Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 18:51:34 GMT
...when every politician knows there is currently no alternative to major immigration. Of course there is. Japan doesnt like immigrants, has falling birth rates like everywhere else developed, and is doing fine. And the only reason it is possible to get immigrants is because some countries still have high birth rates. This is going to end. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 18:59:07 GMT
There is a finite amount of time available in the school day. But its entirely possible much of it is wasted by bad teaching. And since this post was about Scotland, there are plenty of job adverts in S England asking teachers to relocate to Scotland. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 19:12:43 GMT
CH4 despatches suggesting potholes costing the UK economy £14bn a year. Although it would be cheaper to mend the potholes, this would require raising taxes and employing people to do the repairs. Neither of which con governments approve of. ITVs 'how broke is your council' suggests that the reason councils are not repairing potholes is because all the money is going on social care. Despatchs argues street calming schemes arent being used to improve traffic conditions for locals, but to catch motorists disobeying the restrictions and fine them to generate income. 20% of neighbourhood traffic reduction schemes have been undone because of demands from residents to remove them.
Also researched cost of travel by petrol or electric vehicle. 17p a mile for petrol. 7p mile for home charged electric but 22p a mile if you use a general on street fast charger. This may explain why sales of electric vehicles have stalled.
The silver lining may be that China is trying to flood the world with cheap(er) electric vehicles than western companies can build. So if we go to total reliance on Chinese made vehicles, we can at least save a bit.
Oh...and entirely different program today was discussing how Chinese made vehicles, well all electric vehicles, collect data about their occupants and can relay it back to the manufacturer. But if thats a chinese car in effect spying on UK government officials chatting in their vehicle? Plus the potential to disable vehicles in traffic, so want to gridlock a city...just stall some cars. Computer controlled cars open up a whole new risk to society.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 19:13:09 GMT
pjw1961
I agree with almost all of your comment on immigration. Indeed, you might have added that a recent report suggested that the increased tax revenue from immigrants was enough to fund Sunak's tax cuts.
But your final "we could do with a lot more citizenship education in schools, another sector in a woeful state after years of right-wing rule and thinking." is somewhat lacking. Isn't that a dreadful comment on schooling in Wales, that Llafur imposed right-wing rule and thinking - or does your use of "our" only apply to England?
There is a finite amount of time available in the school day. If you want to add something, something else has to be reduced. The curriculum in Scotland was extensively rebuilt by the Lab/LD Executive, and has been continued by the SNP. That has resulted in great benefits (recognised by OECD) in developing "softer" skills among young folk, but at the expense of some of the knowledge memorisation.
To demand everything is to achieve nothing. Since I have no knowledge of the Welsh education system, my comment was England only. The Scottish system sounds like the kind of thing to which I was alluding. The current English one is orientated toward what the Conservative government (not necessarily correctly) imagines employers want and to the passing of exams. Not just citizenship and the like (I have always thought there should be more teaching of basic financial skills) but 'arts' subjects like History and Geography have been significantly downplayed. As a historian, this does not please me. |
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Post by shevii on May 23, 2024 19:13:17 GMT
Election Maps UK
@electionmapsuk
·
1h
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 44% (+1)
CON: 27% (=)
RFM: 10% (-1)
LDM: 9% (=)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via
@moreincommon_
, 22-23 May.
Changes w/ 17-19 May.
