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Post by robbiealive on Jul 4, 2024 10:01:55 GMT
PS not to be confused with Pooka a spirit in animal guise who accompanies J Stewart to bars in Harvey.
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Post by wb61 on Jul 4, 2024 10:11:06 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 10:13:23 GMT
Fretting over at the Telegraph… “ Survation, the pollster, believes that there is only a 53 per cent chance the Tories will end up with more seats than the Lib Dems, a vanishingly small margin of error. YouGov predicts that the Tories will be just 30 seats ahead of Davey’s rabble.
Even if the Tories do edge it by a few seats – say 10 or 15 – their status as the official opposition, and the funding and privileges that come with it, would remain extremely precarious. The likely scale of the defeat will be crushing for remaining Tory MPs. Former top ministers will become obscure non-entities overnight. They will lose their ministerial cars and special advisers, and many will become the butt of jokes. Nobody will care what they say or do. Few will even return their calls.
The blame game will be savage. The Tory party will tear itself apart, Since this is predicated on labour having a big majority, they might perhaps change the rules on opposition funding so that even if con had more MPs than libs, with two comparable parties of opposition it would make sense to give them equal resources as the official opposition rather than giving most to just one party.
But would they prefer to assist con or libs in parliament in terms of their own future prospects, facing either in a future election or when they return to opposition?
Democratically speaking it would make no sense to give special privileges to one opposition party a bit larger than another but still significantly a minority of opposition MPs.
That’s an interesting question Danny. Assisting Cons might keep the Liberal vote split, assuming some one nation liberals remain in or join the Conservatives. On the other hand, if Cons remained more subdued, Lib Dems might be stronger, there might be less cuckoo going on, and it might pull the Overton window left a bit. Be interesting to know what others think: I know some have suggested they might like the one nation conservative thing to survive… |
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Post by lefthanging on Jul 4, 2024 10:15:03 GMT
Since postal votes opened, some (all?) polling companies began asking if you've already voted.
So if someone answered this question and had indeed already voted, would the company either:
1) ask who they voted for, and factor this into their results a 'definite' vote; OR
2) not ask / ask but not include in results
I ask because I think some have suggested that 1 is the case - sometimes as an explanation for some of the tightening (e.g. lab's vote share going down because more lab have voted by postal vote than con already) - whereas if 2 is the case that obviously wouldn't work.
Anybody got a definitive answer?
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 10:18:35 GMT
Ukraine: the discussions above are accurate, as far as I can tell, regarding Russian tactics, but miss one point. There are signs that Russia is failing to generate sufficient new units to replace losses. They have been building at the rate of c 30,000 troops per month, but recent losses of 1,000 - 1,200 a day are greater than recruitment. That's why Russia has more than doubled the starting bonus and is now using billboard adverts in major cities to encourage recruits. It's by no means a given that Russia can sustain this, and while the focus is on Ukraine making progress before a Trump presidency, there are also reasons to think that time is not on Russia's side. The calculate inflation on a weekly basis in Russia, and in the last week it rose by 0.66%, with the annual rate approaching 10%. Things are not going well for the Russian economy, and there are limits the war effort they can sustain. Putin seems to be in a hurry, and that tells us something. It's when these recruits need to start visibly coming from cities west of the Urals that things could start getting unstable. Russia already has a demographic crisis. The country is doomed in the medium term. Putin seems to recognise that the only solution for his war aims is large scale immigration, but this is creating a huge far-right backlash. And far-right in Russia is far,f ar, far right! |
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Post by robbiealive on Jul 4, 2024 10:19:00 GMT
Ha ha. I just quoted that scene. It's a classic example of how Hollywood can put two characters in a completely artificial set and make it work. I love the sound of another car hooting to make you think they're really on the road! The director Kazan who ratted on his friends before HUAC is said to have made the film to prove that informing could be virtuous. I've no idea if that's true. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 10:20:36 GMT
