pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 8:03:38 GMT
Russia using tactics of sending human waves against machine guns and mortars similar to the First World War and with similar results. The Ukrainians call it 'meat assaults' Russia has the man power, but for how long will it's soldiers and their relatives accept these staggering losses is the question When are they going to mutiny? It's just not sustainable as well as utterly morally repugnant. i have a book called "Armies of the World 1854-1914". In the chapter on Russia it comments: "In the Hermitage Museum in Leningrad* there hung, and probably still hangs, a battle picture from the Russo-Turkish War of 1828-9, depicting an incident in which a Russian infantry regiment filled a ditch with its own living bodies so that the artillery could get forward. The gruesome horror of the picture is no doubt exaggerated but it does represent what was expected of Russian soldiers." * Published 1978, hence the old name for St Petersburg. Then there was the Brusilov offensive in WWI where portions of units were sent into battle unarmed and told to pick up the rifle of a dead comrade. Or the WWII practice of using 'punishment battalions' to clear German minefields by linking arms and walking over them. The Russian leadership have a long history of not caring much about the lives of their soldiers that arguably goes back to the days of serfdom and the brutality they learned from the Mongol conquest. |
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 8:04:44 GMT
Just looking in to say that I have participated in an Opinium poll that came in at midnight. Presumably they will release the results some time tomorrow. That does not apply to Voting Intention polls - Exit Polls cannot be published before close of poll. |
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Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 8:07:11 GMT
Actually it was the Reverend Green and Professor Plum in Cluedo. A poll of characters revealed: Reverend Green - progressive vicar, long term Liberal Democrat Colonel Mustard - former staunch Tory, now voting for Reform Mrs Peacock - traditional Conservative, sticking with the party although she preferred that nice David Cameron Professor Plum - middle aged but woke academic, casting a tactical vote for Labour Miss Scarlett - young woman who thought Corbyn was great and has now switched to Greens in disgust at Starmer Mrs White - oppressed servant, voting Labour Very clever!😁😁 You forget that this is a rural seat, traditionally Conservative, but a shoe-in for the Lib Dems this time because Prof Plum, Miss Scarlett and Mrs White will all vote tactically. |
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 8:08:05 GMT
Morning all - so voted earlier (polling station is at my youngest's school). Couple of people there, but did not seem to be as many as previous GE's (I've lived in the same constituency since 2011). Was told by the polling station staff in our village that turnout was already good at 7.30 |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 8:08:22 GMT
eor "If anything, it feels like an encouragement for Labour to be as dynamic and transformative as possible while they have the moment." May God have mercy on our souls. I have had a sneak preview of the hidden manifesto. 1. Increase tax on North Sea oil and gas to 90%, driving all investment away. 2. Increase tax on 'wealthy' individuals to 50% capital gains and dividend tax. Forcing those folks to move their assets offshore and creating a net tax loss. 3. Stopping non-dom status, thus driving people with that status away and losing the country the money that they spend here. 4. Apply VAT to private school fees. Quite a few children go to private school because of bullying in the state sector. What will happen to them if their parents are forced to send them back there? 5. As in Wales, banning special offers on foods deemed by Big Brother to be bad for people. i.e. anything pleasurable. 6. Reducing drink-driving allowance to 0% in the blood thus driving even more pubs out of business and destroying more pleasure because pleasure is bad. 7. Banning smoking. Ditto reason. Also reducing tax take and increasing smuggling of dangerous fake brands. 8. Withdrawing from NATO and getting rid of nuclear deterrents in the belief that we are safe because the Russians and Chinese are such nice people. 9. Massive increase in Road Tax on petrol and diesel cars and Petrol and diesel duty. Because electric cars are wonderful and the proles won't be able to afford them, thus leaving the roads clear for the commissars to drive around in their chauffeur-driven vehicles and finishing off British car manufacturing. 10. Nationalising everything in sight, thus immediately making them unprofitable and becoming another drain on the state, and justifying even more punitive taxes on the rich and driving them out of the country. Borrowed from the Guardian and all true: "Come with me to another country, far, far away, where things are a little bit different. In this fantastical land, young people can live and work in any country in Europe. You can swim in a river without catching Weil’s disease, or see your doctor. Things aren’t perfect in this country, but 40,000 people rely on food banks instead of 3.1 million. People live half a year longer. Five-year-olds are taller. Reader, you’ll never guess what. That country is Britain! Or it was until 2010, when a parade of five Conservative prime ministers, seven chancellors and eight home secretaries (two of whom were Suella Braverman) climbed behind the wheel of Britain’s temperamental but mostly reliable family hatchback, and drove it into a hedge." |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 8:09:52 GMT
You forget that this is a rural seat, traditionally Conservative, but a shoe-in for the Lib Dems this time because Prof Plum, Miss Scarlett and Mrs White will all vote tactically. The election has been postponed due to the sudden death of one of the candidates, Dr Black |
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Post by graham on Jul 4, 2024 8:11:12 GMT
Voted at 8.45 in Norwich North.A steady flow of voters.
