pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,573
|
Post by pjw1961 on May 27, 2024 22:01:59 GMT
We should show the Conservatives as much mercy as Essex did Kent  if, by so doing, you assist the Mighty Pears in their valiant bid to preserve their top flight status. Which they appear to be doing so via a succession of rain affected draws, navigating the ludicrously arcane bonus points system and the tendency for draws to be greatly over rewarded. In fact I haven't ruled out us winning the title without winning a single game! Dave has now gone off you as well |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 22:06:23 GMT
I'm more than happy for you to dispose of the division's small fry if, by so doing, you assist the Mighty Pears in their valiant bid to preserve their top flight status. Which they appear to be doing so via a succession of rain affected draws, navigating the ludicrously arcane bonus points system and the tendency for draws to be greatly over rewarded. In fact I haven't ruled out us winning the title without winning a single game! Dave has now gone off you as well I haven’t gone off you Batty. You were kind to me when I was in hospital. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 27, 2024 22:10:43 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 22:21:54 GMT
I'm puzzled by the Tories' GE policy so far being entirely centred on Sunak himself, a man about as popular currently as mumps. I haven't seen another supportive major CON personality for days. When you do hear from them, it's either to say they're not standing again, 'campaigning from Greece', or just effectively sacking themselves by supporting RFM. Even the loquacious and ever loyal Shapps has been conspicuous by his absence. Does this mean that the snap election announcement has so mightily p*ssed off his senior colleagues that they no longer even care?
Whatever the cause, Sunak desperately continues to plough his lonely furrow. He spent today fighting a rearguard action to shore up CON support in the erstwhile taken-as-read Tory shires, announcing policy sops such as National Service for 18 year olds and a pension bung to his most reliable, but still seemingly wavering, demographic, the wrinklies. Damage limitation seems the order of the day.
|
|
|
|
Post by RAF on May 27, 2024 22:22:36 GMT
Isaac Levido's involvement with campaigns has not always been successful.
He did work on Boris's big win in 2019, and the Australian Liberal Party's unexpected win in 2019.
However, he also worked on two disastrous campaigns. Theresa's May lost majority from.over 20%+ up at the start in 2017; and Zac Goldsmith's failure against Sadiq Khan in 2016.
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 27, 2024 22:23:45 GMT
What the discussion about school fees seem to be missing is the obvious anomaly of pretending that commercial businesses are charities and giving them a tax break as if they were. This particular lie is simply maintained as a subsidy to the wealthy elite to ensure that their own children retain, through the networking opportunities, small class sizes, lavish facilities and connections into elite universities, a huge advantage over state school children. Anyone really think lightweights such as Cameron, Johnson and Sunak would have become PM without these advantages? The whole thing is a monstrous scam and should have been abolished years ago. Some private schools have some charitable functions at least. I'm a bit out of touch but my old school has a number of free places for bright kids and bursaries to help for many others. They also allow the public to use some of their facilities such as squash courts but I expect they charge for that. When I went there Birmingham Council paid for a lot of places for boys who passed the entrance exam but I doubt they do any more. Despite all that even at that school there was an element of snobbery. One boy in my year had a more pronounced Brummie accent than most of us and at least one teacher openly mocked him by imitating his accent. He didn't speak up in class much after that. |
|
|
|
Post by jib on May 27, 2024 22:27:22 GMT
 Courtesy of the Guardian. |
|
|
|
Post by jib on May 27, 2024 22:30:15 GMT
This one's pretty good too - Guardian again! ![]()  |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 27, 2024 22:31:16 GMT
The small number of Conservative MPs who will get in at the GE will have an unprecedented amount of power to choose their next leader. And if they pick 2 candidates who the general membership don't like then the party may well self-combust. Get those hobknobs in for a while summer of fun! You're assuming that Sunak will go. I agree but it's not a certainty. Some have stayed on as leader after losing a GE although not recently (I think Heath may have been the last). The question is will he resign or wait until there's a challenge? I'd go with those who think he'll resign. |
|
|
|
Post by jib on May 27, 2024 22:31:53 GMT
Better balance it out with this (courtesy of the Telegraph)  |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,640
Member is Online
|
Post by steve on May 27, 2024 22:39:07 GMT
I'm quite capable of posting a link.
