oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 26, 2024 17:50:51 GMT
Within the EU, you don’t necessarily know you are within the (right-wing, pro-capital, investment-limiting) rules until the EU has made a decision. We had to wait on the EU decision regarding saving the banks, and they decided to add in that we should split some up. Now we are out the EU it is easier, but indeed there is the threat of them going to court if we push it with subsidy etc. but that’s not the same and there may be more leeway. (Though the actions of the Americans may be shifting things our way anyway. The EU are allowing more investment now rather than suing the Americans. But they still get to decide which countries can do what).
Unsurprisingly, I agree - at least a union in which you have no formal input to the decision making process, and the political leader from one member wields an overwhelming number of card votes - like an unreconstructed TU at a Labour Conference.
As MSPs would be quick to tell you, in the UK you don’t necessarily know you are "within the rules" until the UKGov appointed Governor-General has made an arbitrary decision.
However, in a reasonably constructed Confederal Union, the benefits of common decision making outweigh the loss of some individual exercise of sovereignty. |
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Post by James E on May 26, 2024 18:03:17 GMT
graham (re tactical voting and seats which may be Lab & LD targets) " I disagree re- Wimbledon where Labour was a very clear second place in 2017 having held the seat 1997 - 2005. Good reason to think the 2019 result was an aberration due to the Brexit and Corbyn factors.Likely to be a three-way contest." Tactical voting is almost certainly unnecessary in Wimbledon. With a notional 39% vote share from 2019, the Tories are likely to be reduced to the mid 20s - the EC, Survation and YG models show, 23,24 and 25%. That's less than half of the combined LD and Lab vote. The models all show the LDs winning, narrowly with EC and comfortably with YG and Survation. I also think that the same is true of South Cambridgeshire, which was Con 44%, LD 41%, Lab 14%. If the Tory vote falls by 14 points ( I am expecting at least that) and LD & Lab collectively pick up 6 points, then it would be impossible for the Conservatives to win (Con 30%, LD + Lab 61%). For what it's worth, I predict LD 43, Con 28, Lab 20
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Post by mark61 on May 26, 2024 18:05:15 GMT
From the Grunge - "Grindr accused of treating gay man’s medical data like ‘piece of meat’" I thought that was rather the point of Grindr. Can I say that? Alec, are you missing your regular interaction with Danny! |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 26, 2024 18:12:46 GMT
If you want to engage in a reasoned discussion fine if you just want to whinge about your pet dislikes of other progressive parties maybe you could share it at The Canary you'll find plenty who agree with you No need to discuss it at all, matey. Just shut the fuck up. There you are, solved. I suggest you read the rules about postings by Mark before you comment. As you are a new member you may well have missed them. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/5We can do without gratuitous obscenity. |
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Post by jib on May 26, 2024 18:17:37 GMT
Your argument appears to be that there may be some advantages to being outwith a particular political and economic union. Unsurprisingly, I agree - at least a union in which you have no formal input to the decision making process, and the political leader from one member wields an overwhelming number of card votes - like an unreconstructed TU at a Labour Conference. As MSPs would be quick to tell you, in the UK you don’t necessarily know you are "within the rules" until the UKGov appointed Governor-General has made an arbitrary decision. However, in a reasonably constructed Confederal Union, the benefits of common decision making outweigh the loss of some individual exercise of sovereignty. I can't see massive reform of the UK Constitution in a first term Labour Government, but I'm sure the Scot Parliament and a 96 member Senedd will be asking serious questions. The whole Barnett Formula issue is sure to feature once the chaos of Tory Regime is in cleared away, a serious amount of bleach and new carpets are needed after nightmare tenants like that. |
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Post by nickpoole on May 26, 2024 18:20:28 GMT
No need to discuss it at all, matey. Just shut the fuck up. There you are, solved. I suggest you read the rules about postings by Mark before you comment. As you are a new member you may well have missed them. ukpollingreport2.proboards.com/post/5We can do without gratuitous obscenity. I assume you are taking the piss. |
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Post by laszlo4new on May 26, 2024 18:35:16 GMT
Just because of the national service.
