2 May 2024 : LAB 44% / CON 26% / LDM 10% / REF 10%

[neilj]

Current Labour lead is 21 points with 6 weeks to go. Even if the tories reduce that lead by 2% each and every week for the next 6 weeks the lead will still be 9%. With the high likelihood of tactical voting that would still be a healthy Labour majority

It would take a reduction in the lead by 3% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a hung Parliament. Which would still most certainly result in a minority Labour Government

It would take a reduction in the lead by 4% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a tory majority and even then, not a big one

[Danny]

I keep hearing this claim that Uk growth is better than other comparable countries. But last time this came up, the reality was that slower recovery post covid had left us severely lagging comparable countries, so what was now touted as great news, was in reality still catching up with others.

It looks very like this election has been timed for the best available economic window, with the government believing that calling the election later would show the situation deteriorating again on just about every index.

Sunak on R4 just blamed the current economic difficulties on Putin's invasion of Ukraine. This simply is not true. The major cause of the world recession in recent years was covid lockdown. Not covid, but the reaction put in place by world governments attempting to contain it. A deliberate act which would obviously cause this world recession. On top of this we had a situation where fuel producers were already winding down production because of the official goal of decarbonisation, which has since been significantly reversed. Fuel and other prices were already soaring before Putin invaded, and frankly there has been a negligible effect overall on sanctions on Russian fuel, they have simply sold the same fuel to other countries. Yes, it caused disruption in European countries expecting to be supplied by russia, but that too was in part because of a failure to prepare against such risks. The Uk had already closed its long term gas storage facility because it didnt need it. A significant factor was OPEC and similar producers who used the opportunity created as economies started to ramp up after lockdown, to ensure a shortage persisted and they could reap a huge windfall on the higher prices. Of course, our government declined to tax this windfall gained by Uk companies.

Sunak being very very annoying refusing to answer the awkward questions. Sunak promising to increase defence spending...but not a peep about how this would be paid for when both the OBR and IMF think the national accounts already cannot be balanced except by rising national debt. and now laughing off making his announcement in the rain. He didnt look like he was laughing yesterday.

[Danny]

May 23, 2024 7:15:22 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

So, regarding this idea that Labour may not do as well as polls predict, since it requires an unprecedented swing on election day. How many on this board think that actually, there will be an unprecedented record-breaking swing to Labour on election day?

More likely than not. In the discussions yesterday I also heard received wisdom that election campaigns have seldom made much difference to the final outcome. All the normal indicators suggest a result somewhere between a decent labour win and conservative anihilation.

If that doesnt happen, why do we bother talking about polling, because patently it is meaningless.

[Danny]

May 23, 2024 7:10:45 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

BJ saved them in 2019 and they seem to think they can get away with anything after that 

BJ did not save them. Cometh the hour, cometh the man, and he was the best candidate for PM at that time, but he was not the key. What was key was the promise to get brexit done immediately which united leave voters once more behind con, after years of failing to deliver brexit.

Whereas lab failed to unite remain voters under its banner in the way they had done in 2017, and so leave won by default.

[johntel]

Lab 406
Con 158
LD 44
SNP 24
PC 3
Green 0 (Brighton loss to Labour)
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18 

[crossbat11]

May 23, 2024 7:22:11 GMT neilj said:

Current Labour lead is 21 points with 6 weeks to go. Even if the tories reduce that lead by 2% each and every week for the next 6 weeks the lead will still be 9%. With the high likelihood of tactical voting that would still be a healthy Labour majority

It would take a reduction in the lead by 3% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a hung Parliament. Which would still most certainly result in a minority Labour Government

It would take a reduction in the lead by 4% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a tory majority and even then, not a big one

Yes, that's quite an implausible recovery velocity over six weeks, especially when you've been plumbing almost historically low depths in the polls and your leader has grotesquely poor personal approval ratings. Not impossible, I admit, but highly unlikely.

All that said, and I haven't deposited my election result prediction on Mercian's specific thread yet ( I'll probably do that just after the BBC exit poll is announced at 10.01pm on the evening of July 4th), but I don't expect Labour to win by 20% in the vote share. The campaign will harden up the undecideds in terms of final vote choice, as well as alienating some completely, and I expect a mild but not spectacular Tory recovery as some of the faithful hear the final call to prayer.

