pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 17:15:59 GMT
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Post by pete on Jul 3, 2024 17:16:58 GMT
Just for my own personal fun, I predicted a Labour and Reform collapse a Tory surge and gave the parties (Electoral Calculus)
Con 38% 303
Lab 32% 262
LD 11% 47
Gr 4% 2
Ref 4% 0
and it gave Con 23 short of a majority. They really are screwed as nobody would stand with them.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 17:17:26 GMT
Quick back of the fag packet calculation shows Labour lead has dropped on average to around 18% today Blair's lead in 1997 was around 13%. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 17:19:47 GMT
I suspect there will come a time when, "When the Facts Change I Change My Mind." indeed he’s already done that: he used to be in favour of rejoin. (Ups the ante a bit though, to argue as if he doesn’t expect the facts to change in his lifetime…) Meanwhile… just heard a guy from More in Common who was just on Times Radio, says that he’d be a little bit more reticent on the chance that Labour are going to do better than 1997: he’d put it at about an 80% chance, rather than 99%. (They’ve not had as big leads in their polling) He also said that in the focus groups, people were desperate for a change, but people were not confident that anyone was going to make a difference. Still, they feel it’s worth “rolling the dice” It was also said that there are about fifteen potential “Portillo moments” |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on Jul 3, 2024 17:21:42 GMT
It says even if he wins his seat he will go back to fincial work as well as being an MP. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 17:25:11 GMT
Bit disappointed that the Labour Party are sending the Hereford massive over to Redditch tomorrow to help get the vote out there
Suggests they've given up on Hereford Disappointing as the tactical voting site shows they're only 3 points behind the tories
Labour are showing a 7 point lead in Redditch
I suppose they want to make certain of the win in Redditch
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 17:27:22 GMT
Bit disappointed that the Labour Party are sending the Hereford massive over to Redditch tomorrow to help get the vote out there Suggests they've given up on Hereford Disappointing as the tactical voting site shows they're only 3 points behind the tories Labour are showing a 7 point lead in Redditch I suppose they want to make certain of the win in Redditch Gloryhunters. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 17:30:14 GMT
Comparison of the three MRP polls out today, not that much between them
YouGov: Labour majority 212
(Lab 431 seats, Con 102 seats)
More In Common: Labour majority 210
(Lab 430 seats, Con 126 seats)
Focaldata: Labour majority 238
(Lab 444 seats, Con 108 seats)
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Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 17:31:04 GMT
An interesting statistic from the YouGov poll: 89 seats are tossups, including four in ten of those in which the Conservatives are currently ahead but fewer than one in ten of those in which Labour are ahead/ So Tories more at risk than Labour in the close seats.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 17:32:57 GMT
Bit disappointed that the Labour Party are sending the Hereford massive over to Redditch tomorrow to help get the vote out there Suggests they've given up on Hereford Disappointing as the tactical voting site shows they're only 3 points behind the tories Labour are showing a 7 point lead in Redditch I suppose they want to make certain of the win in Redditch Gloryhunters. Ummm...they're going to Redditch to show the locals how it's done. Just hope the car park is big enough to park all the tractors and there's plenty of scrumpy available, or there'll be trouble 😀 |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 17:34:01 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 17:36:09 GMT
Stanley Johnson has said he will be making a “tactical” vote for the Liberal Democrats in Thursday’s general election.
The former Conservative MEP – who is still a party member – told The Telegraph he wanted to “boost” the Lib Dems in his constituency because they were the only party talking about the environment and “rebuilding bridges” with the European Union.”
Telegraph
also…
“The only prospective candidate who could beat Donald Trump in the presidential election is Michelle Obama, according to a new poll.
The former first lady, 60, would beat Trump, 78, by ten points, a Reuters and Ipsos survey showed, with no other possible candidates beating the former president.”
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Post by mercian on Jul 3, 2024 17:39:27 GMT
I don't know if we've moved on from leaflets but we had two today from different Independents. One was very unusual. Here's an extract:
"Should you elect me, I shall appoint a constituency Steward and he shall form a jury.
...
You will decide my policies. You will dictate my vote."
It seems an interesting idea. I don't suppose the candidate will get more than a handful of votes though.
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jul 3, 2024 17:40:13 GMT
Well we all know what that means
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Post by barbara on Jul 3, 2024 17:40:36 GMT
I still believe as I said some weeks ago that he will be remembered as a great prime minister. |
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Post by barbara on Jul 3, 2024 17:44:17 GMT
Stanley Johnson has said he will be making a “tactical” vote for the Liberal Democrats in Thursday’s general election.
The former Conservative MEP – who is still a party member – told The Telegraph he wanted to “boost” the Lib Dems in his constituency because they were the only party talking about the environment and “rebuilding bridges” with the European Union.” Telegraph also… “ The only prospective candidate who could beat Donald Trump in the presidential election is Michelle Obama, according to a new poll.
