c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 16:29:24 GMT
|
|
|
Post by eotw on Jul 3, 2024 16:33:55 GMT
Saw this question on Twitter - a good what if
"Does anyone at all have any idea how the Official Opposition party would be determined if two parties are in a tie for second most seats? I've been asking around but nobody seems to know."
|
|
shevii
Member
Posts: 2,245
Member is Online
|
Post by shevii on Jul 3, 2024 16:34:40 GMT
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 16:35:56 GMT
pjw1961 I see your boys gave Surrey a slightly better game than we did. In the sense that you did at least require them to bat twice! Yes, it was a 2017 style victory - a gallant second place.
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,635
|
Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 16:36:23 GMT
The scum backs Labour while spouting a load of old cobblers but given starmer's absurd arrogance over the U.K.'s relationship with the European union seems a match made in heaven.
|
|
|
Post by chrisc on Jul 3, 2024 16:38:13 GMT
For the cycling fans…* “ Mark Cavendish made history with a record-breaking 35th stage win at the Tour de France, sprinting to victory in Saint-Vulbas.
Having missed out on the chance to contest the sprint finish on Stage 3 after being caught up in a crash, Cavendish surged to victory on Stage 5, surviving a chaotic dash to the line by showing all of his veteran nous.
Cavendish surpassed the great Eddy Merckx as the outright record-holder at the French Grand Tour having drawn alongside the Belgian in 2021.” www.independent.co.uk/sport/cycling/mark-cavendish-tour-de-france-record-stage-5-result-b2573403.html* (well, assuming there are some cycling fans! I know some people like cycling themselves on here**, but don’t know if they follow competitive cycling…) ** obviously no big amps to cart around I was going to post this but didn’t want to send it out in case of spoilers for people watching the highlights. An amazing achievement. Hard to see how it will ever be beaten. And couldn't happen to a nicer hard working person. Not that I’ve ever met him personally, but no one seems to have a bad word for him.
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 16:38:30 GMT
I see Starmer was in the Carmarthen seat this morning tending to suggest things are tight there between Labour and Plaid. Do leaders visiting marginal seats really make a difference? might their visits at times even make things worse?
|
|
|
Post by matt126 on Jul 3, 2024 16:41:52 GMT
Saw this question on Twitter - a good what if "Does anyone at all have any idea how the Official Opposition party would be determined if two parties are in a tie for second most seats? I've been asking around but nobody seems to know." Not sure but can Parties make a pact to create an alliance for opposition if the numbers are very close. . Ie Green+ Lib Dem or Con + Reform
|
|
|
Post by chrisc on Jul 3, 2024 16:43:00 GMT
just as well ... is it possible to score an own goal during a penalty shootout ? I once saw a penalty shoot-out where the ball bounced from the crossbar, onto the back of the goalie’s head and ended up in the net. I think the goal was allowed, but who scored it? It counts (even in a penalty shoot out). In a penalty shoot out goals scored don’t count for personal statistics so it wouldn’t matter. In normal time it would be classed as an own goal.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,380
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 16:44:40 GMT
Have updated my prediction on the prediction thread just for info. I assume it's allowed I don't think it should be on the evening before actual voting. We could all do that. It's gaming the thing a bit if you'd like my opinion. Okay, didn't think it would be a problem as 3 other predictions have been made in the last 3 days, one at 9am this morning But in view of the objection will stick with my original prediction
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 16:49:04 GMT
Terms of endearment between Mrs H and I in our household.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,380
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 16:49:16 GMT
YouGov's final MRP polls show Labour on course for 212-seat majority.
Labour - 431 Conservatives - 102 Lib Dems - 72 SNP - 18 Reform - 3 Greens - 2
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,380
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 16:50:18 GMT
We Think
🔴 Lab 41% (-1) 🔵 Con 23% (+3) ⚪ Ref 15% (-1) 🟠 LD 11% (+1) 🟢 Green 7% (NC) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) 🟣 Ind 2% (NC)
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 16:50:53 GMT
pjw1961 I see your boys gave Surrey a slightly better game than we did. In the sense that you did at least require them to bat twice! Yes, it was a 2017 style victory - a gallant second place. Yes I thought that too when I saw the scorecard for the match. If Surrey hadn't got as many runs and wickets as they did you would have walloped them.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2024 16:51:20 GMT
Sky news constituency breakdown nice to read. Doesn’t look as though Mordaunt will be wielding any more swords for example.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,380
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 16:51:34 GMT
Three MRPs so far today, with the following Scotland seat results:
Lab: 33/32/35 SNP: 16/18/15 LD: 5/4/5 Con: 3/3/2
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,380
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 16:52:49 GMT
Sky news constituency breakdown nice to read. Doesn’t look as though Mordaunt will be wielding any more swords for example. Booo, give us Sunak
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 16:53:13 GMT
We Think 🔴 Lab 41% (-1) 🔵 Con 23% (+3) ⚪ Ref 15% (-1) 🟠 LD 11% (+1) 🟢 Green 7% (NC) 🟡 SNP 2% (-1) 🟣 Ind 2% (NC) These are better figures for the Tories, but only in the sense that they are an improvement on their polling of a week or so ago. Historically though, they are still utterly calamitous for them.