Show more
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Post by James E on May 23, 2024 19:31:31 GMT
So out of interest, how many of us are using the EC tool as the base for their predictions? For mine, used it them moved some from LD to Tory! Really sorry Steve. It's a useful tool, but it does produce what may seem surprisingly large numbers of Lab and LD seats. If you use UNS rather than Electoral Calculus then this produces an implausibly low figure of just 10 or 11 Lab gains for each 1% swing. This isn't going to happen, but I thought I should mention that as a starting point. www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labourHowever, UNS does not work for large swings, and Labour in fact achieved significantly better at 14 seats per 1% swing in 1997 (147 gains divided by 10.5% GB swing), when UNS would also have produced just 10. I am very confident that figure will be exceeded this time. I've done some analysis of the six 'proper' MRPs we have had in the past 12 months, two each by YouGov, Survation, and FON*. In each case, I have compared the number of Labour gains shown, divided by the Con to Lab swing. So this is a measurement of the efficiency of the way labour are gaining and the Tories losing voters. The 'Lab gains per 1% swing' are : YouGov 14.7, and 14.1 (but the latter figure is reduced because of their 'unwinding' adjustment**) Survation 15.7 and 17.6 FON 16.5 and 15.9 All of these show a higher movement in seats than GE1997, although in some cases not by much. The average across all of these is 15.75 seats per point of swing. So with, say, a 14-point swing (Lab wins by 16.3%) they would get close to 420 seats. The figures produced by Electoral Calculus's seats calculator are just a little bit higher than this average, but well within the overall range of these MRPs. From various figures I have entered based around a 15% labour lead, their 'Lab gains per 1%' are around 16.8. So it would generate an extra 13 Labour gains in the example I have quoted above, with a 14% swing. I have not mentioned Con or LD seat losses/gains, but to be brief - Survation's MRPs produce what I think is too low a figure for the LDs, but I think both YG and FON may be a bit generous to them. I think that YG and FON are wise to use samples and modelling specific to LD seats and targets, whereas it looks to me like Survation do not. However, it is a tricky issue as to how to model for the substantial LD to Lab movement shown by polling in seats where both may potentially be competitive. As for the Tories - their losses per 1% swing against them range from 16-20, growing larger the lower their vote share goes (down to around 20-23%, where would be few left). What I haven't mentioned in this is the additional factor of tactical voting. While the benefit of this in the Lab/Con marginals is, in my view, exaggerated, it will add a few more seats and it is clear from both by-elections and polling such as that by Ashcroft that a significant proportion (50%?) of LD and Lab voters are willing to cast their vote tactically for each other. Because of this, and above all the continued proportionate pattern of the Conservatives' vote-losses, Electoral Calculus could well be about right in showing close to 17 Labour gains for each point of swing. * See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_predictionsI have ignored the 'Stonehaven' MRP with a total sample only 2,000, and would also ignore Focaldata, as their previous MRPs have contained basic errors, IMO. * see YouGov's explanation of their 'unwinding' adjustment here: yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seats |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 19:35:31 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 19:36:23 GMT
Thanks James.
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
Posts: 8,572
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 19:38:08 GMT
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 23, 2024 19:38:41 GMT
James E - excellent and informative post as usual.
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 19:50:26 GMT
There is a finite amount of time available in the school day. But its entirely possible much of it is wasted by bad teaching. And since this post was about Scotland, there are plenty of job adverts in S England asking teachers to relocate to Scotland.
My post concerned schooling everywhere. There are choices to be made in every system, but just demanding that there be more input on X, without reducing the non-X content just doesn't work. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 23, 2024 19:54:43 GMT
Jimmy E has joined Dr Mibbles in my pantheon of psephologists. David Butler and John Curtice there too These four people would comprise my ideal fantasy dinner party guest list. I may have to squeeze Beyonce in there too. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 20:04:33 GMT
The Scottish system sounds like the kind of thing to which I was alluding.
The initial 2000 Education (Scotland) Act was dire, and the simple repetition of the English based target setting model imposed by the execrable Brian Wilson as Education Minister in the Scottish Office, pre-devolution.
Once they realised that they were freed from the need to copy the model used by the UKGE, Labour in Scotland were able to commission investigations into alternative models which existed around the globe, and settled on a variation of the Australian system. |
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Post by jib on May 23, 2024 20:10:35 GMT
Simply looking at the voting patterns (millions) tells you a lot. Whilst Opinion Polls give you the mood, Labour will do well to trade places with the Tories in July. I have no idea where Lib Dem optimism comes from given most of their votes in 2019 were "lent", and a reversion to long term decline is likely. | Year | Tory | Lab | Lib Dem | | 2010 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 6.8 | | 2015 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 2.4 | | 2017 | 13.6 | 12.9 | 2.3 | | 2019 | 13.9 | 10.3 | 3.7 | | 2024 | ? | ? | ? |
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Post by hireton on May 23, 2024 20:11:57 GMT
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 20:18:48 GMT
I wonder how many of those REFUK voters are unreconstructed Thatcherites who, after Sunak's reprise of Gene Kelly, were confirmed in their dislike of Wets.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 20:26:44 GMT
From the Telegraph, another theory for the snap election!
Farage: Tories could have called election because I was going to stand
Nigel Farage has said the Conservatives called the general election because he was planning to stand as an MP.
