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Post by bardin1 on Jul 3, 2024 23:10:13 GMT
Looking beyond election day, sources close to Douglas Alexander have been saying for the past few weeks that he will be the next Foreign Secretary ( if elected). I noticed that the speculation that Lammy will not be appointed Foreign Secretary has now reached the UK press especially when Starmer failed to offer strong support to Lammy when questioned about it. Seems unlikely butxStarmer will never have more scope to be ruthless than on Friday,July 5th Douglas Alexander Jeez - he's a horrible man - let's hope not |
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Post by bardin1 on Jul 3, 2024 23:13:37 GMT
I have assembled a rough list of potential Portillo moments and a few other notable moments with approximate timings. Feel free to amend… Midnight Richard Holden - Basildon and Billericay 2 am
Badenoch - North West Essex Rochdale - Galloway 3 amMark Harper - Forest of Dean Jeremy Hunt - Godalming and Ash Gillian Keegan - Chichester Alex Chalk - Cheltenham Penny Mordaunt - Portsmouth North Iain Duncan Smith - Chingford and Woodford Green Claire Coutinho - East Surrey Simon Hart - Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Robert Jenrick - Newark 3.30 am Grant Shapps - Welwyn Hatfield also Thangam Debbonaire (Labour) vs Greens in Bristol Central Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North 4 amRishi Sunak - Richmond (Yorks) Gavin Williamson - Stone, Great Wyrley, and Penkridge Mel Stride - Central Devon Priti Patel - Witham ( courtesy of PJ) James Cleverly - Braintree (v. important)
4.30 am Jacob Rees-Mogg - North East Somerset (thanks shevii !)and Reform candidates:Farage - Clacton Richard Tice - Boston and Skegness Lee Anderson - Ashfield 5 am. Liz Truss - South West Norfolk Liam Fox - North Somerset Thanks on the basis of this I have revised my plans and am going to sleep between 1am and 4am - after that it is popcorn parade |
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Post by guymonde on Jul 3, 2024 23:13:46 GMT
Fretting over at the Telegraph… “ Consider the following, all too possible apocalyptic scenario. On Friday morning, we could wake up to not just the greatest Labour landslide in history, but also to the Liberal Democrats as the official opposition. It would represent the Conservative Party’s greatest humiliation since its foundation in 1834. Sir Keir Starmer as Labour prime minister would face the clownish Ed Davey of Post Office scandal fame as leader of the opposition at Prime Minister’s Questions. The Tory leader, whoever he or she may end up being, would be left with two questions at the end of the session, by which time most viewers would have lost interest. The shadow chancellor would be a Lib Dem.
With Labour massively ahead in every poll, the real race is for second place in terms of seats in the House of Commons, and it could be nail-bitingly close, thanks to the Conservative Party’s epic implosion. Survation, the pollster, believes that there is only a 53 per cent chance the Tories will end up with more seats than the Lib Dems, a vanishingly small margin of error. YouGov predicts that the Tories will be just 30 seats ahead of Davey’s rabble.
Even if the Tories do edge it by a few seats – say 10 or 15 – their status as the official opposition, and the funding and privileges that come with it, would remain extremely precarious. The likely scale of the defeat will be crushing for remaining Tory MPs. Former top ministers will become obscure non-entities overnight. They will lose their ministerial cars and special advisers, and many will become the butt of jokes. Nobody will care what they say or do. Few will even return their calls.
The blame game will be savage. The Tory party will tear itself apart, perhaps even finally realising that it can no longer be the home of both Left-wing, high-tax, woke Remainers and Right-wing, low-tax, anti-woke Brexiteers. Some Tory MPs may join the Lib Dems, and others defect to Reform UK, further diminishing the party’s parliamentary numbers and potentially jeopardising its status as the official opposition.
Or take another scenario: what if a bunch of disillusioned Labour MPs eventually decide to quit their gargantuan group and join the Lib Dems instead? The Lib Dems could suddenly overtake the reduced Tory rump. The Conservative parliamentary group will need to be much larger than the Lib Dem one if they are to be confident that they can stay the official opposition for the remainder of the next Parliament. …. The Tories would be hammered when it came to the allocation of select committee positions. The Public Accounts Committee would automatically be chaired by the Lib Dems. What would pass for parliamentary scrutiny would amount to airing Left-wing grievances on repeat: Starmer would be attacked for not spending enough, for not rejoining the EU, for not punishing Israel for fighting evil terrorists, for not hiking taxes.
