|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jul 4, 2024 6:52:56 GMT
I have exercised my democratic mandate.
Vote early, vote often!
|
|
|
|
Post by pete on Jul 4, 2024 6:53:33 GMT
I truly hope Starmer's movement of brexitanian hubris arrogance yesterday pushed enough votes to the lib dems to make a lib dem led opposition a reality. He's probably being realistic. The EU won't let us in for at least a decade. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 6:55:07 GMT
Someone has stolen my Labour billboard from outside my house this evening. I will scour the area tomorrow and see it I can find it. Bastards. Got up 5.30 this morning and went and found it. Vandalised, but I shall nail it back together and put it up again. Not letting anti-democratic gits win. What total scumbags. Bet it was refukers. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 6:56:14 GMT
Early straw in the wind on turnout.
It was reported to me there was an unusually long queue at the polling station at opening time in Bexhill. Longest since the 90s, very elderly looking crowd who didnt look like workers trying to vote before going off to same. Also the roads seemed quieter than usual, as if people werent going somewhere as normal.
Confounding factors in ths poll might include the fact its a summer election, so the long days might be influencing this early turnout. Perhaps summer elections would encourage turnout generally.
Also reported a number of votes placed tactically against labour because of the tax on private education. Plus a general consensus in at least one private school that if the new labour government acted to close down private schools, hardly any of them would be seeking alternative jobs in the state sector. While another report from a state school is that they have a 20% shortage of teaching staff. Staff moving from the private sector to public sytematically seem to be reporting its a tougher job with bigger workload, which while traditionally the salaries are higher may very well mean they just arent or cannot ever be large enough to compensate for poor work conditions. Private schools tend to have longer working days but shorter terms so more weeks clear. All in all its increasingly difficult to find good staff for any school with teachers predominating in age groups with young trainees who havnt given up yet, and those approaching retirement who might have started only in middle age. Its apparently particularly attractive to women as a career you can still get started in after having children, which partly explains why teachers are nowadays disproportionately women.
|
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 6:57:47 GMT
steve I'm an arch EUphile as you know but I'm happy enough with Starmer's current stance. It's electioneering still. Reality will soon overtake rhetoric and things will start to move slowly, quietly quite quickly I suspect
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 7:05:44 GMT
Radio seems to be hunting around for stories which arent to do with the UK election, since they arent supposed to discuss it today.
One story which seems to be allowed is the Ukraine war, where it seems Ukraine is still saying it is not getting enough support. We had a little reporting recently arguing Russia is sustaining huge losses, but the Ukrainian argument is Russia is quite deliberately using its traditional tactics that flesh takes the place of bullets.
Ukraine says it still isnt getting the equipment support it needs, and its hard to disagree with them. Two years into the war we could have been sending them essentially limitless equipment supplies, but we arent. Its this extraordinary game where we only supply them with just enough equipment to hold their own. For many years NATO had a view it only needed two weeks supply of weaponry because the war would be over by then. This isnt the sort of war either side is going to end with ultimate force, and it has become a question of existing resources. I dont quite recall the timing, but this has probably been going on long enough we sent them all our spare equipment YEARS ago, and since then have not troubled ourselves much to increase capacity to make more. Recently sanctions against Russia were ramped up again, but that came two years after the war started! Arguably, we didnt mind if Russia was still selling its oil in exchange for war materials, because we also needed that oil. The energy situation seems to have stabilised somewhat, and only after that had happened did we escalate sanctions. Funny that.
Conservatives promised if they are re-elected they will increase defence spending to...the same levels in percentage terms Labour had in place when last in office. Yes, armed forces spending has been one of those areas con have cut. We are way past the time we had a 'peace dividend' from the fall of the USSR, its the reverse now, Russia is again growing as a military power, but we are still cutting. Our army never had enough supplies of equipment and ammunition for a sustained war from the outset of this one, and the situation has got worse not better. Conservatives had two years to make good on their promises to Ukraine to support them and they failed. At the same time what support they did give was taken significantly from UK reseves and has not been replaced.
There have been two big drains of defence spending. One is the nuclear deterrant. Not so long ago this also proved technically a fiasco when test firings of nuclear missiles failed! Whether you believe nuclear deterrants is necessary or not, and Russian threats during this war coupled with politicial events in the USA rather suggest it is, it would seem our shoestring operations are dubious anyway.
