2 Jul 2024 : LAB: 40% / CON: 20% / REF: 17% / LDEM: 13%

[pjw1961]

My seat predictions from my part of the world:

James Cleverly to retain Braintree - majority 2-3,000

Priti Patel to retain Witham - majority 500 - 1,500

Labour to gain Colchester

Lib Dems at long, long last to finally gain Chelmsford. Con might even finish third.

and sadly, I have to agree with Norbold, Farage to be returned as MP for Clacton

[hireton]

Starmer's ambivalence and prevarication (to put it politely) on transgender rights obviously raises questions about his reliability as a supporter of the LBTQ community as a whole.

Starmer's open letter in Attitude in which he attempts to establish his credentials with the community has been published but with qualifications from the publisher. It seems that Starmer can agree to meet a billionaire author very quickly but cannot respond to a request to meet the mother of a young transgender person who commited suicide.

www.attitude.co.uk/news/keir-starmer-attitude-letter-469078/

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 3, 2024 18:16:01 GMT pjw1961 said:

My seat predictions from my part of the world:

James Cleverly to retain Braintree - majority 2-3,000

Not after all your leafleting PJ, I refuse to believe it!

[neilj]

Good old Savanta bucking the trend

Lab 39 (=)
🌳Con 20 (-4)
➡️Reform 17 (+4)
🔶LD 10 (=)
🌍Green 5 (+1)
🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
⬜️Other 7 (=)

2,101 UK adults

2-3 July (chg from 28-30 Jun)

[hireton]

Looking beyond election day, sources close to Douglas Alexander have been saying for the past few weeks that he will be the next Foreign Secretary ( if elected). I noticed that the speculation that Lammy will not be appointed Foreign Secretary has now reached the UK press especially when Starmer failed to offer strong support to Lammy when questioned about it.

Seems unlikely butxStarmer will never have more scope to be ruthless than on Friday,July 5th

[pjw1961]

Jul 3, 2024 18:20:39 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 3, 2024 18:16:01 GMT pjw1961 said:

My seat predictions from my part of the world:

James Cleverly to retain Braintree - majority 2-3,000

Not after all your leafleting PJ, I refuse to believe it!

Combination of the great rural hinterland of the seat which will never vote Labour come what may (although many will vote Reform) and the fact that Cleverly, if not exactly a great constituency MP, is not obviously mad, bad or dangerous to know. He will have a degree of personal vote. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 3, 2024 18:25:30 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 3, 2024 18:20:39 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Not after all your leafleting PJ, I refuse to believe it!

Combination of the great rural hinterland of the seat which will never vote Labour come what may (although many will vote Reform) and the fact that Cleverly, if not exactly a great constituency MP, is not obvious mad, bad or dangerous to know. He will have a degree of personal vote. 

well, in that case, if Cleverly goes, it will be quite a Portillo moment PJ!

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

New poll predicts 234-seat Labour majority
A new poll has predicted Labour will win a 234-seat majority in Thursday’s election.

The SRP (stacked regression post-stratification) survey by JL Partners predicted that Sir Keir Starmer’s party would win 442 seats, followed by the Tories on 111 and the Lib Dems on 58.

The SNP are set to win 15 seats, Plaid Cymru three, the Green Party one and Reform UK one – in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is the candidate.


James Johnson, who was head of polling for Theresa May when she was Prime Minister, said “Labour are set to win an enormous majority with a lower share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn in 2017”.

The model predicts that Labour will win 38 per cent of the vote, followed by the Conservatives on 23 per cent, Reform UK on 16 per cent, Lib Dems on 12 per cent and the Greens on six per cent.

Telegraph

[hireton]

Rafael Behr's article on Starmer says amongst other things that he always fies what hesays he will do.

Setting aside the evidence to the contrary,if this is true then under his leadership the UK will never rejoin the Customs Union, the Single Market or the EU:

"Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister."

