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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 12:13:00 GMT
For the first time ever I found a political video on my Facebook feed. It was an introductory from the Labour candidate in Newcastle under Lyme parroting the lines put out by Starmer, but it felt sensible, not overtly pushy. NuL has been Tory for two GE's now but was Labour before that. From a polling point of view, when you click in the 'laugh' emoji there were a list of names plus 5 more had clicked on it, possibly because it made them cheerful or that they felt what he said was ingenuous and he was 'having a laugh'. However when you click on the 'like' emoji there was a similar length list of names plus 52 others. Now if the 'laughs' were anti Labour and the 'likes' were pro Labour that's a pretty healthy margin. Newcastle under Lyme only fell to the Tories in 2019! |
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Post by mark61 on May 23, 2024 12:13:48 GMT
I wonder whether the further disclosures to the Covid inquiry, particularly concerning Procurement over the next few months may have contributed to the decision to go early. I have to say it's difficult to see Sunak out performing Starmer over the next few weeks. Sunak presents to me as Brittle and Tetchy whilst Starmer is no Blair, his performance in front of the cameras has improved markedly over the last 12 months.
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Post by alec on May 23, 2024 12:36:25 GMT
Our postal vote applications have gone in. Also interesting to note that it looks like we have a healthy choice of candidates this time round. Apart from the usual three, we have the greens standing, which could have been not so good news for Labour, but with a REFUKer also standing, I expect losses to the left might be neutered by damage to the Tory right flank.
Can't say this will be fun, as neither main party seems to have a handle on the big issues, in my view, but we'll see what happens.
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 23, 2024 12:42:55 GMT
I think it Will be interesting to see if he goes slick (Thatcher style) or tries the more traditional get out there Major/Corbyn approach. He does have cover from his fiends in the press. Are you sure? Obviously Mail and Telegraph. I get to see some Telegraph headlines on my news suggestion on yahoo and they are quite unhinged "most left wing government for decades" was the Sunday Telegraph's editor's comment piece today which defies logic and would be totally the wrong angle to take. But seems like the Sun will want to pick a winner and in general I think the news channels will give Starmer an easy ride. GB News likely has a different agenda to a Sunak government anyway and getting rid of him allows room for someone even more extreme. If I was a right wing editor I'd be planning a few little seeds of doubt for when Labour are in power that they will repeat relentlessly once Labour are there, but I wouldn't be going flat out to make myself look unhinged and no point going big on an election Labour are going to win. It was the Sun wot won it is more important to Murdoch than knocking a couple of points off the Labour lead. , yes I am sure! I agree there is a questions as to what Murdoch will. He could back either horse, hedge his bets with one paper one and the other tother. Possbile they could sit on the fence.
So most of our print media wont change their stance. Broadcast media challenges Labour more than the Tories. Even Sky, which is relatively neutral, trotted out Tory postions yesterday with little criticism of them. Tory politicians are generally given a freeer ride, especially on the BBC. Perhaps the tone may change with Labour looking like winning. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 12:48:54 GMT
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Post by alec on May 23, 2024 12:49:34 GMT
For those interested, this is a very thorough, multidisciplinary and multi-method review of mask and masking - journals.asm.org/doi/epub/10.1128/cmr.00124-23It debunks many of the myths that have been propagated by anti public health campaigners, through good quality scientific review, and offers some very balanced conclusions. The study is clear that masks work, respirators are much better than medical masks, and that mask mandates are effective. Much of the evidence that claims the opposite is poor quality and misinterpreted, with poor research design typifying many of the studies. They also find that some groups are adversely affected by mask wearing, while deaf people are harmed when others are wearing masks. They also find that there are environmental impacts from mask disposal, especially from single use masks. the review recommends further work, particularly into characterizing the situations when masks should be recommended or mandated, alongside disability focused work to support those adversely affected in masking situations. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 12:52:13 GMT
Hiya shevii , yes I am sure! I agree there is a questions as to what Murdoch will. He could back either horse, hedge his bets with one paper one and the other tother. Possbile they could sit on the fence.
So most of our print media wont change their stance. Broadcast media challenges Labour more than the Tories. Even Sky, which is relatively neutral, trotted out Tory postions yesterday with little criticism of them. Tory politicians are generally given a freeer ride, especially on the BBC. Perhaps the tone may change with Labour looking like winning. |
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Dave
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... I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high ..
