neilj
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 14:28:59 GMT
I used to be able to see twitter links without logging in but I can't any longer  . Musk trying to get more logins to attract advertisers I suppose. In short an ordinary woman is asked what she thought of Sunak by ITV News. She didn't know his name at first and when pointed out by the reporter he was P.M. said,with some justification, he hadn't been Prime Minister long enough to know |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 14:29:06 GMT
I gather that the Bill (and, therefore, the bill) on securing justice for sub-postmasters in England, Wales & NI will fall, due to the dissolution of Westminster.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Government's Post Office (Horizon System) Offences (Scotland) Bill - which is being considered by a committee of the whole parliament at stage 2 this afternoon - continues to progress. Consequently, those in Scotland, whose convictions are overturned will qualify for compensation of at least ÂŁ600,000 from UKGov. Seems not. From the Guardian: "Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, did not mention the tobacco and vapes bill when she made a business statement in the Commons covering bills that are expected to be passed in the âwash-upâ. She said that MPs were due to pass the finance bill, the digital markets, competition and consumers bill., and the Post Office (Horizon system) offences bill today. And she said tomorrow the victims and prisoners bill is due to get rushed through. Lucy Powell, Labour shadow: "Iâm pleased that very important commitments to the victims of the Post Office and infected blood scandals will be honoured in our final business this week." |
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Post by Rafwan on May 23, 2024 14:37:21 GMT
Sunakered inspecting a bottling plant, someone could have got him a stool. View AttachmentHow do you get away with it steve? I made one very mild joke about Sunak's height a while ago and was battered for it from all sides. I think you have done at least three in the last 24 hours! It is because you are one of the few responsible adults round here, whereas Steve is a much-loved thug. Long may you both continue in these respective roles. |
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Post by alec on May 23, 2024 14:38:02 GMT
Ukraine: Republican Speaker of the House here appearing to back the calls from the House Security Committee to let Ukraine use US weapons to attack targets in Russia. Getting harder and harder for Biden to maintain this daft restriction. x.com/KaterynaLis/status/1793291787064209574 |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 14:40:04 GMT
How do you get away with it steve? I made one very mild joke about Sunak's height a while ago and was battered for it from all sides. I think you have done at least three in the last 24 hours! It is because you are one of the few responsible adults round here, whereas Steve is a much-loved thug. Long may you both continue in these respective roles. Blimey, lumbered as designated driver again!  |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 14:49:08 GMT
"Blimey, lumbered as designated driver again!"
Can you reach the pedals?
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 14:50:41 GMT
"Blimey, lumbered as designated driver again!" Can you reach the pedals? 2" taller than Sunak! |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 14:54:31 GMT
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steve
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Posts: 12,638
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 14:56:48 GMT
"2" taller than Sunak!  |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 23, 2024 14:57:16 GMT
On the LDs, so it looks like they are going to step away from the national campaign and really focus on 80 odd seats. To me that seems sensible in terms of resource, and in seats where Labour effectively wont campaign will probably pay dividends. Also Davey just hasn't broken through with the electorate, so the local approach looks sensible. What do others think?
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 15:04:58 GMT
lululemonmustdobetterMakes sense, but isn't that more or less what they always do? And the other parties too though perhaps to a lesser extent for Con and Lab.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 23, 2024 15:05:58 GMT
So out of interest, how many of us are using the EC tool as the base for their predictions? For mine, used it them moved some from LD to Tory! Really sorry Steve.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 23, 2024 15:11:45 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter Makes sense, but isn't that more or less what they always do? And the other parties too though perhaps to a lesser extent for Con and Lab. , to certain degree yes. But normally the LD leader is more 'national focussed' etc, 'preparing for government' and all that. |
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 15:24:35 GMT
So out of interest, how many of us are using the EC tool as the base for their predictions? For mine, used it them moved some from LD to Tory! Really sorry Steve. I used it and then adjusted a bit according to gut feel. EDIT: I hope 'gut feel' is still allowed and isn't modern slang for a weird fetish or something.  |
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Post by jimjam on May 23, 2024 15:28:41 GMT
I did all the parties seats first then allocated Labour what was left.
Then adjusted slightly as I thought was a bit high for them
Having SNP get more seats, in effect, than Labour is perhaps questionable in my forecast but I think the SNP will net benefit from DK returnees more than anyone else in that polity.
NB) All questionable of course :-)
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 15:35:17 GMT
@savanta_UK
·
As the #GE2024 campaign kicks off, our latest research finds Labourâs Shad Cab âbig 4â have higher net favourability scores than their government counterparts.
Starmer (+1) vs Sunak (-22)
Reeves (+1) vs Hunt (-15)
Cooper (-1) vs Cleverly (-11)
Lammy (-6) vs Cameron (-13
Bizarrely 35% also appeared to think things can only get wetter was a successful launch.
