not so very different to call your trusted advisors SPAD as minister.
And then...in recent times there have been calls for MPs not to be allowed outside jobs, perhaps because its nowadays supposed to be a full time job working as a constituency MP. But if thats true, how does it make sense for an MP to also work full time as a minister running a government department? Thats doing two jobs again, so maybe MPs should not be permitted to be ministers? Draw them exclusively from the lords. Thats an interesting idea for parliamentary reform, keep the commons as the main lawmaking chamber with the final say and also resposibility to manage their constituents problems. But require all ministers to come from (an elected) lords.
We have rather forgotten that elements of the legislature ought to have purposes rather than the ramshackle historical development which took place. The US constitution looked at the UK legislature as a model and considering the prevailing views atb that time, tried to create distinct elements which each represented something different but meaningful. Three differently elected legislatures which all must agree to pass laws. A supreme court which created inertia to sudden change and acted as ringmaster somewhat above the needs to be regularly elected. Their supreme court has some of the aspects of our house of lords (especially since at the time the house of lords was also the UK supreme court). |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 6, 2024 7:56:14 GMT
Its crazy stuff In Hunt they have a dull but worthy guy who would bring back a lot of those who didn't vote, but no....Onwards and Downwards! I disagree about Hunt- he was supposed to be the moderate Tory but then produced a political budget that left us with a financial black hole with unfunded tax cuts just to give them a chance of winning an election and if not then to stitch up Labour when they came to power. All at a time when public services were in a dreadful state. I was really disappointed he didn't lose his seat. I was disappointed they all didn't lose their seats. I still think he is a moderate compared to Badenoch , Braverman or Truss (or Farage). That desperate throw of the dice in the budget was indeed reprehensible but he would still be a better bet for them if they want to claim to be more to the centre IMHO |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 6, 2024 7:56:19 GMT
Given Ed's love of the water one of his 72 colleagues can give him a few tips about not falling in New MP Roz Savage is the only woman to have rowed solo across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The 58-year-old holds four Guinness World Records for her sporting triumphs  |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 7:59:11 GMT
So are there any limits on this? Could a non-parliamentarian be Chancellor of the Exchequer for example? Come to that it is only "custom and practice" that the Prime Minister is an MP or member of the Lords. In theory the King could ask anyone to be PM if it was believed he or she could command a majority in parliament. The delights of having no written constitution. Farage is now an MP, but you could imagine him commanding a parliamentary majority despite not being in it. In practice that what he did over brexit. |
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Post by pete on Jul 6, 2024 7:59:38 GMT
It's too late to drop out and it seems to be his wife and son who want him to stay in. They need to be told, that if Biden stays in he'll lose, and when Trump wins he's coming after them and the Supreme Court will back Trump all the way. They needed someone younger a year ago and have run out of road. If you're not a bat sh*t crazy Trump fan it's time to be scared as America will be leaving NATO and Ukraine is soon going to lose its war with Putin. Certain British politicians need investigating and their alleged traitorous Russian links looked into. |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 6, 2024 8:10:54 GMT
Given Ed's love of the water one of his 72 colleagues can give him a few tips about not falling in New MP Roz Savage is the only woman to have rowed solo across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The 58-year-old holds four Guinness World Records for her sporting triumphs View AttachmentAnother reason to be cheerful, steve. I would think that this will be most radically different Parliament in terms of new intake since 1997. A real changing of the guard in terms of personnel. I'm looking forward to seeing a lot of them and what they have to bring to our public discourse and national life. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 8:16:36 GMT
Starmer may have luck with the economy. If he does it will be because of Biden and congress' massive stimulus package to the US economy. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 8:25:39 GMT
The move by Labour towards the right and reneging on the green new deal funding was the last straw, not just for me, but very many of my fellow citizens, activist or not. I think thats a bit unfair: labour had a strategy of sticking to the conservative budget. The conservative's slashed green and renewables spending, so if you were going to mirror their budget you couldnt commit to new funding on anything, including that. Having said that, I dont see how lab can satisfy voters in 5 years time simply by sticking to former conservative plans. We rather have to allow them the chance to do something which they have yet to explain. If they really stick to no bombshell announcements, then the only wriggle room I see is the emphasis within government on how services are delivered. Con concentrated on slashing costs, whereas if you change this to trying to deliver good services then its possible services can improve. Quality services wasnt really a conservative goal, they would much rather everyone was so annoyed they went private for everything. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 8:29:04 GMT