Centre-Right and free-market voices and positions would be almost entirely absent. What is left of the Tory Right and Nigel Farage and his small number of Reform MPs would do their best, but they would be shouting from the outside in. As far as the Civil Service would be concerned, the Overton window will have slammed shut, and the views of millions safely ignored.”Sounds marvellous. thanks to the DT for sharing their view of Utopia. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 23:16:14 GMT
I have assembled a rough list of potential Portillo moments and a few other notable moments with approximate timings. Feel free to amend… Thanks on the basis of this I have revised my plans and am going to sleep between 1am and 4am - after that it is popcorn parade Yes, that is an alternative: early to bed, then get up around 3 or 4 am to survey the scene… |
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Post by JohnC on Jul 3, 2024 23:18:24 GMT
I thought of JRM and we also need Priti Patel. (Btw I think Badenoch is safe, but not so sure about Richard Holden - fancy coming all the way from Durham to Essex to find a 'safe' seat and then losing it. You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh!).  Phil Moorhouse is claiming that Labour may challenge the result in the courts if Badenoch wins by a smaller margin than the number of missing postal ballots (2000+ apparently). Were the challenge to be successful, she would then not be able to sit in the Commons until a by-election was held (assuming she won). That could mean she would not be an MP while the Tories were holding their leadership contest and therefore be unable to participate. |
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Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 23:24:48 GMT
More pressure from prominent Democrats for Biden to go, personally I think he'll decide to call it a day in the next couple of weeks I hope so. But then who will take over? We don't want a Tory type tearing each other apart kind of thing. What we need is an old fashioned Tory men in grey suits kind of thing. Certainly Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsome are in the frame but I've also read Pete Buttigieg is quite fancied. The worry with the former two is their name recognition US wide - it's such a big country it's entirely possible that lots of voters don't know who they are. eor help us out here. I'm as at sea as anyone right now barbara! But I agree with you on the name recognition thing, and I think that's where the positive numbers for Michelle Obama come from - everyone knows her, relatively few people associate Bad Things with her, so she wins... but, she's not even a politician. She's a fantasy candidate, it's like polling on how The Rock would do against Trump. As for the others, some will have some recognition, but that's also not the same as political opinion. Many of us on here would have told a pollster we had a very favourable opinion of Nicola Sturgeon, or even that we would vote for her to be PM over certain other contenders, but in reality that view could have changed significantly once she started running a UK-wide campaign which spelled out what she'd actually do that impacted us. And that's the risk here. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 23:36:36 GMT
Just looking in to say that I have participated in an Opinium poll that came in at midnight. Presumably they will release the results some time tomorrow.
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Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 23:37:31 GMT
Terrible odds in a two horse race. The market has been wild today, mostly because of the focus on Harris. Biden's been from 4/1 to 12/1 and everywhere in between. Biden's price is reflecting the perceived chances of him beating Trump, but then multiplied by the uncertainty of whether he'll be the nominee anyway. So it's not a two horse race price in the usual sense, it's more like the odds on who's going to win the Cup when one semi-final has been played and the other hasn't. Looking at Betfair, the combination of the odds on who will be the nominee and who will win the GE imply punters think Trump is 60-75% likely to beat Biden if it's him on the ballot, very much similar odds that Hillary Clinton had of beating Trump in 2016. And it fits well with the polling - Trump is ahead, by small margins, in more places than he needs to win, which is obviously the position you'd prefer to be in. But as with 2016, a typical polling error in Biden's favour would still see him home at this stage. Just to follow up on this... the reason the focus has been on Harris today is that the Democratic Party appear to have come up with a ruse to bypass the expected chaos if Biden were to withdraw and the national Convention choose a new nominee. The solution is for the Convention to vote for Biden anyway, and for him to then withdraw, leaving the national party with the power to replace him as they would have had if eg a candidate died during the remainder of the campaign. The decision would then be made by essentially three hacks in a room - the Dem leaders from the Senate and House and the chair of the Dem Governors. Setting aside the optics of *that*, having already rigged the primary process so Biden would win unopposed, it is as steve pointed out earlier hard to see how they could find their way past nominating Kamala Harris, especially as she'd be the only candidate allowed to keep and spend all the money that Biden had raised, rather than starting again from scratch. How much this is a real way forward, and how much it's a cautionary tale intended to get support back behind Biden we'll see over the next couple of days. But if you wanted to shore up Biden's position then spelling out to people that if Biden does step aside, they won't get whoever their own preferred candidate is, they'll get Harris regardless, that seems like an effective tactic by itself. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 23:47:10 GMT
I hope so. But then who will take over? We don't want a Tory type tearing each other apart kind of thing. What we need is an old fashioned Tory men in grey suits kind of thing. Certainly Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsome are in the frame but I've also read Pete Buttigieg is quite fancied. The worry with the former two is their name recognition US wide - it's such a big country it's entirely possible that lots of voters don't know who they are. eor help us out here. I'm as at sea as anyone right now barbara ! But I agree with you on the name recognition thing, and I think that's where the positive numbers for Michelle Obama come from - everyone knows her, relatively few people associate Bad Things with her, so she wins... but, she's not even a politician. She's a fantasy candidate, it's like polling on how The Rock would do against Trump. As for the others, some will have some recognition, but that's also not the same as political opinion. Many of us on here would have told a pollster we had a very favourable opinion of Nicola Sturgeon, or even that we would vote for her to be PM over certain other contenders, but in reality that view could have changed significantly once she started running a UK-wide campaign which spelled out what she'd actually do that impacted us. And that's the risk here.
