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Post by robbiealive on Jul 3, 2024 9:25:49 GMT
Well I am actually getting excited now at the thought of these Tory shits getting rinsed. I was actually worried about some trump level chicanery after the poroguing charade but it looks like we are going to make it without another dose, phew. Things are so rubbish where I live. People living in tents and rows of shonky caravans, sleeping in doorways, drug injecting in skateparks by Dickensian figures with hopelessness etched deep on thin faces. Shoplifting and aggression is faced daily by my partner who works in Aldi, no one calls the police cos they never come. Last year an elderly woman fell in the shop and couldn't stand up again and the Amby took three hours to arrive, FFS. Fly tipping is out of control with no action by council or police, graffiti is sprayed up by twats who may take all day to finish and again no popo action. I thank fate my house is paid for fully as rents are mental, 600 quid for one room in a terraced himo with four bedrooms converted from a two bed same as mine. A family of four are living in one room a few houses down from me. I have never known such terrible times with even life expectancy dropping. Over to you labour, things have to get better or the siren calls of the shits on the far right will gain traction fast and then we really will be fucked. I'm not sure this site is ready for too much reality. Sounds like Jaywick or the equivalent. Keep them coming. Your last sentence packed a real punch. |
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Post by graham on Jul 3, 2024 9:38:01 GMT
But such hypothetical polls do not have a good track record. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 9:52:27 GMT
domjg“ At the end of his second term Biden, if he won, would be 85. No-one should still be working in a demanding job, let alone in a senior leadership role at that age.” Their utterly mad Supreme Court system where judges are there for life is even worse. Their whole system is totally flawed.
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Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 9:53:50 GMT
I'm not sure this site is ready for too much reality. Sounds like Jaywick or the equivalent. Keep them coming. Your last sentence packed a real punch. I do wish you'd stop talking about the Clacton Constituency.  |
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Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 9:58:33 GMT
After some extensive research through the archives, I can reveal that in 1983, neither the Tory Party, nor their leading newspaper supporters (Mail, Express, Sun, Telegraph) warned about a super majority in spite of the fact that they won a 188 seat majority over Labour. In fact, they seemed rather pleased about it. Strange, eh?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 10:01:58 GMT
Bloody hell - page 6 already. I'd only just found the new thread! You'd think there's an election going on or something... I sadly won't be able to keep up but I'll try  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 10:05:44 GMT
If Labour win their expected huge majority, but poll not less than 40% of the voting electorate and less than Tories/Reform combined ** then it highlights in BIG neon letters that our own system is as flawed as America’s.
(** I combine those two because essentially they seem to be two sides of the same coin which is probably less true of the LOC parties.)
To me, what it shows is that there is still the potential for a united ROC party to likewise win a landslide win next time - unless our electoral system is changed or Labour do a demonstrably great job.
I am confident that this is what they are aiming to do but they will be working in really difficult world conditions as well as having to deal with detritus of fourteen years of appalling mis-governance by three Tory administrations with five Prime Ministers, each causing long term damage to the social fabric of this country in their own, selfish and/or misguided ways.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 3, 2024 10:11:02 GMT
markw et al, it is a description of dystopian reality which I recognise. Even in leafy, gentrified quarters of wealthy Bristol, vans of various sorts line the roads across the Clifton Downs, people sleep in tents in Blaise Estate and many other large open spaces, as well as doorways and really dangerously along the banks of the tidal river Avon. Crimes against the person have begun to rise again and desperate people and others exploiting them shoplift with menaces from stores large and small.Foodbanks have proliferated, and even with them, children go to school hungry in ill fitting clothes to learn in establishments little warmer than their freezing homes, which have leaking roofs and crumbling walls. The Tories have presided over a period of emissiration for the many and enrichment for the very few. It has been a period of private wealth and public squallor. The end of it can't come soon enough, but a Labour victory is not sufficient to ensure that, we have to rewrite our national discourse and be genuinely brave in the steps we take. I await the new beginning with both hope and trepidation, because as you say if it fails or stalls we face the horrors of a stronger and more cynical Faragist movement.