[Deleted]

Another one:

“ UK Forecast

Party % Vote Forecast Change on 2019
Labour 39.3% (+7.2%) 441 (432 - 450) +232 to +250
Conservatives 20.2% (-23.4%) 109 (105 - 112) -266 to -259
Reform 17.2% (+15.2%) 10 (0 - 19) nc to +19
Liberal Democrats 10.1% (-1.5%) 45 (42 - 49) +33 to +40
Green 6.6% (+3.9%) 1 (0 - 2) -1 to +1
SNP 2.9% (-1.0%) 22 (21 - 23) -27 to -25
Plaid Cymru 0.6% (+0.1%) 3 (2 - 5) nc to +2
Speaker 1 nc
Others 1 (0 - 2) nc to +2
Northern Ireland 18 nc”

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Jul 3, 2024 16:02:28 GMT barbara said:

Jul 3, 2024 15:31:35 GMT neilj said:

Have updated my prediction on the prediction thread just for info. I assume it's allowed

I  don't think it should be on the evening before actual voting. We could all do that. It's gaming the thing a bit if you'd like my opinion.

I thought we got an original shot then one chance to change before polling day! Many did their first before Farage chose to stand.

[athena]

I think the Tories have lost quite a lot of the farming vote over Brexit (loss of EU labour) and then the unbelievably bad trade deals that were signed with Australia and others. Friends in Australia were bemused that the UK had signed a deal that was so obviously massively in Australia's favour and were asking what the UK was getting out of it, assuming that there was something the Australian media weren't mentioning.

[johntel]

Don't know if people have seen this Sam Freedman substack article which has polling, results times and predictions for every constituency?


samf.substack.com/p/all-650-seat-previews-in-one-place?r=72szy&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true


with detailed predictions for every constituency - jonskeet.uk/election2024

[pjw1961]

Jul 3, 2024 18:35:24 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 3, 2024 18:25:30 GMT pjw1961 said:

Combination of the great rural hinterland of the seat which will never vote Labour come what may (although many will vote Reform) and the fact that Cleverly, if not exactly a great constituency MP, is not obvious mad, bad or dangerous to know. He will have a degree of personal vote. 

well, in that case, if Cleverly goes, it will be quite a Portillo moment PJ!

It would be anyway given he is Home Secretary and a former Foreign Secretary. Priti Patel would be a considerable scalp too. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 3, 2024 19:01:42 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 3, 2024 18:35:24 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

well, in that case, if Cleverly goes, it will be quite a Portillo moment PJ!

It would be anyway given he is Home Secretary and a former Foreign Secretary. Priti Patel would be a considerable scalp too. 

What time is Braintree likely to be announced?

[pjw1961]

Jul 3, 2024 18:37:50 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

James Johnson, who was head of polling for Theresa May when she was Prime Minister, said “Labour are set to win an enormous majority with a lower share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn in 2017”.

The model predicts that Labour will win 38 per cent of the vote, followed by the Conservatives on 23 per cent, Reform UK on 16 per cent, Lib Dems on 12 per cent and the Greens on six per cent.

That really is a very silly comment. It is like saying that because a football team lost a previous match 6-4, the fact they are winning this one 3-0 is a worse result. 

The big change is that 2017 was almost a return to a two party system (prompted by a re-run of the Brexit vote), whereas 2024 is more like a 4.5 party system - or 5.5 in Scotland. Inevitably, it would be hard for any party to reach 40% in that context. . 

[oldnat]

Jul 3, 2024 18:38:42 GMT hireton said:

Rafael Behr's article on Starmer says amongst other things that he always fies what hesays he will do.

Setting aside the evidence to the contrary,if this is true then under his leadership the UK will never rejoin the Customs Union, the Single Market or the EU:

"Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister."

With such an enormous lead in every single poll, it is inconceivable that Starmer has made that separatist statement, on the eve of the election, in order to secure votes from Brexiteers. That he means it, must almost certainly be the case.

