oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on Jul 3, 2024 15:20:03 GMT
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Post by johntel on Jul 3, 2024 15:23:38 GMT
My insider source (well the wife, via her Spanish whatsapp group) informs me that the Conservatives have given up on Surrey Heath and Woking constituencies, so that's 2 more for the Lib Dems.
And Brighton Pavilion is awash in green posters today, so it seems the Labour challenge here has fizzled out, despite local election gains.
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Post by moby on Jul 3, 2024 15:24:52 GMT
I see Starmer was in the Carmarthen seat this morning tending to suggest things are tight there between Labour and Plaid. That's my seat....a close fight.....Plaid posters everywhere in the countryside and villages (effing farmers for you!)....Labour vote is concentrated in the towns, Ammanford, Carmarthen. I think Plaid (Ann Davies) will get it...but at least we should see the tories, (Anthony Hart, ) in third place. |
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Post by Lakeland Lass on Jul 3, 2024 15:26:03 GMT
Doesn’t look as though this is going to penalties….  just as well ... is it possible to score an own goal during a penalty shootout ? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 15:26:51 GMT
Mandolinist and crossbat, I went to the old fox every Thursday night in the early eighties when the Bristol poly bike club met there. It's not derelict now ( was for a few years) and is still a community resource as it is now the Masjid Al-Huda mosque. Thanks to both you and mandolinist for reviving some very fond memories and also bringing me up to speed about a place I haven't returned to for a very long time I hope this incoming Labour Government (🤞), despite its visionary shortcomings for now, ushers in a period of gradual national renaissance, reviving communities like Eastville and great old cities like Bristol. Not overnight, obviously, but the beginning of something better. It's what I hope for, anyway and it's also why I'll never abandon politics nor give up on politicians. Tomorrow will be a celebration of democracy. I embrace it. A peaceful changing of the guard. |
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Post by norbold on Jul 3, 2024 15:27:00 GMT
Just a thought....Do people really wake up on election day and say, "Oh well, Labour are going to win, so I won't bother voting"? Really, do they?
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,377
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 15:30:26 GMT
Just a thought....Do people really wake up on election day and say, "Oh well, Labour are going to win, so I won't bother voting"? Really, do they? Some might, a lot of people aren't that engaged |
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Post by moosepoll on Jul 3, 2024 15:31:16 GMT
Just a thought....Do people really wake up on election day and say, "Oh well, Labour are going to win, so I won't bother voting"? Really, do they? When I was a member of a political party so sure was I that the fav would win the leadership contest I never sent my vote in. Of course the fav did not win and we ended up with someone incapable of eating a bacon sarnie. |
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,377
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Post by neilj on Jul 3, 2024 15:31:35 GMT
Have updated my prediction on the prediction thread just for info. I assume it's allowed
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Post by alberto on Jul 3, 2024 15:33:14 GMT
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Post by robbiealive on Jul 3, 2024 15:35:40 GMT
My Noble norbold . Final post on Clacton. I related how we took my niece on a tour of the Essex resorts of our youth. Jaywick had an enormous mud flat, the only occupant of which was a rather plump white lad on a lounger listening to a ghetto blaster. I did relate how proprietor of a Clacton cafe asked if we had arrived in our youth by yacht. This made me realize how much I had poshed up since I was a snotty ten-year-old. Since you brought up the question of Clacton, just a little insight into the thinking of the tourist trade down here.
Yesterday, I attended a meeting of the Clacton Tourist Group. This is a group that was set-up in the wake of a "levelling-up" £20 million grant to look at how this money could best be spent to bring tourists/holiday makers back to the area. For those who don't know Clacton still relies heavily on the tourist and holiday trade for its economy even though it has been in general decline ever since the 1960s, though with a bit of an upturn of late.
Anyway, this group comprises Council officers and Councillors along with the owners of the local tourist trade facilities - The Pier, amusement arcades, theatres, sporting and leisure facilities, restaurants, hotels, etc. There was absolute horror expressed by every single person present (except the one council officer, who wasn't allowed to express anything) at the thought of Farage being elected and the image this would give Clacton. It was felt by all that this would be a major setback to Clacton's recent revival and discourage future holiday makers from coming to a town that could vote for someone like him.