The honorary president of Reform UK has said he will not stand for election on July 4.
“I have always said that there will be a moment when I throw my hat in the ring fully into British politics,” he told GB News. “I’ve also said aged 60, I’ve got one more card to play and it’s about when I play it.
“I had, to be honest with you, put in place some preparations to launch next week.
“I wonder whether the Conservative Party found out about it. I think the sense of panic that we saw yesterday, the badly prepared speech, might perhaps have prompted it a little bit.”
also…
Sunak rules out coalition with Reform
Rishi Sunak has ruled out a coalition with Reform UK.
Asked by LBC on a visit to the Port of Nigg in Scotland if he could rule out a coalition, the Prime Minister said: “Yes, of course I can rule that out.
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Post by RAF on May 23, 2024 20:28:58 GMT
From the Telegraph, for your enjoyment: Farage: Tories could have called election because I was going to standNigel Farage has said the Conservatives called the general election because he was planning to stand as an MP. The honorary president of Reform UK has said he will not stand for election on July 4.
“I have always said that there will be a moment when I throw my hat in the ring fully into British politics,” he told GB News. “I’ve also said aged 60, I’ve got one more card to play and it’s about when I play it.
“I had, to be honest with you, put in place some preparations to launch next week.
“I wonder whether the Conservative Party found out about it. I think the sense of panic that we saw yesterday, the badly prepared speech, might perhaps have prompted it a little bit.”
Farage gave another explanation yesterday - saying he would be working on the Trump campaign aa it had global significance. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,390
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 20:45:46 GMT
Another poll conducted after the election was called, below 20% for the first time ever with Techne. Even in Truss's final week they were on 22%. No sign of polls narrowing |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 20:54:01 GMT
“Reform UK poses a major threat to the Conservatives in 28 seats, analysis by The Telegraph shows.
YouGov data indicates that Richard Tice’s party is expected to win more than 20 per cent of the vote in a series of constituencies across England’s North and Midlands.
In these areas, Reform UK could deny the Conservatives a win by taking a slice of their support, challenging the party for victory, or leapfrogging the Tories and taking second place.
Unlike in 2019, when the Brexit Party agreed not to run in 317 Tory-held constituencies, Reform will field candidates in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland on July 4.””
Telegraph (who seem quite keen on Reform en ce moment)
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Post by johntel on May 23, 2024 21:05:02 GMT
From the Telegraph, for your enjoyment: Farage: Tories could have called election because I was going to stand
Farage gave another explanation yesterday - saying he would be working on the Trump campaign aa it had global significance. Tbh he's probably right. The US election is SO critical for our futures in the West. If (God-forbid) Trump wins then Farage will become the main opposition figure in the UK. |
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neilj
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Posts: 6,390
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 21:06:57 GMT
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
Member
A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
Posts: 6,721
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 21:13:39 GMT
unaccountably, couldn’t see “ short trousers” in the Sunak word cloud. People don’t always focus on what really matters, do they |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 21:14:24 GMT
Interesting story from Farmer's Weekly -
Meat smugglers using English vehicles to evade border checks
Criminal gangs are buying English-registered coaches and vans to smuggle large amounts of illegal meat into the country, Farmers Weekly has learned.
Commercial quantities of illegal and diseased meat are entering the UK to be sold into fast-food outlets, pubs, and to “unscrupulous” manufacturers, an online meeting between meat industry representatives and border officials was told on 17 May. Many are not coming here in vehicles with foreign number plates as they realise they are more likely to be stopped and checked
www.fwi.co.uk/news/crime/meat-smugglers-using-english-vehicles-to-evade-border-checks
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Post by matt126 on May 23, 2024 21:17:12 GMT
Most expect a mild swing back to the Tories in the campaign which is rationally what you would expect, but could it go the other way. Tory voters see they have no chance after a couple of weeks so start moving to Reform on on the right and to the Lib dems on the centre so the Lib Dems end up with more seats than ecpected and reform end up picking up a few seats as well
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 21:21:49 GMT
Sunak has had a very poor start, he could improve, but really can't see it
The more people see of him, the less they like him
Is it too late to revise my prediction 😀
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Danny
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Posts: 10,362
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 21:23:31 GMT
But its entirely possible much of it is wasted by bad teaching. And since this post was about Scotland, there are plenty of job adverts in S England asking teachers to relocate to Scotland.
