|
|
Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 21:56:47 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 21:58:21 GMT
It seems a perfectly reasonable position to take for someone not particularly interested in politics even if they do vote sometimes. The thing is though that your vote as an individual never makes a difference, there - as far as I know- has never been a general election where a constituency was won by one vote. So it makes no more sense to go out to vote if an election is close or if it seems a foregone conclusion. Of course, this assumes the decision whether to vote is made rationally. Which I susoect in most cases it isn’t, especially for people who are apolitical most of the time. I agree, but I give you: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Addison_(MP) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 22:03:11 GMT
Obscene:
“ Farage addressed the crowd in Clacton on immigration, saying: “How are you getting on for dentists in Clacton? Well then you should have come by dinghy.” He added: “This is unfair, this is wrong and this needs to stop and stop now.” He then went on to start a chant: “We want our country back.” “6
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 22:03:38 GMT
Didn't 'Professor Green' used to be an occasional poster on the old board? Perhaps I'm getting mixed up with Cluedo. Actually it was the Reverend Green and Professor Plum in Cluedo. A poll of characters revealed: Reverend Green - progressive vicar, long term Liberal Democrat Colonel Mustard - former staunch Tory, now voting for Reform Mrs Peacock - traditional Conservative, sticking with the party although she preferred that nice David Cameron Professor Plum - middle aged but woke academic, casting a tactical vote for Labour Miss Scarlett - young woman who thought Corbyn was great and has now switched to Greens in disgust at Starmer Mrs White - oppressed servant, voting Labour |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 22:07:47 GMT
I think it's a valid point to make. Labour seem nailed on to win a massive majority and no doubt there will be euphoria amongst party members and voters. But for instance let's suppose that Labour get 40% on a 60% turnout. That's 24% of the electorate. Tories got 29% in both 2017 and 2019. Blair got 30% in 1997. Before that it was unusual for the winning party to get less than 30%. It just seems to make sense for Labour to realise that despite their stonking majority they aren't actually very popular. I hope they don't get carried away. I don't recall the Conservatives ever holding back from inflicting their dogma on the the rest of us despite the same applying to them. If I recall correctly, the Thatcher landslide of 1983 was based on 42.4% of a 72% turnout, so about 30.5% of the electorate. On the back of that she took a wrecking ball to the post-war social democratic settlement. Labour will obviously have the power to mostly do what they like, as any other government with a solid majority does. But as with the LibDems it's not unreasonable to point out the difference between getting a fantastic return in seats because you're very popular and getting one because someone else's vote has collapsed freakishly. The main distinction being how transient it could be - many of the gains could be swept away next time without Labour (or the LibDems) disappointing a single person who voted for them. If anything, it feels like an encouragement for Labour to be as dynamic and transformative as possible while they have the moment. |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 22:11:51 GMT
Just a thought....Do people really wake up on election day and say, "Oh well, Labour are going to win, so I won't bother voting"? Really, do they? Probably not, but plenty might get to 7 or 8pm, knackered from their day, feel a bit guilty at the idea of not voting but then tell themselves "eh, it doesn't matter this year, Labour have won anyway" and not delay their dinner by 40 mins while they take it in turns to walk up to the polling station cos one of them has to stay with the kids. |
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,711
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 22:12:04 GMT
Fretting over at the Telegraph…
“Consider the following, all too possible apocalyptic scenario. On Friday morning, we could wake up to not just the greatest Labour landslide in history, but also to the Liberal Democrats as the official opposition. It would represent the Conservative Party’s greatest humiliation since its foundation in 1834. Sir Keir Starmer as Labour prime minister would face the clownish Ed Davey of Post Office scandal fame as leader of the opposition at Prime Minister’s Questions. The Tory leader, whoever he or she may end up being, would be left with two questions at the end of the session, by which time most viewers would have lost interest. The shadow chancellor would be a Lib Dem.
With Labour massively ahead in every poll, the real race is for second place in terms of seats in the House of Commons, and it could be nail-bitingly close, thanks to the Conservative Party’s epic implosion. Survation, the pollster, believes that there is only a 53 per cent chance the Tories will end up with more seats than the Lib Dems, a vanishingly small margin of error. YouGov predicts that the Tories will be just 30 seats ahead of Davey’s rabble.
Even if the Tories do edge it by a few seats – say 10 or 15 – their status as the official opposition, and the funding and privileges that come with it, would remain extremely precarious. The likely scale of the defeat will be crushing for remaining Tory MPs. Former top ministers will become obscure non-entities overnight. They will lose their ministerial cars and special advisers, and many will become the butt of jokes. Nobody will care what they say or do. Few will even return their calls.