I was conscripted when I was 18, and served a year. Nobody in the regiment liked it at all.
The I was conscripted when I was 24 for half a year, OK, I became a captain, and I was offered a job (which I didn't take). Nobody in the company took any of the offers. At least the 1.5 years is recognised in my pension.
I was officially demobilised when I was 55 (rank of a major).
The Tory plan is just a newspaper-filling nonsense. It is not needed, and if it is not military, then social movements can be used.
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Post by jib on May 26, 2024 18:41:03 GMT
I assume you are taking the piss.  |
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oldnat
Member
Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
Posts: 6,131
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Post by oldnat on May 26, 2024 18:44:08 GMT
For some years, the Scottish and Irish governments have been negotiating increased access for Irish boats to the fishing grounds around Rockall. Fishing is a devolved issue. That had been successfully done, but needed the signature of the UK Foreign Secretary to ratify the deal, as it is an international agreement.
Cameron has vetoed the agreement, for purely party political reasons, now that an election has been called.
It's not just that the (almost totally English) Conservatives ride roughshod over devolved matters, but that the UK farce of a "constitution" allows a UKGov Minister to do so whenever they wish.
www.thenational.scot/news/24347056.david-cameron-vetoes-rockall-fishing-agreement-scotland-ireland/?ref=twtrec
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Post by mark61 on May 26, 2024 18:47:35 GMT
Thinking about the forthcoming Campaign, who will be put forward to carry the Load? For each Party obviously the Leader but who else? For Labour I guess Racheal Reeves, Wes Streeting and Angela for the faithful, backed up by Yvette Cooper, Jonathan Ashworth ( who I find a bit underwhelming but to be fair doesn't drop any clangers) Maybe Jess Phillips. Not sure Lammy moves the dial much nor Nandy.
For The Conservative with so many stepping down it is more of a problem added to which having been in Govt many are somewhat shop soiled and the problem with a divided Party is that some are willing the PM to fail. So Mr Sunak will do the heavy lifting, hard to see Cameron doing much work so likely to be Cleverly( a clear failure in normative determinism) and probably Shapps, Coutinho and Trott. Now I know I'm a Labour supporter but I think the Labour team better but am interested in what you all think.
With regards Lib Dems I'm sure Steve can help but I guess in addition to the leader it will be Daisy Cooper and Layla Moran.
Apologies that this is an England centric post but my musings on Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland probably would not be worth reading!
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 26, 2024 18:51:14 GMT
More in Common Scotland
Labour 35%
SNP 30%
Conservatives 17%
Liberal Democrats at 10%
Reform UK 4%
Greens at 3%
@moreincommon_
poll of 1,016 Scottish voters between May 22 and 24.
First Scottish Westminster poll since election was called.