A possible line of attack from Reform while in government would be to keep stoking the culture war in parliament. ‘They only have 4 seats, and the country is over this’ I hear you say. I think 4 seats is a truly remarkable achievement given our system of voting. previously con adopted reform policies when they had zero MPs, never mind 4 with a goal to turn this into 40 if not 400 next time round. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 8:37:54 GMT
I thought Brighton was interesting as well. Given they had roundly rejected the Green council, possibly with good reason although I'm not entirely sure what the issues were, I was less certain that they wouldn't also reject a Green MP, especially a new one to the area. I think we exaggerate how many people are truly committed to one party. i think it more correct to say we are a nation of tactical voters stuck with FPP election which give us a choice of two parties, where it is very very difficult for a new party to break into the top two positions. If you apply this to somewhere an unusual party has made it to the top two, then the system supports their staying there. I can very well see why people would vote for a green or indeed a liberal or independant in preference to both lab or con. the obvious counter argument is what happened to the libs once they got withing reaching distance of power in 2010. They blew it by merging themselves blindly supporting conservatives. And so of course their voters abandoned them, because they were no longer an alternative. It may indeed be true as the libs claimed that they mitigated conservative policies. But that was not visible to their supporters, and it is also true they enabled conservative policies. I think the real rason they did so was they feared a quick new election where they believed they would not do so well. Maybe true, but in the long run integrity to their voters was more important for the party than a few year as ministers. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 8:45:35 GMT
In your opinion. But as we see daily, nearly all your opinions are rotting garbage. So how many million a year do you think is sustainable? Bearing in mind the housing shortage, sewage infrastructure overloaded, schools overcrowded etc etc? We are short 6.5 million homes, plus presumably all the necessary reservoirs, sewers, schools, roads, power grid and everything else. Though this would also presumably generate revenue from council tax, (6.5 million x £1000= 6.5 billion a year), plus properly run government housebuilding programs have always been revenue neutral or eventually shown a profit from rents charged. Proper greenfield site new town schemes should be able to buy land very cheaply. Or likewise, pick a town and have a scheme to double it with an add on adjacent. The shortfall is 65 new towns of 100,000 population, ie something like the combined Bexhill and Hastings urban area. We also need a clear decision whether we intend to continue the model of commuting into big cities. (which is obviously not very environmentally friendly. Im not convinced London hasnt simply become too big for maximum efficiency. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 6, 2024 8:47:18 GMT
It will be interesting to see how the 5 Reform MPs fare over the next 5 years
Can anyone see Farage or Tice spending their time (when not in Parliament) in Clacton and Skegness doing the work of a constituency MP
Will Farage spend a couple of months skiving off to help in the Trump campaign
Will one or more of the Reform MPs falls foul of Parliamentary standards
The disclosure of members interests will be interesting on it's own
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 8:48:09 GMT
Your point is that the only political party to have any power to change this outcome is also the only one to have benefitted from it? |
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Post by wb61 on Jul 6, 2024 9:03:22 GMT
Having come down from the euphoria of yesterday, I thought I ought to say something. Watching Kier Starmer's speech outside number 10 yesterday and being, surprisingly, moved to tears in front of my wife saying to her I hope that there will be a real difference after these 14 years of misery and incompetence. I should say this was not because of the speech but because of my sense of relief.
On a more polling point, I wonder if the things complained about here as to Labour centralised control, were based on private polling which more closely matched the final results?
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Post by alec on Jul 6, 2024 9:19:11 GMT
wb61 - "On a more polling point, I wonder if the things complained about here as to Labour centralised control, were based on private polling which more closely matched the final results?" I was wondering about that, and have pondered on the point since Thursday. I actually suspect that the Hidden Hand of Genius was probably not quite so much in play, however. Yes, Labour will have made some tactical decisions that worked out well, but we've seen a lot of elections come and go where the parties genuinely don't seem to pick major trends and get caught out, on the upside and downside. I remember Conservatives were as surprised in 1992 as Labour was disappointed, for example. On wider issues: interesting to read the posts and reactions on here. A couple of days ago I posted my views that the oft stated view on the left that Labour had to deliver or usher in the far right were misplaced, with 2 terms guaranteed and Tories likely to tack to the centre over time. I now think this view to be wrong, and the fear on the left probably more accurate reflection of reality. It's as if Labour have built a magnificent house, but have yet to pay the merchants for the bricks. Despite the facade of a massive majority, everything is decidedly shaky. That 33.7% vote share is alarmingly poor, given 14 years of terrible Conservative government. Labour, as well as Conservative, is under substantial pressure from both flanks.