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Post by robbiealive on Jul 3, 2024 10:18:22 GMT
I'm not sure this site is ready for too much reality. Sounds like Jaywick or the equivalent. Keep them coming. Your last sentence packed a real punch. I do wish you'd stop talking about the Clacton Constituency. my brother and I (10?) once spent a week in a wooden shack in Jaywick rented by London "aunt". My mother disapproved of her as inter alia she fenced stolen clothing. But she & her Irish husband been kind to my father when he was an economic migrant in the '30s. It was a fantastic holiday. I have more to say on Jaywick but it will come in a later post today |
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jul 3, 2024 10:21:02 GMT
This could turn out to be quite expensive for the water companies. ...
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markw
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Post by markw on Jul 3, 2024 10:24:28 GMT
Domjg,
I live in Eastville in Bristol.
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 3, 2024 10:29:17 GMT
Got to say this, but I disagree with the calls about Sunak's attacks on Starmer's Friday nights being antisemitic. I think this is a case of shoe horning antisemitism into politics, something that to be honest, we see far too much. Not only is it wrong, but it doesn't do anything for Jews and the genuine prejudice and sometime violence that they suffer from. Starmer made his Friday work reference, initially I think (?) without reference to religious rituals. Sunak, who I don't believe to be remotely antisemitic, grabbed at this to try and score a point, whence the religious elements were revealed. Even if I've got this wrong, and Sunak was well aware of why Starmer does this when he made his comments, are we really saying that the Tories, who made years of allegations of antisemitism against Labour, are now doing likewise? As with Corbyn's comments on a poster that was meant to look a bit Jewish, we need to accept that sometimes people make ill judged statements that in retrospect can be linked in some way to other, much more serious, prejudices. In preparation for the 2005 GE, Labour piloted posters showing the faces of Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin, prominent Tory Jews, superimposed on pigs (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2005/jan/28/advertising.politics?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other). It was a ghastly error, quickly corrected and overlooked. |
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Post by ping on Jul 3, 2024 10:29:24 GMT
Sorry if this has already been asked, but are we expecting any more MRPs by the end of today or was Survation's the final one?
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Post by alec on Jul 3, 2024 10:30:31 GMT
I suspect these latest polls will ease any lingering Labour nerves. The appearance of some polls putting them well below 40% and a suggestion of a reverse flow back to Cons from Reform did create a sense a week or so back that some significant tightening could have been on the cards, but the truth was that there was no fundamental reason for any substantial tilt in the Lab/Con balance, and we now appear to heading to polling day with a hefty lead largely intact.
Also interested in the commonly stated view that the far right is at risk of sweeping in if Labour fail to deliver. This appears to have become conventional wisdom on the harder left, but I'd question this. It could happen; we may be on an ever upward tide of far right sentiment, and any failure by the more centrist parties may lead to the FPTP system being swamped by an extreme right group. But is this really likely?
I'd suggest a more likely scenario, should Labour fail, is that the Conservatives reassert their ideological flexibility and move towards the centre ground. This won't necessarily happen quickly, nor will it be easy. As Rafael Behr pointed out in the Guardian a while ago, talk of 'civil war' in the Tory party was misplaced - there was no war, and the centrists surrendered at every point. But I think the common view on the left, of the extreme right waiting to exploit Labour weaknesses, relies on a rapidity of a shift in public opinion. History suggests that British electorates are not overly prone to switching horses, and once they've handed a hefty majority to a new government, it's likely that two terms beckon, at least. This means that the coming war inside the Conservative Party has time to work it's way through to a natural conclusion, even if Labour struggle to deliver in office.
I'd also lean into personality politics here. Conservatives are terrified of Farage, in a kind of mirror image of what has happened in the US, where Trump completely dominates Republicans. I'd raise the question for both parties - what happens when these characters fade away from the scene? Reform without Farage were going nowhere. UKIP bombed every time he left. Were Trump to die tomorrow, the MAGA revolution ends overnight. I see the Conservative pivot to the right as a reaction to a specific period, where the right is dominated by one individual. When that period ends, as it will, it's difficult to see how anyone will persuade the British electorate to vote for the far right in sufficient numbers to form a government, and if the Conservatives pursue that agenda themselves, I can't see them benefiting greatly. More likely, in my view, would be that such a move helps a poor Labour government cling on.