The blame game will be savage. The Tory party will tear itself apart, perhaps even finally realising that it can no longer be the home of both Left-wing, high-tax, woke Remainers and Right-wing, low-tax, anti-woke Brexiteers. Some Tory MPs may join the Lib Dems, and others defect to Reform UK, further diminishing the party’s parliamentary numbers and potentially jeopardising its status as the official opposition.
Or take another scenario: what if a bunch of disillusioned Labour MPs eventually decide to quit their gargantuan group and join the Lib Dems instead? The Lib Dems could suddenly overtake the reduced Tory rump. The Conservative parliamentary group will need to be much larger than the Lib Dem one if they are to be confident that they can stay the official opposition for the remainder of the next Parliament.
….
The Tories would be hammered when it came to the allocation of select committee positions. The Public Accounts Committee would automatically be chaired by the Lib Dems. What would pass for parliamentary scrutiny would amount to airing Left-wing grievances on repeat: Starmer would be attacked for not spending enough, for not rejoining the EU, for not punishing Israel for fighting evil terrorists, for not hiking taxes.
Centre-Right and free-market voices and positions would be almost entirely absent. What is left of the Tory Right and Nigel Farage and his small number of Reform MPs would do their best, but they would be shouting from the outside in. As far as the Civil Service would be concerned, the Overton window will have slammed shut, and the views of millions safely ignored.”
|
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 22:18:47 GMT
Secondly, where Macron's guys have stayed in despite coming third, it's in a really small number of seats and whilst there are a couple of inexplicable ones, mostly they are three-way marginals where they could conceivably win in the second round if they can take more ROC vote than either of the others. Thanks- I make it just 12 seats so they must have mostly backed down from their threat of staying in the race if it was Melenchon's party as the challenger. Yeah, the issue is more the noises being made. Macron's PM has said people must vote for the Left against Le Pen regardless, but the Finance Minister and Macron himself have both taken the "everyone but Melenchon" line, with what I suspect are deliberately different stresses - the finance minister saying that the hard left are as reckless and dangerous for France's prosperity as the far right, and Macron saying that it's vital to vote LOC or Green, but that Melenchon's party is anti-Semitic (amongst other things) and morally unacceptable just as Le Pen is. I think it mostly reflects the coalition Macron built in the first place - the voters he took from the Gaullists would go Green or Socialist in a pinch, but they not going to vote hard left, they'll prefer to rely on their own party to keep RN in check in parliament, whereas the voters he took from the Socialists would take the hard left over Le Pen any day. |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 22:27:38 GMT
What it does illustrate is the infatuation some of the political class, especially on the right, currently have with American politics to the extent that they mindlessly import Trump style talking points, and campaigning techniques, into a UK context, which is then adopted without question by their client media.
Farage is another prime example.
Especially as the term "landslide" has been used for decades for very large overall majorities. It's understandable that they're casting about for a superlative, because to most people a "landslide" means a majority like the ones that Blair, Thatcher, Wilson etc achieved. In all of those the other main party was still clearly the party of Opposition, and it was always a question of how long it would take them to build back and be competitive again. Whereas the idea several MRPs are giving of Labour getting a majority of 250 of 300, winning so many seats that the Tories aren't even the second biggest party, that's on a completely different level to get across to people so a new word is needed. I agree the choice they've made has been a stupid one tho because as others have covered it's a technical term in many other countries that has no specific meaning here. Lakeland Lass - not sure you can blame Trump for this one  we imported their debates and their primaries (London?) long before Trump, and my Dem friends might well argue we exported Farage... |
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 22:28:32 GMT
My seat predictions from my part of the world: James Cleverly to retain Braintree - majority 2-3,000 Priti Patel to retain Witham - majority 500 - 1,500 Labour to gain Colchester Lib Dems at long, long last to finally gain Chelmsford. Con might even finish third. and sadly, I have to agree with Norbold, Farage to be returned as MP for Clacton I see, much to my surprise, that all polling companies are giving Harwich and North Essex to Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by pete on Jul 3, 2024 22:29:26 GMT
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 22:29:45 GMT
Umm c-a-r-f-r-e-w - remind me again why that is 'apocalyptic'. Sounds pretty good, especially: "free-market voices and positions would be almost entirely absent". We've had 45 years of that particular philosophy. |
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 22:30:51 GMT
Obscene: “ Farage addressed the crowd in Clacton on immigration, saying: “How are you getting on for dentists in Clacton? Well then you should have come by dinghy.” He added: “This is unfair, this is wrong and this needs to stop and stop now.” He then went on to start a chant: “We want our country back.” “6 Now now, Crofty. It's a well-known fact that we have several dental practices in Clacton that only treat illegal immigrants. They turn away good paying indigenous folks just so they can earn nothing by treating the boat people. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 22:31:08 GMT