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jul 4, 2024 8:13:02 GMT
Especially as the term "landslide" has been used for decades for very large overall majorities. It's understandable that they're casting about for a superlative, because to most people a "landslide" means a majority like the ones that Blair, Thatcher, Wilson etc achieved. In all of those the other main party was still clearly the party of Opposition, and it was always a question of how long it would take them to build back and be competitive again. Whereas the idea several MRPs are giving of Labour getting a majority of 250 of 300, winning so many seats that the Tories aren't even the second biggest party, that's on a completely different level to get across to people so a new word is needed. I agree the choice they've made has been a stupid one tho because as others have covered it's a technical term in many other countries that has no specific meaning here. Lakeland Lass - not sure you can blame Trump for this one  we imported their debates and their primaries (London?) long before Trump, and my Dem friends might well argue we exported Farage... Thats a fair point. I seem to recall New Labour being equally besotted by Clinton with his notions of "third way" and triagulation. |
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Post by wb61 on Jul 4, 2024 8:16:17 GMT
I was thinking about the psychological effect of the Conservatives approach yesterday of conceding the election and large majorities being spoken of. It occurred to me that this could have the opposite effect than that which was intended of curtailing the Labour vote. People like optimism and to be part of a winning team and might like to say that they played their part so encouragement to vote Labour. Conversely the result on Conservative voters, given the pessimism is along the lines of "what is the point" when it comes voting!!
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domjg
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Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 8:16:31 GMT
Ukraine: the discussions above are accurate, as far as I can tell, regarding Russian tactics, but miss one point. There are signs that Russia is failing to generate sufficient new units to replace losses. They have been building at the rate of c 30,000 troops per month, but recent losses of 1,000 - 1,200 a day are greater than recruitment. That's why Russia has more than doubled the starting bonus and is now using billboard adverts in major cities to encourage recruits. It's by no means a given that Russia can sustain this, and while the focus is on Ukraine making progress before a Trump presidency, there are also reasons to think that time is not on Russia's side. The calculate inflation on a weekly basis in Russia, and in the last week it rose by 0.66%, with the annual rate approaching 10%. Things are not going well for the Russian economy, and there are limits the war effort they can sustain. Putin seems to be in a hurry, and that tells us something. It's when these recruits need to start visibly coming from cities west of the Urals that things could start getting unstable. Russia already has a demographic crisis. The country is doomed in the medium term. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 8:20:23 GMT
Ipsos Final poll, big drop in the Labour lead, but still above the average at 18.
SNP at 6% seems optimistic, the Scotland sub sample was only 203 and has 51% SNP, 23% Labour...
Labour 37% (-5)
Conservatives 19% (nc)
Reform UK 15% (nc)
Lib Dems 11% (nc)
Greens 9% (+2)
n=2,076 GB adults interviewed by phone July 1-3, 2024
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 4, 2024 8:25:25 GMT
Russia is mostly using motorbikes in its attacks recently - they have regressed from APVs (armoured vehicles) through trucks and now to motorbikes. They have lost over 8000 tanks (for reference the UK is reckoned to have 227 tanks in total in service)
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Post by jimjam on Jul 4, 2024 8:32:43 GMT
Up at 6.15 to deliver 'vote today and take ID' leaflets to 200 or so promises in close seat.
