steve
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Post by steve on May 22, 2024 17:24:44 GMT
"That went well don't you think?"  |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 22, 2024 17:25:48 GMT
Given all the grumbling about some of the weird and repetitive obsessions of this site, a General Election is just what we need - a month and a half of talking about other stuff. Also Paula Vennells must be grateful for the distraction - she is getting mangled at the Post Office enquiry and normally that would be the headline item. However, that is surely good news story for con, in that she is personally being blamed for government inaction to sort this a decade ago. That strikes me as a reason for going now, the final considered review may spread blame much more widely. |
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Post by jayblanc on May 22, 2024 17:31:19 GMT
Re polling, it will be interesting if the pollsters showing relatively smaller Labour leads (due to reallocation of don't knows etc) get closer to the other pollsters using more traditional methodologies As we get closer to election day this was predicted to happen, indeed there is already evidence its been happening Polls almost always bunch back up once the election is weeks away. It'll be either A) The pollsters using 'predictive' reallocation and squeezes, track back towards where the others are now. B) Both track towards a mid point between the two. C) They track to where the 'predictive' reallocation and squeezes polls say they should have been. My gut says A. Caution says B. I don't think C is likely. I think the actual result ranges somewhere between A and B, but even C won't save the Conservatives. |
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 22, 2024 17:31:42 GMT
THINGS CAN ONLY GET BETTER! They certainly can for Sunak - he's getting drenched. Nobody with umbrellas. Sad. Someone who saw it said, 'why is he covered in bird poo?' Couldnt even use the home advantage of speaking from Downing street properly. |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 22, 2024 17:34:59 GMT
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Post by moby on May 22, 2024 17:44:07 GMT
Starmer absolutely right to eschew any personal attacks on Sunak or Toryism more generally in his statement. He directed his fire at the Government and finished on what he thought both he and his party could do for the country, while conceding that the power now lay with us, the voters. He looked a better man than Sunak today. People notice these things. Millions will now tune in to politics over the next six weeks where before they were largely tuned out. Two words resonated 'Change' and 'Service' and he said 'over to you' and 'thank you' to the British people. |
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oldnat
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Extremist - Undermining the UK state and its institutions
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 17:48:12 GMT
Rather, "Pendant moi, le déluge"
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Post by moby on May 22, 2024 17:52:20 GMT
Scotland First Minister says 'the election is a chance to put Scotland first'. Yep selfish as ever!
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Post by lefthanging on May 22, 2024 18:09:48 GMT
Another weird thing about his (potential) choice of date. People will label it 'independence day' and this will gain traction. Independence from the SNP when they lose most of their seats to Labour? |
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Post by mark61 on May 22, 2024 18:13:11 GMT
A July Election does not give The SNP any time to claw back support, If labour are on course there say for an extra 25 seats that is helpful insurance should the race tighten (for some unfathomable reason) in England and Wales. I have had too many chastening election nights to get ahead of myself but it is possible to foresee a Campaign where the tide continues to ebb for the Conservatives and they go down to a defeat which greatly exceeds 1997.
I wish it was July 3rd!
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Post by graham on May 22, 2024 18:13:25 GMT
Sunak announced the election in the pouring rain while some wag was playing 'Things can only get better' in the background You've got to feel sorry for him, okay maybe not 😀 Which is why a Ministerial Broadcast would have been far more dignified - and effective. I recall that the election announcements in 1964 and 1966 were simply press releases from Downing St. That was also the case in 1970 - 1983 and 1987 when Wilson and Thatcher were seen to go to Buckingham Palace to see the Queen. On their return a statement was issued by No 10 announcing the fothcoming Dissolution - but no statement to the cameras. |
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Post by alec on May 22, 2024 18:27:17 GMT
jimjam - "Can we agree when to start a prediction thread and when to close it to stop a late entrant potentially having an advantage?" We could have a competition to predict when we'll start the prediction thread?
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Danny
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Post by Danny on May 22, 2024 18:27:40 GMT
I have said the reason for having an election at the last possible moment would be because the election is already lost, but it would allow another 6 months of parliamentary salary and nice offices in government.
But if anyone did care to try to mitigate the results, some things perhaps suggest this could be the optimum time.
Polling has systematically shown things getting worse month by month. Typically this should have reversed some time ago if it was going to, indicative it might actually never start improving for con.
Today there was a new low inflation figure, and another is expected next month. But after that it might start climbing again, which would be a very bad look going into an election.
Might squeeze out a tiny drop in interest rates, but again there isnt going to be any clear fall before an election. So the suggestion of good news might be the optimum time.