So I personally don't see a threat from the far right of any longevity, I can't see how Conservatives would benefit from attempting to absorb the far right (hasn't worked so far, has it?) and I suspect Labour have a couple of terms in the bag anyway, pretty much come what may.
Labour do need to deliver though, because the country deserves it. I don't think we should give the far right the credence of being frightened by them. Labour is likely to win big this time because they are perceived to be more centrist. I can't envisage the Tories, or anyone else, sweeping to power on the back of an extreme agenda. I believe a failed Labour government is more likely to be displaced by a more moderate, more traditionally Conservative government, or maybe Lib Dems - who knows?
But then again, I could be completely wrong on all counts.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 3, 2024 10:30:46 GMT
If Labour win their expected huge majority, but poll not less than 40% of the voting electorate and less than Tories/Reform combined ** then it highlights in BIG neon letters that our own system is as flawed as America’s. (** I combine those two because essentially they seem to be two sides of the same coin which is probably less true of the LOC parties.) To me, what it shows is that there is still the potential for a united ROC party to likewise win a landslide win next time - unless our electoral system is changed or Labour do a demonstrably great job. I am confident that this is what they are aiming to do but they will be working in really difficult world conditions as well as having to deal with detritus of fourteen years of appalling mis-governance by three Tory administrations with five Prime Ministers, each causing long term damage to the social fabric of this country in their own, selfish and/or misguided ways. A lot of reform support doesn't translate to the tories at all I would say and it would in a way make more sense to add Lab, Lib, Green percentages together (especially in light of tactical voting) than the tories and reform. Reform vi consists of those who previously haven't, and perhaps never will, vote or vote irregularly as well as disillusioned ex Labour voting red-wallers etc as much as ex tories. |
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jul 3, 2024 10:34:34 GMT
Mel Stride says Labour likely to win a large majority,
"Some people are on the pitch! They think it's all over!" Kenneth Wolstenholme
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markw
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Post by markw on Jul 3, 2024 10:35:22 GMT
"Sadiq Khan is extending London’s congestion charge to all zero-emission vehicles from the end of next year.” The headline is lifted from the Torygraph they appear to have zero evidence, what a shocker and TFL have made no statements regarding an extent to EV's at all. The assertion appears no where else. Given it's supposed to be a congestion charge it doesn't seem unreasonable that measures should aim at reducing congestion. It was on the BBC News web site two days ago. You should really check before making unfounded assertions. In fact, because of their greater weight, electric vehicles produce more PM2.5 particles from tyre and brake wear than vehicles with internal combustion engines do, so it's entirely reasonable to discourage their use in the centre of London. Cars have been getting heavier for years and I agree some EVs are heavier than ice cars, but these are usually models from existing manufacturers that are often little more than conversions of existing ice models. Purpose built EVs like those from Tesla are no heavier then similar cars in their segment. As for brake dust, well EVs really produce very little as they rely on recuperation for braking, the motor runs as a generator recharging the battery as you slow down. Only aggressive or emergency braking uses the friction brakes. |
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 10:43:05 GMT
markwI lived in Bishopston just down the road decades back as a student, was a bit of a shit hole then as well tbh. I used to drink in the Greenbank is it still there?