And similarly Con chose to continue construction of the two aircraft carriers ordered by the last labour administration. At the time they were ordered the UK economy was doing far better than it is now, or has been at any time under con. Labour was a golden age of good government and wealth spread compared to what has come since. The ships have been completed but still have a dubious reliability record, do not have enough planes to arm them, the navy doesnt have enough sailors to man all its ships, and doesnt even have enough escort ships so that the carriers could safely operate in a genuine war. Meanwhile the army and ariforce were starved of funding in the dwindling budget to pay the bills for the big ships construction. Ships which are only useful to take part in a war abroad, such as the invasion of the Falklands Islands. Really only practically useful as part of a much larger naval force than we could mount, such as some extra ships to support a US operation. Maybe could take part in the defence of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion but useless to defend Ukraine or in a british or European home defensive war.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jul 4, 2024 7:06:43 GMT
Sun's out. Tories out.
|
|
|
|
Post by pete on Jul 4, 2024 7:07:10 GMT
Final Round up Labour leads by pollster 20 Opinium 20 People Polling 19 Savanta 19 Lord Ashcroft 19 Techne 19 Redfield & Wilton 18 Survation 18 WeThink 17 Deltapoll 17 Whitestone Insight 17 BMG 15 Verian 15 JL Partners 14 More in Common 13 Norstat No yougov? |
|
|
|
Post by pete on Jul 4, 2024 7:11:03 GMT
I have exercised my democratic mandate. Vote early, vote often! What time? |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,382
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 7:14:22 GMT
Final Round up Labour leads by pollster 20 Opinium 20 People Polling 19 Savanta 19 Lord Ashcroft 19 Techne 19 Redfield & Wilton 18 Survation 18 WeThink 17 Deltapoll 17 Whitestone Insight 17 BMG 15 Verian 15 JL Partners 14 More in Common 13 Norstat No yougov? Well spotted that man, I wondered who would spot my deliberate mistake to see who was paying attention at the back 😀 Yougov 17 |
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 4, 2024 7:15:25 GMT
It was Colonel Mustard with the lead pipe in the House of Commons Library. Actually it was the Reverend Green and Professor Plum in Cluedo. A poll of characters revealed: Reverend Green - progressive vicar, long term Liberal Democrat Colonel Mustard - former staunch Tory, now voting for Reform Mrs Peacock - traditional Conservative, sticking with the party although she preferred that nice David Cameron Professor Plum - middle aged but woke academic, casting a tactical vote for Labour Miss Scarlett - young woman who thought Corbyn was great and has now switched to Greens in disgust at Starmer Mrs White - oppressed servant, voting Labour Very clever!😁😁 |
|
|
|
Post by davem on Jul 4, 2024 7:19:58 GMT
Ok last update from Hexham.
We were still knocking on doors with the candidate at 8pm last night, we were getting Labour promises to tell us what time they were planning to vote, this helps us to organise today and not knock people up before they plan to vote.
What was interesting over the last two days was the numbe of undecided voters from just a couple of weeks ag were breaking for Labour. That might be because we have spoken to them two or three times in the last two months. If you are canvassed especially by the candidate you are more likely to vote for whichever party they are from. We have the candidate only doubtful and against and they were almost all now voting Labour.
This makes me conclude that when watching the results we will see a much bigger swing in the seats Labour have targeted, especially those they have never won before. These seats have been flooded with volunteers from sage seats and the ground game has been impressive.
Very little sign of Tory activity, other than a few leaflets..