My seat predictions from my part of the world: James Cleverly to retain Braintree - majority 2-3,000 Priti Patel to retain Witham - majority 500 - 1,500 Labour to gain Colchester Lib Dems at long, long last to finally gain Chelmsford. Con might even finish third. and sadly, I have to agree with Norbold, Farage to be returned as MP for Clacton I see, much to my surprise, that all polling companies are giving Harwich and North Essex to Labour. Yes, but it would have to be very close. I wouldn't care to make a prediction. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 22:33:11 GMT
eor "If anything, it feels like an encouragement for Labour to be as dynamic and transformative as possible while they have the moment." May God have mercy on our souls. I have had a sneak preview of the hidden manifesto. 1. Increase tax on North Sea oil and gas to 90%, driving all investment away. 2. Increase tax on 'wealthy' individuals to 50% capital gains and dividend tax. Forcing those folks to move their assets offshore and creating a net tax loss. 3. Stopping non-dom status, thus driving people with that status away and losing the country the money that they spend here. 4. Apply VAT to private school fees. Quite a few children go to private school because of bullying in the state sector. What will happen to them if their parents are forced to send them back there? 5. As in Wales, banning special offers on foods deemed by Big Brother to be bad for people. i.e. anything pleasurable. 6. Reducing drink-driving allowance to 0% in the blood thus driving even more pubs out of business and destroying more pleasure because pleasure is bad. 7. Banning smoking. Ditto reason. Also reducing tax take and increasing smuggling of dangerous fake brands. 8. Withdrawing from NATO and getting rid of nuclear deterrents in the belief that we are safe because the Russians and Chinese are such nice people. 9. Massive increase in Road Tax on petrol and diesel cars and Petrol and diesel duty. Because electric cars are wonderful and the proles won't be able to afford them, thus leaving the roads clear for the commissars to drive around in their chauffeur-driven vehicles and finishing off British car manufacturing. 10. Nationalising everything in sight, thus immediately making them unprofitable and becoming another drain on the state, and justifying even more punitive taxes on the rich and driving them out of the country.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,711
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 22:33:32 GMT
well I’m probably not the ideal bloke to ask PJ, as I find many, many things apocalyptic, and am always on the look out for new things to fret about. But yeah, I wouldn’t mind a dialling right down of the right-wing economic thing… |
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 22:34:06 GMT
The thing is though that your vote as an individual never makes a difference, there - as far as I know- has never been a general election where a constituency was won by one vote. So it makes no more sense to go out to vote if an election is close or if it seems a foregone conclusion. Of course, this assumes the decision whether to vote is made rationally. Which I susoect in most cases it isn’t, especially for people who are apolitical most of the time. I agree, but I give you: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Addison_(MP)Back in 2011, in a two seat Council ward in our District Council elections, we had a three-way tie for the two seats - the two long standing incumbent Independents and a Tory. After two recounts, they agreed to draw lots. One of the long standing Councillors for the ward lost out. |
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 22:35:37 GMT
I see, much to my surprise, that all polling companies are giving Harwich and North Essex to Labour. Yes, but it would have to be very close. I wouldn't care to make a prediction. I agree. If anything, I would have predicted a Tory win. |
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 22:39:28 GMT
Someone has stolen my Labour billboard from outside my house this evening. I will scour the area tomorrow and see it I can find it.
Bastards.
|
|
|
|
Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 22:43:14 GMT
eor "If anything, it feels like an encouragement for Labour to be as dynamic and transformative as possible while they have the moment." May God have mercy on our souls. I have had a sneak preview of the hidden manifesto. 1. Increase tax on North Sea oil and gas to 90%, driving all investment away. 2. Increase tax on 'wealthy' individuals to 50% capital gains and dividend tax. Forcing those folks to move their assets offshore and creating a net tax loss. 3. Stopping non-dom status, thus driving people with that status away and losing the country the money that they spend here. 4. Apply VAT to private school fees. Quite a few children go to private school because of bullying in the state sector. What will happen to them if their parents are forced to send them back there? 5. As in Wales, banning special offers on foods deemed by Big Brother to be bad for people. i.e. anything pleasurable. 6. Reducing drink-driving allowance to 0% in the blood thus driving even more pubs out of business and destroying more pleasure because pleasure is bad. 7. Banning smoking. Ditto reason. Also reducing tax take and increasing smuggling of dangerous fake brands. 8. Withdrawing from NATO and getting rid of nuclear deterrents in the belief that we are safe because the Russians and Chinese are such nice people. 9. Massive increase in Road Tax on petrol and diesel cars and Petrol and diesel duty. Because electric cars are wonderful and the proles won't be able to afford them, thus leaving the roads clear for the commissars to drive around in their chauffeur-driven vehicles and finishing off British car manufacturing. 10. Nationalising everything in sight, thus immediately making them unprofitable and becoming another drain on the state, and justifying even more punitive taxes on the rich and driving them out of the country. We can hope. |