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 8:35:24 GMT
Betting latest: Joe Biden 10/1 to win the next US presidential election Terrible odds in a two horse race. Without wishing to sound overdramatic this is possibly going to end up as the most important election in my lifetime. I can see dreadful things happening under a Trump administration whereas last time you always felt that despite being in dangerous territory and a wasted 4 years that Trump would tone down the rhetoric and policies once elected and to some degree he did until he got voted out- nothing irreparable anyway. I can't quite believe that Biden, his family and various high ranking Dems such as Obama are just going to let his candidacy continue. If it had been a case of Bernie Bros not voting for Biden on political grounds it might have been a different argument but it's about "ordinary" Americans seeing a president who is not physically or mentally fit for office and who seems likely to lose because of that. Someone needs to be telling him that he can leave office with his reputation intact or he can go down in the history books as the man who was too stubborn to stand down and prevent a devastating Trump regime for America and the world. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 8:39:40 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 8:39:45 GMT
Ukrainian forces recover in a matter of less than a week territory that it's taken 6 months and tens of thousands of Russian casualties for war criminal Putin's invaders to seize. youtu.be/xh8SSMjAV7k?si=B3m_813BXOorySZd |
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Post by Rafwan on Jul 4, 2024 8:40:05 GMT
“ That really is a very silly comment.” Not really, pjw1961` (and your footballing analogy, like most analogies, quickly crumbles). The comment dramatically highlights the fact that the government would hold some 70% of seats when over 60% of voters had voted against them. Making light of that situation is not a happy place to be. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 8:40:09 GMT
By way of light relief from the likely mental highs and lows to come today/tomorrow, I note that this very day, July 4th, 2024, marks the 100th birthday of Eva Marie Saint, ice cold blond heroine of 'North by Northwest', opposite the immortal Cary Grant. One of Hitch's finest, and one of my all-time favourite films. "He's dustin' crops where there ain't no crops!" Happy 100th, Eva. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Marie_SaintAnd "On the Waterfront". Both films were on telly last Sunday. Indeed. On reflection, presumably a birthday tribute to her by the Beeb. |
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 8:42:38 GMT
Thanks on the basis of this I have revised my plans and am going to sleep between 1am and 4am - after that it is popcorn parade Trouble is you tend to get a bit of gossip before those times "I'm hearing that...". Probably the only benefit of Laura K's client journalism is that she has good contacts but twitter will also be telling us stuff about the counts as well. I'm sure we pretty much knew the ball park for the Sunderland and Newcastle results on the brexit referendum a good half hour before they were announced. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 8:44:16 GMT
neiljThe problem with that is Michelle Obama doesn't actually want to be president. She's never stood for office and has rejected the suggestion she does so every time she's asked. It's possible that the existential threat of the lunatic winning might convince her,but it's hard to see it happening. Which is a shame Barak would make a great "first gentleman"
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 8:51:50 GMT
My tuppence
Government's normally reach an expiry date, the tories are certainly way past theirs
But why new Government's stay in power so long is, atleast partly, due to opposition parties not learning the lessons as to why they lost
Labour took a long time in 1979 before they realised they needed to move back to the centre to win
Similar for tories following the 1997 election and Labour after 2010
If the tory party spends the next 5 years talking to themselves about what or who is 'woke', they will lose again
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Post by RAF on Jul 4, 2024 8:55:53 GMT
And "On the Waterfront". Both films were on telly last Sunday. Indeed. On reflection, presumably a birthday tribute to her by the Beeb. IMHO, On The Waterfront is one of the best films ever made. Eva Marie Saint's performance is extraordinary, the best in the film (sorry Marlon Brando and Rod Steiger - but the truth is what it is!). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 9:07:34 GMT
I was thinking about the psychological effect of the Conservatives approach yesterday of conceding the election and large majorities being spoken of. It occurred to me that this could have the opposite effect than that which was intended of curtailing the Labour vote. People like optimism and to be part of a winning team and might like to say that they played their part so encouragement to vote Labour. Conversely the result on Conservative voters, given the pessimism is along the lines of "what is the point" when it comes voting!! Just went along to vote, seemed quite busy but i dont usually go quite so early. On the way i was still debating my final choice, which coincides nicely with the polling finding of so many undecideds. What was clear was that i wasn't going to vote conservative, but should i vote for the expected winner labour, or the one i would probably prefer to win which was the lib dem? On the grounds that demographically the libs have been on a declining trend in Hastings and the demographics are against them here, so it wouldnt be helping build a future challenger base, I played safe and went Labour. However, if it had been considered close I would not have had this dilemma, simply vote labour to get con out. The general consensus lab will win anyway allowed me the freedom to nearly vote lib. So yes, the conservative strategy was contributing to nearly taking a vote away from labour, though not where it mattered (and again that observed polling trend for more con to defect to the alternate challenger wherever it did matter than when it didnt) and not persuaded by con because you couldn't believe a word they said. But then I probably wasnt their target audience. |
