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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 11:59:57 GMT
At least Davey saw an increase in his party’s fortunes. or not? Election Maps UK @electionmapsuk Final vote share estimate: LAB: 38.7% (+5.8) CON: 21.2% (-23.5) RFM: 16.4% (+14.3) LDM: 11.2% (-0.6) GRN: 6.7% (+4.0) All that Norman Wisdom stuff to go backwards from an already low base. Not in seats. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 12:12:28 GMT
At least Davey saw an increase in his party’s fortunes. or not? Election Maps UK @electionmapsuk Final vote share estimate: LAB: 38.7% (+5.8) CON: 21.2% (-23.5) RFM: 16.4% (+14.3) LDM: 11.2% (-0.6) GRN: 6.7% (+4.0) All that Norman Wisdom stuff to go backwards from an already low base. I’m not sure how the vote share went across the whole campaign? But looks like the number of seats might go up a bit... |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 12:32:58 GMT
From Number Cruncher politics
Poll Alert: Voting intention
By Matt Singh
Please note: All fieldwork referenced in this email was completed before polling stations opened.
Our voting intention figures point to a dramatic end to a dramatic parliament, with Labour poised to win a very substantial victory. Full GB figures and changes from 2019 are as follows:
Labour 41 (+8)
Conservative 23 (-22)
Reform UK 13 (+11)
Liberal Democrats 11 (-1)
Green 7 (+5)
SNP 2 (-2)
Plaid Cymru 1 (=)
Another party or candidate 2 (+1)
Eight per cent of respondents (with normal weighting) were undecided, however their low likelihood of voting means that they represent only 4 per cent of likely voters (after weighting for turnout). Number Cruncher has, since our last public poll, introduced squeezing for undecided voters, however the impact is small as many have had by yesterday made their minds up.
Those who made their minds up in the final days (around 1 in 8) have broken disproportionately for the Conservatives – indeed within this (admittedly small) subset of the vote, we see a fairly even split between Labour, the Tories, and the Lib Dems.
Number Cruncher interviewed 2,496 GB adults online on 3rd July
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 12:38:37 GMT
Re-a post I made yesterday, today's local paper does indeed include another Reform wrap around. So that's four altogether. I would guess they don't come cheap. So with those, eight leaflets - four delivered by post and four by a delivery company plus hire of halls, vans and buses all over the place, I am guessing the Reform campaign has been very expensive. I am sure that, even if we don't, the Vicar will be calling for an investigation, especially as, when this election was called, he wasn't expecting to have to sign on at the Labour Exchange tomorrow. wb61 may be able to give us the exact law on this, but I suspect Reform will put some of this down as the - tightly regulated - constituency expenditure and most it as part of the - extremely generous - national campaigning spending. I think there is some jiggery-pokery about whether the candidate is mentioned or not or something. Farage probably knows the rules given that the Conservatives got done for using these tactics against him in Thanet. So it is pure coincidence that Reform have decided to do all their national campaigning in Clacton. If the election had been 4 or 5 years long, they would have got round to the other 649 constituencies in the same way.  |
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 12:39:12 GMT
The consistent message of the final polling appears to be that 10% - 15% of those intending to vote Labour up to 10 days ago have drifted elsewhere. It now looks as if the party's vote share will fall well short of what was achieved in 2017 - ie 41% across GB. I wonder what caused the late evaporation of support.
