c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 20:57:14 GMT
I have assembled a rough list of potential Portillo moments and a few other notable moments with approximate timings. Feel free to amend… Midnight Richard Holden - Basildon and Billericay 2 am
Badenoch - North West Essex Rochdale - Galloway 3 amMark Harper - Forest of Dean Jeremy Hunt - Godalming and Ash Gillian Keegan - Chichester Alex Chalk - Cheltenham Penny Mordaunt - Portsmouth North Iain Duncan Smith - Chingford and Woodford Green Claire Coutinho - East Surrey Simon Hart - Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Robert Jenrick - Newark 3.30 am Grant Shapps - Welwyn Hatfield also Thangam Debbonaire (Labour) vs Greens in Bristol Central Jeremy Corbyn, Islington North 4 amRishi Sunak - Richmond (Yorks) Gavin Williamson - Stone, Great Wyrley, and Penkridge Mel Stride - Central Devon Priti Patel - Witham ( courtesy of PJ) James Cleverly - Braintree (v. important)
4.30 am Jacob Rees-Mogg - North East Somerset (thanks shevii !)and Reform candidates:Farage - Clacton Richard Tice - Boston and Skegness Lee Anderson - Ashfield 5 am. Liz Truss - South West Norfolk Liam Fox - North Somerset |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 20:59:44 GMT
True - and exposes the ridiculous concept that parties/candidates are "left" or "right" wing on all of the multitudinous dimensions of politics.
Those terms retained some meaning in the middle of the last century, but should probably now be consigned to the dustbin of redundant political labels.
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Post by chrisc on Jul 3, 2024 21:01:57 GMT
Just a thought....Do people really wake up on election day and say, "Oh well, Labour are going to win, so I won't bother voting"? Really, do they? It seems a perfectly reasonable position to take for someone not particularly interested in politics even if they do vote sometimes. The thing is though that your vote as an individual never makes a difference, there - as far as I know- has never been a general election where a constituency was won by one vote. So it makes no more sense to go out to vote if an election is close or if it seems a foregone conclusion. Of course, this assumes the decision whether to vote is made rationally. Which I susoect in most cases it isn’t, especially for people who are apolitical most of the time. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 21:02:28 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 21:03:00 GMT
It was me who set it up. I would say that rather than change a prediction it would be more interesting to make a second prediction so that we can see how views have changed during the campaign, not that it matters - it's only a bit of fun. (oh and to get mark's attention you need to put "@ admin" without the quotes or space, like this Mark .)
Fortunately, this board records changes to comments, so such malpractice will easily be discovered and opprobrium heaped on the sinners!Agree, which is why I quoted my earlier prediction in the same post I made my latest prediction in, so it's very easy to compare |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,711
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 21:03:26 GMT
Well the French elections second round isn’t for a week or two. (But you can do that list if you like!) |
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Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 21:04:12 GMT
And black woman as well. Ticks every box. Just for completeness, here’s the graphic showing how all the candidates polled According to the graphic, Kamala Harris would beat him too. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 21:04:24 GMT
JLP
NEW: Final
@restispolitics
/ JLP voting intention poll, July 2nd - 3rd 2024
*Labour lead at 15 points, Reform recovers to close to previous peak*
Change on weekend in brackets
LAB: 38% (-1)
CON: 23% (-1)
REF: 17% (+1)
LDEM: 13% (+3)
GRN: 5% (-)
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Post by chrisc on Jul 3, 2024 21:05:05 GMT
Winning being the point of the exercise in both football and politics, hence why it was a silly comment.
Sadly, in party election contests, there is no referee to penalise fouls, which is why politics is an infinitely dirtier game.I have only one thing to add to this. VAR !!! (which unfortunately in the US means the Supreme Court, which didn’t work out too well for Al Gore) |
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jul 3, 2024 21:08:34 GMT
I keep hearing about a 'supermajority'. I thought it was a word with a specific meaning in US politics. What does it mean in a UK GE context? It appears to be being used to mean 'very big'. But what is that, over 100, 200, 300 or what? it is entirely meaningless in a Westminster context. What it does illustrate is the infatuation some of the political class, especially on the right, currently have with American politics to the extent that they mindlessly import Trump style talking points, and campaigning techniques, into a UK context, which is then adopted without question by their client media.
Farage is another prime example.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 21:13:40 GMT
It seems a perfectly reasonable position to take for someone not particularly interested in politics even if they do vote sometimes. The thing is though that your vote as an individual never makes a difference, there - as far as I know- has never been a general election where a constituency was won by one vote.So it makes no more sense to go out to vote if an election is close or if it seems a foregone conclusion. Of course, this assumes the decision whether to vote is made rationally. Which I susoect in most cases it isn’t, especially for people who are apolitical most of the time.
