pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 9:35:24 GMT
Oh, so I posted my prediction on the dedicated thread. Feel a little bit nervous predicting circa 200 gains for Labour - but then again Attlee managed 239 in '45. Will we get a chance to alter our predictions half-way through if desired?
So I feel I still fall prey of skittish notions that the Tories have some ace up their sleeve! 1945 was the last General Election to be called in July (5th July), by a Conservative PM, after the Tories had been in power for 14 years, some of it in coalition. |
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 9:38:03 GMT
Got a hunch that Sunak will prove to be a very poor campaigner. Freudian slip?  |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 23, 2024 9:38:58 GMT
Oh, so I posted my prediction on the dedicated thread. Feel a little bit nervous predicting circa 200 gains for Labour - but then again Attlee managed 239 in '45. Will we get a chance to alter our predictions half-way through if desired?
So I feel I still fall prey of skittish notions that the Tories have some ace up their sleeve! 1945 was the last General Election to be called in July (5th July), by a Conservative PM, after the Tories had been in power for 14 years, some of it in coalition. |
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Post by James E on May 23, 2024 9:41:57 GMT
Labour lead at 25 points in this week's YouGov poll for The Time, Swingback has started 😀 CON 21 (+1) LAB 46 (-1) LIB DEM 9 (=) REF UK 12 (+1) GRN 7 (-1) SNP 3 (=) Fieldwork 21 - 22 May YouGov's tables are now available, and I have used these to update my usual running 6-poll averages: All GBLab 45.7% (+12.7) Con 19.7% (-25) Swing Con to Lab 19% LondonLab 53% (+5) Con 14% (-18) Swing Con to Lab 11.5% South EnglandLab 38% (+15) Con 24% (-31) LibDem 13.5% (-3.5) Swing Con to Lab 23% MidlandsLab 45% (+12) Con 23% (-32) Swing Con to Lab 22% North EnglandLab 54% (+11) Con 17% (-22) Swing Con to Lab 16.5% ScotlandLab 37% (+18) Con 14% (-11) SNP 30 % (-15) Swing SNP to Lab 16.5% WalesLab 49% (+8) Con 18% (-18) Swing Con to Lab 13% RemainLab 59% (+10) Con 11% (-8) Swing Con to Lab 9% LeaveLab 26% (+12) Con 32% (-42) Swing Con to Lab 27% ABC1Lab 48% (+15) Con 18% (-25) Swing Con to Lab 20% C2DELab 42% (+9) Con 22% (-26) Swing Con to Lab 18.5% All much the same patterns as we have seen for the past year or two. The Conservatives' vote losses are still proportional or perhaps greater-than-proportional. Taking their current VI as a percentage of their 2019 vote, nearly all of the figures are within a point or two of the 44% overall figure, and their better proportions are in their weak areas - so the opposite of what the assumption of a Uniform Swing would show. Conservative vote-share retention as a proportion of their GE2019 vote.
Headline Figure 44.0% (19.7/44.7) London 43.8% (14/32) South England 43.6% (24/55) Midlands 41.8% (23/55) North England 43.6% (17/39) Scotland 56% (14/25) Wales 50% (18/36) Remain 58% (11/19) Leave 43.6% (32.3/74) ABC1 41.8% (18/43) C2DE 45.8% (22/48) It will be interesting to use these in comparison to YouGov's figures during the campaign. YouGov's most recent MRP included an adjustment they call 'unwinding' which moves their constituency results in the direction of past results, so more like UNS. If this starts to happen over the next 6 weeks, the effect should be visible in these figures, particularly for the South and Midlands of England. |
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 9:48:13 GMT
1945 was the last General Election to be called in July (5th July), by a Conservative PM, after the Tories had been in power for 14 years, some of it in coalition. According to Sunak we should re-elect him because one might be just around the corner. Not much of a pitch, given that he doesn't exactly give off Churchill vibes. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 23, 2024 9:51:46 GMT
As everyone else is going for polling-based predictions, I'm going for a calendar-based prediction. The last July election (on July 5th) and the only one since 1918 was the Labour landslide of 1945, with a Labour majority of 145. I am allowing for some swing-back to the Tories during the campaign. I expect the Liberal Democrats to do better than the Liberals and National Liberals of 1945 (23 seats between them), but 35-40 seats is my expectation (yes, steve I'm a pessimist). I think that the SNP will manage to hold between 20 and 25 seats. Add 1 for the Speaker, 1 (±1) for the Greens, 3 (±1) for Plaid Cymru and 18 for Northern Ireland, giving: Lab 397 Con 170 Others 82 (plus the Speaker) Lab majority 145 The 1945 election was for a House of Commons with only 640 members, so Labour achieved their majority with 393 MPs. |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 23, 2024 9:52:53 GMT
Will we get a chance to alter our predictions half-way through if desired?
