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Post by crossbat11 on May 23, 2024 16:17:33 GMT
I used it and then adjusted a bit according to gut feel. EDIT: I hope 'gut feel' is still allowed and isn't modern slang for a weird fetish or something.  Depends whose gut you are feeling  As mercian well knows, a gut feel was an optional extra on the now sadly scuppered Droitwich floating pleasuredome known as the "Burlesque Bargepole". |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 16:17:39 GMT
4 tory MPs so far today have announced they are not standing at the election |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 16:20:28 GMT
4 tory MPs so far today have announced they are not standing at the election It is really legal for Candidate T.B.C. to stand in so many seats at the same time?! |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 16:22:55 GMT
I doubt it Labour's vote share is massive which means fortunately Corbyn's self indulgence doesn't make a victory for anyone else more likely, Labour could afford to lose nearly half their support and still win. Just checking the odds on Labrokes who have put up a lot of constituency betting now. Although they don't have an Islington North constituency betting they do have a Corbyn special which has him 4/6 on to win- as yet you can't bet on the Labour candidate. Greens also odds on favourites in Bristol Central and Labour odds on in North East Somerset (smiley), but as we all know political betting does not necessarily reflect the position on the ground and some can be people betting on what they want to happen. As rehearsed before, I think betting mostly just follows the opinion polls, Electoral Compass, etc. The punters don't have a magic insight into ballots that have not yet been cast. I don't gamble but I'm tempted to place a wager on Labour winning Bristol Central if the odds are good. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 23, 2024 16:34:34 GMT
Just checking the odds on Labrokes who have put up a lot of constituency betting now. Although they don't have an Islington North constituency betting they do have a Corbyn special which has him 4/6 on to win- as yet you can't bet on the Labour candidate. Greens also odds on favourites in Bristol Central and Labour odds on in North East Somerset (smiley), but as we all know political betting does not necessarily reflect the position on the ground and some can be people betting on what they want to happen. As rehearsed before, I think betting mostly just follows the opinion polls, Electoral Compass, etc. The punters don't have a magic insight into ballots that have not yet been cast. I don't gamble but I'm tempted to place a wager on Labour winning Bristol Central if the odds are good. We have been through multiple election cycles where political betting has been shown to be much less accurate than the polls, that I can't understand why they even get brought up. Professional betters will be trying to 'cover the spread' by placing on both ends at the right time so they get a return either way, while 'regular punters' will be betting for mainly emotional reasons. I have bet on a political outcome precisely once, in 2010, and because there was a massive difference between the Betting 'Wisdom of the Crowds' of what was going to happen and what statistical models suggested was going to happen. (Coalitions are the Black Swan of British Politics.) |
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Post by chrisc on May 23, 2024 16:39:16 GMT
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Post by alec on May 23, 2024 16:40:37 GMT
Astonishing migration figures again from the ONS. In 2023, the equivalent of 1.8% of the entire UK population arrived here, with the net migration figure adding just over 1% to the UK population. mercian posted some figures on this recently and got the usual kicking, but folks really need to wake up to this; it's not sustainable, it's not democratically supported, and if we don't wake up to this, in a short period of time the resistance to rapid social change that continued mass migration will bring is going to become a severe political problem, on top of the continuation of overcrowding as the UK population keeps getting bigger and bigger. Yes, there will be lots of cries of racism, but that's exactly what greeted UKIP, and look who won. There are genuine issues here, and if they are not dealt with through liberal democratic means, they'll be dealt with by the far right. |
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Post by shevii on May 23, 2024 16:47:00 GMT
As rehearsed before, I think betting mostly just follows the opinion polls, Electoral Compass, etc. The punters don't have a magic insight into ballots that have not yet been cast. I don't gamble but I'm tempted to place a wager on Labour winning Bristol Central if the odds are good. 5/4 is what they are offering on Labour. |
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Post by moby on May 23, 2024 16:50:08 GMT
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 16:58:07 GMT
Astonishing migration figures again from the ONS. In 2023, the equivalent of 1.8% of the entire UK population arrived here, with the net migration figure adding just over 1% to the UK population. mercian posted some figures on this recently and got the usual kicking, but folks really need to wake up to this; it's not sustainable, it's not democratically supported, and if we don't wake up to this, in a short period of time the resistance to rapid social change that continued mass migration will bring is going to become a severe political problem, on top of the continuation of overcrowding as the UK population keeps getting bigger and bigger. Yes, there will be lots of cries of racism, but that's exactly what greeted UKIP, and look who won. There are genuine issues here, and if they are not dealt with through liberal democratic means, they'll be dealt with by the far right. Thank you. Good to know I'm not a lone voice on this. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 16:59:43 GMT