The former first lady, 60, would beat Trump, 78, by ten points, a Reuters and Ipsos survey showed, with no other possible candidates beating the former president.” And black woman as well. Ticks every box. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 17:46:05 GMT
I don't know if we've moved on from leaflets but we had two today from different Independents. One was very unusual. Here's an extract: "Should you elect me, I shall appoint a constituency Steward and he shall form a jury. ... You will decide my policies. You will dictate my vote." It seems an interesting idea. I don't suppose the candidate will get more than a handful of votes though. Is he aware that the great British public when asked to select the name of a scientific research vessel voted for it to be called Boaty McBoatface? |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 17:50:02 GMT
Stanley Johnson has said he will be making a “tactical” vote for the Liberal Democrats in Thursday’s general election.
The former Conservative MEP – who is still a party member – told The Telegraph he wanted to “boost” the Lib Dems in his constituency because they were the only party talking about the environment and “rebuilding bridges” with the European Union.” Telegraph also… “ The only prospective candidate who could beat Donald Trump in the presidential election is Michelle Obama, according to a new poll.
The former first lady, 60, would beat Trump, 78, by ten points, a Reuters and Ipsos survey showed, with no other possible candidates beating the former president.” And black woman as well. Ticks every box. Just for completeness, here’s the graphic showing how all the candidates polled Attachments:
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 17:50:41 GMT
As far as I am concerned Starmer's position on the European union is akin to the Attlee government on the day before the election ruling out the NHS for Clement's life time.
The Brexit Labour government " things could get better but we'll settle for a bit less shit than the last five years".
People here obviously look forward to getting rid of the Tories as do I, but I dearly hope the lib dems manage second , someone needs to offer optimism and a progressive alternative and there's no one else to do it.
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 17:52:19 GMT
Not an ideal analogy to choose, given Yoda was first seen living in exile in a swamp and then suddenly expired for no obvious reason. On the other hand Jabba was done in by one of his concubines, which does seem more of a possibility with Trump. |
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Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 17:53:21 GMT
So, final round-up from Clacton. It looks odds on for Farage now. You can smell the boiling gammon in the air with a large helping of tripe.
We were doing ok at one time but the Labour Party's decision to withdraw Jovan from the constituency has had a big effect on our campaign. I am not saying he would have won, but he was becoming very well-known around Clacton and was gaining a high profile locally as a friendly and colourful personality. His withdrawal has affected the campaign in two ways. 1. People thinking he is not even standing now or that Labour have withdrawn support from him for some undisclosed reason. 2. He is just not around - we had to cancel a public meeting in the Town Hall due for last Monday for example. At the time of his withdrawal, I would say there was more of a three-way fight with Farage in the mid 30s and Jovan and the Vicar in Bread on probably the high 20s. Jovan's lost votes seem to have translated mostly to Farage. I suppose it's the anti-Tory vote at work - the just wanting them out syndrome. So the Vicar is probably still about where he was, but Jovan has dropped back to low - mid 20s.
This afternoon, I received my orders from Regional Office (along with all Clacton members) about what we are to do tomorrow. We have been told to vote for Jovan first thing and then go off to Colchester to help out there all day. Yeh, right, as if (m)any members are going to do that. The Labour Party High Command have a lot to answer for here. Not confronting Farage, even if we were always going to lose, has turned off many of our local members.Two good activists have already resigned from the Party in protest and a number have said they will once the election is over, but will support Jovan until then.
I have personally had eight Reform Party election leaflets through my door during this election - four by post, four by hand. Many others I have spoken to say the same. There have also been four weeks of continuous front page coverage for Reform in our local newspaper. The last three weeks have been paid for wrap-arounds (may yet still be one tomorrow - our paper comes out on Thursdays) plus four weeks ago, when Farage first stood, the editorial content of the front page was a big picture of Farage and the rally he held at the front of The Pier ("for other candidates, see inside: page 246 or something"). I think their expenses will need to be looked at. One good thing about all this however has been that a number of people I know in other walks of life, not political, have said they are really fed up with Farage's name being rammed down their throats all the time and won't be voting for him.
So, it looks likely Nigel Paul Farage will be our new MP come Friday. No doubt he will be assiduous in attending to constituency affairs and will be seen available to all constituents 24 hours a day, seven days a week....
