|
|
Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 14:13:20 GMT
What are people's plans for election night? My plan is to wait up for tge exit poll, then try to sleep, setting my alarm for 2am Then watch the coverage, probably Channel 4, until around 5am (flexible on this time). Most of the constituencies that count through the night should be in by then Then try and get a few hours sleep , later watching the coverage as the day counters come in I usually get a few beers and some snacks in and go all the way through to 4 or 5. Tonight I may not have beers (heavy night last night with friends staying over) and I may have to jack it in about 3 if I can't keep awake |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 14:19:03 GMT
]Putin seems to recognise that the only solution for his war aims is large scale immigration, but this is creating a huge far-right backlash. And far-right in Russia is far,f ar, far right! The thing about some communists is they travelled so far to the left they reached all the way round back to the right. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 14:21:02 GMT
Given they were an enthusiastic cheerleader for Johnson, endorsed Liz Truss and, well, everything else that's happened over the past 14 years, it's perhaps a tad rich for the Torygraph to be calling another party's leader "clownish"! Enjoyable tale of woe though. Not to mention that Sunak’s campaign has been beyond clownish. It’s been legendarily bad, probably to be held up in future as the definitive example of how not to run a campaign. At least Davey saw an increase in his party’s fortunes. I think Davey did well. He succeeded in grabbing media attention and also made himself look human. His approach wasnt a million miles away from Johnsons, but with a very much better reputation for honesty. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 14:24:22 GMT
Reform have parked a big van with Vote Reform posters plastered all over it right outside the polling station in Frinton. Both Labour and the Tories have reported this to the returning officer and the police, but, so far, nothing has been done about it. What precisely would be illegal about it? |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 14:25:04 GMT
What are people's plans for election night? My plan is to wait up for tge exit poll, then try to sleep, setting my alarm for 2am Then watch the coverage, probably Channel 4, until around 5am (flexible on this time). Most of the constituencies that count through the night should be in by then Then try and get a few hours sleep , later watching the coverage as the day counters come in I'm going to have a snooze this afternoon. Then this evening we'll watch a film, then the 10.00 news on catchup, and be ready for the first result around 11.30. Interestingly we'll be having haggis for dinner, as my son is over from Hong Kong and he missed Burns night. We've got a good crop of raspberries from the allotment for the Cranachan. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 14:25:51 GMT
Ed Davey arrived to cast his vote in his Kingston and Surbiton constituency.  |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 14:26:10 GMT
Maybe Colin will vote Labour? He wasn’t too impressed with this lot of Tories, and he voted for Blair in ‘97 didn’t he? (Even Trev. considered Starmer to be Tory Plan B?) That last bit was just a Trevor wind-up. Don't forget he worshiped at the great Rwanda totem, so he wouldn't be happy that it is for the chop. |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 14:27:48 GMT
Spread betting is trending upwards for Lib Dem seats (64 now) at the expense of the Tories.
|
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 4, 2024 14:28:36 GMT
...I am guessing the Reform campaign has been very expensive. I am sure that, even if we don't, the Vicar will be calling for an investigation, especially as, when this election was called, he wasn't expecting to have to sign on at the Labour Exchange tomorrow. Given Clacton's history, I'd assumed that the Tory incumbent was alert to the Reform threat, had been working assiduously to counter it and therefore had a good base to defend the seat when Farage descended. Was that not in the fact the case? Maybe Watling saw the job of MP as a well-paid sinecure and isn't too bothered about retiring once defeated? I don't think anyone in Clacton, let alone Giles, considered Reform to be much of a threat until Farage turned up.
Also, you obviously don't know Mt Watling if you juxtapose him and "working assiduously" in the same sentence!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 14:30:18 GMT
Does anyone have figures on turnout yet? Jane and I haven’t turned out yet. Apparently Rosie nicked out early and voted Reform, the rascal. Apparently they accepted her name pad as proof of identity - I imagine they would have been a bit nervous of her to be honest. |
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 14:30:23 GMT
What are people's plans for election night? My plan is to wait up for tge exit poll, then try to sleep, setting my alarm for 2am Then watch the coverage, probably Channel 4, until around 5am (flexible on this time). Most of the constituencies that count through the night should be in by then Then try and get a few hours sleep , later watching the coverage as the day counters come in Got some wotsits in a few days ago and have added some Scottish seaweed crisps into the snack drawer. Have some bubbles in the fridge for the exit poll, but I am going to try to do the long night stint, I am hoping to stay up for Liam Fox, Rishi Sunak and Jacob Reesmug. I hope I don't regret the bubbles. . .maybe I should have stuck with my traditional gin, which encourages lacrymosity in me. |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
|
Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 14:30:52 GMT
Unfortunately have grand parent child care duties from 7.30 am tomorrow and for the whole weekend. so won't be as engrossed in the coverage as otherwise.
Will probably watch the exit poll and then knock it on the head for a few hours.