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Post by Dave on May 23, 2024 12:57:03 GMT
It's expected around 25% of votes will be postal. Like me I would expect most to vote early, so it limits the time for the tories to turn around a significant section of voters That's a very good point. |
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Post by bardin1 on May 23, 2024 13:00:27 GMT
I ended up shouting at the radio I just laughed in despair, it was so bad I feel there should be some sort of humane cattle prod issued to interviewers where if a politician repeates themselves or meanders away from the question a small electrical shock could be applied. |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 13:01:59 GMT
Sunakered inspecting a bottling plant, someone could have got him a stool.  |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 13:06:07 GMT
“Jeremy Corbyn will announce that he is standing against Labour as an independent candidate”
Telegraph Live Feed
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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 13:08:32 GMT
“ Jeremy Corbyn will announce that he is standing against Labour as an independent candidate” Telegraph Live Feed I expect him to win. |
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Post by Mark on May 23, 2024 13:10:02 GMT
I ended up shouting at the radio I just laughed in despair, it was so bad I feel there should be some sort of humane cattle prod issued to interviewers where if a politician repeates themselves or meanders away from the question a small electrical shock could be applied. Can someone please post a link to the interview? |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 13:12:38 GMT
graham“Jeremy Corbyn will announce that he is standing against Labour as an independent candidate” Telegraph Live Feed I expect him to win. I doubt it Labour's vote share is massive which means fortunately Corbyn's self indulgence doesn't make a victory for anyone else more likely, Labour could afford to lose nearly half their support and still win.
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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 13:21:25 GMT
graham “Jeremy Corbyn will announce that he is standing against Labour as an independent candidate” Telegraph Live Feed I expect him to win. I doubt it Labour's vote share is massive which means fortunately Corbyn's self indulgence doesn't make a victory for anyone else more likely, Labour could afford to lose nearly half their support and still win. Dick Taverne held on in Lincoln in February 1974 as did Eddie Milne in Blyth . Dave Nellist very nearly retained hi s Coventry seat in 1992. Douglas Carswell also held Clacton in 2015 having defected to Ukip. Corbyn has a much higher profile than any of them. A contact I have in the seat who is a member of the CLP has expressed the view that Corbyn will 'walk it.' |
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Post by lefthanging on May 23, 2024 13:25:27 GMT
I get to see some Telegraph headlines on my news suggestion on yahoo and they are quite unhinged "most left wing government for decades" was the Sunday Telegraph's editor's comment piece today which defies logic and would be totally the wrong angle to take. I agree with you that the right-wing press are running some ludicrous attacks on Labour but is it really "unhinged" to think Starmer will lead the most left-wing government in decades? If Starmer turns out to be just a smidgen to the left of Blair and Brown - which I would strongly argue for given his plans to nationalise the railways and open a state-run energy company - then he would be leading the most left-wing government since 1979. That's almost half a century ago (and before I was born I might add!) |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 13:30:37 GMT
Osborne in the Guardian:
Sunak decided on summer poll after local elections because he thought Tory prospects wouldn't improve, Osborne claims
“George Osborne, the Conservative former chancellor, has claimed that Rishi Sunak decided to call a summer election after the local elections at the start of this month. Discussing the announcement on his Political Currency podcast, which he co-hosts with Ed Balls, the former Labour shadow chancellor, Osborne said:
I am told by the people I’ve been speaking to that there was a wide circle of up to 40 people involved in the planning of this, ever since the local elections.
The prime minister made a decision after the local elections that he was going to go for an early poll. It was a pretty brilliantly-held secret. And a secret held from most of the cabinet and from a lot of the broader Tory family …
This is what Downing Street is thinking. Things are basically not going to get any better for the prime minister. Nothing is shifting the polls. They’ve tried a series of announcements from defence spending to national insurance, tax cuts – things haven’t shifted.
He’s often accused of dithering, of overanalysing things and not taking bold decisions. He’s taken a bold decision to shift the dial, to get the campaign underway to force the choice to make people focus on the argument.”
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 13:40:32 GMT
10 per cent fall in net migration
“Net migration stood at 685,000 at the end of last year, official figures have revealed. The latest Office for National Statistics immigration data showed a 10 per cent decline on the record high of 764,000 in 2022.
However, the December 2023 figure is three times the level recorded in 2019 when the Conservative Party pledged in its election manifesto to reduce overall numbers coming to the UK.”
Times
(Is that going to be enough to persuade those who left the Tories over the matter to return to them?)
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 13:44:29 GMT
Sunakered inspecting a bottling plant, someone could have got him a stool. View AttachmentHow do you get away with it steve? I made one very mild joke about Sunak's height a while ago and was battered for it from all sides. I think you have done at least three in the last 24 hours! |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 13:45:33 GMT
Awkward “Rishi Sunak Takes Staged Election Questions from Conservative Councillors Posing as Ordinary Voters.” The tory councillors even went so far as dress up as workers by putting hi-vis vests on x.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1793612715455553566 |
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 13:51:45 GMT
Just a reminder there's an even more delusional right wing lunatic across the pond. 80% of what the rapist says is essentially lies , the other 20% is incomprehensible word salad. Here's an example. youtu.be/6nMeJ4ltBwA?si=sO6IZymEizy-bdoY |
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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 13:52:03 GMT
On another blog, a Labour member with knowledge of Islington North suggests that the official Labour candidate will poll circa 20% - and has little doubt that no candidate will be close to Corbyn.