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Post by Rafwan on May 26, 2024 18:57:31 GMT
domjg He becomes the first and I very much expect the last contributor I've blocked there's only room for so much shite! Oh, c’mon, Steve, man up! This is not like you at all!! |
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Post by catmanjeff on May 26, 2024 18:58:03 GMT
 Hi all, I hope everyone is well. I've been away doing lots of life things for some time, so haven't been active on political forums. Now the jungle election drums are beating, I'd thought I'd a look back here. While all things point to a substantial Labour victory, my own patch (the New Dewsbury and Batley seat, from the old Batley and Spen) looks more spicy than it might first appear. Attachment DeletedIn the recent local elections, independents smashed the Labour candidates, and some Labour Councillors left the party. It's easy to say it was about Gaza, but there was a feeling that voters who have voted Labour for years felt ignored and taken for granted. The Labour Council (Kirklees) has been poor to lousy for sometime. When a credible independent stood, they did well. The Conservatives are dead around here I think, and Reform, Green and Lib Dem token candidates that will not do well. Therefore, an Independent could do well, and the people touting to stand are well known community leaders who were behind the strongly winning independents. Labour has not yet chosen a candidate as far as I know. The previous incumbent (Kim Leadbeater) is moving to Spen Valley, the adjacent seat following the boundary changes. The previously strong Labour areas are not too enamoured with Starmer's Labour, so there is some work to do to secure the seat. |
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patrickbrian
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These things seem small and undistinguishable, like far off mountains turned into clouds
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Post by patrickbrian on May 26, 2024 19:04:22 GMT
Mark 61
I seem to remember Blair in 97 putting a lot of emphasis on "the Team" - and we saw a lot of Harriet Harman in particular. This time out, Starmer is clearly giving exposure to Reeves and Rayner, along with Streeting. I look forward to seeing a few more of them. But as you say, Sunak has a problem getting 'the team' out - firstly because despite being in power so few of his cabinet have made any positive impression on the general public, secondly because many of them will be fighting to retain their own seats, (remember when Chris Patten lost his, despite masterminding a Tory victory?) And thirdly because they seem to hate him anyway.
It's Rishi's first go at leading an election campaign. He seems to be spectacularly bad at it, but doesn't look as if he's going to get much help. Cleverly, and Shapps probably. maybe the woman at education. Badenoch??? Mordaunt??? I'd be surprised!
I occasionally wonder if Rishi's real aim now is to go down in history (as the biggest election loser of all time..) If you're going to fail, fail big.
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Post by graham on May 26, 2024 19:26:44 GMT
graham (re tactical voting and seats which may be Lab & LD targets) "I disagree re- Wimbledon where Labour was a very clear second place in 2017 having held the seat 1997 - 2005. Good reason to think the 2019 result was an aberration due to the Brexit and Corbyn factors.Likely to be a three-way contest." Tactical voting is almost certainly unnecessary in Wimbledon. With a notional 39% vote share from 2019, the Tories are likely to be reduced to the mid 20s - the EC, Survation and YG models show, 23,24 and 25%. That's less than half of the combined LD and Lab vote. The models all show the LDs winning, narrowly with EC and comfortably with YG and Survation. I also think that the same is true of South Cambridgeshire, which was Con 44%, LD 41%, Lab 14%. If the Tory vote falls by 14 points ( I am expecting at least that) and LD & Lab collectively pick up 6 points, then it would be impossible for the Conservatives to win (Con 30%, LD + Lab 61%). For what it's worth, I predict LD 43, Con 28, Lab 20 Re- South Cambridgeshire. It was interesting and perhaps surprising that at this month's PCC election the Tories narrowly outpolled the LDs in that district with Labour running a close third. The boundaries do not entirely coincide with the parliamentary seat and do not include the ward added to the seat from Cambridge which is likely to be helpful to Labour. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 26, 2024 19:28:57 GMT
I miss Trevor too He could be incredibly obtuse and irritating but there was often some interesting stuff in amongst the white noise Yes, it could be variable because he tended to fly a lot of kites without necessarily checking them through first. The board quite often did the checking and his position would quite often adjust accordingly! But there was quite a lot of useful material mixed in there. Not only that but his exchanges with others could also often lead to them coming up with a lot of interesting stuff as well, along with some corrections. Colin meanwhile had a lot of knowledge on some things, whether QE, or anthropology, or conservation etc… and it can be interesting and useful to learn different perspectives |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 26, 2024 19:34:44 GMT
Even the prime minister looks as if he isn’t sure whether to fight this election. His body language during the first three days of the campaign has suggested a man yearning for Santa Monica. He only gets out of bed through a misplaced sense of duty. I thought it bad enough seeing Sunak on his brewery tour, but trying to lay bricks in his thousand pound suit.... If I was a bricklayer, and had a fancy suit, would I be wearing it on the job? I saw some people lounging in the back of the video, who looked like they were some of the genuine staff, thinking 'what a plonker!' Johnson would have had a laugh about it and clowned around. Making the joke against himself that it was all a bit silly, but still getting the publicity as a comedy act. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 26, 2024 19:48:14 GMT
Paul
Our minds have become linked🤔
Fuck.