Ok off to get the vote out.
|
|
|
|
Post by nickpoole on Jul 4, 2024 7:23:50 GMT
I have exercised my democratic mandate. Vote early, vote often! What time? soon after 7 didn't check |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,382
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 7:25:23 GMT
Russia using tactics of sending human waves against machine guns and mortars similar to the First World War and with similar results. The Ukrainians call it 'meat assaults' Russia has the man power, but for how long will it's soldiers and their relatives accept these staggering losses is the question www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80xjne8ryxoThey call them "meat assaults": waves of Russian soldiers coming at their defensive positions, sometimes nearly a dozen times in a day. Lt Col Anton Bayev of the Khartia Brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard says wave after wave can arrive in just a few hours at frontlines positions north of Kharkiv. “The Russians use these units in most cases purely to see where our firing equipment is located, and to constantly exhaust our units,” he said. “Our guys stand in positions and fight, and when four or five waves of the enemy come at you in a day, which you have to destroy without end, it is very difficult - not only physically, but also psychologically.” This tactic has led to staggering Russian casualties since Moscow launched its latest offensive two months ago. Around 1,200 Russian soldiers were being killed or wounded every day in May and June, the highest rate since the beginning of the war, according to Western officials' |
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jul 4, 2024 7:26:45 GMT
A caveat for those getting carried away by my early morning forecast. Ever since Neil Kinnock uttered these words on the morning of polling day in 1992 I've repeated them in every election since. My record reads Played:7 Won:3 Lost:4 This is low midtable form but a win today pulls me way clear of relegation. I join the GOTV fray in Redditch and the Villages later this morning. Good luck everyone today, wherever your polling booth pencil takes you. 😁👍 |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 7:26:46 GMT
Fretting over at the Telegraph… “ Survation, the pollster, believes that there is only a 53 per cent chance the Tories will end up with more seats than the Lib Dems, a vanishingly small margin of error. YouGov predicts that the Tories will be just 30 seats ahead of Davey’s rabble.
Even if the Tories do edge it by a few seats – say 10 or 15 – their status as the official opposition, and the funding and privileges that come with it, would remain extremely precarious. The likely scale of the defeat will be crushing for remaining Tory MPs. Former top ministers will become obscure non-entities overnight. They will lose their ministerial cars and special advisers, and many will become the butt of jokes. Nobody will care what they say or do. Few will even return their calls.
The blame game will be savage. The Tory party will tear itself apart, Since this is predicated on labour having a big majority, they might perhaps change the rules on opposition funding so that even if con had more MPs than libs, with two comparable parties of opposition it would make sense to give them equal resources as the official opposition rather than giving most to just one party.
But would they prefer to assist con or libs in parliament in terms of their own future prospects, facing either in a future election or when they return to opposition?
Democratically speaking it would make no sense to give special privileges to one opposition party a bit larger than another but still significantly a minority of opposition MPs.
|
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 7:29:39 GMT
Thanks eorIf you take the midpoint and round down that translates to: Labour 425 Con 113 Lib Dem 61 SNP 17 Reform 7 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 2 which I will copy into office sweepstake. |
|
domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
|
Post by domjg on Jul 4, 2024 7:29:54 GMT
Russia using tactics of sending human waves against machine guns and mortars similar to the First World War and with similar results. The Ukrainians call it 'meat assaults' Russia has the man power, but for how long will it's soldiers and their relatives accept these staggering losses is the question www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80xjne8ryxoThey call them "meat assaults": waves of Russian soldiers coming at their defensive positions, sometimes nearly a dozen times in a day. Lt Col Anton Bayev of the Khartia Brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard says wave after wave can arrive in just a few hours at frontlines positions north of Kharkiv. “The Russians use these units in most cases purely to see where our firing equipment is located, and to constantly exhaust our units,” he said. “Our guys stand in positions and fight, and when four or five waves of the enemy come at you in a day, which you have to destroy without end, it is very difficult - not only physically, but also psychologically.” This tactic has led to staggering Russian casualties since Moscow launched its latest offensive two months ago. Around 1,200 Russian soldiers were being killed or wounded every day in May and June, the highest rate since the beginning of the war, according to Western officials' When are they going to mutiny? It's just not sustainable as well as utterly morally repugnant. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 7:33:05 GMT