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 12:43:06 GMT
My guess is most would be accounted for by Conservative switchers whose resolve to vote Labour instead was never very strong, plus some tactical switching to vote Liberal in England (or anyone but SNP in scotland)
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Post by roznewgirl on Jul 4, 2024 12:45:33 GMT
Just voted, me lab, bf green. I was going green but when I got in the booth I just got all laboury, I just couldn't go green. I had no trouble voting green in the locals. I do wonder if this syndrome is common, it may mean greens won't take Bristol central. My partner was/is much more upset with lab than me so stayed green after the locals. Bristol NE is nailed on lab win so it's all navel gazing here. We just voted. Two reds here in sunny Walthamstow. No shock if we win here but I was struck by how everyone looked happy. I knew a couple of people in the polling station but generally everyone seemed optimistic for the non-Tory future. No idea if this my delusion or tinted glasses but let's hope the mood remains |
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 12:52:20 GMT
Just been and voted, both Green in a safe Labour seat. Since we had the car out we went to a couple of shops in Bristol Central which sit across the road from a polling station, for the first time in years I spotted tellers outside, one Green one Labour, looks like the GOTV might be very important there and that the canvass returns are very close.
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Post by mandolinist on Jul 4, 2024 12:53:10 GMT
Does anyone have figures on turnout yet?
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Post by lefthanging on Jul 4, 2024 12:54:21 GMT
Just voted Lib Dem for the first time - my heart is with Labour but we fairly recently moved to a (currently Conservative) Tory / Lib Dem marginal so it had to be done.
I suppose Ed's daring escapades made me feel better about it at least - although I was sad he didn't follow up Tuesday's bungeeing with a parachute jump yesterday.
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Post by jimjam on Jul 4, 2024 12:55:29 GMT
As per Matt Singh (Thanks Bardini) above previously undecided voters have broke fairly evenly amongst Lab/Con/LD hence 'disproportionately for the Conservatives'. (must be same for LDs).
So as expected the notional turnout increase brings Labours VI (vote share) down.
This is no big deal and the Tory 2019 voters losing their resolve to desert them will most likely be modest so a Lab victory of comfortably over 10% and probably 12-15% v Cons seems highly probable imo; I would be delighted to be wrong but can't foresee a margin of over 15%.
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 13:00:53 GMT
Just voted Lib Dem for the first time - my heart is with Labour but we fairly recently moved to a (currently Conservative) Tory / Lib Dem marginal so it had to be done. I suppose Ed's daring escapades made me feel better about it at least - although I was sad he didn't follow up Tuesday's bungeeing with a parachute jump yesterday. Which seat is that? |
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Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 13:05:36 GMT
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 13:13:58 GMT
The consistent message of the final polling appears to be that 10% - 15% of those intending to vote Labour up to 10 days ago have drifted elsewhere. It now looks as if the party's vote share will fall well short of what was achieved in 2017 - ie 41% across GB. In 2017 there were 3,304 candidates and it was very much a two party election (due to being a re-run of Brexit) with the Conservatives and Labour taking 83.5% of the GB vote between them. It was the first GE where both parties exceeded 40% of the vote since 1970. In 2024 there are 4,515 candidates (so 37% more than 2017) and there are five major GB parties (Lab, Con, Reform, LD, Green) plus the SNP in Scotland and PC in Wales all with significant voting potential, plus a higher than usual number of credible Independents and 'Others'. In this context it would be very surprising if any party could achieve 40% of the vote. There is no useful comparison between 2017 and 2024 and I don't know why people keep making it (although I have a strong suspicion). It seems likely that UK politics will remain fragmented into many parties and in that environment there is a excellent chance that no party will ever again get 40% of the vote, It is worth noting that the Conservatives have only managed it twice in the last seven elections and Labour once in the last five - or only 3 times in the last 13 if you prefer. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 13:15:09 GMT
As per Matt Singh (Thanks Bardini) above previously undecided voters have broke fairly evenly amongst Lab/Con/LD hence 'disproportionately for the Conservatives'. (must be same for LDs). So as expected the notional turnout increase brings Labours VI (vote share) down. This is no big deal and the Tory 2019 voters losing their resolve to desert them will most likely be modest so a Lab victory of comfortably over 10% and probably 12-15% v Cons seems highly probable imo; I would be delighted to be wrong but can't foresee a margin of over 15%. But presumably this could relate more to turnout and Labour undecideds not voting rather than necessarily those undecideds breaking in larger numbers to the Tories in any meaningful way? Ie a scenario of not voting at, say, 50% (disproportionately Labour) and more of the remaining breaking for Tories at better percentages than the previous polls were showing. It seems to be mostly Labour hit by a lower vote share rather than all parties and Greens, LD and Reform seem to have held up with some caveats about the late surge in the reform vote being a temporary Cleggmania style boost. Scanning the Wiki page it doesn't really feel that the Tories have moved up much on their share of vote. As you say no big deal in the scheme of things other than the absolute size of the Lab majority. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 13:18:29 GMT
From Number Cruncher politics Poll Alert: Voting intention By Matt Singh Those who made their minds up in the final days (around 1 in 8) have broken disproportionately for the Conservatives – indeed within this (admittedly small) subset of the vote, we see a fairly even split between Labour, the Tories, and the Lib Dems.