I was going to say that😁
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steve
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Post by steve on May 26, 2024 19:51:24 GMT
"Oh, c’mon, Steve, man up! This is not like you at all!!"
I've mellowed since I became a grandad life's to short to engage with every passing twat🤔
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 26, 2024 19:55:14 GMT
From the Grunge - "Grindr accused of treating gay man’s medical data like ‘piece of meat’" I thought that was rather the point of Grindr. Can I say that? Grindr has optional fields where you can insert various bits of personal information if you wish, which other users can then read. Including HIV status and last date you had an HIV test. They also added one for covid vaccination. This seems to be about people receiving adverts targeted based upon the information they have added: not clear that means they are sharing data, presumably they must be selecting ads to show in-house. Its exactly what google and all other internet companies do. They have also carried ads which look like they are placed by the NHS, evidently targeted at gay men. Better than running them in the Guardian? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 26, 2024 19:55:56 GMT
"We can do without gratuitous obscenity."
Non gratuitous obscenity is of course fine, I hope, otherwise I'm a bit buggered.
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Post by jib on May 26, 2024 19:58:30 GMT
It's been an interesting first few days of the campaign.
I now know Labour won't put up taxes and intend employing a good few ,000 frontline public sector workers.
The Tories are still stuck in gimmick world, and the national service nonsense will presumably be flushed as soon as they can without anyone noticing. What a stupid bunch the Tories are, Rwanda, HS2, Liz Truss, and now that.
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Post by Rafwan on May 26, 2024 20:05:26 GMT
"Oh, c’mon, Steve, man up! This is not like you at all!!" I've mellowed since I became a grandad life's to short to engage with every passing twat🤔 Yeah. Babies, eh?!! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 26, 2024 20:28:20 GMT
graham (re tactical voting and seats which may be Lab & LD targets) " I disagree re- Wimbledon where Labour was a very clear second place in 2017 having held the seat 1997 - 2005. Good reason to think the 2019 result was an aberration due to the Brexit and Corbyn factors.Likely to be a three-way contest." Tactical voting is almost certainly unnecessary in Wimbledon. With a notional 39% vote share from 2019, the Tories are likely to be reduced to the mid 20s - the EC, Survation and YG models show, 23,24 and 25%. That's less than half of the combined LD and Lab vote. The models all show the LDs winning, narrowly with EC and comfortably with YG and Survation. I also think that the same is true of South Cambridgeshire, which was Con 44%, LD 41%, Lab 14%. If the Tory vote falls by 14 points ( I am expecting at least that) and LD & Lab collectively pick up 6 points, then it would be impossible for the Conservatives to win (Con 30%, LD + Lab 61%). For what it's worth, I predict LD 43, Con 28, Lab 20 I'm with graham on Wimbledon. Labour will win it easily, Con second, Lib Dems third. 2019 is a bad guide. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 26, 2024 20:29:32 GMT
Just because of the national service. I was conscripted when I was 18, and served a year. Nobody in the regiment liked it at all. The I was conscripted when I was 24 for half a year, OK, I became a captain, and I was offered a job (which I didn't take). Nobody in the company took any of the offers. At least the 1.5 years is recognised in my pension. I was officially demobilised when I was 55 (rank of a major). The Tory plan is just a newspaper-filling nonsense. It is not needed, and if it is not military, then social movements can be used. Hi Lazlo - I wish you would post more often. We could do with the variety. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 26, 2024 20:33:48 GMT