Fretting over at the Telegraph… “ Consider the following, all too possible apocalyptic scenario. On Friday morning, we could wake up to not just the greatest Labour landslide in history, but also to the Liberal Democrats as the official opposition. It would represent the Conservative Party’s greatest humiliation since its foundation in 1834. Sir Keir Starmer as Labour prime minister would face the clownish Ed Davey of Post Office scandal fame as leader of the opposition at Prime Minister’s Questions. The Tory leader, whoever he or she may end up being, would be left with two questions at the end of the session, by which time most viewers would have lost interest. The shadow chancellor would be a Lib Dem. Given they were an enthusiastic cheerleader for Johnson, endorsed Liz Truss and, well, everything else that's happened over the past 14 years, it's perhaps a tad rich for the Torygraph to be calling another party's leader "clownish"! Enjoyable tale of woe though. Not to mention that Sunak’s campaign has been beyond clownish. It’s been legendarily bad, probably to be held up in future as the definitive example of how not to run a campaign. At least Davey saw an increase in his party’s fortunes. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 10:30:38 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-w Telegraph "The Tory party will tear itself apart, perhaps even finally realising that it can no longer be the home of both Left-wing, high-tax, woke Remainers and Right-wing, low-tax, anti-woke Brexiteers" Another demented rant from that once proud newspaper showing they don't get it. Banging on about woke, brexit, remain isn't where the country is at or why the tories will lose. The two most important words they missed out and why the tories will lose so badly are competence and integrity. The vast majority of people are not voting because of woke issues or even brexit this time.They are voting against the Tories dishonesty and incompetence. It really should be back to basics again for the tories. But if they do tear themselves apart on issues the country isn't concerned about at the moment, I won't lose any sleep over it Yes, they’ve taken sleaze and incompetence to another level. Even basics they screw up, things we used to be able to take fore granted. It’s kind of ironic for me as the two big things they were hit with - pandemic and inflation due to the war - they didn’t take such a big voting hit for, in part because they adopted more leftish policies, like furlough and subsidy. It’s the basic stuff that did for them. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 10:35:05 GMT
Terrible odds in a two horse race. Without wishing to sound overdramatic this is possibly going to end up as the most important election in my lifetime. I can see dreadful things happening under a Trump administration whereas last time you always felt that despite being in dangerous territory and a wasted 4 years that Trump would tone down the rhetoric and policies once elected and to some degree he did until he got voted out- nothing irreparable anyway.The major damage Trump did in his (first?) term was the Supreme Court judges. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 10:36:41 GMT
“The first uncertainty are the don’t knows. The polls are still reporting that on average those who voted Conservative in 2019 are twice as likely as those who voted Labour to say that they do not know how they will vote on Thursday. This is, in truth, one of the many symptoms of the wave of unpopularity from which the party has struggled to escape ever since Liz Truss left Downing St in October 2022. Many undecideds are as unhappy with the Conservatives as those who say they are going to vote differently this time around – they just are not sure what to do as a result.
Still, if any group of voters is going to drift back to the Conservatives in the final hours the undecideds are probably the most likely to do so. But even if all of them eventually vote for the party they backed in 2019, there are not enough of them to do more than put a three or four point dent in Labour’s lead.”
John Curtice in the Telegraph
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 10:38:21 GMT
“ That really is a very silly comment.” Not really, pjw1961 ` (and your footballing analogy, like most analogies, quickly crumbles). The comment dramatically highlights the fact that the government would hold some 70% of seats when over 60% of voters had voted against them. Making light of that situation is not a happy place to be. That is a different point to the one the original commentator was making, and more about the inequities of FPTP, about which I agree. |
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Post by norbold on Jul 4, 2024 10:40:11 GMT
Reform have parked a big van with Vote Reform posters plastered all over it right outside the polling station in Frinton. Both Labour and the Tories have reported this to the returning officer and the police, but, so far, nothing has been done about it.