But not Reform? Interesting - and good. |
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Post by lefthanging on Jul 4, 2024 13:20:32 GMT
Harrogate and Knaresborough. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 13:21:26 GMT
The supreme court has just handed a U.S. President dictatorial powers with no redress including the indeterminate incarceration of anyone they perceive as their opponent. It's chilling stuff and emphasises the absolute necessity to prevent the criminal lunatic getting back into office. As we're focused on issues closer to home worth remembering the world the incoming regime will face could look very different. A world where close ties with our democratic European neighbours are going to be essential and red lines preventing such arrangements are going to be horrendously dangerous.. About that! youtu.be/3oY1jUY3PWk?si=1-axO3ivo2VWJuo2 |
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Post by athena on Jul 4, 2024 13:27:49 GMT
...I am guessing the Reform campaign has been very expensive. I am sure that, even if we don't, the Vicar will be calling for an investigation, especially as, when this election was called, he wasn't expecting to have to sign on at the Labour Exchange tomorrow. Given Clacton's history, I'd assumed that the Tory incumbent was alert to the Reform threat, had been working assiduously to counter it and therefore had a good base to defend the seat when Farage descended. Was that not in the fact the case? Maybe Watling saw the job of MP as a well-paid sinecure and isn't too bothered about retiring once defeated? |
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 13:27:56 GMT
Does anyone have figures on turnout yet? I don't ever really remember anything other than gossip during the day but there's this post (I think Ipsos): Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley · 4h Could turnout be a story this election? Our prediction poll has 70% certain to vote - down from 80% in 2019. Surveys usually overstate turnout. In reality 2019 was 67% from 80% CTV. But working backwards from 70% CTV now don't be surprised if turnout is in the 50s this time. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 13:29:06 GMT
From Number Cruncher politics Poll Alert: Voting intention By Matt Singh Those who made their minds up in the final days (around 1 in 8) have broken disproportionately for the Conservatives – indeed within this (admittedly small) subset of the vote, we see a fairly even split between Labour, the Tories, and the Lib Dems.
But not Reform? Interesting - and good. A severely chastened but not destroyed tory party is the best outcome for us all long term, imho |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 13:45:05 GMT
Just had a message from my Tory-voting chum who said this time he's voted Labour. I could cry.
He lives in the new Mid Cheshire constituency too which is likely to be a marginal.
In other news another friend from up north tells me they voted Green to stop the super majority - this is also part of the Green's advertising campaign, so it's not just the Tories. A wasted vote but a pity nonetheless after the last 14 years.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 13:46:01 GMT
I won't be posting much today as will be enjoying the results (hopefully) with a glass of bubbly and just reading this as well as the various results sites. Have a good day all (except our long-lost Tory members)!