"1910 Election for the 36th Congressional District of New York
In the only Congressional election to have been determined by a single vote, Democratic challenger Charles Bennett Smith, a newspaper editor by trade and an advocate of Prohibition, faced Republican incumbent Rep. D.S. Alexander. According to a Nov. 20, 1910, New York Times article, after the initial counting of the returns, the two candidates were tied at 20,684. But the election board noticed an error in the total on a tally sheet from one district. When it was corrected, Smith received the single vote needed to elect him." |
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Post by johntel on Jul 3, 2024 21:13:50 GMT
Betting latest:
Joe Biden 10/1 to win the next US presidential election
There aren't any markets for precise number of seats won by Con and Lib Dems - but the odds suggest that Con will be <100 and Lib Dem will be >60.
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Post by RAF on Jul 3, 2024 21:19:01 GMT
it is entirely meaningless in a Westminster context. What it does illustrate is the infatuation some of the political class, especially on the right, currently have with American politics to the extent that they mindlessly import Trump style talking points, and campaigning techniques, into a UK context, which is then adopted without question by their client media.
Farage is another prime example.
Especially as the term "landslide" has been used for decades for very large overall majorities. |
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Post by shevii on Jul 3, 2024 21:20:12 GMT
I have assembled a rough list of potential Portillo moments and a few other notable moments with approximate timings. Feel free to amend… I'm not going to amend as that's what I pay you for young man but couldn't see Jacob Rees Mogg on there. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 21:24:34 GMT
I have assembled a rough list of potential Portillo moments and a few other notable moments with approximate timings. Feel free to amend… I'm not going to amend as that's what I pay you for young man but couldn't see Jacob Rees Mogg on there. oops. Amended! (It’s due around 4.30am) |
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Post by alec on Jul 3, 2024 21:26:31 GMT
Labour seem to be drifting down. Get the feeling these MRP polls may e over egging it a bit.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 21:28:16 GMT
I have assembled a rough list of potential Portillo moments and a few other notable moments with approximate timings. Feel free to amend… I'm not going to amend as that's what I pay you for young man but couldn't see Jacob Rees Mogg on there. I thought of JRM and we also need Priti Patel. (Btw I think Badenoch is safe, but not so sure about Richard Holden - fancy coming all the way from Durham to Essex to find a 'safe' seat and then losing it. You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh!). |
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Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 21:30:00 GMT
I keep hearing about a 'supermajority'. I thought it was a word with a specific meaning in US politics. What does it mean in a UK GE context? It appears to be being used to mean 'very big'. But what is that, over 100, 200, 300 or what?
If considering just the technical definition of the term, the concept of a supermajority does not apply to UK parliament.” Thanks for the explanation. It's what I thought. But I still don't know what people think they mean when they apply it to the GE. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 21:30:34 GMT
Labour seem to be drifting down. Get the feeling these MRP polls may e over egging it a bit. Not if the votes are going to the Lib Dems in their target seats. If it is a tactical voting effect, it could make things worse for the Conservatives. Still think the Tories will get at least 120 seats though. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 21:32:48 GMT
Didn't 'Professor Green' used to be an occasional poster on the old board? Perhaps I'm getting mixed up with Cluedo. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 21:33:01 GMT
Betting latest: Joe Biden 10/1 to win the next US presidential election Terrible odds in a two horse race. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 21:38:05 GMT
...
If considering just the technical definition of the term, the concept of a supermajority does not apply to UK parliament.” Thanks for the explanation. It's what I thought. But I still don't know what people think they mean when they apply it to the GE. Do they mean 60% or two-thirds of the seats, even though it doesn’t mean so much here? |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 21:39:48 GMT
By the way, another month (June) slipped by in my "oppositions leads" analysis. I have now added it and it will be the final one. This parliament will become another just statistic in the table. One reason I took a while to get round to updating it was the ridiculous number of polls - I made it 112. Do we really need 112 polls in one month? I think not.