40 Lab 30 Tory is my hunch for now. No landslide but decent Labour overall majority of between 30 and 50 seats.

[nickpoole]

I predict that Con will get less than a hundred seats - Lab with a massive majority

LD and SNP to get the same number of seats

[shevii]

May 22, 2024 21:49:37 GMT leftieliberal said:

May 22, 2024 21:32:20 GMT shevii said:

The Greens stood in 476 constituencies in 2017 when there was no pact, so maybe 4-500. 632 doesn't sound believable.

Were you talking about Reform still (by way of comparison to how many candidates the Greens got in 2017) or actually the Greens? 

I'm 99% sure Greens will stand in every seat- they have said it repeatedly and the structure is such that the regional or national party can intervene if a constituency party is barely functional.  They also have an oven ready vetted bank of paper candidates (didn't help them in Rochdale by election!) but there could be some admin misses if the regional party assumes someone locally is dealing with the paperwork and they don't get around to it before the deadline.  The remaining seats to call in the North West have all had candidates putting their name forward but some elections have been re-opened because there was only one candidate and some diversity type rules but that will obviously be overriden now the election has been called.

Possible Greens will rethink after the election as very likely there are going to be significant lost deposits with the 5% threshold and for a party of 50k members that could be quite a hit unless most are self funded by the candidates or supporters.

Too early to make a prediction until we know who all the independents are- I would expect Corbyn and Abbott to win if they stood and if Abbott doesn't get the whip back.  I don't think Galloway will as he maxed out on low turnout but I wouldn't rule out some other Muslim orientated gain in Tower Hamlets or elsewhere with a high Muslim population. Pure wishful thinking on my part but I haven't entirely ruled out Leanne Mohamad in Ilford North :-)

At the moment I am very much leaning towards the high end of the Lab majority predictions as I don't believe the Tories will get their act together at all based on them having so many one time voters in 2019 and the shambles their own traditional voters can see before their eyes. No reason for Tories to be scared of Starmer either despite the best efforts of the Daily Telegraph.  They will still get some swingback from the don't knows but hard to see swingback from the reform vote as we already know from polling that this doesn't necessarily help Tories that much as the reform vote is a mixture of wouldn't vote otherwise or scattered in other directions than Tory.

[pjw1961]

May 22, 2024 22:42:42 GMT peterbell said:

Kevin McGuire (Mirror) on Sky commenting that the Sun comments re today's announcement are very much "sitting on the fence" Suspects that they may well end up supporting Lab - they have form on this and when they have supported Lab it has been a good Lab victory.

But in this case the Sun are following, not leading. Just trying to get on the winning side rather than moving voters. 

[steve]

"Sunak confirms Rwanda deportation flights will not leave until after the election"

That was the inevitable result of calling the election,purdah rules would probably have prevented them any way.

At least this particular element of international disgrace will not now take place.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 23, 2024 7:35:21 GMT Danny said:

May 23, 2024 7:10:45 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

BJ saved them in 2019 and they seem to think they can get away with anything after that 

BJ did not save them. Cometh the hour, cometh the man, and he was the best candidate for PM at that time, but he was not the key. What was key was the promise to get brexit done immediately which united leave voters once more behind con, after years of failing to deliver brexit.

Whereas lab failed to unite remain voters under its banner in the way they had done in 2017, and so leave won by default.

Yes well if BJ made that promise then surely he was a factor

[shevii]

May 23, 2024 7:22:11 GMT neilj said:

Current Labour lead is 21 points with 6 weeks to go. Even if the tories reduce that lead by 2% each and every week for the next 6 weeks the lead will still be 9%. With the high likelihood of tactical voting that would still be a healthy Labour majority

It would take a reduction in the lead by 3% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a hung Parliament. Which would still most certainly result in a minority Labour Government

It would take a reduction in the lead by 4% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a tory majority and even then, not a big one

There's a double whammy with the tactical vote too.  Presently you can vote for who you like and still get rid of the Tories, if the vote narrows then there's more incentive to vote tactically.  Some of that was possibly in play with the London Mayor, although maybe the pool of tactical voters is mostly limited to those who will vote tactically anyway?

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

People say that governments tend to recover some ground in a campaign? How much is that a given though? How likely is it Labour might extend their lead?

[moby]

Did anyone listen to the Sunak interview on R4. I thought he was charmless, defensive, rude, brow beating and full of verbal diarrhoea, driven purely by a need to get his clichés out. There was no real dialogue, listening or reflection. In fact he was so 'over the top' in tone he seemed to be on speed.