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 13:53:42 GMT
Date ‘chosen to avoid clash with US elections’
A summer election was called to avoid a clash with the presidential election in America, a senior Tory MP has said
“Tobias Ellwood, former chairman of the House of Commons defence select committee, told Times Radio that Britain and America would not want to be “involved in domestic issues when an adversary, a competitor, would take full advantage of us looking in a different way, distracted, it is a prime opportunity to do something significant”.
He added: “This is where I look at things from the security perspective. It’s long been known that you cannot have Britain and America — it’s like an unwritten rule — going to the polls at the same time … all I’m saying is it limited the calendar.””
Times
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 13:55:29 GMT
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steve
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Post by steve on May 23, 2024 13:56:02 GMT
neilj "Rishi Sunak has been accused of faking support for the Conservative party, after taking two questions from supposedly ordinary members of the public, who turned out to be Conservative Councillors. Broadcasters on Thursday morning carried footage of an individual wearing a hi-vis jacket, asking the Prime Minister a question about his Rwanda scheme, during an event at McVitie’s Biscuit warehouse in Derbyshire. The man told Sunak that “the biggest issue is going to be immigration over this election campaign” before asking him whether “your Rwanda plan is going to see results and stop the small boats coming.” The Prime Minister thanked the man for his “important question.” However, neither Sunak, nor broadcasters informed viewers that the man asking the question was actually Conservative Leicestershire County Councillor Ross Hills." Dressing up is standard for Tory politicians, Spaffer had a whole set of dressing up outfits, which he could put on while pretending to be someone he wasn't and pointing at something that wasn't there.
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Post by jayblanc on May 23, 2024 14:03:34 GMT
I think it Will be interesting to see if he goes slick (Thatcher style) or tries the more traditional get out there Major/Corbyn approach. He does have cover from his fiends in the press. Sunak's only, forlorn, hope is to go slick - and keep the media at arm's lengh as much as possible. He's actually quite good at given a pre-written speech and copes ok when surrounded by friends. He is simply incapable of doing the get out there thing, as witnessed by.... * Things can only get wetter * Inability to pay by debit card * Inability to go off scripr at all * Looking really out of place when vitsiting football grounds (something Starmer looks comfortable doing) embarassingly so - despite actually being a footie fan. Both Major and Corbyn, whether or not you liked them or agreed with their politics, were good at the get out there approach, which they had been doing for years, but, also because they were genuine, heartfelt politicians. A quality that Sunak just doesn't have. If he goes for the get out there approach not only will the wheels come off, but will roll own the hill and smash on the ground below. The problem with Sunak attempting a "Go Slick" Thatcher style Stadium and Podium campaign is that it needs big orchestrated events where crowds of people give him standing ovations. There was a high level activist launch event for the campaign at the London’s Excel centre where Sunak was to give a prepared speech. It appears that at the last minute they decided to make the event private, and removed camera men, including forcing Sky News out of the site with security staff while they were live. This does not suggest that Sunak will be able to organise big slick events either, because he doesn't have the activists on his side, and keeps getting wrong footed on presentation. Sunak's inability to decide if he wanted to appeal to Moderate voters or Reform voters means he's alienated both sides of the Conservative party, and there's no sign of enthusiastic support. No one seems inclined to save Sunak from errors. |
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Post by thylacine on May 23, 2024 14:06:32 GMT
Sunakered inspecting a bottling plant, someone could have got him a stool. View AttachmentHow do you get away with it steve? I made one very mild joke about Sunak's height a while ago and was battered for it from all sides. I think you have done at least three in the last 24 hours! Might have something to do with Colin's strategic retreat from the board 😂 |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 14:07:04 GMT
I gather that the Bill (and, therefore, the bill) on securing justice for sub-postmasters in England, Wales & NI will fall, due to the dissolution of Westminster.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Government's Post Office (Horizon System) Offences (Scotland) Bill - which is being considered by a committee of the whole parliament at stage 2 this afternoon - continues to progress. Consequently, those in Scotland, whose convictions are overturned will qualify for compensation of at least £600,000 from UKGov.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 14:10:08 GMT
jayblanc
"No one seems inclined to save Sunak from errors."
Including the staff in Downing St, who didn't bring a brolly out to the steps, when the downpour started.
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Post by mercian on May 23, 2024 14:21:19 GMT
I used to be able to see twitter links without logging in but I can't any longer  . Musk trying to get more logins to attract advertisers I suppose. |
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. Musk trying to get more logins to attract advertisers I suppose.