No one will be greatly surprised to learn the Labour lead slipped a little - by about 2%, but remains towering. My model predicts we will have a change of government after tomorrow's voting. I am reasonably confident my prediction will be proved right!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 21:41:36 GMT
I'm not going to amend as that's what I pay you for young man but couldn't see Jacob Rees Mogg on there. I thought of JRM and we also need Priti Patel. Done (due around 4 am) 👍 |
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Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 21:43:04 GMT
It didn’t say it’s a worse result than losing. it’s saying that they are winning despite scoring fewer goals than a team that lost before. Winning being the point of the exercise in both football and politics, hence why it was a silly comment. I think it's a valid point to make. Labour seem nailed on to win a massive majority and no doubt there will be euphoria amongst party members and voters. But for instance let's suppose that Labour get 40% on a 60% turnout. That's 24% of the electorate. Tories got 29% in both 2017 and 2019. Blair got 30% in 1997. Before that it was unusual for the winning party to get less than 30%. It just seems to make sense for Labour to realise that despite their stonking majority they aren't actually very popular. I hope they don't get carried away. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 21:45:49 GMT
Starmer's ambivalence and prevarication (to put it politely) on transgender rights obviously raises questions about his reliability as a supporter of the LBTQ community as a whole. Starmer's open letter in Attitude in which he attempts to establish his credentials with the community has been published but with qualifications from the publisher. It seems that Starmer can agree to meet a billionaire author very quickly but cannot respond to a request to meet the mother of a young transgender person who commited suicide. www.attitude.co.uk/news/keir-starmer-attitude-letter-469078/
Swinney - “Ministers took a decision to invite a multidisciplinary team led by the chief medical officer to consider these issues.
I think these issues should be considered in a clinical context – and by clinical, I mean a multidisciplinary clinical approach because there's a lot of disciplines required to be involved here.
Obviously the output of the work that has been led by the chief medical officer will be made public and that will be the substance of the approach that we take.
Now, the focus of that work by the chief medical officer and the multidisciplinary team must be comprehensive to make sure that we take the right decisions, and I'm confident that's exactly the approach that will be taken.”
Streeting - "the next Labour government will work to implement the expert recommendations of the Cass review.”
Where there are expert disagreements on the research, I have a preference for governments to undertake balanced consideration before rushing to implement a particular set of recommendations - possiby for populist political advantage. |
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Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 21:46:15 GMT
Well, obviously there is no chance of the UK rejoining the EU in the next 10 years, since the incoming PM has declared that the UK will never do so!
Were the incoming PM to have declared an intention to rejoin "when the time was right" (positions of SNP, SGP, Alliance, Plaid for their polities - or GP of E&W for theirs) or to have a "longer term ambition" to do so (Lib-Dems) or to have ambitions to join the Customs Union and Single Market at some point, then the door would have been left open. Starmer chooses to slam it shut so that even preliminary moves towards reunification cannot start until the mid 2030s. Even if steve was to become PM on Friday, there would be no chance of the UK joining the EU within 10 years. Firstly, its not in any GB wide party's manifesto, so there is no mandate at this election. So assuming a mandate was sought at the next election - say in 2028 - you would then have four years of negotiations with the EU before you had terms that could be put to a referendum - which would likely be after the following GE in 2032 or 2033. Therefore the referendum is held in say 2034. Assuming a yes vote results, final negotiations with the EU follow and then accession after say 2 years, so rejoin in 2036 - 12 years from now. And that is the most optimistic scenario. It also assumes that they'd want us back. Why would they? Apart from the money we'd provide of course. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 21:47:48 GMT
Winning being the point of the exercise in both football and politics, hence why it was a silly comment. I think it's a valid point to make. Labour seem nailed on to win a massive majority and no doubt there will be euphoria amongst party members and voters. But for instance let's suppose that Labour get 40% on a 60% turnout. That's 24% of the electorate. Tories got 29% in both 2017 and 2019. Blair got 30% in 1997. Before that it was unusual for the winning party to get less than 30%. It just seems to make sense for Labour to realise that despite their stonking majority they aren't actually very popular. I hope they don't get carried away. I don't recall the Conservatives ever holding back from inflicting their dogma on the the rest of us despite the same applying to them. If I recall correctly, the Thatcher landslide of 1983 was based on 42.4% of a 72% turnout, so about 30.5% of the electorate. On the back of that she took a wrecking ball to the post-war social democratic settlement. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 21:48:05 GMT
Didn't 'Professor Green' used to be an occasional poster on the old board? Perhaps I'm getting mixed up with Cluedo. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 21:51:16 GMT
Winning being the point of the exercise in both football and politics, hence why it was a silly comment. I think it's a valid point to make. Labour seem nailed on to win a massive majority and no doubt there will be euphoria amongst party members and voters. But for instance let's suppose that Labour get 40% on a 60% turnout. That's 24% of the electorate. Tories got 29% in both 2017 and 2019. Blair got 30% in 1997. Before that it was unusual for the winning party to get less than 30%. It just seems to make sense for Labour to realise that despite their stonking majority they aren't actually very popular. I hope they don't get carried away. |
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