Meanwhile, Farage is in the nearby pub buying drinks for everyone.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 10:40:47 GMT
Good luck Sammy  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 10:41:22 GMT
Someone has stolen my Labour billboard from outside my house this evening. I will scour the area tomorrow and see it I can find it. Bastards. Got up 5.30 this morning and went and found it. Vandalised, but I shall nail it back together and put it up again. Not letting anti-democratic gits win. Activistas should have round-the-clock security during election time in my view. (Esp. star leafleters…) |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 10:44:23 GMT
“ The first uncertainty are the don’t knows. The polls are still reporting that on average those who voted Conservative in 2019 are twice as likely as those who voted Labour to say that they do not know how they will vote on Thursday. This is, in truth, one of the many symptoms of the wave of unpopularity from which the party has struggled to escape ever since Liz Truss left Downing St in October 2022. Many undecideds are as unhappy with the Conservatives as those who say they are going to vote differently this time around – they just are not sure what to do as a result.
Still, if any group of voters is going to drift back to the Conservatives in the final hours the undecideds are probably the most likely to do so. But even if all of them eventually vote for the party they backed in 2019, there are not enough of them to do more than put a three or four point dent in Labour’s lead.” John Curtice in the Telegraph I don't think there has been any in depth analysis of this in Scotland, where a large number of the undecided or probably won't vote will be SNP 2019 voters. The extent to which they drift back into the fold (or not, or switch) will decide many of the Scottish marginals - we should get a clue as to how that is going with the Rutherglen result, predicted to come in around 1am tomorrow - click on the screenshot below to see the prediction on Rutherglen from the Scottish page of Electoral calculus (I don't know how to make the attachment show larger)  |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 10:46:19 GMT
Reform have parked a big van with Vote Reform posters plastered all over it right outside the polling station in Frinton. Both Labour and the Tories have reported this to the returning officer and the police, but, so far, nothing has been done about it. Meanwhile, Farage is in the nearby pub buying drinks for everyone. 'Treating' is still an electoral offence (yes, I know he will get away with it). |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 10:46:48 GMT
JohnC"The EU won't open rejoin negotiations until both potential UK governing parties are in favour of rejoining. " Well they certainly won't when the leader of the main " progressive " party utterly disregards the opinion of his membership and says not in my lifetime. But hey he's probably lying. So that's all right then.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 10:47:29 GMT
PS not to be confused with Pooka a spirit in animal guise who accompanies J Stewart to bars in Harvey. Delightful film. Another favourite of mine. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 10:48:08 GMT
I voted at 9.20 btw - my polling station is at a school, so it was best to let the sprogs get safely inside before visiting.
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Post by wb61 on Jul 4, 2024 10:55:13 GMT
Reform have parked a big van with Vote Reform posters plastered all over it right outside the polling station in Frinton. Both Labour and the Tories have reported this to the returning officer and the police, but, so far, nothing has been done about it. Meanwhile, Farage is in the nearby pub buying drinks for everyone. 'Treating' is still an electoral offence (yes, I know he will get away with it). It would be necessary to prove, so that a Jury or Judge is sure, that the treating was either a reward or an incentive for voting in a particular way. Evidentially that could prove very difficult without some of his voters turning against a candidate or others being offered and turning it down and therefore prepared to be witnesses. The positioning of the van, however, should be dealt with without delay!! |
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steve
Member
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 11:01:25 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 4, 2024 11:05:14 GMT
Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election:(Really can't see Reform getting 13 MPs, think they'll struggle to get 2) 18 point Labour lead Labour: 37.6% Conservative: 19.9% Reform UK: 17.0% Liberal Democrats: 12.1% Green Party: 7.2% Scottish National Party: 3.0% Plaid Cymru: 0.6% Other: 2.4% Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents living in Great Britain aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted between the 1st and 3rd of July 2024. We have also updated our MRP model with the data from this final telephone poll. Changes below vs. the 2nd July 2024 update. Probabilistic seat count: Labour: 475 (-9) Conservative: 64 (-) Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1) Scottish National Party: 13 (+3) Reform UK: 13 (+6)Green Party: 3 (-) Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1) Reform on 13 seats?… |
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 11:09:14 GMT