[pjw1961]

May 23, 2024 7:51:18 GMT steve said:

"Sunak confirms Rwanda deportation flights will not leave until after the election"

That was the inevitable result of calling the election,purdah rules would probably have prevented them any way.

At least this particular element of international disgrace will not now take place.

I seem to recall making in response to one of Trevor's posts on Rwanda, a prediction that the legislation would pass but no flight would ever take place. Looks I stand a good chance of being right. 

[graham]

May 23, 2024 7:15:22 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

So, regarding this idea that Labour may not do as well as polls predict, since it requires an unprecedented swing on election day. How many on this board think that actually, there will be an unprecedented record-breaking swing to Labour on election day?

If Labour makes significant gains from the SNP, the swing needed for a majority is probably circa 8% - lower than the 10% achieved in 1997.

[Dave]

May 23, 2024 7:15:22 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

So, regarding this idea that Labour may not do as well as polls predict, since it requires an unprecedented swing on election day. How many on this board think that actually, there will be an unprecedented record-breaking swing to Labour on election day?

I for one think that Carfrew.

2019 was a particularly unusual election.  The prime example, given away by Johnson when he said that they had borrowed the votes of voters in the red wall.  I think he got that right.  Many 2019 Tory voters and the ones who made the difference to the electoral maths, were voters who hadn't previously voted Tory.  This 'group' were prepared to vote for Johnson's iteration of the party on the basis of the promises regarding getting Brexit done and let's not forget, levelling up.  His was a pitch to a particular Labour voter - and one that exists in big numbers - and after all, you can't get much more socialist than truly levelling up.  

So whilst many who voted Tory in 2019 were Tory voters for that particular election, many of them were one-off Tory voters who the party could only have kept longer term had they delivered the lovely, wonderful, unproblematic Brexit that they promised, plus the levelling up so desperately required in these unequal countries of ours.  

The overall point being of course, that they were not dyed-in-the-wool decade-in-decade-out Tories.  The political journalists who push this unprecedented swing line are technically right, but should be able to understand that it's not as straight forward as that for this particular election.

I suspect this might turn out to be true in future elections as well, albeit maybe not to quite the same degree as will in 2024.  Ties have been loosened.  Those ex-Labourites who voted Tory in 2019 have done it once.  They could do it again in the future, not necessarily with the Tories though. Even if many of them vote Labour this time, their electoral umbilical chords that they severed in 2019 can not be re-grown any time soon.  The ease with which they will vote for others has increased.  Same with the Tories.  Many of the more liberal, remainer types have walked away from their party.  Not all will go back to them in '29.  Even those that do, will not be as loyal to them again as they once were.  


Tectonic plates have shifted in different directions, not all good, but not all bad either for the major parties imho.   

[neilj]

May 23, 2024 7:57:24 GMT moby said:

Did anyone listen to the Sunak interview on R4. I thought he was charmless, defensive, rude, brow beating and full of verbal diarrhoea, driven purely by a need to get his clichés out. There was no real dialogue, listening, reflection or dialogue. In fact he was so 'over the top' in tone he seemed to be on speed.

Techy sums it up for me

[neilj]

Farage has bottled it and is not standing

[Danny]

Alistair capbell on R4 just now arguing he believes reform Uk will go all out to try to win any MPS, and might have some chances. The question presumably is if Farage is still interested in politcs, because he would seem to have a choice now of either letting it all go or fighting this election as the best chance he will ever get.

If he does, the same logic seems to apply as in 2005, UKIP takes votes 2:1 from conservatives rather than labour. As we have seen it doing lately in polling. So the result would be to encourage a labour landslide, conservative wipeout and just a possible blip MP for reform. Campbell argued this might have been another reason for an immediate election, because the situation regarding reform just keeps getting worse for con.

Their other observation was that Sunak is not a good campaigner, so why go for a six week campaign? They didnt answer this, but it struck me as a good question. The obvious answer would be if he anticipated problems managing MPs should the parliament continue. The recent rumours about no confidence letters seem rather pointless at this point even to try to keep the parliament going. But such rumours now suggest a significant number of potential rebels barely controlled.

[graham]

May 23, 2024 7:55:28 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

People say that governments tend to recover some ground in a campaign? How much is that a given though? How likely is it Labour might extend their lead?