Well pollsters do it and gradually converge so don’t see why we can’t lulu |
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Post by hireton on May 23, 2024 10:09:29 GMT
So far the Tory launch and campaign feels like an episode of In the Thick of It. Tory supporters must hope that things can only get better but it may be a forlorn hope.
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Post by jib on May 23, 2024 10:14:14 GMT
My prediction, subject to revision as the campaign progresses:
Lab 325
Tories 245
SNP 32
LDems 25
PC 2
Green 2
Sinn Fein to thrash DUP
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 10:30:26 GMT
So far the Tory launch and campaign feels like an episode of In the Thick of It. Tory supporters must hope that things can only get better but it may be a forlorn hope. The Scottish school holidays issue was a terrible error to make. The Conservatives might as well have put up a huge sign saying "we don't give a toss about Scotland." (I have no idea whether Labour would have made the same mistake, but it was not their call). |
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pjw1961
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Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 10:36:21 GMT
A crossbat11 special - a local government by-election of no great meaning to anyone outside of the locality (and doubtless to few there). I doubt Rishi will be dropping in for a photo-op. MELTON BC; Wymondham (Con resigned) Candidates: CHUBB, David Joseph (Conservative) SEAWARD, Samantha (Independent) 2023: Con 302; Lab 119 |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 10:39:19 GMT
So far the Tory launch and campaign feels like an episode of In the Thick of It. Tory supporters must hope that things can only get better but it may be a forlorn hope. The Scottish school holidays issue was a terrible error to make. The Conservatives might as well have put up a huge sign saying "we don't give a toss about Scotland." (I have no idea whether Labour would have made the same mistake, but it was not their call). |
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Post by barbara on May 23, 2024 10:57:40 GMT
Did anyone listen to the Sunak interview on R4. I thought he was charmless, defensive, rude, brow beating and full of verbal diarrhoea, driven purely by a need to get his clichés out. There was no real dialogue, listening, reflection or dialogue. In fact he was so 'over the top' in tone he seemed to be on speed. Techy sums it up for me I just listened to it. Good grief! a mixture of lies, defamation, arrogance, tetchiness, overspeaking the interviewer, objecting to the questions and rote repetition. I think if anything, his personal score will plummet if he carries on like this. |
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 11:00:21 GMT
I just listened to it. Good grief! a mixture of lies, defamation, arrogance, tetchiness, overspeaking the interviewer, objecting to the questions and rote repetition. I think if anything, his personal score will plummet if he carries on like this. I did suggest that far from the actual campaign helping the Tories it will completely stuff them. It’s in their nature to be obnoxious. |
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Post by graham on May 23, 2024 11:16:20 GMT
So far the Tory launch and campaign feels like an episode of In the Thick of It. Tory supporters must hope that things can only get better but it may be a forlorn hope. The Scottish school holidays issue was a terrible error to make. The Conservatives might as well have put up a huge sign saying "we don't give a toss about Scotland." (I have no idea whether Labour would have made the same mistake, but it was not their call). Well the last July election was held in 1945 on July 5th. Scotland, however, on that occasion voted a week later on July 12th for reasons I cannot recall I am not aware that the school holidays was a cause for concern on that occasion. All votes were counted on July 26th. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 11:21:09 GMT
According to Sunak we should re-elect him because one might be just around the corner. Not much of a pitch, given that he doesn't exactly give off Churchill vibes. After being part of a government which has spent 14 years running down the armed forces. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 11:24:31 GMT
I just listened to it. Good grief! a mixture of lies, defamation, arrogance, tetchiness, overspeaking the interviewer, objecting to the questions and rote repetition. I think if anything, his personal score will plummet if he carries on like this. I ended up shouting at the radio |
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Post by James E on May 23, 2024 11:32:34 GMT