Since postal votes opened, some (all?) polling companies began asking if you've already voted. So if someone answered this question and had indeed already voted, would the company either: 1) ask who they voted for, and factor this into their results a 'definite' vote; OR 2) not ask / ask but not include in results I ask because I think some have suggested that 1 is the case - sometimes as an explanation for some of the tightening (e.g. lab's vote share going down because more lab have voted by postal vote than con already) - whereas if 2 is the case that obviously wouldn't work. Anybody got a definitive answer? 1) Pretty sure anyway. They can't publish the information of who has voted but I'm pretty sure they know who has and then add into likelihood to vote (ie 100%). What they do with that information in the rest of their methodology they won't say, but foolish if they didn't use it in some way to predict trends for those who haven't yet voted. I guess if 20-25% of voters are now voting by post then that will factor into their overall result because by the last few days they will know exactly how the trend for postal voting has gone including the key complicating issues in polling of turnout and don't knows. It's still possible to take a completed envelope down to your polling station and hand it in but I doubt many people would do that so basically if they know how 20% of the population has voted (or not voted) then that's a pretty good sample size subject to voters on the day behaving differently. However I wonder if polling companies know which of their respondents have a postal vote- if they do then that's a pretty good basis for a prediction of the overall result. If they don't then maybe it's a small factor in their polls relating to turnout. Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells · Jun 19 Almost all the companies ask "how likely are you to vote" as part of their method, and I think we probably all include a "already voted" option in there once we get to this point, and weight those people as definite. |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 11:17:13 GMT
I was family ferrying today. First my daughter (23), just finished at Glasgow uni and voting here for the first time in Angus & Perthshire Glens. She said she voted SNP but as she is prone to winding me up I'm not 100% sure. Then back to the house to find my Spectator reading Tory father-in-law in dark mood as his range rover wouldn't start. So back in the car to drive him and my mother-in-law to the polling station. They are both born in Kent so definitely not SNP. However for the first time my father in law indicated he would not be voting Con. He would either be spoiling his paper or voting reform.
Steady stream of voters - not surprising as turnout here last time was around 67%
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markw
New Member
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Post by markw on Jul 4, 2024 11:27:41 GMT
Just voted, me lab, bf green. I was going green but when I got in the booth I just got all laboury, I just couldn't go green. I had no trouble voting green in the locals. I do wonder if this syndrome is common, it may mean greens won't take Bristol central.
My partner was/is much more upset with lab than me so stayed green after the locals.
Bristol NE is nailed on lab win so it's all navel gazing here.
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Post by jimjam on Jul 4, 2024 11:34:33 GMT
Bardini, I like the fact you facilitated voting that you knew would be different to your own.
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Post by jimjam on Jul 4, 2024 11:37:53 GMT
Mark W re "Just voted, me lab, bf green. I was going green but when I got in the booth I just got all laboury, I just couldn't go green."
Think this will happen to many Tories who genuinely said they wouldn't vote for them when they get in the booth.
One reason I think they will exceed 25% and possibly reach 27-28%; above that I doubt with 26% being my central prediction :-).
Labour 38-39% as some of the above at their expense.
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Post by norbold on Jul 4, 2024 11:38:45 GMT
Re-a post I made yesterday, today's local paper does indeed include another Reform wrap around. So that's four altogether. I would guess they don't come cheap. So with those, eight leaflets - four delivered by post and four by a delivery company plus hire of halls, vans and buses all over the place, I am guessing the Reform campaign has been very expensive. I am sure that, even if we don't, the Vicar will be calling for an investigation, especially as, when this election was called, he wasn't expecting to have to sign on at the Labour Exchange tomorrow.
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 11:39:49 GMT
Bardini, I like the fact you facilitated voting that you knew would be different to your own. Thank you My father in law and I agree about many things , just not about politics. We do both agree that voting is a civic duty and therefore it would be hypocritical of me not to facilitate it. I did suggest to him as he got out of the car that in view of his disgust at the current administration he might want to give the SNP a try but the look he gave me back suggests he didn't go with my suggestion.... |
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Post by nickpoole on Jul 4, 2024 11:46:11 GMT
At least Davey saw an increase in his party’s fortunes. or not? Election Maps UK @electionmapsuk Final vote share estimate: LAB: 38.7% (+5.8) CON: 21.2% (-23.5) RFM: 16.4% (+14.3) LDM: 11.2% (-0.6) GRN: 6.7% (+4.0) All that Norman Wisdom stuff to go backwards from an already low base. |
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