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Post by shevii on Jul 6, 2024 9:19:35 GMT
It will be interesting to see how the 5 Reform MPs fare over the next 5 years Can anyone see Farage or Tice spending their time (when not in Parliament) in Clacton and Skegness doing the work of a constituency MP Will Farage spend a couple of months skiving off to help in the Trump campaign Will one or more of the Reform MPs falls foul of Parliamentary standards The disclosure of members interests will be interesting on it's own The one issue I have with a scenario of Reform being "found out" is that Trump being "found out" on multiple issues hasn't made any difference to his standing over there and while we have different political systems that makes American president even more of a two horse race than we have here I'm not entirely convinced that we are so different to Americans. It should be obvious to anyone in the Red Wall that Reform isn't the answer but low political attention, the need for change and some populism really does seem to work and there seems no awareness that on the NHS for example Reform are likely to be effectively privatising it and there will be no level of care for people in deprived areas. |
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Post by somerjohn on Jul 6, 2024 9:21:34 GMT
Danny: "We are short 6.5 million homes... The shortfall is 650 new towns of 100,000 population"
It's pretty telling that those alarmed by immigration are prone to such gross errors of arithmetic.
And anyway, who says we're short of 6.5 million homes? That's enough for around 15m people.
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 6, 2024 9:24:00 GMT
So how many million a year do you think is sustainable? Bearing in mind the housing shortage, sewage infrastructure overloaded, schools overcrowded etc etc? Well I think about half a million die each year in UK of old age and more than 100,000 reach pension age so until we get past the massive bulge of boomers claiming pensions we need working age people to come into country pay tax and do things like build houses. It's probably immoral taking all those working people away from developing nations who need them too so it's not a great solution. Too late to use the massive bonus of North Sea oil to get past the problem - that money has already been given to the rich in lower taxes. So we are in trouble - but we are good at attracting young people to come here. If Farage got his net zero immigration wish we'd be well and truly fucked. You are not seeing the problem. A majority of people in the UK plus both main political parties support continued immigration. Libs too and sundry others. However our system of voting is designed so that one party wins absolute power and only needs the support of 20% of the population to do so. There are way more people in the UK who believe immigration should be stopped than this. If the two main parties continue to support unrestricted immigration, then in 5 years time Farage will again campaign on this issue and he will win a lot more seats. If events go his way he could win outright. Circumstances favourable to this might include conservative party still at war with itself (seems pretty likely) and labour not doing very well at improving anything (also seems likely given poor economic outlook). Vote concentration in certain areas would help him, and yep it seems people with his outlook are concentrated geographically. Think the brexit vote pattern, because it is significantly the same issue. If labour continue unrestricted immigration, then there is a good chance of a Farage win in 5 years. This isnt unique to the Uk, its happeneing all over the developed world. Its evidently human nature not to like to be swamped by outsiders, and we have discussed how current levels of immigration will result in more immigrant descended people in the Uk in a genertion or two than 'natives'. Sure, this is all very subjective, but thats rather the point of democracy, everyone is entitled to their own outlook. If you care to look at the US, they have a fraction the population density we do, much easier planning laws so no housing shortage and yet they are just as divided, demanding to restrict immigration.
Either labour have to end immigration, or they have to persuade those opposed to it to change their minds. This isnt a decisive issue in swinging my vote, but even so I see why the UK cannot persist in the immigration policy it has now, which is to let in essentially unlimited numbers of people without spending the necessary government money to provide them with living resources, housing etc etc. Extar manpower is NOT the only way to geberate extra wealth, the alternative is increased productivity. On that score the Uk is doing abysmally. And partly it is chicken and egg. So long as government ensures a constant supply of new manpower, no company will bother investing in technological ways to get 2 mens work from one. Solutions will never happen untill you cut off the immigration. These will of course include wage rises.
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