I hope so. But then who will take over? We don't want a Tory type tearing each other apart kind of thing. What we need is an old fashioned Tory men in grey suits kind of thing. Certainly Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsome are in the frame but I've also read Pete Buttigieg is quite fancied. The worry with the former two is their name recognition US wide - it's such a big country it's entirely possible that lots of voters don't know who they are. eor help us out here. I agree with you on the name recognition thing, and I think that's where the positive numbers for Michelle Obama come from - everyone knows her, relatively few people associate Bad Things with her, so she wins... but, she's not even a politician. She's a fantasy candidate, it's like polling on how The Rock would do against Trump. As for the others, some will have some recognition, but that's also not the same as political opinion. Many of us on here would have told a pollster we had a very favourable opinion of Nicola Sturgeon, or even that we would vote for her to be PM over certain other contenders, but in reality that view could have changed significantly once she started running a UK-wide campaign which spelled out what she'd actually do that impacted us. And that's the risk here. American congressperson interviewed on R4 this morning said that US election funding rules will severely constrain who could be the candidate. The current election campaign funding is tied personally to Biden and Harris, so if neither stands then it all falls apart. This might restrict the choice to Harris and someone else, and possibly to Harris for president from what she was saying. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 7:33:57 GMT
Got up 5.30 this morning and went and found it. Vandalised, but I shall nail it back together and put it up again. Not letting anti-democratic gits win. What total scumbags. Bet it was refukers. Billboard restored to its proper place. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,355
|
Post by Danny on Jul 4, 2024 7:36:25 GMT
Just looking in to say that I have participated in an Opinium poll that came in at midnight. Presumably they will release the results some time tomorrow. Or they want to test if insomniacs are representative of the population. |
|
|
|
Post by alec on Jul 4, 2024 7:45:30 GMT
Ukraine: the discussions above are accurate, as far as I can tell, regarding Russian tactics, but miss one point. There are signs that Russia is failing to generate sufficient new units to replace losses. They have been building at the rate of c 30,000 troops per month, but recent losses of 1,000 - 1,200 a day are greater than recruitment. That's why Russia has more than doubled the starting bonus and is now using billboard adverts in major cities to encourage recruits.
It's by no means a given that Russia can sustain this, and while the focus is on Ukraine making progress before a Trump presidency, there are also reasons to think that time is not on Russia's side. The calculate inflation on a weekly basis in Russia, and in the last week it rose by 0.66%, with the annual rate approaching 10%. Things are not going well for the Russian economy, and there are limits the war effort they can sustain. Putin seems to be in a hurry, and that tells us something.
|
|
|
|
Post by lululemonmustdobetter on Jul 4, 2024 7:48:47 GMT
Morning all - so voted earlier (polling station is at my youngest's school). Couple of people there, but did not seem to be as many as previous GE's (I've lived in the same constituency since 2011).
|
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 4, 2024 7:50:17 GMT
By way of light relief from the likely mental highs and lows to come today/tomorrow, I note that this very day, July 4th, 2024, marks the 100th birthday of Eva Marie Saint, ice cold blond heroine of 'North by Northwest', opposite the immortal Cary Grant. One of Hitch's finest, and one of my all-time favourite films. "He's dustin' crops where there ain't no crops!" Happy 100th, Eva. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Marie_SaintAnd "On the Waterfront". Both films were on telly last Sunday. |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 7:50:54 GMT
Someone has stolen my Labour billboard from outside my house this evening. I will scour the area tomorrow and see it I can find it. Bastards. Someone probably wanted it as a souvenir. I've heard that 2024 Conservative billboards are likely to increase dramatically in value due to their scarcity. |
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 4, 2024 7:52:27 GMT
Yes let's all hope for an impoverished socialist Utopia where only party members are allowed to buy anything deemed to be luxurious such as bread. I take it you prefer an impoverished Tory Utopia then, where everyone (not just Party members) has to use food banks. |
|
|
|
Post by johntel on Jul 4, 2024 7:58:30 GMT
looks like a wind of change will be blowing through Scotland tonight! |
|
|
|
Post by shevii on Jul 4, 2024 8:00:17 GMT
If I remember rightly from last time don't we still have a traditional yougov poll on the day (which they might have dropped in favour of the MRP yesterday) and also Ipsos for the Evening Standard?
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,637
|
Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 8:03:25 GMT
domjg " I'm an arch EUphile as you know but I'm happy enough with Starmer's current stance. " I hope he's lying as well!
|
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 4, 2024 8:03:30 GMT
Well spotted that man, I wondered who would spot my deliberate mistake to see who was paying attention at the back 😀 Yougov 17 Handy it equated to the average! |
|