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 3, 2024 10:48:31 GMT
Domjg, I live in Eastville in Bristol. It's far worse now clearly but it's always been a strange mark of British cities, even prosperous ones, to have very visibly deprived areas. Reading, not far from where I live and where I went to school and often worked is a case in point. It's without a doubt one of the most prosperous large towns in the country, sitting as it does in the middle of the Thames Valley tech zone and less than 30 mins by train from London. And yet it has and to a greater or lesser extent always has had areas within it, even very close to the centre that look/looked as if they could be in some of the most deprived areas of the north. Parts of Oxford, including some close to where I used to live are similarly affected. To one extent or another a tacit acceptance of urban public squalor has been a feature of city/town life in this country to a greater or lesser extent for decades and to a far greater extent than elsewhere in Europe. If Labour focus on the causes and symptoms of that as well as education and health they'll have done us all a long term service. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 10:53:45 GMT
To me, what it shows is that there is still the potential for a united ROC party to likewise win a landslide win next time - unless our electoral system is changed or Labour do a demonstrably great job. I am confident that this is what they are aiming to do but they will be working in really difficult world conditions as well as having to deal with detritus of fourteen years of appalling mis-governance by three Tory administrations with five Prime Ministers, each causing long term damage to the social fabric of this country in their own, selfish and/or misguided ways. Obvious difficulties on satisfying voters will be 1) Refusal to rejoin the EU. 2) Refusal to raise taxes to the levels in other comparable countries 3) Refusal to limit immigration. 4) refusal to reverse the lack of investment in national assets including millions more homes (they have a target of 1.5 million in 5 years, but Harford suggested the shortfall is already more like 6 million, and rising with every immigrant) 5) Likely low growth failing to increase tax revenues.
The very low support for lab suggests they have utterly failed to inspire anyone to believe in them. Their policies, or lack of them, seem tailored to try to appease those who arent going to vote for them anyway. Democracy works if parties listen to voters and change their policies to ones voters want. Whereas we are in an era where governments are refusing to give voters the polcies they want, maybe because those governments believe these policies are impossible to carry out. and yet said governments will not stand up and publicly argue why the policies are impractical. Short term this may generate wins, but long term it generates revolt.
One thing the conservatives have done is create the most draconian anti protest laws in the Uk for a very long time. Thats a problem lab will have to decide how to deal with if they win. Do they crack down on protests, or abolish those laws?
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markw
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Post by markw on Jul 3, 2024 10:54:51 GMT
markw I lived in Bishopston just down the road decades back as a student, was a bit of a shit hole then as well tbh. I used to drink in the Greenbank is it still there? Yes, it's still there. Might have rubbed shoulders with you back in the day! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 11:00:15 GMT
If Labour win their expected huge majority, but poll not less than 40% of the voting electorate and less than Tories/Reform combined ** then it highlights in BIG neon letters that our own system is as flawed as America’s. (** I combine those two because essentially they seem to be two sides of the same coin which is probably less true of the LOC parties.) To me, what it shows is that there is still the potential for a united ROC party to likewise win a landslide win next time - unless our electoral system is changed or Labour do a demonstrably great job. I am confident that this is what they are aiming to do but they will be working in really difficult world conditions as well as having to deal with detritus of fourteen years of appalling mis-governance by three Tory administrations with five Prime Ministers, each causing long term damage to the social fabric of this country in their own, selfish and/or misguided ways. That happens in most elections when the tories win, the combined left of centre votes outnumber the ROC vote, indeed it happened in 2019. Unfortunately it didn't lead to a popular uprising for a PR system |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 11:02:25 GMT
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for
@gmb - Poll 4/4:
LAB 38% (-3)
CON 18% (-)
REF 17% (+3)
LD 11% (-1)
GRE 7% (+2)
SNP 3% (+1)
OTH 6% (-1)
F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024.
Electoral Calculus works out
CON 56,
LAB 469,
LD 75,
REF 9,
GRE 3
SNP 15
PC 3
Others 2
So very similar seat spread to their MRP
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Post by jimjam on Jul 3, 2024 11:09:13 GMT
Personally will be disappointed if Labour get lower than 38%.
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 3, 2024 11:10:43 GMT
It was on the BBC News web site two days ago. You should really check before making unfounded assertions. In fact, because of their greater weight, electric vehicles produce more PM2.5 particles from tyre and brake wear than vehicles with internal combustion engines do, so it's entirely reasonable to discourage their use in the centre of London. Cars have been getting heavier for years and I agree some EVs are heavier than ice cars, but these are usually models from existing manufacturers that are often little more than conversions of existing ice models. Purpose built EVs like those from Tesla are no heavier then similar cars in their segment. As for brake dust, well EVs really produce very little as they rely on recuperation for braking, the motor runs as a generator recharging the battery as you slow down. Only aggressive or emergency braking uses the friction brakes. I don't know if it's true but a Tesla driving colleague told me that the wheel brakes are used so seldom that they can in theory last the life of the car. Wouldn't touch a Musk mobile personally though due to my visceral dislike of him. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 11:18:07 GMT
First section of a must-read article from Zadie Smith in the Guardian:
“ Twenty-four years ago, when I was 24, I did my first reading in an American bookshop. At the end, in the question-and-answer bit, a middle-aged lady with a disgruntled look on her face put her hand up: “Yeah, I don’t get it.”