It is not actually true! Swingback has usually occurred in the period leading up to Dissolution  but the campaign period itself has tended to favour the Opposition. Against that, however, is the evidence that Megapoll leads have not generally materialised - as exemplified by what happened in 1966 - Oct 1974 - 1983 - 1997 - 2001 and 2017. Campaigns favoured the Opposition overall in 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - Feb 1974 - Oct 1974 - 1987 - 2001  - 2017.

[James E]

May 23, 2024 7:15:22 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

So, regarding this idea that Labour may not do as well as polls predict, since it requires an unprecedented swing on election day. How many on this board think that actually, there will be an unprecedented record-breaking swing to Labour on election day?

To beat the 10.5% swing which Blair got in 1997, Labour need to be 9.3% or more ahead in the popular vote.

As every single poll we have had for the past 20 months shows a Labour lead of 10% or more, it seems reasonable to expect that "unprecedented record-breaking swing".

(The last sub-10% lead was a 4% in Sept 2022 from Kantar, who now appear to be defunct/relegated)

[Deleted]

May 23, 2024 7:22:11 GMT neilj said:

Current Labour lead is 21 points with 6 weeks to go. Even if the tories reduce that lead by 2% each and every week for the next 6 weeks the lead will still be 9%. With the high likelihood of tactical voting that would still be a healthy Labour majority

It would take a reduction in the lead by 3% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a hung Parliament. Which would still most certainly result in a minority Labour Government

It would take a reduction in the lead by 4% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a tory majority and even then, not a big one

Let's please not discount the fact that Starmer may eat a bacon sandwich the wrong way.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 23, 2024 8:32:27 GMT James E said:

May 23, 2024 7:15:22 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

So, regarding this idea that Labour may not do as well as polls predict, since it requires an unprecedented swing on election day. How many on this board think that actually, there will be an unprecedented record-breaking swing to Labour on election day?

To beat the 10.5% swing which Blair got in 1997, Labour need to be 9.3% or more ahead in the popular vote.

As every single poll we have had for the past 20 months shows a Labour lead of 10% or more, it seems reasonable to expect that "unprecedented record-breaking swing".

(The last sub-10% lead was a 4% in Sept 2022 from Kantar, who now appear to be defunct/relegated)

Labour victory certainly a real possibility on current polling. What would threaten it is - polling being significantly out/significant Tory recovery in the campaign - though how likely is that? (Alongside the possibility of Tories having an unexpectedly good campaign there is also the possibility of Labour having a bit of a mare in the campaign for unexpected reasons, though some days I feel like Starmer could announce the death of the first-born and still win)

(2017 saw quite a steep improvement in Labour polling in the campaign, but they were in opposition. How often does that happen for the party in power? Does anyone have the stats on gvmnt. campaign recoveries?)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 23, 2024 8:54:58 GMT @sotonsaint said:

May 23, 2024 7:22:11 GMT neilj said:

Current Labour lead is 21 points with 6 weeks to go. Even if the tories reduce that lead by 2% each and every week for the next 6 weeks the lead will still be 9%. With the high likelihood of tactical voting that would still be a healthy Labour majority

It would take a reduction in the lead by 3% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a hung Parliament. Which would still most certainly result in a minority Labour Government

It would take a reduction in the lead by 4% each and every week for the next 6 weeks to give a tory majority and even then, not a big one

Let's please not discount the fact that Starmer may eat a bacon sandwich the wrong way.

Hopefully he will be avoiding bacon sarnies for the duration, and pubs

[crossbat11]

May 23, 2024 8:09:55 GMT neilj said:

May 23, 2024 7:57:24 GMT moby said:

Did anyone listen to the Sunak interview on R4. I thought he was charmless, defensive, rude, brow beating and full of verbal diarrhoea, driven purely by a need to get his clichés out. There was no real dialogue, listening, reflection or dialogue. In fact he was so 'over the top' in tone he seemed to be on speed.

Techy sums it up for me

Got a hunch that Sunak will prove to be a very poor campaigner.

[lululemonmustdobetter]

Oh, so I posted my prediction on the dedicated thread. Feel a little bit nervous predicting circa 200 gains for Labour - but then again Attlee managed 239 in '45. Will we get a chance to alter our predictions half-way through if desired?
So I feel I still fall prey of skittish notions that the Tories have some ace up their sleeve!