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 15:36:58 GMT
lululemonmustdobetter"how many of us are using the EC tool as the base for their predictions? For mine, used it them moved some from LD to Tory" Move them back againâș
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 15:37:10 GMT
grahamâJeremy Corbyn will announce that he is standing against Labour as an independent candidateâ Telegraph Live Feed I expect him to win. I doubt it Labour's vote share is massive which means fortunately Corbyn's self indulgence doesn't make a victory for anyone else more likely, Labour could afford to lose nearly half their support and still win. But is it labours vote, or Corbyn's personal vote? His personal views have always been divergent from the mainstream of the party and this must be supported by his constituency organisation, which quite likely will stick with him. Corbyn's views as distinct from labour's views are pretty popular (perhaps equivalent to farage), and presumably matched to those of his constituency (whereas of course farage doesnt have an establish constituency base). |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 15:45:04 GMT
10 per cent fall in net migration
â Net migration stood at 685,000 at the end of last year, official figures have revealed. The latest Office for National Statistics immigration data showed a 10 per cent decline on the record high of 764,000 in 2022.
However, the December 2023 figure is three times the level recorded in 2019 when the Conservative Party pledged in its election manifesto to reduce overall numbers coming to the UK.â Times (Is that going to be enough to persuade those who left the Tories over the matter to return to them?) I heard a touch more detail on this, which said the number of immigrants has not fallen at all. But the number emigrating has increased. That could mean we had a break in people arriving during covid who might have been expected to leave in a year or two, so the post covid surge is now starting to leave. But alternatively, if that is native brits departing and the foreigners staying, then it could actually be rather bad news for those concerned about being swamped by foreigners. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 15:46:28 GMT
Sunakered inspecting a bottling plant, someone could have got him a stool. View AttachmentHow do you get away with it steve? I made one very mild joke about Sunak's height a while ago and was battered for it from all sides. I think you have done at least three in the last 24 hours! He shrank in the rain yesterday, so its now more obvious. (joke). metaphorically, he probably really did shrink. |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 15:46:43 GMT
Apparently I am the same height as Starmer, but 4" shorter than Ed Davey. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 15:49:49 GMT
On another blog, a Labour member with knowledge of Islington North suggests that the official Labour candidate will poll circa 20% - and has little doubt that no candidate will be close to Corbyn I donât see how anyone - insider or not - can estimate accurately how many thousands of unknown voters are going to vote in six weeks time. How do you suggest that works? Sounds like wishful thinking to me. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 15:50:43 GMT
So out of interest, how many of us are using the EC tool as the base for their predictions? For mine, used it them moved some from LD to Tory! Really sorry Steve. I didn't use it at all, as it ignores several 'political' factors I consider important, such as seat targeting, the number of local councillors as a proxy for campaigning strength, etc. That is why I end up with more Tories. I think they will hold a lot of rural and semi-rural seats EC gives to Labour due to weak Labour campaigns and the anti-Tory vote being confused as to whether to best vote Labour or Lib Dem. |
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pjw1961
Member
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 15:51:43 GMT
So out of interest, how many of us are using the EC tool as the base for their predictions? For mine, used it them moved some from LD to Tory! Really sorry Steve. I used it and then adjusted a bit according to gut feel. EDIT: I hope 'gut feel' is still allowed and isn't modern slang for a weird fetish or something. Depends whose gut you are feeling |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 15:52:01 GMT
I gather that the Bill (and, therefore, the bill) on securing justice for sub-postmasters in England, Wales & NI will fall, due to the dissolution of Westminster. A proper investigation of this would have seen them compensated ten years ago, so no excuse if the bill falls because someone called an election. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 16:00:26 GMT
@rafwan
âSteve is a much-loved thug.â
WellâŠthug.
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Post by shevii on May 23, 2024 16:09:45 GMT
I doubt it Labour's vote share is massive which means fortunately Corbyn's self indulgence doesn't make a victory for anyone else more likely, Labour could afford to lose nearly half their support and still win. Just checking the odds on Labrokes who have put up a lot of constituency betting now. Although they don't have an Islington North constituency betting they do have a Corbyn special which has him 4/6 on to win- as yet you can't bet on the Labour candidate. Greens also odds on favourites in Bristol Central and Labour odds on in North East Somerset (smiley), but as we all know political betting does not necessarily reflect the position on the ground and some can be people betting on what they want to happen. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,390
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 16:12:52 GMT
4 tory MPs so far today have announced they are not standing at the election
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Post by jayblanc on May 23, 2024 16:13:17 GMT
On the LDs, so it looks like they are going to step away from the national campaign and really focus on 80 odd seats. To me that seems sensible in terms of resource, and in seats where Labour effectively wont campaign will probably pay dividends. Also Davey just hasn't broken through with the electorate, so the local approach looks sensible. What do others think? I'd lay odds on the best strategy for the Lib Dems being ultra focus on tactical win seats, with retail politics of the local candidate going door to door. National and regional campaigns should be limited to the minimum possible spend needed to show their face. Say as little as possible of material policy in their fair-coverage press appearances, so that people can project what ever they think is good policy onto them. The target for the Lib Dems is to get more seats than the Conservatives, then they can pivot to campaigning the next election as the opposition. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 23, 2024 16:15:04 GMT
4 tory MPs so far today have announced they are not standing at the election It is really legal for Candidate T.B.C. to stand in so many seats at the same time?! |
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. Musk trying to get more logins to attract advertisers I suppose.