Astonishing migration figures again from the ONS. In 2023, the equivalent of 1.8% of the entire UK population arrived here, with the net migration figure adding just over 1% to the UK population. mercian posted some figures on this recently and got the usual kicking, but folks really need to wake up to this; it's not sustainable, it's not democratically supported, and if we don't wake up to this, in a short period of time the resistance to rapid social change that continued mass migration will bring is going to become a severe political problem, on top of the continuation of overcrowding as the UK population keeps getting bigger and bigger. Yes, there will be lots of cries of racism, but that's exactly what greeted UKIP, and look who won. There are genuine issues here, and if they are not dealt with through liberal democratic means, they'll be dealt with by the far right. I was interested, during my recent stay in Darlington Memorial Hospital, at the really high percentage of non-English accents - especially at the higher levels of consultant etc. All of them absolutely excellent of course although I will have a lot to pass on to my GP tomorrow about the appalling lack of information I was given, from treatment to meal times it was all a fucking mystery. |
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Post by barbara on May 23, 2024 17:07:34 GMT
It is really legal for Candidate T.B.C. to stand in so many seats at the same time?! Why can't you just answer a reasonable question without the little side snipe? |
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Post by johntel on May 23, 2024 17:08:16 GMT
On the LDs, so it looks like they are going to step away from the national campaign and really focus on 80 odd seats. To me that seems sensible in terms of resource, and in seats where Labour effectively wont campaign will probably pay dividends. Also Davey just hasn't broken through with the electorate, so the local approach looks sensible. What do others think? Round here in Surrey that just means a continuation of the (successful) campaign that's been ongoing all year and through the local elections. The timing of the GE is good! |
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Post by barbara on May 23, 2024 17:08:31 GMT
Just checking the odds on Labrokes who have put up a lot of constituency betting now. Although they don't have an Islington North constituency betting they do have a Corbyn special which has him 4/6 on to win- as yet you can't bet on the Labour candidate. Greens also odds on favourites in Bristol Central and Labour odds on in North East Somerset (smiley), but as we all know political betting does not necessarily reflect the position on the ground and some can be people betting on what they want to happen. As rehearsed before, I think betting mostly just follows the opinion polls, Electoral Compass, etc. The punters don't have a magic insight into ballots that have not yet been cast. I don't gamble but I'm tempted to place a wager on Labour winning Bristol Central if the odds are good. I hope not. That's my second Green prediction! |
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Post by johntel on May 23, 2024 17:09:40 GMT
So out of interest, how many of us are using the EC tool as the base for their predictions? For mine, used it them moved some from LD to Tory! Really sorry Steve. I don't use any tools except my own eyes and ears |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 17:09:46 GMT
First poll since election announced, Labour lead on 17 up 1 'First Moreincommon poll conducted entirely since the campaign was launched Labour lead by 17 points on 44%, while the Conservatives sit on 27%, Reform UK on 10% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.' x.com/LukeTryl/status/1793675769358758010 |
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Post by James E on May 23, 2024 17:13:02 GMT
We've had a More in Common poll with fieldwork of 22-23 May, so this spans both before and after* the General Election was announced:
Lab 44% (+1)
Con 27% ( 0)
LD 9% (0)
Ref 10% (-1)
Grn 5% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
The 17-point Lab lead compares to an average of 15.5% with MiC so far this year - they adjust their figures as Opinium do.
I hadn't checked any MiC tables before, but did so this time. Their unadjusted figures would put Labour 20 points ahead. Their geographical cross-breaks show exactly the same pattern as all other pollsters, with larger swings in the South and Midlands of England, and the Conservatives vote losses proportionately larger-than-average there too (especially in the Midlands).
EDIT
* As Neil has advised, MiC say this was conducted after the GE was announced. If that's the case, they have been amazingly quick.
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 17:16:31 GMT
James E"We've had a More in Common poll with fieldwork of 22-23 May, so before the General Election was announced" Luke Tryl of More in Common says it was conducted entirely after the election was announced, so I assume after 5pm on the 22nd?
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Post by alec on May 23, 2024 17:19:03 GMT
@fecklessmiser - I know what you mean. Our GP surgery has even got someone from Weardale working there. Talk about funny accents!