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Post by norbold on Jul 4, 2024 9:15:34 GMT
Indeed. On reflection, presumably a birthday tribute to her by the Beeb. IMHO, On The Waterfront is one of the best films ever made. Eva Marie Saint's performance is extraordinary, the best in the film (sorry Marlon Brando and Rod Steiger - but the truth is what it is!). I agree that On the Waterfront is one of the best films ever made, not sure I'd agree that Eva Marie Saint's performance was better than Brando's. His performance was also extraordinary. I might accept a tie....but only to avoid an argument! |
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Post by JohnC on Jul 4, 2024 9:18:14 GMT
I truly hope Starmer's movement of brexitanian hubris arrogance yesterday pushed enough votes to the lib dems to make a lib dem led opposition a reality. He's probably being realistic. The EU won't let us in for at least a decade. The EU won't open rejoin negotiations until both potential UK governing parties are in favour of rejoining. They won't want to risk another Brexit because of a change of government in the UK. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 9:26:42 GMT
Russia is mostly using motorbikes in its attacks recently - they have regressed from APVs (armoured vehicles) through trucks and now to motorbikes. They have lost over 8000 tanks (for reference the UK is reckoned to have 227 tanks in total in service) I thought I heard a fairly recent news report last year saying we only had 30 tanks? Googling I see a BBC news story from May 2021 which says the existing total of 227 challenger tanks was to be cut to just 148 upgraded challenger 3 tanks. This seemed to be literally an upgrade process to some challenger 2s rather than brand new. Which is what happened to our missile launchers, some of the existing stock got upgraded and the rest got mothballed. In that case we sent the mothballed and not upgraded old ones to ukraine, though it was a funny deal where we bought up some old ones from i think Norway too. Another article from inews jan 2023 says the Uk has four regiments each operating 56 challenger 2 tanks, but also said an unspecified number of the british tanks were not in a condition where they could be sent to Ukraine, and one of the regiments was a 'reserve'. I also came across a website with comments about tank numbers from last year, where someone observed that in order to send one fully functional regiment of tanks to the Gulf War it had been necessary to cannibalise the other three. |
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shevii
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Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 9:37:02 GMT
We don't know how close to the final result this will be but in the heat of an election you forget what the changes are from the last one- unprecedented: Election Maps UK @electionmapsuk Final vote share estimate: LAB: 38.7% (+5.8) CON: 21.2% (-23.5) RFM: 16.4% (+14.3) LDM: 11.2% (-0.6) GRN: 6.7% (+4.0) Labour lead by 17.5pts albeit with a bizzare drop-off in the vote in the final days - their lowest since March 2022. Changes w/ GE2019 electionmaps.uk/polling |
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Post by mark61 on Jul 4, 2024 9:44:23 GMT
I truly hope Starmer's movement of brexitanian hubris arrogance yesterday pushed enough votes to the lib dems to make a lib dem led opposition a reality. I voted Remain and mourned our exit for my Chiidren and Grand childrens sake, but re-joining would be a colossal undertaking sucking all the energy out of the next parliament and probably the one after it as well, even if the EU would countenance it. An indication of the gravity of the choice made in 2016. However it is not even in the Lib Dem manifesto to re-join and as we know that isn't a document they will have to deliver on.one might ask why weren't the Lib Dems bolder? I think Starmer will have more pressing problems to deal with when/if he gets into number 10, hopefully focussing on making life better for ordinary people and rebuilding the fabric of Civil Society |
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Post by pete on Jul 4, 2024 9:51:28 GMT
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Post by robbiealive on Jul 4, 2024 9:52:40 GMT
IMHO, On The Waterfront is one of the best films ever made. Eva Marie Saint's performance is extraordinary, the best in the film (sorry Marlon Brando and Rod Steiger - but the truth is what it is!). I agree that On the Waterfront is one of the best films ever made, not sure I'd agree that Eva Marie Saint's performance was better than Brando's. His performance was also extraordinary. I might accept a tie....but only to avoid an argument! Thanks to @isa for the news about EM Saint. She got an Oscar which set a career up very nicely. she was bound to contrast with the three method actors Steiger Brando and Cobb. But the scene between the former 2 in the taxi is one of the most memorable with the music gradually building as we reach the climax and know what's going to happen. Brando says "Charlie I could have been a contender now I'm on a one-way ticket to Palookaville" Speaking of Saints I'm using my quasi-Papal authority (I was brought up as a Roman Catholic) to reverse James E beatification. |
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we imported their debates and their primaries (London?) long before Trump, and my Dem friends might well argue we exported Farage... 