The message to the EU will be clear. For the 3rd UK GE and its 5th PM in a row, the UK stands "proudly" alone. While the EU has always wanted to expand its membership, and would have welcomed a genuine wish from the parts of this archipelago which are outside it to rejoin, they will be confirmed in their view that no matter which of England's largest parties control Downing St, the UK will never be a trustworthy member - or friend, for that matter.

Consequently, while they will be happy to accommodate the UK's wish to reach agreements on some matters, those will be entirely on the EU's terms. Like Australia, they will happily accommodate (and screw) supplicants.

[pjw1961]

Jul 3, 2024 19:03:22 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Jul 3, 2024 19:01:42 GMT pjw1961 said:

It would be anyway given he is Home Secretary and a former Foreign Secretary. Priti Patel would be a considerable scalp too. 

What time is Braintree likely to be announced?

It's never very early. I think it was about 4.30 a.m. in 1997 - I was still up, enjoying the entertainment

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 3, 2024 19:10:49 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 3, 2024 19:03:22 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

What time is Braintree likely to be announced?

It's never very early. I think it was about 4.30 a.m. in 1997 - I was still up, enjoying the entertainment

Yes, just checked the Telegraph and it’s in the batch of results after 4 am

[pjw1961]

Jul 3, 2024 18:38:42 GMT hireton said:

Rafael Behr's article on Starmer says amongst other things that he always fies what hesays he will do.

Setting aside the evidence to the contrary,if this is true then under his leadership the UK will never rejoin the Customs Union, the Single Market or the EU:

"Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister."

Of course he means it, he's been entirely clear on that for ages. It doesn't mean anything of importance, however, as given Starmer's age he will be PM for 10 years max and there is no chance of rejoining the EU in that time frame anyway. That is an issue for the 2030s. 

I think he is wrong about the lifetime thing though. Assuming he lives to the same age as his father, we will rejoin within his lifetime, and hopefully mine, but under a different PM. 
 

[mercian]

Jul 3, 2024 7:54:26 GMT barbara said:

Jul 3, 2024 5:36:50 GMT neilj said:

Certainly Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsome are in the frame but I've also read Pete Buttigieg is quite fancied. 

The worry with the former two is their name recognition US wide - it's such a big country it's entirely possible that lots of voters don't know who they are.

eor help us out here. 

Didn't Gavin Newsome used to be a sports reporter on ITV?

[mercian]

Jul 3, 2024 7:55:55 GMT barbara said:

Jul 3, 2024 5:48:46 GMT crossbat11 said:

I think Obama may be the key figure here. If he has a private conversation with Biden suggesting that he should step down then I think he would.

The mutual respect and admiration between the two men is enormous.

Also if Biden steps down he'll be a Democratic hero for ever. If he stays and lets Trump in he's finished in every sense of the word.

What if he steps down and his replacement loses? Could be a villain for ever in some peoples' eyes.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 3, 2024 19:09:25 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 3, 2024 18:37:50 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

James Johnson, who was head of polling for Theresa May when she was Prime Minister, said “Labour are set to win an enormous majority with a lower share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn in 2017”.

The model predicts that Labour will win 38 per cent of the vote, followed by the Conservatives on 23 per cent, Reform UK on 16 per cent, Lib Dems on 12 per cent and the Greens on six per cent.

That really is a very silly comment. It is like saying that because a football team lost a previous match 6-4, the fact they are winning this one 3-0 is a worse result. 

It didn’t say it’s a worse result than losing. it’s saying that they are winning despite scoring fewer goals than a team that lost before. 

[mark61]

I have just read a repot that Galloway has accepted 2 donations from Andrew Tate's brother and Co-accused Tristan.  Galloway is now in the top 3 of my wished for Portillo moments. 

[Deleted]

I’ve checked with Mark (in case barbara complains again ) and will be entering my considered forecast around 10 p.m.tomorrow.

Fingers crossed.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Jul 3, 2024 18:38:42 GMT hireton said:

Rafael Behr's article on Starmer says amongst other things that he always fies what hesays he will do.

Setting aside the evidence to the contrary,if this is true then under his leadership the UK will never rejoin the Customs Union, the Single Market or the EU:

"Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister."