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neilj
Member
Posts: 6,390
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 17:24:32 GMT
Margaret Hodge to stand down, in fairness at 79 she had a good innings in Parliament
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 17:37:58 GMT
As rehearsed before, I think betting mostly just follows the opinion polls, Electoral Compass, etc. The punters don't have a magic insight into ballots that have not yet been cast. I don't gamble but I'm tempted to place a wager on Labour winning Bristol Central if the odds are good. 5/4 is what they are offering on Labour. Not good enough! |
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,362
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 18:11:11 GMT
Astonishing migration figures again from the ONS. In 2023, the equivalent of 1.8% of the entire UK population arrived here, with the net migration figure adding just over 1% to the UK population. mercian posted some figures on this recently and got the usual kicking, but folks really need to wake up to this; it's not sustainable, it's not democratically supported, and if we don't wake up to this, in a short period of time the resistance to rapid social change that continued mass migration will bring is going to become a severe political problem, on top of the continuation of overcrowding as the UK population keeps getting bigger and bigger. Yes, there will be lots of cries of racism, but that's exactly what greeted UKIP, and look who won. There are genuine issues here, and if they are not dealt with through liberal democratic means, they'll be dealt with by the far right. Trouble is, immigration is the chosen solution by both lab and con to boost the Uk economy and solve labour shortages. Also avoids the costs of raising and educating children. Con said we had to leave the EU to stop immigration, which was total bollocks. What we need to do to stop immigration is choose to stop immigration. People crossing the channel in boats are completely irrelevant to the large majority of people arriving here by invitation. Except that the government stategy of refusing to process people arriving here has led to big numbers building up who arent allowed to work to support themselves, cannot be deported because they havnt been processed, and are being housed at our expense. Incidentally R4 had a program on university funding today. If I recall, they said universities are making a loss of a billion pounds a year on educating home UK students, which is indeed being made up by charges to foreign students. They said fees per student had been initially set to £9000 per head, which inflation has by now reduced to equivalent of £6000. This changed the funding situation from a modest profit to a strong loss. They said about 40 universities are making a consistent annual loss and so are at risk of bankruptcy. I think they said 3 or 4 are currently in serious trouble. Logically then to correct this, home student fees need to immediately rise to about £14,000 to correct the situation, which was originally determined so universities would make a profit to invest back into education. Obviously this is a big problem. Moreover, international competition for university places is increasing with some countries putting big sums into expanding their universities. So even assuming we decided to continue admitting students to the Uk who count as some of the immigrants, they may stop coming anyway.
Alternatively, we need to change the model of university education to make it cheaper. For example, something you commute to rather than live in local accommodation. This is already happening, apparently N England has much higher rates of students living at home. Id suspect thats because wages and living costs there are generally cheaper than the south, but university costs the same. People are being priced out of residential universities.
They also mentioned that while Scotland pays the fees for home Scottish students, it also still has quotas for number of places. More like the old English system.
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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 18:19:12 GMT
5/4 is what they are offering on Labour. Not good enough! I expect Labour's majority there to exceed 10,000. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 18:21:35 GMT
The Ever popular Crofty
Well The Crofty😋
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 18:25:44 GMT
Astonishing migration figures again from the ONS. In 2023, the equivalent of 1.8% of the entire UK population arrived here, with the net migration figure adding just over 1% to the UK population. mercian posted some figures on this recently and got the usual kicking, but folks really need to wake up to this; it's not sustainable, it's not democratically supported, and if we don't wake up to this, in a short period of time the resistance to rapid social change that continued mass migration will bring is going to become a severe political problem, on top of the continuation of overcrowding as the UK population keeps getting bigger and bigger. Yes, there will be lots of cries of racism, but that's exactly what greeted UKIP, and look who won. There are genuine issues here, and if they are not dealt with through liberal democratic means, they'll be dealt with by the far right. I don't think it is racist to discuss immigration at all; indeed it is an important topic and there clearly need to be policies around it. Indeed, it is likely that the figures for the last couple of years have been too high to become the norm. However, I am happy to defend significant levels of net immigration. Of the 685,000 net figure in 2023, around 42% came to work and 37% to study. Only 8% were asylum seekers. When you factor in the Ukraine/Hong Kong/Afghan settlement schemes as well, well over 90% of people coming were ones who the British government were happy to have come. With an aging population we need bright young keen people of working age and that is largely what we are getting. I work in an industry that desperately needs more skilled workers from overseas as well as more home trained ones - it isn't either/or, but both. You mention that the country is overcrowded. That is obviously a matter of subjective judgement. I don't agree it is; the real problem is we just don't build enough housing and infrastructure due to chronic levels of under-investment, which in turn is one of the main reasons for our sluggish economy. We could do