One can (and should) recognise and appreciate the political skills of a politician, without necessarily endorsing what they are trying to achieve. Of course, voters in England would have rejected having to pay a premium for taking resources from Scotland that they currently get dirt cheap. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 23:50:02 GMT
Just looking in to say that I have participated in an Opinium poll that came in at midnight. Presumably they will release the results some time tomorrow. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 23:52:24 GMT
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Post by eor on Jul 4, 2024 0:00:16 GMT
I'm as at sea as anyone right now barbara ! But I agree with you on the name recognition thing, and I think that's where the positive numbers for Michelle Obama come from - everyone knows her, relatively few people associate Bad Things with her, so she wins... but, she's not even a politician. She's a fantasy candidate, it's like polling on how The Rock would do against Trump. As for the others, some will have some recognition, but that's also not the same as political opinion. Many of us on here would have told a pollster we had a very favourable opinion of Nicola Sturgeon, or even that we would vote for her to be PM over certain other contenders, but in reality that view could have changed significantly once she started running a UK-wide campaign which spelled out what she'd actually do that impacted us. And that's the risk here.
One can (and should) recognise and appreciate the political skills of a politician, without necessarily endorsing what they are trying to achieve. Of course, voters in England would have rejected having to pay a premium for taking resources from Scotland that they currently get dirt cheap.On the contrary, I chose it quite carefully. The popular governor of California (or any other state) will be in the same position if elevated suddenly to the Democratic nomination - what they've advocated, won support for etc will have been based purely on the needs and politics of their state. And whilst their policies and skills may have made them extremely successful within that state, they won't necessarily translate to the much wider picture. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 4, 2024 0:01:28 GMT
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Post by oldnat on Jul 4, 2024 0:08:48 GMT
Since Sturgeon would never have tried to run a "UK-wide" campaign - any more than than Michelle O'Neill, or even Drakeford would have done, that's not a very sensible exemplar.
One can (and should) recognise and appreciate the political skills of a politician, without necessarily endorsing what they are trying to achieve. Of course, voters in England would have rejected having to pay a premium for taking resources from Scotland that they currently get dirt cheap. On the contrary, I chose it quite carefully. The popular governor of California (or any other state) will be in the same position if elevated suddenly to the Democratic nomination - what they've advocated, won support for etc will have been based purely on the needs and politics of their state. And whilst their policies and skills may have made them extremely successful within that state, they won't necessarily translate to the much wider picture.
Burnham maybe? |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 4, 2024 0:11:15 GMT
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Post by eor on Jul 4, 2024 0:20:43 GMT
On the contrary, I chose it quite carefully. The popular governor of California (or any other state) will be in the same position if elevated suddenly to the Democratic nomination - what they've advocated, won support for etc will have been based purely on the needs and politics of their state. And whilst their policies and skills may have made them extremely successful within that state, they won't necessarily translate to the much wider picture.
Burnham maybe?Yeah that's valid - and I did think of both Drakeford and Burnham, and obviously Sadiq Khan too. But Sturgeon seemed the best example because she also covered the Michelle Obama angle by being more universally known than the others. The point works with all of them - you can be successful in your polity without your skills and approach necessarily translating to success more widely, and more specifically what is popular in one polity won't necessarily be as popular in large areas of a much wider one. I would think the (any!) Governor of California could expect significant problems along those lines. Policies that get crossover appeal to California Republicans might even be detrimental in the Rust Belt, for example. |
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Post by ptarmigan on Jul 4, 2024 0:38:01 GMT
Fretting over at the Telegraph… “ Consider the following, all too possible apocalyptic scenario. On Friday morning, we could wake up to not just the greatest Labour landslide in history, but also to the Liberal Democrats as the official opposition. It would represent the Conservative Party’s greatest humiliation since its foundation in 1834. Sir Keir Starmer as Labour prime minister would face the clownish Ed Davey of Post Office scandal fame as leader of the opposition at Prime Minister’s Questions. The Tory leader, whoever he or she may end up being, would be left with two questions at the end of the session, by which time most viewers would have lost interest. The shadow chancellor would be a Lib Dem. Given they were an enthusiastic cheerleader for Johnson, endorsed Liz Truss and, well, everything else that's happened over the past 14 years, it's perhaps a tad rich for the Torygraph to be calling another party's leader "clownish"! Enjoyable tale of woe though. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2024 0:39:11 GMT
By way of light relief from the likely mental highs and lows to come today/tomorrow, I note that this very day, July 4th, 2024, marks the 100th birthday of Eva Marie Saint, ice cold blond heroine of 'North by Northwest', opposite the immortal Cary Grant. One of Hitch's finest, and one of my all-time favourite films. "He's dustin' crops where there ain't no crops!" Happy 100th, Eva. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eva_Marie_Saint |
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 4:37:01 GMT
Heave ho! Heave ho! Heave ….