|
|
|
Post by pete on Jul 3, 2024 22:43:15 GMT
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,638
|
Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 22:44:08 GMT
"Consider the following, all too possible apocalyptic scenario. On Friday morning, we could wake up to not just the greatest Labour landslide in history, but also to the Liberal Democrats as the official opposition. It would represent the Conservative Party’s greatest humiliation since its foundation in 1834"
Its lovely to see a good news story at the torygraph.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,711
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 22:50:29 GMT
Almost forgot! Daveywatch!! Today it was all about the cars. A yellow vintage car in Lacock… …And later, the Pink Cadillac at Harpendon… Attachments:
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 22:50:42 GMT
Ditto. But I wouldn't be surprised. Not too disappointed if they win a majority sufficient for a full parliament though? Not a bit. |
|
|
|
Post by eor on Jul 3, 2024 22:51:09 GMT
Betting latest: Joe Biden 10/1 to win the next US presidential election Terrible odds in a two horse race. The market has been wild today, mostly because of the focus on Harris. Biden's been from 4/1 to 12/1 and everywhere in between. Biden's price is reflecting the perceived chances of him beating Trump, but then multiplied by the uncertainty of whether he'll be the nominee anyway. So it's not a two horse race price in the usual sense, it's more like the odds on who's going to win the Cup when one semi-final has been played and the other hasn't. Looking at Betfair, the combination of the odds on who will be the nominee and who will win the GE imply punters think Trump is 60-75% likely to beat Biden if it's him on the ballot, very much similar odds that Hillary Clinton had of beating Trump in 2016. And it fits well with the polling - Trump is ahead, by small margins, in more places than he needs to win, which is obviously the position you'd prefer to be in. But as with 2016, a typical polling error in Biden's favour would still see him home at this stage. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 22:54:01 GMT
eor "If anything, it feels like an encouragement for Labour to be as dynamic and transformative as possible while they have the moment." May God have mercy on our souls. I have had a sneak preview of the hidden manifesto. 1. Increase tax on North Sea oil and gas to 90%, driving all investment away. 2. Increase tax on 'wealthy' individuals to 50% capital gains and dividend tax. Forcing those folks to move their assets offshore and creating a net tax loss. 3. Stopping non-dom status, thus driving people with that status away and losing the country the money that they spend here. 4. Apply VAT to private school fees. Quite a few children go to private school because of bullying in the state sector. What will happen to them if their parents are forced to send them back there? 5. As in Wales, banning special offers on foods deemed by Big Brother to be bad for people. i.e. anything pleasurable. 6. Reducing drink-driving allowance to 0% in the blood thus driving even more pubs out of business and destroying more pleasure because pleasure is bad. 7. Banning smoking. Ditto reason. Also reducing tax take and increasing smuggling of dangerous fake brands. 8. Withdrawing from NATO and getting rid of nuclear deterrents in the belief that we are safe because the Russians and Chinese are such nice people. 9. Massive increase in Road Tax on petrol and diesel cars and Petrol and diesel duty. Because electric cars are wonderful and the proles won't be able to afford them, thus leaving the roads clear for the commissars to drive around in their chauffeur-driven vehicles and finishing off British car manufacturing. 10. Nationalising everything in sight, thus immediately making them unprofitable and becoming another drain on the state, and justifying even more punitive taxes on the rich and driving them out of the country. We can hope. Yes let's all hope for an impoverished socialist Utopia where only party members are allowed to buy anything deemed to be luxurious such as bread. |
|
|
|
Post by RAF on Jul 3, 2024 22:54:07 GMT
"Consider the following, all too possible apocalyptic scenario. On Friday morning, we could wake up to not just the greatest Labour landslide in history, but also to the Liberal Democrats as the official opposition. It would represent the Conservative Party’s greatest humiliation since its foundation in 1834" Its lovely to see a good news story at the torygraph. Even if the LDs don't quite get there, they're still on track for their greatest electoral performance (in seats won) since 1923. (I know you know that already!) |
|
|
|
Post by mandolinist on Jul 3, 2024 22:54:23 GMT
It's The Sun wot jumped ship....https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/the-sun-support-labour-general-election
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 22:56:30 GMT
It seems Labour has given up on winning Braintree or Witham. B&W members being told to go to Harlow tomorrow and if they can't go there, then to Colchester.
|
|
|
|
Post by peterbell on Jul 3, 2024 22:59:57 GMT
I'm not going to amend as that's what I pay you for young man but couldn't see Jacob Rees Mogg on there. I thought of JRM and we also need Priti Patel. (Btw I think Badenoch is safe, but not so sure about Richard Holden - fancy coming all the way from Durham to Essex to find a 'safe' seat and then losing it. You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh!).  |
|
we imported their debates and their primaries (London?) long before Trump, and my Dem friends might well argue we exported Farage... 