But I wouldn't post the same one every bloody week since the beginning of time!
|
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 27, 2024 22:39:14 GMT
Apologies for my multiple, boring posts but this is recuperation for you. I’ve just managed a small section of rather excellent carrot cake so things are looking up at last. You must still be very ill. You don't normally apologise. |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 27, 2024 22:40:43 GMT
I have returned to pontificate on the upcoming election. I was here all along, just too pushed busy-wise to post. Welcome back. |
|
|
|
Post by jib on May 27, 2024 22:56:04 GMT
I'm quite capable of posting a link. But I wouldn't post the same one every bloody week since the beginning of time! You said it. ![]()  |
|
|
|
Post by mercian on May 27, 2024 23:00:55 GMT
I think the Tories are at risk of losing more votes with the National service policy, maybe mostly to Lib Dems but also to Labour. and Reform. It could also help Labour get some of the VI lost to Green Party They might have got away with it more if they were more vague on details and just said would set up Royal Commission but they had all the details such as start date of September 2025 (most likely would take longer than that with Royal commission) confusion of how it would be paid for, a weekend every month for year (why not one lot of 4 weeks) ,how people who did not do it would be punished etc. Just led to poor communication with Tory campaigners outside the inner circle having no idea how to communicate it, so just a PR disaster for Sunak According to a reported quote by Steve Baker the policy was announced without reference to relevant ministers. If so, Sunak is acting like a dictator rather than a first-among-equals which I thought the PM was supposed to be. Not that he's the only one to do so in recent years. |
|
|
|
Post by jib on May 27, 2024 23:05:10 GMT
I think the Tories are at risk of losing more votes with the National service policy, maybe mostly to Lib Dems but also to Labour. and Reform. It could also help Labour get some of the VI lost to Green Party They might have got away with it more if they were more vague on details and just said would set up Royal Commission but they had all the details such as start date of September 2025 (most likely would take longer than that with Royal commission) confusion of how it would be paid for, a weekend every month for year (why not one lot of 4 weeks) ,how people who did not do it would be punished etc. Just led to poor communication with Tory campaigners outside the inner circle having no idea how to communicate it, so just a PR disaster for Sunak According to a reported quote by Steve Baker the policy was announced without reference to relevant ministers. If so, Sunak is acting like a dictator rather than a first-among-equals which I thought the PM was supposed to be. Not that he's the only one to do so in recent years. The Tory Party has gone mad. I think it's only ex-Defence Minister Ben "Charge of the Light Brigade" Wallace who thinks it's a good idea. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 23:15:02 GMT
Apologies for my multiple, boring posts but this is recuperation for you. I’ve just managed a small section of rather excellent carrot cake so things are looking up at last. You must still be very ill. You don't normally apologise. Hilarious. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 27, 2024 23:46:47 GMT
Haven't learned to copy and paste twitter on a mobile but was linking to stats for lefties who has a list of candidates to date: Lab 594 Green 561 LD 493 Reform 460 Con 398 Workers party 169 Tories really hitting the ground running! I haven't checked the math, but I read earlier that CON need to appoint a candidate every 100 minutes between now and when candidate nominations close on 7th June. So, obviously plenty of time for a rigorous selection process. Talk about caught on the hop by a snap election announcement. Remind me again who has a plan? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on May 28, 2024 0:00:05 GMT
|
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,364
|
Post by Danny on May 28, 2024 1:39:58 GMT
Had a look through Twitter on the national service thing. one thing struck me. While, as expected, most were opposed, opposition was right across the spectrum, from lefties, Labourites, centrists, centre right and hard right. It will be interesting to see the polls in the coming week... But even so, is it better for con to talk about a national service scheme than to discuss just why we have record immigration? |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,364
|
Post by Danny on May 28, 2024 1:50:14 GMT
I'm puzzled by the Tories' GE policy so far being entirely centred on Sunak himself, a man about as popular currently as mumps. I haven't seen another supportive major CON personality for days. When you do hear from them, it's either to say they're not standing again, 'campaigning from Greece', or just effectively sacking themselves by supporting RFM. Even the loquacious and ever loyal Shapps has been conspicuous by his absence. Does this mean that the snap election announcement has so mightily p*ssed off his senior colleagues that they no longer even care? Hmm. Its possible the whole party had pretty much concluded winning was impossible, so wanted to just enjoy their last six months of well paid employment with few responsibilities. After all, if you intend to quit anyway, whats the point of turning up at the commons or doing anything in your constituency, have a six month holiday at the taxpayers expense. And then Sunak insisted on going at the best moment, in the very inconvenient summer, despite not a cat in hells chance of pulling it off. And now finds himself conducting a one man campaign? |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,392
|
Post by neilj on May 28, 2024 5:22:07 GMT
Should be atleast 2 polls today, Redfield Wilton (normally published yesterday) and Survation
|
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,640
Member is Online
|
Post by steve on May 28, 2024 6:04:50 GMT
 The new constituency of Harpenden and Berkhamsted is going to be contested between my party and the Tories, it's a likely win for the Lib Dems. You could be fooled if you looked at the Tory election pamphlets falling through people's letter boxes that we were contesting the seat against the Greens. It must be great having such confidence in your party affiliation that you don't mention it. Congratulations former Kremlin lobbyist and conservative candidate Nigel Gardener . I've included ours for comparison. Attachment Deleted |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 28, 2024 6:16:29 GMT
More dissent among the tories 9th |
|
neilj
Member
Posts: 6,392
|
Post by neilj on May 28, 2024 6:20:24 GMT
"The prime minister announced on Monday night that the party would give a new £100-a-year tax break to pensioners by increasing their personal allowance, as part of his continuing drive to win back older former Conservative voters who are saying they intend to vote for Reform." They couldn't be more blatant as to which age demographic they are going for. This proposal implies that tax thresholds will stay frozen for the rest of the UK population, otherwise it's an irrelevance So in effect a tax rise for everyone else |
|
|
|
Post by John Chanin on May 28, 2024 6:23:04 GMT
Apologies for my multiple, boring posts but this is recuperation for you. I’ve just managed a small section of rather excellent carrot cake so things are looking up at last. You must still be very ill. You don't normally apologise. To apologise for making multiple boring posts is more egregious than actually making them, because it shows that you know you are making multiple boring posts, and don't care if you are wasting other people's time. |
|
|
|
Post by bardin1 on May 28, 2024 6:36:49 GMT
From Numbercruncher politics ( www.ncpolitics.uk/ ) Are the polls exaggerating Labour's lead? By Matt Singh Rob Hayward, who called the 1992 polling failure (and whose analyses are always worth paying attention to) has told the Guardian he thinks there is some skew in the polls now, citing the local election results – which were less bad for the Conservatives than might have been expected based on Westminster polls – and the makeup of undecided voters in those polls.