Please happen. 🌹
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 4:42:38 GMT
Just looking in to say that I have participated in an Opinium poll that came in at midnight. Presumably they will release the results some time tomorrow. I'm pretty sure there is a rule against publishing polls on election day. |
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 4:49:59 GMT
I think our steve may be moonlighting for The Daily Star. Their entertaining front page says: "Election 2024 - A fond farewell to those self-entitled clowns, chancers, liars, wazzocks, cheats, sociopaths, scumbags and bellends who'll be out of work this time tomorrow after taking us for complete mugs these last 14 years - Toodle pip" and "Remember Bozo. Remember Partygate. Remember Lettuce Liz. Remember Rishi and D-Day. Remember to vote.” |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 4, 2024 4:53:07 GMT
Someone has stolen my Labour billboard from outside my house this evening. I will scour the area tomorrow and see it I can find it. Bastards. Got up 5.30 this morning and went and found it. Vandalised, but I shall nail it back together and put it up again. Not letting anti-democratic gits win. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 5:28:54 GMT
Happy defenestration day.
Even If you have to vote Labour remember that that which is being thrown out the window is far worse.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 5:36:10 GMT
c-a-r-f-r-e-wTelegraph "The Tory party will tear itself apart, perhaps even finally realising that it can no longer be the home of both Left-wing, high-tax, woke Remainers and Right-wing, low-tax, anti-woke Brexiteers" Another demented rant from that once proud newspaper showing they don't get it. Banging on about woke, brexit, remain isn't where the country is at or why the tories will lose. The two most important words they missed out and why the tories will lose so badly are competence and integrity. The vast majority of people are not voting because of woke issues or even brexit this time.They are voting against the Tories dishonesty and incompetence. It really should be back to basics again for the tories. But if they do tear themselves apart on issues the country isn't concerned about at the moment, I won't lose any sleep over it
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 5:46:06 GMT
Final Survation Poll of the 2024 General Election:(Really can't see Reform getting 13 MPs, think they'll struggle to get 2)
18 point Labour lead
Labour: 37.6%
Conservative: 19.9%
Reform UK: 17.0%
Liberal Democrats: 12.1%
Green Party: 7.2%
Scottish National Party: 3.0%
Plaid Cymru: 0.6%
Other: 2.4%
Based on telephone interviews of 1,679 respondents living in Great Britain aged 18+. Fieldwork was conducted between the 1st and 3rd of July 2024.
We have also updated our MRP model with the data from this final telephone poll. Changes below vs. the 2nd July 2024 update.
Probabilistic seat count:
Labour: 475 (-9)
Conservative: 64 (-)
Liberal Democrats: 60 (-1)
Scottish National Party: 13 (+3)
Reform UK: 13 (+6)
Green Party: 3 (-)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (+1)
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 5:49:28 GMT
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Post by neilj on Jul 4, 2024 5:49:35 GMT
Final Round up
Labour leads by pollster
20 Opinium
20 People Polling
19 Savanta
19 Lord Ashcroft
19 Techne
19 Redfield & Wilton
18 Survation
18 WeThink
17 Deltapoll
17 Whitestone Insight
17 BMG
15 Verian
15 JL Partners
14 More in Common
13 Norstat
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 5:56:38 GMT
I truly hope Starmer's movement of brexitanian hubris arrogance yesterday pushed enough votes to the lib dems to make a lib dem led opposition a reality.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jul 4, 2024 6:30:33 GMT
Final Round up Labour leads by pollster 20 Opinium 20 People Polling 19 Savanta 19 Lord Ashcroft 19 Techne 19 Redfield & Wilton 18 Survation 18 WeThink 17 Deltapoll 17 Whitestone Insight 17 BMG 15 Verian 15 JL Partners 14 More in Common 13 Norstat An average of 17.33%. The last time I did this it was around the 20% mark albeit this isn’t an apples and apples comparison - more pollsters etc. Even so, looks like a slight narrowing but too little too late. 👍🌹 |
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Post by pete on Jul 4, 2024 6:52:23 GMT
Voted 7.17 this morn (quick look at moby as I went into vote) Wanted to be first there but did one more look for my polling card.
Id check (imo) was/is a waste of time. My license I'm clean shaven but at mo have a beard and it was a cursory glance.
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