Amazing n fascinating. The Brexit Bungaloid People will no doubt be proud of Farage, He will do nothing for Clacton while Tourist-based prosprity will bring benefits to all. |
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Post by chrisc on Jul 3, 2024 15:47:05 GMT
My Noble norbold . Final post on Clacton. I related how we took my niece on a tour of the Essex resorts of our youth. Jaywick had an enormous mud flat, the only occupant of which was a rather plump white lad on a lounger listening to a ghetto blaster. I did relate how proprietor of a Clacton cafe asked if we had arrived in our youth by yacht. This made me realize how much I had poshed up since I was a snotty ten-year-old. Since you brought up the question of Clacton, just a little insight into the thinking of the tourist trade down here.
Yesterday, I attended a meeting of the Clacton Tourist Group. This is a group that was set-up in the wake of a "levelling-up" £20 million grant to look at how this money could best be spent to bring tourists/holiday makers back to the area. For those who don't know Clacton still relies heavily on the tourist and holiday trade for its economy even though it has been in general decline ever since the 1960s, though with a bit of an upturn of late.
Anyway, this group comprises Council officers and Councillors along with the owners of the local tourist trade facilities - The Pier, amusement arcades, theatres, sporting and leisure facilities, restaurants, hotels, etc. There was absolute horror expressed by every single person present (except the one council officer, who wasn't allowed to express anything) at the thought of Farage being elected and the image this would give Clacton. It was felt by all that this would be a major setback to Clacton's recent revival and discourage future holiday makers from coming to a town that could vote for someone like him.
Yes. Why couldn’t he have stayed in Thanet, messing up Margate instead? |
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Post by barbara on Jul 3, 2024 15:48:35 GMT
Hers is the kind of lesson we want the Tories to learn after tomorrow. It will guarantee them staying out of power for a decade. Brilliant! |
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Post by barbara on Jul 3, 2024 15:53:41 GMT
I went to my tea dance today. First, it's in Hartlepool. I don't live there but it's everything you've ever heard about it. Second, the average age is about 70. No one is particularly well off or particularly poor.
On my table I would say about 70% hate Labour. Of that 70% over half will probably vote Reform. The rest will either vote Tory or not vote. It's a sharp reminder that my friends and I live in a leftish OAP bubble.
Hartlepool is projected to go Labour and I think it will but only because all of htese people represent the over 65s that we know are out on a limb in this election. HOpefully their influence will reduce over the next decade as they succumb to the mortality that afflicts us all.
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Post by athena on Jul 3, 2024 15:57:16 GMT
Is it time for another round of predictions? How about:
- The first member of the Shadow Cabinet to get sacked or demoted (or just not appointed on Friday) and how many months it will take
- The first member of the new intake to make it into the Cabinet and how many months it will take
(There are a lot of leadership favourites standing for the first time in this election. Might David Miliband stand in a byelection and shortly afterwards slot in as Foreign Sec. if Lammy's reckoning with the UK's colonial past becomes too much of a threat to Starmer's electoral coalition?)
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 16:00:18 GMT
Also if Biden steps down he'll be a Democratic hero for ever. If he stays and lets Trump in he's finished in every sense of the word. It's a gamble every which way though, this should have been something that was dealt with ages ago. I worry that if Biden is now replaced on the ballot by a relatively unknown, younger Democrat that it almost gifts Trump a kind of incumbency bonus as he's been in the office before. That could of course just as easily work against him and on balance it's probably safer than to leave Biden as the candidate at this stage. It's insane it's got so far really. At the end of his second term Biden, if he won, would be 85. No-one should still be working in a demanding job, let alone in a senior leadership role at that age. I don't think keeping Biden is any longer a gamble. The polling is clear - he will definitely lose. |
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Post by graham on Jul 3, 2024 16:01:28 GMT
I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Labour will get at least 40% tomorrow. Many people, especially the less politically aware, like to back a winning horse and there can't be much doubt out there about which horse that's likely to be. Could be wrong, fingers crossed, I want Labour to have a good mandate for change. Having said that erstwhile tories sitting on their hands may not be actively voting for Labour or LD but they're tacitly accepting of a Labour gvt as they know what the result will be. You could almost call it a tactical 'vote'. I am not aware of an example of the party well ahead in the polls outperforming expectations on eve of poll. There are several counter examples of big majorities being won but on lower vote shares and smaller polling leads than predicted - 1966 - Oct 1974 - 1983 - 1997 - 2001. |