My prediction, subject to revision as the campaign progresses: Lab 325 Tories 245 SNP 32 LDems 25 PC 2 Green 2 Sinn Fein to thrash DUPIt's worth having a read of joeboy 's comments on Northern Ireland. I don't think there are any DUP/SF contests, or at least those seats that are close are already held by SF, and will probably move to becoming safer for them. The two seats that might change hands are Foyle, where SF is challenging the SDLP, and East Belfast, where Alliance are challenging the DUP. Other than those, I'd not expect any changes. The DUP may well be able to claw back some of the support they have lost to TUV, just as the smaller parties are often squeezed under FPTP in England, Scotland and Wales. So, in seats, it is likely to be SF 7 , SDLP 2 or SF 8, SDLP 1 ...and DUP 8, Alliance 1 or DUP 7, Alliance 2 |
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Post by shevii on May 23, 2024 11:38:26 GMT
I think it Will be interesting to see if he goes slick (Thatcher style) or tries the more traditional get out there Major/Corbyn approach. He does have cover from his fiends in the press. Are you sure? Obviously Mail and Telegraph. I get to see some Telegraph headlines on my news suggestion on yahoo and they are quite unhinged "most left wing government for decades" was the Sunday Telegraph's editor's comment piece today which defies logic and would be totally the wrong angle to take. But seems like the Sun will want to pick a winner and in general I think the news channels will give Starmer an easy ride. GB News likely has a different agenda to a Sunak government anyway and getting rid of him allows room for someone even more extreme. If I was a right wing editor I'd be planning a few little seeds of doubt for when Labour are in power that they will repeat relentlessly once Labour are there, but I wouldn't be going flat out to make myself look unhinged and no point going big on an election Labour are going to win. It was the Sun wot won it is more important to Murdoch than knocking a couple of points off the Labour lead. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 11:39:43 GMT
"Sunak confirms Rwanda deportation flights will not leave until after the election" That was the inevitable result of calling the election,purdah rules would probably have prevented them any way. At least this particular element of international disgrace will not now take place. Conservatives have never seriously tried to get this done, some on their own side accused the government of deliberate delay and passing laws they knew wouldnt work. Its not clear even the latest law would in the end get past international law. On the whole it has been better for con to be seen to be trying to deport illegal immigrants against the evil courts, foreigners, etc, than to have actually done it. I think it suits the government very well indeed to claim they were on the point of deporting billions of illegal refugees, and if re-elected will do so at once. Though i think the reality is that if they were re-elected, what would happen next is another round of legal objections and yet more legislation. Seems likely we have to leave the international treaties to make it work. |
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 23, 2024 11:43:17 GMT
It's expected around 25% of votes will be postal. Like me I would expect most to vote early, so it limits the time for the tories to turn around a significant section of voters
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Post by Mark on May 23, 2024 11:47:39 GMT
Got a hunch that Sunak will prove to be a very poor campaigner. Sunak's only, forlorn, hope is to go slick - and keep the media at arm's lengh as much as possible. He's actually quite good at given a pre-written speech and copes ok when surrounded by friends. He is simply incapable of doing the get out there thing, as witnessed by.... * Things can only get wetter * Inability to pay by debit card * Inability to go off scripr at all * Looking really out of place when vitsiting football grounds (something Starmer looks comfortable doing) embarassingly so - despite actually being a footie fan. Both Major and Corbyn, whether or not you liked them or agreed with their politics, were good at the get out there approach, which they had been doing for years, but, also because they were genuine, heartfelt politicians. A quality that Sunak just doesn't have. If he goes for the get out there approach not only will the wheels come off, but will roll own the hill and smash on the ground below. |
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Post by alec on May 23, 2024 11:50:20 GMT