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Post by mercian on Jul 4, 2024 13:48:53 GMT
Morning all - so voted earlier (polling station is at my youngest's school). Couple of people there, but did not seem to be as many as previous GE's (I've lived in the same constituency since 2011). I was a bit surprised that when I voted there seemed to be far more parked cars and people voting than I can remember, and I've lived here for 40 years. I think most people were expecting a low turnout. Then I realised that for some reason there were two polling stations in the same public library. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 13:54:41 GMT
I won't be posting much today as will be enjoying the results (hopefully) with a glass of bubbly and just reading this as well as the various results sites. Have a good day all (except our long-lost Tory members)! Was expecting to see ole Colin back offering congratulations. Maybe tomorrow…**  (Billy Fury, 1959 hit. Loved him at the time as a very young teenager.) |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 13:56:31 GMT
Does anyone have figures on turnout yet? Jane and I haven’t turned out yet. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 13:56:55 GMT
Maybe Colin will vote Labour? He wasn’t too impressed with this lot of Tories, and he voted for Blair in ‘97 didn’t he? (Even Trev. considered Starmer to be Tory Plan B?)
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 13:57:35 GMT
The consistent message of the final polling appears to be that 10% - 15% of those intending to vote Labour up to 10 days ago have drifted elsewhere. It now looks as if the party's vote share will fall well short of what was achieved in 2017 - ie 41% across GB. In 2017 there were 3,304 candidates and it was very much a two party election (due to being a re-run of Brexit) with the Conservatives and Labour taking 83.5% of the GB vote between them. It was the first GE where both parties exceeded 40% of the vote since 1970. In 2024 there are 4,515 candidates (so 37% more than 2017) and there are five major GB parties (Lab, Con, Reform, LD, Green) plus the SNP in Scotland and PC in Wales all with significant voting potential, plus a higher than usual number of credible Independents and 'Others'. In this context it would be very surprising if any party could achieve 40% of the vote. There is no useful comparison between 2017 and 2024 and I don't know why people keep making it (although I have a strong suspicion). It seems likely that UK politics will remain fragmented into many parties and in that environment there is a excellent chance that no party will ever again get 40% of the vote, It is worth noting that the Conservatives have only managed it twice in the last seven elections and Labour once in the last five - or only 3 times in the last 13 if you prefer. I do get all of that - but it does not explain why such a significant chunk of the Labour vote disappeared so quickly! It rather suggests that a fair bit of support was very soft indeed. Had it not been for the Reform surge disproportionately taking Tory votes, it looks pretty likely that Labour's lead would have fallen back well into single figures. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 14:01:16 GMT
What are people's plans for election night?
My plan is to wait up for tge exit poll, then try to sleep, setting my alarm for 2am
Then watch the coverage, probably Channel 4, until around 5am (flexible on this time). Most of the constituencies that count through the night should be in by then
Then try and get a few hours sleep , later watching the coverage as the day counters come in
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 14:10:08 GMT
In 2017 there were 3,304 candidates and it was very much a two party election (due to being a re-run of Brexit) with the Conservatives and Labour taking 83.5% of the GB vote between them. It was the first GE where both parties exceeded 40% of the vote since 1970. In 2024 there are 4,515 candidates (so 37% more than 2017) and there are five major GB parties (Lab, Con, Reform, LD, Green) plus the SNP in Scotland and PC in Wales all with significant voting potential, plus a higher than usual number of credible Independents and 'Others'. In this context it would be very surprising if any party could achieve 40% of the vote. There is no useful comparison between 2017 and 2024 and I don't know why people keep making it (although I have a strong suspicion). It seems likely that UK politics will remain fragmented into many parties and in that environment there is a excellent chance that no party will ever again get 40% of the vote, It is worth noting that the Conservatives have only managed it twice in the last seven elections and Labour once in the last five - or only 3 times in the last 13 if you prefer. I do get all of that - but it does not explain why such a significant chunk of the Labour vote disappeared so quickly! It rather suggests that a fair bit of support was very soft indeed. Had it not been for the Reform surge disproportionately taking Tory votes, it looks pretty likely that Labour's lead would have fallen back well into single figures. I don't think it's that much, according to the latest sky news tracker Labour are on 39.1%, they were on an average of 41% a few days ago, so you're looking at around a 5% drop At the same time the tories have increased by around 2%, largely at the expense of Reform We won't know until later of course what the reality is |
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