Any election going into winter may see NHS figures worsening, again another bad look. Its coming up to their best time for performance what with the summer low for for infectious diseases.
People may feel better in summery conditions rather than winter storms on election day. Hopefully start of july will be before the water restrictions begin.
IMF consider the current UK budget is already unsound and needs emergency tax rises to correct it - no chance of a giveaway autumn budget, and if they tried or even fail to fix the growing deficit, it will lead to accusations of economic incompetence. I suspect this is important, all the economic indicators are that in a few months economic indicators will be showing worse.
Going at the last minute suggests you expect disaster.
Sunak has promised lots of new ships for the navy. By autumn we might expect some concrete evidence, like boosts to armed forces budget.
Just promised new nuclear reactors to solve the global warming crisis. It won't of course, but its something to put forward as their solution. Sure, we stopped the building of cheap wind generators, but at least there would be electricity.
The conservative party is collapsing - cannot be more defections if parliament is dissolved. cannot be leadership claims or revolts in voting.
Sunak gets an outing to D day commemoration in June. Obviously wouldnt trust him not to muck it up, but it will be a chance to appeal to patriotism.
If con have a flagship policy it is Rwanda. This is likely to be a record year for boat crossings, if an election is delayed. It might be possible to get off one flight to Rwanda before the election now, but after that it seems likely there will be legal challenges both in British and foreign courts. Con's best bet is if the policy has not been seen to fail. Like almost everything government does, even if it works the Rwnada strategy will not end mass immigration to the UK, which is people invited by government to come, while the whole channel refugee thing is a consequnce of having left the EU.
Border chaos expected to get worse with bad news for trade across those borders now government has finally been forced to bring in new brexit border rules. Given the poor state of government spending, it seems highly likely omputer systems will continue to be unable to cope with the new rules.
Doubling of water bills so as to solve the mess in our water system caused by the conserative policy of privatisation...is not going to be well received as this progresses. The bankruptcy of Thames water is still expected.
In retrospect, we had a recent flutter of excitement suggesting an early july election, which was probably a leak. Or a test of reaction. Sunak has studiously promised the election would be in the second half of the year, which allows for this having been planned for some time, with a smidgeon of misdirection to try to wrong foot labour. Even from the start of the year the economic outlook was suggesting a bit of recovery before indicators looked bad again, through the year. Cameron's recall suggests this wasnt quite fully planned, but I guess exact timing couldn't be worked in without tipping their hand. Unless this was actually a reaction to something like impending internal revolt against the government. Even if Cameron had known this was to happen, he could not have cancelled his trip earlier without someone asking why.
Didnt someone say Sunak was planning to move to america? Certainly an election on Independence day should give him more freedom.
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Post by alec on May 22, 2024 18:30:31 GMT
First results are in: Hastings & Rye constituency voted two months ago. With a 9.3% swing to Labour it's the first gain of the night.
No one noticed, however.
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Post by davem on May 22, 2024 18:32:51 GMT
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neilj
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Post by neilj on May 22, 2024 18:34:02 GMT
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Post by graham on May 22, 2024 18:35:25 GMT
To correct my earlier statement, I had forgotten that in 1987 I did actually vote for a winning candidate when John Garrett won back the Norwich South seat he had lost in 1983.
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Post by leftieliberal on May 22, 2024 18:43:33 GMT
'Disastrous', 'shambolic', 'dismal' - just a few descriptions of Sunak's speech emanating from 5Live... Despite that, I can only see the Tory VI increasing from now as people are forced to make up their minds. For what it's worth, my early % prediction is LAB 40 / CON 29 / LIB 13 / REF 7 / GRN 4. Seats LAB 403 / CON 159 / LIB 47 / REF 0 / GRN 0 (+SNP 19 / PLC 4 / NI 18) I honestly think at this stage the Conservatives would be pleased with that. I think that Ed Davey would bite your hand off if you offered him 47 MPs now. I'd say that is at the upper end of our expectations. |
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Post by xanadan on May 22, 2024 18:45:21 GMT
New Icon. Here we go ! Only had 14 years to prepare though! Another weird thing about his (potential) choice of date. People will label it 'independence day' and this will gain traction. I think it is his subliminal yearning for the friendlier shores of the USA. |
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Post by leftieliberal on May 22, 2024 18:46:32 GMT
Sunak announced the election in the pouring rain while some wag was playing 'Things can only get better' in the background You've got to feel sorry for him, okay maybe not 😀 Which is why a Ministerial Broadcast would have been far more dignified - and effective. I recall that the election announcements in 1964 and 1966 were simply press releases from Downing St. That was also the case in 1970 - 1983 and 1987 when Wilson and Thatcher were seen to go to Buckingham Palace to see the Queen. On their return a statement was issued by No 10 announcing the fothcoming Dissolution - but no statement to the cameras. If I had been Sunak I would have got the Covid briefing room ready and invited the media to come inside. Starmer looked fine doing his response indoors. |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 19:03:13 GMT
A July Election does not give The SNP any time to claw back support, If labour are on course there say for an extra 25 seats that is helpful insurance should the race tighten (for some unfathomable reason) in England and Wales. I have had to many chastening election nights to get ahead of myself but it is possible to foresee a Campaign where the tide continues to ebb for the Conservatives and they go down to a defeat which greatly exceeds 1997. I wish it was July 3rd!