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 14:31:28 GMT
It seems likely that UK politics will remain fragmented into many parties and in that environment there is a excellent chance that no party will ever again get 40% of the vote, It is worth noting that the Conservatives have only managed it twice in the last seven elections and Labour once in the last five - or only 3 times in the last 13 if you prefer. I do get all of that - but it does not explain why such a significant chunk of the Labour vote disappeared so quickly! It rather suggests that a fair bit of support was very soft indeed. Had it not been for the Reform surge disproportionately taking Tory votes, it looks pretty likely that Labour's lead would have fallen back well into single figures.Not really. Reform was polling at around 11% pre-Farage and around 16% with him as leader - so +5%. Even if all of that went to the Conservatives - which in reality it wouldn't - that only gets them from c23% to c28%, still giving Labour a double digit lead. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 14:33:43 GMT
Maybe Colin will vote Labour? He wasn’t too impressed with this lot of Tories, and he voted for Blair in ‘97 didn’t he? (Even Trev. considered Starmer to be Tory Plan B?) That last bit was just a Trevor wind-up. Don't forget forget he worshiped at the great Rwanda totem, so he wouldn't be happy that it is for the chop. Well there was stuff he would’ve liked about Labour too, like the green investment, but yeah, I don’t recall if he had voted Lab before, whereas Col. said he had… |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 14:33:51 GMT
The consistent message of the final polling appears to be that 10% - 15% of those intending to vote Labour up to 10 days ago have drifted elsewhere. It now looks as if the party's vote share will fall well short of what was achieved in 2017 - ie 41% across GB. I wonder what caused the late evaporation of support. if they are certain to win then you dont need to vote for them? You can instead vote for someone whose policies you actually like but who cannot win, like the monster raving looney. Such a phenomenon handily explains why proportionately more voters switched to lab in places where con were strongest (or at least, Im assuming they are doing so right now but thats what polling said) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 14:36:48 GMT
graham’s, obviously pleased reporting of how low Labour’s vote is trending, makes me think of the amateur football pundits, who confidently predict that England will definitely lose their next match, based on the fact that whilst they won the last one, the manner of their victory wasn’t acceptable. Footy doesn’t work like that - and we can analyse levels of political support once all the votes have been counted.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 14:37:56 GMT
Unfortunately have grand parent child care duties from 7.30 am tomorrow and for the whole weekend. so won't be as engrossed in the coverage as otherwise. Will probably watch the exit poll and then knock it on the head for a few hours. What, your grandchild?!? |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 14:38:16 GMT
Reform have parked a big van with Vote Reform posters plastered all over it right outside the polling station in Frinton. Both Labour and the Tories have reported this to the returning officer and the police, but, so far, nothing has been done about it. What precisely would be illegal about it? From the Electoral Commission website: "Campaigning is allowed on polling day, so you might see campaign material on social media or receive a leaflet through your door on polling day itself. But campaign material is not allowed within the perimeters of a polling station. This means there shouldn’t be any campaign posters, banners or other advertising literature: in the polling station itself on the polling station building on the land of the polling station, such a car park However, there’s nothing to stop the house next door to the polling station from displaying campaign material in the window or putting a banner up in the garden." |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 14:39:08 GMT
That last bit was just a Trevor wind-up. Don't forget forget he worshiped at the great Rwanda totem, so he wouldn't be happy that it is for the chop. Well there was stuff he would’ve liked about Labour too, like the green investment, but yeah, I don’t recall if he had voted Lab before, whereas Col. said he had… Don't forget that he eventually admitted to being a Conservative Party member. Highly unlikely he would vote Labour. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 14:40:55 GMT
Well there was stuff he would’ve liked about Labour too, like the green investment, but yeah, I don’t recall if he had voted Lab before, whereas Col. said he had… Don't forget that he eventually admitted to being a Conservative Party member. Highly unlikely he would vote Labour. Yes that makes it less likely. (Stanley Johnson is a member and said he’s voting Lib Dem tho’) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 14:41:52 GMT
Just back from voting. One canvasser outside the polling station, a very pleasant LDEM lady. If the polls are to be believed, LDEM will comfortably take the seat.
Stocked up with suitable liquid refreshment and nibbles, so ready for the off. Will try and punch some zeds this afternoon, as it'll be an all-nighter for me, as usual. Have got 'North by Northwest' on blu ray, so might watch that as a birthday tribute to Eva.
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 14:43:14 GMT
neilj - we're prepped with beer & wine. Dr A plans to follow your lead; exit poll, then bed for a couple of hours. I'm inclined to snooze in the chair, if rest is needed. mandolinist - you may not know this, but the bubbles are actually harmless.
|
|
|
|
Post by athena on Jul 4, 2024 14:45:17 GMT
What are people's plans for election night I'll be going to bed shortly after the exit poll - I may stay awake until the first couple of results have given the exit poll team a chance to tweak their prediction - as I will be getting up at 5.15am. I can't summon any enthusiasm for a Lab landslide and I've had a stressful couple of days. I shall survey the new electoral landscape over a strong mug of black coffee and toast with peanut butter. |
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 14:48:51 GMT
commentator at wimbledon with a 'colemanball'
"Nice to see both players are here at the end"
Would have been an odd finish if there was only one player there!
|
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 14:49:53 GMT
But gosh wouldn't it be a shocker if the polls were so badly wrong tonight?
|
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 14:53:15 GMT
But gosh wouldn't it be a shocker if the polls were so badly wrong tonight? Please don't, just thinking about it makes me feel queazy. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 14:53:37 GMT
Attn cycling fans:
Mark Cavendish is near the front of the peloton with 28 km to go. Can he extend his record?
|
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 14:55:15 GMT
Thanks c-a-r-f-r-e-w, so caught up with election thing I forgot it was on! |
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jul 4, 2024 14:56:48 GMT
But gosh wouldn't it be a shocker if the polls were so badly wrong tonight? Just shut the fuck up. |
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 14:57:13 GMT
I do get all of that - but it does not explain why such a significant chunk of the Labour vote disappeared so quickly! It rather suggests that a fair bit of support was very soft indeed. Had it not been for the Reform surge disproportionately taking Tory votes, it looks pretty likely that Labour's lead would have fallen back well into single figures. The reform vote may mainly transfer into higher turnout with a corresponding drop for other parties rather than have gone back to Tories. It shouldn't really be a surprise that, with Labour offering very little, their turnout would be soft and motivated by getting the Tories out. Now that's nailed on then there's no need for the less politically engaged to bother but this may be reflected more in safe Labour seats than in the new marginals where people still have a motivation to get rid of their Tory MP, maybe for the first time ever. |
|