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Post by barbara on Jul 3, 2024 16:02:28 GMT
Have updated my prediction on the prediction thread just for info. I assume it's allowed I don't think it should be on the evening before actual voting. We could all do that. It's gaming the thing a bit if you'd like my opinion. |
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Post by barbara on Jul 3, 2024 16:04:41 GMT
Is it time for another round of predictions? How about: - The first member of the Shadow Cabinet to get sacked or demoted (or just not appointed on Friday) and how many months it will take [/i] - The first member of the new intake to make it into the Cabinet and how many months it will take (There are a lot of leadership favourites standing for the first time in this election. Might David Miliband stand in a byelection and shortly afterwards slot in as Foreign Sec. if Lammy's reckoning with the UK's colonial past becomes too much of a threat to Starmer's electoral coalition?)[/quote] Oh I do hope David M comes back as Foreign Sec. Perhaps Starmer will put him in the Lords like Cameron. |
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steve
Member
Posts: 12,633
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Post by steve on Jul 3, 2024 16:10:56 GMT
So in desperation the Tories rolled out the Spaffer. Looking at the state of it presumably in a wheelbarrow.  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,700
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on Jul 3, 2024 16:15:39 GMT
For the cycling fans…*
EDIT - something happened in the cycling today: watch the highlights to find out!
* (well, assuming there are some cycling fans! I know some people like cycling themselves on here**, but don’t know if they follow competitive cycling…)
** obviously no big amps to cart around
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 16:16:13 GMT
Personally will be disappointed if Labour get lower than 38%. Ditto. But I wouldn't be surprised. Not too disappointed if they win a majority sufficient for a full parliament though? |
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 16:16:52 GMT
I might be getting carried away here, but I wonder if the abiding memory of election night 2024, and its historical catchphrase, will be......
..."Were you up for Sunak?"
🤔😜✊
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Post by kay9 on Jul 3, 2024 16:21:50 GMT
Doesn’t look as though this is going to penalties…. just as well ... is it possible to score an own goal during a penalty shootout ? I once saw a penalty shoot-out where the ball bounced from the crossbar, onto the back of the goalie’s head and ended up in the net. I think the goal was allowed, but who scored it? |
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Post by jimjam on Jul 3, 2024 16:21:54 GMT
Richie Soontobesacked
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Post by crossbat11 on Jul 3, 2024 16:23:05 GMT
pjw1961I see your boys gave Surrey a slightly better game than we did. In the sense that you did at least require them to bat twice!
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 16:23:32 GMT
Final More in Common MRP, feels about right to me MRP projects a Labour majority of 210 & worst defeat in Tory Party history 🔴LAB 430 (+228) 🔵CON 126 (-239) 🟠LD 52 (+41) 🟡SNP 16 (-32) 🟣REF UK 2 (+2) 🟢GRN 1 (-) 🟢 PLAID 2 (-2) ⚪️ OTH 2 (+2) N 13,556 | 24/6 to 1/7 Very plausible. I would be delighted by no major RefUK breakthrough. More worried about that than the Tories at the moment. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 16:24:18 GMT
BMG More evidence of tightening LAB: 39% (-3) CON: 22% (+2) RFM: 16% (=) LDM: 11% (-1) GRN: 7% (+1) SNP: 3% (=) OTH: 3% (+1) Not sure a 17 point lead can be called tightening |
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domjg
Member
Posts: 5,123
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Post by domjg on Jul 3, 2024 16:24:55 GMT
Ditto. But I wouldn't be surprised. Not too disappointed if they win a majority sufficient for a full parliament though? Just have to ignore the inevitable, tedious 'Corbyn got 41% (or whatever it was) in 2017' crowing that will then go on for ages..despite a) brexit effect and b) the tories got even more because Corbyn inspired them to actively vote against him. Starmer has neutralised that threat. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on Jul 3, 2024 16:28:16 GMT
My insider source (well the wife, via her Spanish whatsapp group) informs me that the Conservatives have given up on Surrey Heath and Woking constituencies, so that's 2 more for the Lib Dems. And Brighton Pavilion is awash in green posters today, so it seems the Labour challenge here has fizzled out, despite local election gains. Posters mean very little. If posters were votes the Liberals/Lib Dems would have won Chelmsford in every election since 1974 - but they never have yet. |
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