I asked her what she didn’t get.
“It just doesn’t add up. I mean, if you didn’t have any money – then how’d you go to that fancy university?”
Now it was my turn to be confused: “Um … well, it was free.”
“Whaddya mean? Like a scholarship?”
“No. It was just free for everybody. Our taxes pay for it.”
I will never forget the gasp that went around that Barnes & Noble. So I kept going: “And I didn’t pay for accommodation, either – we couldn’t afford it, so Brent council gave me a full grant. Oh, and then my little brother got run over by a truck during my first year and the NHS rebuilt his entire right hand – for free!” More gasping. I genuinely thought some of the older members of the crowd were about to have a heart attack, which would of course have been a pretty expensive affair – for them.”
Of course, not all these changes I have been under Tory governments but the overall downward spiral has been remarkable. In the 70s I received a grant to become an instrumental music teacher and, when I first taught, tuition to all was free.
My daughter - now an internationally well known vocal coach - also received a grant and in the early sixties, when I made the ridiculous decision ** to join the Civil Service in London, I shared a lovely bedsit flat just off of High Street Kensington with my brother, actor Jon Croft and John Noakes: they both received grants to go to drama college!
** Looking back I have no idea why I didn’t apply to study Art which had been my intention. Don’t think I would have been any good - though who knows? - but I was already playing guitar and would have been mixing with other, similar young people instead of being stuck in a rather spacious office on Milbank, overlooking the Thames, but with what seemed to me at the time a lot of “old” people.
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Post by nickpoole on Jul 3, 2024 11:19:31 GMT
NEW Survation Telephone Tracker for @gmb - Poll 4/4: LAB 38% (-3) CON 18% (-) REF 17% (+3) LD 11% (-1) GRE 7% (+2) SNP 3% (+1) OTH 6% (-1) F/w 26th June - 2nd July. Changes vs. 26th June 2024. Electoral Calculus works out CON 56, LAB 469, LD 75, REF 9, GRE 3 SNP 15 PC 3 Others 2 So very similar seat spread to their MRP Doesn't look like LD have gained anything since Swanson's effort in 2019. Woeful. |
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Post by leftieliberal on Jul 3, 2024 11:20:24 GMT
leftieliberal I made no assertions the telegraph article said TFL had made no comment, which is what I've said. If you Google extension of congestion charging to ev's the only thing that comes up is the telegraph article.
The link you provided indicates they weren't actually making it up , but as I said before it's supposed to be a congestion reducing measure not a clean air initiative so I suppose if you believe congestion charging is the way to go it seems logical You said "The headline is lifted from the Torygraph they appear to have zero evidence, what a shocker and TFL have made no statements regarding an extent to EV's at all. The assertion appears no where else." You need to rely more on common sense instead of using Google to replace thinking. It took me no more than a minute to find the link by selecting BBC News and then the local news for London. Congestion charging in central London goes all the way back to Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson continued it when he was Mayor, so it is not a party-political issue. I suppose you oppose it because you don't live in London. For us Londoners congestion charging means higher average speeds (although still only around the same speed as in the days of horse-drawn buses and cabs) and that leads to lower emissions because there is less stop-start driving. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 11:27:51 GMT
Congestion charging is of course nothing to do with pollution, its aim is to reduce traffic congestion by making people think twice before using their cars
In that respect electric cars cause as much congestion as ICE cars. Made little difference when there weren't many electric cars, now with increasing numbers it's logical to include them
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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 11:33:31 GMT
Personally will be disappointed if Labour get lower than 38%. Ditto. But I wouldn't be surprised. |
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