with an epic building and renewal programme to overhaul our dismal infrastructure . On social cohesion, there is an issue that needs to be watched (I have always learned toward integration rather than multi-culturalism) but it is hugely overstated in the RoC media. I work with an incredibly diverse range of people and when you get to know them, their hopes, fears, interests, etc. are not that different from everyone's. They just want to make some money, raise some kids and have a peaceful life. As to the threat of the far right, worrying about the views of racists and fascists doesn't interest me at all - you don't defeat that ideology by caving in and trying to appease it. Extremists cannot be appeased, as they will always demand more. Racism has to be opposed, called out, confronted and shamed whenever it arises. Its enemy is truth and education and we could do with a lot more citizenship education in schools, another sector in a woeful state after years of right-wing rule and thinking. |
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Post by John Chanin on May 23, 2024 18:30:41 GMT
Astonishing migration figures again from the ONS. In 2023, the equivalent of 1.8% of the entire UK population arrived here, with the net migration figure adding just over 1% to the UK population. mercian posted some figures on this recently and got the usual kicking, but folks really need to wake up to this; it's not sustainable, it's not democratically supported, and if we don't wake up to this, in a short period of time the resistance to rapid social change that continued mass migration will bring is going to become a severe political problem, on top of the continuation of overcrowding as the UK population keeps getting bigger and bigger. Yes, there will be lots of cries of racism, but that's exactly what greeted UKIP, and look who won. There are genuine issues here, and if they are not dealt with through liberal democratic means, they'll be dealt with by the far right. I was interested, during my recent stay in Darlington Memorial Hospital, at the really high percentage of non-English accents - especially at the higher levels of consultant etc. All of them absolutely excellent of course although I will have a lot to pass on to my GP tomorrow about the appalling lack of information I was given, from treatment to meal times it was all a fucking mystery. I also have health problems at the moment, but every single person I have seen - GPs, nurses, radiographers, doctors- have been foreigners. No complaints from me about that (although lack of information is also a problem), but Britain is a rich country, there is no shortage of people wanting to be doctors and nurses, so why aren't we training them, rather than draining talent from countries who really need their health workers. I would like to see population declining, not just in UK but everywhere. I find it terrifying that world population has trebled in my lifetime. But sticking to Britain, it requires a complete rethink of our economy and public services - and although it's tabu to say so, more taxation. Currently the country is only kept going by immigration, which is why all the political discussion is farcical, and obsesses about small boats, when every politician knows there is currently no alternative to major immigration. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 18:36:02 GMT
He mentions a conservative 80:20 strategy. Which he describes as concentrating resources on the 80 most marginal con seats, and the 20 strongest. (not sure if that meant 20 least marginal marginals, isnt clear). But...on the figures we are looking at the 80 most marginal con seats are utterly lost already and they need to concentrate on seats with way stronger current majorities if they mean to save some. The strategy might make sense if they are hoping polling is all wrong and so they stand some chance of winning. In which case concentrating on the 80 most vulnerable might make sense as an attempt to keep a majority. IF the polling is all wrong. If the polling is correct, it isnt going to make much difference because it will be wasted effort and they will have ignored those seats truly in play.
The strategy seems to be designed to try to get a majority, but otherwise throw most con MPs to the wolves and encourage a labour landslide.
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Post by jayblanc on May 23, 2024 18:38:18 GMT
So out of interest, how many of us are using the EC tool as the base for their predictions? For mine, used it them moved some from LD to Tory! Really sorry Steve. I don't use any tools except my own eyes and ears That's a terrible way to assemble a bookshelf. |
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Danny
Member
Posts: 10,362
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 18:39:00 GMT
I was interested, during my recent stay in Darlington Memorial Hospital, at the really high percentage of non-English accents - especially at the higher levels of consultant etc. All of them absolutely excellent of course although I will have a lot to pass on to my GP tomorrow about the appalling lack of information I was given, from treatment to meal times it was all a fucking mystery. Yep, I noticed a lack of explanation. I suspect though that if you ask you might get? A lot of people totally do not want to know the details, so they wouldnt volunteer in case you dont want to know. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 18:48:54 GMT
pjw1961
I agree with almost all of your comment on immigration. Indeed, you might have added that a recent report suggested that the increased tax revenue from immigrants was enough to fund Sunak's tax cuts.
But your final "we could do with a lot more citizenship education in schools, another sector in a woeful state after years of right-wing rule and thinking." is somewhat lacking. Isn't that a dreadful comment on schooling in Wales, that Llafur imposed right-wing rule and thinking - or does your use of "our" only apply to England?
There is a finite amount of time available in the school day. If you want to add something, something else has to be reduced. The curriculum in Scotland was extensively rebuilt by the Lab/LD Executive, and has been continued by the SNP. That has resulted in great benefits (recognised by OECD) in developing "softer" skills among young folk, but at the expense of some of the knowledge memorisation.
To demand everything is to achieve nothing.
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