My post concerned schooling everywhere. There are choices to be made in every system, but just demanding that there be more input on X, without reducing the non-X content just doesn't work.Ive told this story before. Mate of mine was on holiday in Scotland and got talking to the assistant in the gift shop, who was just off to university. They got talking about school somehow and he apparently impressed the assistant with his subject knowledge so much the assistant said she just wished he had been her teacher. Gave the impression there was as much of a shortage of good teachers in Scotland as England. Which kinda makes sense if Scotland feels it needs to pay more to try to get some better ones. In england anyway, it strikes me the issue is as much about workload and working conditions as it is pay. There are limits how much extra money can compensate you for poor working conditions, stress, etc. Frequently the idea of employers seems to be just pay more to get more work from one person, but it doesnt really work. I appreciate your point about finite time. Its just that there is a huge difference in what will be achieved in one hour by a bad teacher compared to a good one. |
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Post by James E on May 23, 2024 21:25:23 GMT
“ Reform UK poses a major threat to the Conservatives in 28 seats, analysis by The Telegraph shows.
YouGov data indicates that Richard Tice’s party is expected to win more than 20 per cent of the vote in a series of constituencies across England’s North and Midlands.
In these areas, Reform UK could deny the Conservatives a win by taking a slice of their support, challenging the party for victory, or leapfrogging the Tories and taking second place.
Unlike in 2019, when the Brexit Party agreed not to run in 317 Tory-held constituencies, Reform will field candidates in every seat in England, Wales and Scotland on July 4.”” Telegraph (who seem quite keen on Reform en ce moment) No offence intended to you, Carfrew, but this is absolute nonsense from the Telegraph. The YouGov MRP is the same one I linked earlier this evening. The link is produced again below, and the vote shares of all those seats where Refuk are on 20% or more are shown about half way down in YG's write-up. yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49061-yougov-mrp-labour-now-projected-to-win-over-400-seatsI wonder if the Telegraph are confusing the shades of blue used by YouGov, because once you realise that the Tory vote is the darker blue dot, it is clear that they are trailing Labour by 30-40 points in most of these seats where Refuk are doing well. The vast majority show a Labour vote larger than Con & Ref combined. By my reading of YouGov's constituency figures for Reform's strongest seats, there is only one where Labour are shown as winning, but the Conservatives could conceivably recover the small deficit by squeezing RefUk. That is South Basildon and East Thurrock in Essex. You might just about make a case out for Ashfield or Bassetlaw, but in each of these the Tories are a good 15 points behind Labour, and would need to take around three-quarters of those currently shown as supporting Refuk. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 21:28:09 GMT
I see the stupid tobacco sales ban bill is being ditched, it was just PR without substance. Peston thinks its being abandoned because some tories didnt like it anyway.
More concern might be the rental reform bill being diched, which again was already being hacked about by conservative MPs.
Flights to Rwanda seem to be off. Begs the question whether even had there been no election called, legal challenges night have caused them to be cancelled anyway. (that is, assuming they could find enough people who had disappeared to put on them)
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 21:31:54 GMT
We pay teachers (and health staff) more than in England, and that helps to attract good qualified teachers from other parts of the UK and Ireland. Unfortunately, the ludicrously high levels of salary required to get a visa to enter the UK, means that the supply from elsewhere is limited to those with a high earning spouse.
My post concerned schooling everywhere. There are choices to be made in every system, but just demanding that there be more input on X, without reducing the non-X content just doesn't work. Ive told this story before. Mate of mine was on holiday in Scotland and got talking to the assistant in the gift shop, who was just off to university. They got talking about school somehow and he apparently impressed the assistant with his subject knowledge so much the assistant said she just wished he had been her teacher. Gave the impression there was as much of a shortage of good teachers in Scotland as England. Which kinda makes sense if Scotland feels it needs to pay more to try to get some better ones. In england anyway, it strikes me the issue is as much about workload and working conditions as it is pay. There are limits how much extra money can compensate you for poor working conditions, stress, etc. Frequently the idea of employers seems to be just pay more to get more work from one person, but it doesnt really work. I appreciate your point about finite time. Its just that there is a huge difference in what will be achieved in one hour by a bad teacher compared to a good one. |
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