Local elections
Over the weekend I spoke to Polling UnPacked on precisely this topic, particularly with regard to the local election results, and what I see as the differences between now and 2015 when it comes to potential polling error. The whole post is worth reading, but it quotes the following summary of my thoughts:
I think the key differences [between now and 2015] are that it’s only one thing rather than everything, and in terms of “real votes”, chiefly Westminster by-elections, this looks nothing like 2015 (both Labour and Lib Dems have been getting mid-90s level swings)
I also think there are other explanations for the narrower gap in local elections than you’d expect given the polls. We know for sure that the squeezable votes are much more on the left (or at least, lean Labour over Conservative right now). The system is more fragmented, ticket-splitting may be higher, the age-based realignment way have moved lower turnout elections to the right, the anti-governing party bias may be less than it was, and so on.
Don't know, do matter
But what about people who say they'll probably vote, but don't know which party's box they'll tick? This is a big deal. After the 1992 disaster, pollsters recontacted their respondents and found that their don't knows had broken heavily for John Major, in many cases having also voted for Margaret Thatcher in 1987. This led to the suspicion than they hadn't genuinely been undecided and had in reality intended to vote Conservative all along (the Shy Tory Factor).
Whether this was really the case or voters had simply reverted to habit doesn't really matter – the point is that undecided voters do tend to return home. And in 2024 they are, once again, more like to be Tories. But unlike in 1992, most pollsters account for the composition of don't knows. Some of them ask a followup "squeeze" question, others use reallocation or imputation (which can get very complicated)
Others, however, don't do this, which most likely accounts for a chunk of the differences between the results that different pollsters are getting. Although with so many moving parts, there could be other things at play too. What we do know is that the number of undecideds tends to decline during the campaign as voters make their minds up, in which case we would expect to see convergence between different methodologies.
Sense check
We did get a useful sense check a few weeks ago on Super Thursday, where several of the mayoralties were polled. These races are becoming a lot more about the candidates, in a way that's historically been more common in the US than the UK, but the polling was candidate specific, so should be a good indicator of sample versus reality.
The average errors (which Andy Lawton helpfully compiled) across all polls and all races on 2nd May give a net skew of 3.3 points towards Labour, which is roughly its historical average in Westminster elections. So if (and it's reasonably-sized if) you can extrapolate to voters who only vote in general elections, then you end up at the narrower end of the range of polls than the middle.
The Guardian piece anonymously quotes another "polling industry expert" as expressing concern about the potential for polling error for data quality reasons – which some panels do indeed seem to be struggling with – but which don't obviously skew the risk to accuracy in any particular direction.
So there is no consistent pattern of red flags in polling, as there was in 2015 and 1992. |
|
Danny
Member
Posts: 10,364
|
Post by Danny on May 28, 2024 7:12:04 GMT
Seems the scandal over Diane Abbot has resurfaced. It seems the investigation into her behaviour was completed last december and she attended an antisemitism awareness course as required. However no decision has been made on whether to return to her the party whip. This is now rather urgent whether she is to be the local labour candidate, or not.
Labour person interviewed on R4 was asked about this, said he was not involved in the process. When asked persistently whether he had an opinion whether Abbot should resume being whipped, he said he had no opinon. Which is of course absurd.
|
|
|
|
Post by crossbat11 on May 28, 2024 7:16:47 GMT
Dave has now gone off you as well I haven’t gone off you Batty. You were kind to me when I was in hospital. Just part of my voluntary service role, Paul! |
|
steve
Member
Posts: 12,640
Member is Online
|
Post by steve on May 28, 2024 7:17:24 GMT
James Cleverly :" too many young people live in a bubble within their own communities "  |
|