Thinking about the forthcoming Campaign, who will be put forward to carry the Load? For each Party obviously the Leader but who else? For Labour I guess Racheal Reeves, Wes Streeting and Angela for the faithful, backed up by Yvette Cooper, Jonathan Ashworth ( who I find a bit underwhelming but to be fair doesn't drop any clangers) Maybe Jess Phillips. Not sure Lammy moves the dial much nor Nandy. For The Conservative with so many stepping down it is more of a problem added to which having been in Govt many are somewhat shop soiled and the problem with a divided Party is that some are willing the PM to fail. So Mr Sunak will do the heavy lifting, hard to see Cameron doing much work so likely to be Cleverly( a clear failure in normative determinism) and probably Shapps, Coutinho and Trott. Now I know I'm a Labour supporter but I think the Labour team better but am interested in what you all think. With regards Lib Dems I'm sure Steve can help but I guess in addition to the leader it will be Daisy Cooper and Layla Moran. Apologies that this is an England centric post but my musings on Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland probably would not be worth reading! Not Phillips. She is persona non grata with the leadership for resigning over Gaza. Otherwise the list you gave for Labour, including Lammy and a little bit of Miliband. EDIT - also Pat McFadden for Labour. |
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Post by Mark on May 26, 2024 20:35:06 GMT
A thought occured to me.
While my own bias may lead to seeing it more, it seems that, only a few days in, the tories have made more gaffes than any party would ever make during the whole campaign.
The thing is this...they are not stupid...well, not all of them...and whatever else you think of him, Sunak certainly isn't.
"Oh, but, he's not good at campaigning..." - not even Theresa May made this many obvious gaffes.
The natural conclusion that lends itself, therefore, is....
Are they delibarately trying to lose?
If the answer is yes, the next question has to be....is there something coming down the line that they know about but we don't - and if so, what?
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 26, 2024 20:36:50 GMT
Hi all, I hope everyone is well. I've been away doing lots of life things for some time, so haven't been active on political forums. Now the jungle election drums are beating, I'd thought I'd a look back here. While all things point to a substantial Labour victory, my own patch (the New Dewsbury and Batley seat, from the old Batley and Spen) looks more spicy than it might first appear. View AttachmentIn the recent local elections, independents smashed the Labour candidates, and some Labour Councillors left the party. It's easy to say it was about Gaza, but there was a feeling that voters who have voted Labour for years felt ignored and taken for granted. The Labour Council (Kirklees) has been poor to lousy for sometime. When a credible independent stood, they did well. The Conservatives are dead around here I think, and Reform, Green and Lib Dem token candidates that will not do well. Therefore, an Independent could do well, and the people touting to stand are well known community leaders who were behind the strongly winning independents. Labour has not yet chosen a candidate as far as I know. The previous incumbent (Kim Leadbeater) is moving to Spen Valley, the adjacent seat following the boundary changes. The previously strong Labour areas are not too enamoured with Starmer's Labour, so there is some work to do to secure the seat. The difference is that a GE is about who governs, so Labour will win (for this election at least). |
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Post by jib on May 26, 2024 20:39:37 GMT
A thought occured to me. While my own bias may lead to seeing it more, it seems that, only a few days in, the tories have made more gaffes than any party would ever make during the whole campaign. The thing is this...they are not stupid...well, not all of them...and whatever else you think of him, Sunak certainly isn't. "Oh, but, he's not good at campaigning..." - not even Theresa May made this many obvious gaffes. The natural conclusion that lends itself, therefore, is.... Are they delibarately trying to lose? If the answer is yes, the next question has to be....is there something coming down the line that they know about but we don't - and if so, what? I'm afraid they really are....just incompetent. The BoJo steadies the ship but as soon as the rats threw him overboard.....  |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 26, 2024 20:44:49 GMT
I'm afraid they really are....just incompetent. The BoJo steadies the ship but as soon as the rats threw him overboard..... Johnson threw himself overboard. Any other interpretation is rewriting history. But you are correct that Sunak and his advisors are incompetent. |
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