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Post by shevii on Jul 3, 2024 17:54:57 GMT
Comparison of the three MRP polls out today, not that much between them YouGov: Labour majority 212 (Lab 431 seats, Con 102 seats) More In Common: Labour majority 210 (Lab 430 seats, Con 126 seats) Focaldata: Labour majority 238 (Lab 444 seats, Con 108 seats) I think that's the way we need to read the MRPs and they are relatively consistent. We can definitely contest individual seat predictions where "special circumstances" exit because I don't see how they have enough of a sample to judge and I would surprised if it was purely down to demographics how they even have picked up a Green surge in their target seats beyond their demographic UNS. Beyond those types of thing though I think there is a good chance of accuracy in the overall seat totals. MRP will definitely be better than UNS and especially over the last 10 years or so where there have been big variations in certain seats from the UNS, mainly as a result of brexit. So I think they can pick up patterns in Red Wall, Blue Wall etc, maybe some patterns on things such as the Muslim vote but they cannot pick up an individual seat that may be straying from the norm. Harder for Scotland but they may be able to assess incumbency and best placed to beat the Tories or best Unionist option if there is some tactical voting on that basis. I think it will be the same for the exit poll. We'll know the rough result, although we already know this anyway I think other than turnout tweaking things a bit. What I doubt we will know, given they won't have sampled a lot of seats this time, is some of the individual constituency results. If Labour are eating deep into Tory territory they won't have sampled those previous safe Tory seats before, ditto Greens (or at least their two Tory targets) and independents. I think the exit poll sample comparison with last time is mainly aimed at wards in marginal seats, but this time the marginal seats are totally different to normal. |
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Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 17:56:42 GMT
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Post by jib on Jul 3, 2024 18:00:21 GMT
Quick back of the fag packet calculation shows Labour lead has dropped on average to around 18% today Still good enough for a good majority. Expect some Reform will move back to Tory, but confident now of 100+ majority. Can't quite believe we're on the cusp of kicking the Tories out, that exit poll from 2015 still strong in the memory! |
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Post by mark61 on Jul 3, 2024 18:02:02 GMT
Here we are on Election eve! Who will be happiest with what they find under the Tree tomorrow? I think I am most surprised at the failure of the Conservatives to stage any discernible rally during the Campaign, but when even your usually faithful hacks like Dan Hodges describes your efforts as the 'worst campaign ever' on a daily basis perhaps it isn't surprising after all.
Labour drifting down a few points is the likely to be a result of a cautious and uninspiring Campaign, the effect of tactical voting, and the big lead giving erstwhile supporters license to vote for others.
I would be interested to hear what our posters North of the border think the likely share is in Scotland, I suspect the SNP will do better than the MRP's predict.
The Lib Dems, I have to say I have rather warmed to Ed Davey during the Campaign, and it seems to me that there is clear evidence of an unspoken non-aggression pact between Labour and the Lib-Dems, this does seem to be about taking a once in a generation chance to deal a body blow to the Conservatives. I think Sir Keir and Sir Ed have a respect for each other, it would be interesting to see how that would play out in Parliament. So what present do I want most on July 5th, Well a big Labour majority would be the Scalextric , but Lib Dems as the Opposition would be The Raving Bonkers game, and Farage or Anderson not winning The Chocolate Orange in the Stocking!
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 18:07:12 GMT
Polldrums in NI, as they vote in an election to send (some) representatives overseas. bit like EU elections then |
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Post by matt126 on Jul 3, 2024 18:07:27 GMT
An interesting statistic from the YouGov poll: 89 seats are tossups, including four in ten of those in which the Conservatives are currently ahead but fewer than one in ten of those in which Labour are ahead/ So Tories more at risk than Labour in the close seats. A lot of the toss ups where tories marginally ahead are in East Anglia so what happens there will determine if Tories get less than 100 |
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Post by lefthanging on Jul 3, 2024 18:09:18 GMT
I live in hope. Will be mighty annoying if he hangs on by a small margin and it turns out that the number of votes cast for Count Binface / the monster raving loonies / etc. would have been enough to stop him (seriously I'm a bit disappointed they've chosen to stand!) |
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Post by jib on Jul 3, 2024 18:11:13 GMT
My prediction:
Labour 381
Conservative 178
SNP 33
Lib Dems 33
PC 4
Reform 1
Green 1
Spkr 1
(NI= 18)
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 18:15:34 GMT
For any wondering about green energy plans…
“Britain’s march of the wind turbines is about to resume. Ten years after the rural backlash that forced David Cameron’s government to cancel onshore wind developments, Ed Miliband is planning to do battle in the shires once again.
If, as expected, Labour wins the election and he becomes energy secretary, one of his first acts will be to rewrite the planning rules that have blocked wind farm developments in England.
“Our mission involves doubling onshore wind, trebling solar, quadrupling offshore wind and backing hydrogen CCS [carbon capture and storage], nuclear and other clean energy technologies,” he told a recent conference of wind farm developers.
“We need all of these technologies…That’s why we would get started in our first weeks in office by overturning the Conservative onshore wind ban in England.”
In a campaign marked by criticism that Labour has failed to be clear on its plans, Miliband’s directness could be seen as refreshing.”
Telegraph, who perhaps didn’t share my enthusiasm for the above: their headline was “Ed Miliband prepares to wage a wind-powered war on the shires”
(also says Labour planning to delay the summer recess to get stuff done)
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