hireton - "So far the Tory launch and campaign feels like an episode of In the Thick of It. Tory supporters must hope that things can only get better but it may be a forlorn hope." "Things Can Only Get Wetter" shurely?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 23, 2024 11:50:40 GMT
It's expected around 25% of votes will be postal. Like me I would expect most to vote early, so it limits the time for the tories to turn around a significant section of voters Cant help thinking it was an awful waste of money to have just held local elections but while the staff were there anyway, not held the national election. |
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2024 11:56:08 GMT
Politics Live on BBC2 news reporting Sunak is visiting a brewery in South Wales. Let's hope a p*ss up isn't on the agenda.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 23, 2024 11:56:52 GMT
Ringing endorsement of the Johnson government from Simon Case, and a timely reminder that things went pear shaped right from the start of the current parliament: “good people were just being smashed to pieces” as officials tried to battle the chaos Case described Johnson’s Downing Street as “a rats’ nest”, saying there was a “culture of fear” around Dominic Cummings “Crisis + pygmies = toxic behaviour.” “The arrogance and the waste. And the contempt for cabinet.” “the most actively sexist environment I have ever worked in”. “The setup in No 10 is too mad to touch.” Johnson’s Downing Street, ... involved people who were “mad” and “poisonous”, and that the atmosphere meant some people did not want to join the team www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/23/boris-johnson-government-chaos-smashed-good-people-to-pieces-case-tells-covid-inquiry |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 11:56:54 GMT
The Scottish school holidays issue was a terrible error to make. The Conservatives might as well have put up a huge sign saying "we don't give a toss about Scotland." (I have no idea whether Labour would have made the same mistake, but it was not their call). Well the last July election was held in 1945 on July 5th. Scotland, however, on that occasion voted a week later on July 12th for reasons I cannot recall I am not aware that the school holidays was a cause for concern on that occasion. All votes were counted on July 26th. 
However, in 1945, few were away from home during holidays, and the Forces votes were organised separately, so voter turnout and availability of polling/counting staff wasn't a problem. With the prevalence of postal voting, I doubt that turnout will be much affected - although the logistical problems for Returning Officers will be severe this time.
As always, in politics, it's perception that matters, and within moments of the announcement, broadcasters in Scotland were making the obvious point that Scottish holidays hadn't occurred to Sunak at all. It was poor optics that poured further rain on his parade. |
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Post by Mark on May 23, 2024 11:58:44 GMT
*** ADMIN ***
Now that the starting gun has been fired, there will be a new main polling thread at the weekend.
That will run until the weekend before the election when another main polling thread will be started, taking us into the election itself.
Also, I will be deleting attachments early next week (I'm aiming for Monday, but, may be slightly after) to, hopefully, prevent running out of space during the campaign.
I'll be concentrating on older attachments - and larger ones but, hereby give notice that if you want to save anything, now is the time to do so.
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Post by steamdrivenandy on May 23, 2024 12:03:43 GMT
For the first time ever I found a political video on my Facebook feed.
It was an introductory from the Labour candidate in Newcastle under Lyme parroting the lines put out by Starmer, but it felt sensible, not overtly pushy. NuL has been Tory for two GE's now but was Labour before that.
From a polling point of view, when you click in the 'laugh' emoji there were a list of names plus 5 more had clicked on it, possibly because it made them cheerful or that they felt what he said was ingenuous and he was 'having a laugh'. However when you click on the 'like' emoji there was a similar length list of names plus 52 others.
Now if the 'laughs' were anti Labour and the 'likes' were pro Labour that's a pretty healthy margin.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 23, 2024 12:05:18 GMT
Rishi Sunak taking a brave approach to small talk at a brewery in Wales.
He asked workers if they're looking forward to 'all the football'. One quickly pointed out that Wales haven't qualified for the Euros"
x.com/TomLarkinSky/status/1793608546015490381
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