[pjw1961]

May 23, 2024 8:12:59 GMT neilj said:

Farage has bottled it and is not standing

Based on his statement, it seems his orders from Putin are that it is more important to support Trump's election.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 23, 2024 8:09:53 GMT Dave said:

May 23, 2024 7:15:22 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

So, regarding this idea that Labour may not do as well as polls predict, since it requires an unprecedented swing on election day. How many on this board think that actually, there will be an unprecedented record-breaking swing to Labour on election day?

I for one think that Carfrew.

2019 was a particularly unusual election.  The prime example, given away by Johnson when he said that they had borrowed the votes of voters in the red wall.  I think he got that right.  Many 2019 Tory voters and the ones who made the difference to the electoral maths, were voters who hadn't previously voted Tory.  This 'group' were prepared to vote for Johnson's iteration of the party on the basis of the promises regarding getting Brexit done and let's not forget, levelling up.  His was a pitch to a particular Labour voter - and one that exists in big numbers - and after all, you can't get much more socialist than truly levelling up.  

So whilst many who voted Tory in 2019 were Tory voters for that particular election, many of them were one-off Tory voters who the party could only have kept longer term had they delivered the lovely, wonderful, unproblematic Brexit that they promised, plus the levelling up so desperately required in these unequal countries of ours.  

The overall point being of course, that they were not dyed-in-the-wool decade-in-decade-out Tories.  The political journalists who push this unprecedented swing line are technically right, but should be able to understand that it's not as straight forward as that for this particular election.

I suspect this might turn out to be true in future elections as well, albeit maybe not to quite the same degree as will in 2024.  Ties have been loosened.  Those ex-Labourites who voted Tory in 2019 have done it once.  They could do it again in the future, not necessarily with the Tories though. Even if many of them vote Labour this time, their electoral umbilical chords that they severed in 2019 can not be re-grown any time soon.  The ease with which they will vote for others has increased.  Same with the Tories.  Many of the more liberal, remainer types have walked away from their party.  Not all will go back to them in '29.  Even those that do, will not be as loyal to them again as they once were.  


Tectonic plates have shifted in different directions, not all good, but not all bad either for the major parties imho.   

Indeed Dave. BJ seemed to get the point that Labour centre-left policies had polled unexpectedly well in 2017, and that despite it all, Labour were still ahead of Tories until May announced she would resign. Consequently BJ moved left and parked his tanks on Labour’s lawn with “levelling up”. 

Which had its electoral virtues, hoovering red wall votes, and Starmer is doing similar, parking his tanks on the Tory lawn. It does raise the question of how serious Johnson was about levelling up of course, and even if he was, did he know enough to do it well enough in practice?

Obviously Covid made it difficult to pursue a levelling up agenda properly, but he hadn’t ever been that shy of splashing the cash, inciuding as a mayor, and it’s said that when Sunak resigned he was like “great, now we can invest more” (though of course he never got the chance)

Which I think highlights the problem really. I don’t think there’s much evidence that he knew for himself how to go about levelling up, so if it was going to happen in any significant way, he would need to have the right people around him to do it. He managed to do that in the end with the vaccines, when he appointed Bingham. But I don’t think he ever had anyone like that for the levelling up agenda, and having Sunak as chancellor, was a bit of a disaster on that score: not only did he appoint a rival into pole position, he appointed someone not necessarily all that keen on levelling up anyway. 

Which is great news for Labour now that Sunak is in power, as it means he’s losing the Red Wall vote. Instead of parking his tanks on the Labour lawn, Sunak is letting Starmer do the tank-parking. (We could even see the labour lead increase during the campaign…)

I think you make a particularly good point about the voting segments that may now be electorally mobile, both the red wall, but also a chunk of Tories. A significant number of Tories are now in favour of nationalising utilities for example, a majority in some cases, but the Tory party have not shifted in step. (The way things are looking, the EU may have to start imposing tariffs like the Americans and then we may have to do likewise, but the Tories may still be too right wing for that. I doubt Starmer will be as squeamish about it)

[lululemonmustdobetter]

May 23, 2024 9:26:15 GMT crossbat11 said:

May 23, 2024 8:09:55 GMT neilj said:

Techy sums it up for me

Got a hunch that Sunak will prove to be a very poor campaigner.

I think it Will be interesting to see if he goes slick (Thatcher style) or tries the more traditional get out there Major/Corbyn approach. He does have cover from his fiends in the press.