No, he’s saying he’ll seek closer relations on things like research collaboration, just not on all the right-wing economics (maybe a bit tho’)

[RAF]

Some interesting nuggets from YG's final MRP.

Although the Tories are only on 102 seats, there are a number of Lomdon seats where there are only a whisker ahead of Lab:

London is a sea of red, with yellow in the south west and 6 Tory areas according to this projection, the 4 closest being on a knife edge:


Hornchurch and Upminster
(Con 35, Lab 33, Reform 20)

Romford
(Con 35, Lab 34, Reform 19)

Finchley and Golders Green
(Con 34 Lab 33 LD 20)

Harrow East
(Con 42, Lab 40)

Just to show how badly the Tories are set to do in London, the LDs are projected to take virtually all the seats in the south west of the capital, most with absolutely huge majorities

In addition Lab is set to win Bromley and Biggin Hill for the first time ever and by 8% (this is a new constituency, it was Bromley and Chislehurst last time - but of anything the new boundaries should be even more Tory).

Lab is also fractionally ahead in Orpington (Lab 35, Tories 35). This is one of those areas right on the outer fringes of London (Zine 6) where voting patterns are far more akin to Kent than London.

Just outside London, the YouGov MRP has Labour sweeping the Medway towns in northern Kent and the southern Essex areas along the Thames estuary closest to London.

[oldnat]

Jul 3, 2024 19:16:58 GMT pjw1961 said:

Jul 3, 2024 18:38:42 GMT hireton said:

Rafael Behr's article on Starmer says amongst other things that he always fies what hesays he will do.

Setting aside the evidence to the contrary,if this is true then under his leadership the UK will never rejoin the Customs Union, the Single Market or the EU:

"Keir Starmer has insisted the UK will not rejoin either the EU, the single market or the customs union within his lifetime, in his firmest pledge yet that Labour will not seek much closer relations with Europe for as long as he is prime minister."

Of course he means it, he's been entirely clear on that for ages. It doesn't mean anything of importance, however, as given Starmer's age he will be PM for 10 years max and there is no chance of rejoining the EU in that time frame anyway. That is an issue for the 2030s. 

I think he is wrong about the lifetime thing though. Assuming he lives to the same age as his father, we will rejoin within his lifetime, and hopefully mine, but under a different PM. 
 

Well, obviously there is no chance of the UK rejoining the EU in the next 10 years, since the incoming PM has declared that the UK will never do so!

Were the incoming PM to have declared an intention to rejoin "when the time was right" (positions of SNP, SGP, Alliance, Plaid for their polities - or GP of E&W for theirs) or to have a "longer term ambition" to do so (Lib-Dems) or to have ambitions to join the Customs Union and Single Market at some point, then the door would have been left open. Starmer chooses to slam it shut so that even preliminary moves towards reunification cannot start until the mid 2030s.

[mercian]

Jul 3, 2024 9:58:33 GMT norbold said:

After some extensive research through the archives, I can reveal that in 1983, neither the Tory Party, nor their leading newspaper supporters (Mail, Express, Sun, Telegraph) warned about a super majority in spite of the fact that they won a 188 seat majority over Labour. In fact, they seemed rather pleased about it. Strange, eh?

I keep hearing about a 'supermajority'. I thought it was a word with a specific meaning in US politics. What does it mean in a UK GE context? It appears to be being used to mean 'very big'. But what is that, over 100, 200, 300 or what?

[oldnat]

Jul 3, 2024 19:34:21 GMT @fecklessmiser said:

I’ve checked with Mark (in case barbara complains again ) and will be entering my considered forecast around 10 p.m.tomorrow.

Fingers crossed.

I had already stated that, due to the number of marginal seats in Scotland, I would give my prediction of the distribution of MPs in Scotland after all the recounts had taken place.

With the possibility of by-elections having to take place due to the disenfranchisement of many postal voters in marginal seats, I may have to delay that a little!