|
|
|
Post by Rafwan on Jul 3, 2024 16:56:14 GMT
Not too disappointed if they win a majority sufficient for a full parliament though? Just have to ignore the inevitable, tedious 'Corbyn got 41% (or whatever it was) in 2017' crowing that will then go on for ages..despite a) brexit effect and b) the tories got even more because Corbyn inspired them to actively vote against him. Starmer has neutralised that threat. Neither “inevitable”, nor “tedious”, nor “crowing”, nor “for ages”. Maybe have a little more respect for those who take a (slightly) different political view from you.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 16:57:25 GMT
Saw this question on Twitter - a good what if "Does anyone at all have any idea how the Official Opposition party would be determined if two parties are in a tie for second most seats? I've been asking around but nobody seems to know." Since it has never happened before, the Clerks won't have a precedent to advise the Speaker. They may be scrabbling around trying to find similar precedents elsewhere.
The Speaker may have to make a ruling but, since that can be overruled by the House through an amendment to Standing Orders, he might well wish to avoid being defeated and so seek advice from the Leader of the House as to what the PM would like!
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 3, 2024 17:01:20 GMT
I suspect there will come a time when, "When the Facts Change I Change My Mind." I think he wants to dampen down expectations but it will be very refreshing when around 2030 he says, "I was wrong". He won't be the first PM to do that.
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 17:03:42 GMT
YouGov's final MRP polls show Labour on course for 212-seat majority. Labour - 431 Conservatives - 102 Lib Dems - 72 SNP - 18 Reform - 3 Greens - 2 With 89 seats having 5% or less between the leading 2 parties, the range is worth quoting.
Lab 301-466 Con 78-129 LD 57-87 SNP 8-34 REFUK 0-14 PC 1-4 Grn 1-4 Oth 0-1
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,380
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 17:03:47 GMT
Saw this question on Twitter - a good what if "Does anyone at all have any idea how the Official Opposition party would be determined if two parties are in a tie for second most seats? I've been asking around but nobody seems to know." If one of those parties are the tories it won't be an issue for long...a tory MP will either be suspended or defect or perhaps both at the same time 😀
|
|
c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
|
Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 17:04:40 GMT
For the cycling fans…* EDIT - something happened in the cycling today – watch the highlights to find out! * (well, assuming there are some cycling fans! I know some people like cycling themselves on here**, but don’t know if they follow competitive cycling…) ** obviously no big amps to cart around I was going to post this but didn’t want to send it out in case of spoilers for people watching the highlights. An amazing achievement… Argh! Forgot about the spoiler thing! I shall amend my post accordingly…
|
|
|
Post by barbara on Jul 3, 2024 17:05:19 GMT
I don't think it should be on the evening before actual voting. We could all do that. It's gaming the thing a bit if you'd like my opinion. Okay, didn't think it would be a problem as 3 other predictions have been made in the last 3 days, one at 9am this morning But in view of the objection will stick with my original prediction Well I think they're all taking the Mick then. That's like having a bet on a result 3 weeks away then changing it the evening before and keeping the same odds. It also makes the whole thing pointless. We could just have said predictions will open at 5pm on Thursday 4th and close at 10pm and have done with it. @mark - can we have a ruling?
|
|
|
Post by athena on Jul 3, 2024 17:07:55 GMT
I was going to post this but didn’t want to send it out in case of spoilers for people watching the highlights. An amazing achievement. Hard to see how it will ever be beaten. And couldn't happen to a nicer hard working person. Not that I’ve ever met him personally, but no one seems to have a bad word for him. I do usually try to avoid spoilers before the highlights, so thank you for that thought. My problem is that I don't have a TV licence so I can't watch live and ITV4 takes so long to put the highlights up that I'm often a day behind, steering clear of news websites just in case of spoilers. Not sure I'd describe Cav as 'nice' - I think passionate would be closer to the Mark - he probably also holds the record for most microphones and cameras broken, although by all accounts he has mellowed a bit in his old age (39 years - incredible for a sprinter - acceleration is usually one of the things that goes as a cyclist ages). I should think he's blown up at everyone who has ever ridden with him or serviced his bike, but he's also good at letting teammates and support staff know how much they're appreciated. He's a good leader who tends to inspire loyalty in teammates. His leadout at this Tour is the guy who led him out in his second stint at Quickstep, who had planned to retire but was lured to Cav's team for one more year; his DS is another former leadout man.
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,380
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 17:08:02 GMT
Delta poll
Labour lead by 17 points in our final call poll. Con 22% (+1) Lab 39% (-3) Lib Dem 10% (-1) Reform 17% (+1) SNP 2% (-1) Green 7% (+3) Other 3%(-) Fieldwork: 29th June to 3rd July 2024 Sample: 1,737 GB adults (Change from 27th to 29th June 2024)
|
|
oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
|
Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 17:11:19 GMT
Have we had this one?
|
|
pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
|
Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 17:11:28 GMT
|
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,380
Member is Online
|
Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 17:15:37 GMT
Quick back of the fag packet calculation shows Labour lead has dropped on average to around 18% today
|
|