While I've bought a TV licence, so that I can watch the fitba, I can happily ignore all the political posturing and campaigning, on the box, over the next 6 weeks.
The state broadcaster in Scotland (partisan for the UK Union, not for any one of the UK Unionist parties) is already pushing your line of the importance of providing "insurance" for Labour "should the race tighten (for some unfathomable reason) in England and Wales". The strength of that argument may depend on whether the race in England is actually perceived by the critical group of Scots voters (SNP/Labour switchers) to be tightening, or whether a Labour victory in England is nailed on. |
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Post by lululemonmustdobetter on May 22, 2024 19:06:35 GMT
Like many, I had assumed Sunak would go for the autumn for obvious reasons. But a couple of months ago a friend of mine outlined a scenario for an earlier date. So she said bad Local Elections and more letters going in for a leadership challenge, coupled to a summer season of boats and little tangible signs of economic recovery would mean Sunak went early.
It did all look a bit panicky and shambolic. The firsts polls with fieldwork done after today will be interesting!
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Post by shevii on May 22, 2024 19:14:37 GMT
My favourite twitter funny so far:
"Calling a general election a day before the Euro 2024 quarter finals is the sign of a man who knows exactly when the England team peaks at major tournaments."
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Post by peterbell on May 22, 2024 19:20:53 GMT
Watching Sky and they are covering some Tory event which is attended by many members of the Government. What an embaressement. Started by talking about integrity and then immediately started lying about Labour's future plans. This is going to be a nasty dirty fight.
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Post by RAF on May 22, 2024 19:33:16 GMT
I'm surprised Parliament is being prerogued in just 2 days' time. There are a number of significant Bills with some steps still to go before becoming law. Most will be lost in the wash-up.
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pjw1961
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Post by pjw1961 on May 22, 2024 19:35:18 GMT
Someone asked which newspaper would be the first to use "things can only get wetter" - well the ever reliable John Crace has picked up on that: "Things can only get wetter. The humiliation. Even when Rishi Sunak is totally down on his luck, he can’t buy an even break. This was meant to be his last hurrah. The prime minister’s final act of pomp and circumstance. The lectern outside Downing Street to inform an ungrateful nation that he was calling a general election for 4 July. Only it wasn’t just raining. It was chucking it down. Soak the Rich. Soak the Rish!. Sunak was determined to front it out. To not give in and miss out on his photo op. But he looked fed up even as he appeared from the front door. Five minutes later he looked thoroughly miserable. Borderline catatonic. His suit drenched, his speech in rags. And all the while Steve Bray played Labour’s 1997 election theme song, D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, at full volume." www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/22/cringing-in-the-rain-soggy-rish-kickstarts-his-farewell-tour |
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c-a-r-f-r-e-w
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A step on the way toward the demise of the liberal elite? Or just a blip…
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Post by c-a-r-f-r-e-w on May 22, 2024 19:44:22 GMT
To be fair, shorter trousers could be useful when you’re stood in water like that... |
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 19:51:35 GMT
Someone asked which newspaper would be the first to use "things can only get wetter" - well the ever reliable John Crace has picked up on that: "Things can only get wetter. The humiliation. Even when Rishi Sunak is totally down on his luck, he can’t buy an even break. This was meant to be his last hurrah. The prime minister’s final act of pomp and circumstance. The lectern outside Downing Street to inform an ungrateful nation that he was calling a general election for 4 July. Only it wasn’t just raining. It was chucking it down. Soak the Rich. Soak the Rish!. Sunak was determined to front it out. To not give in and miss out on his photo op. But he looked fed up even as he appeared from the front door. Five minutes later he looked thoroughly miserable. Borderline catatonic. His suit drenched, his speech in rags. And all the while Steve Bray played Labour’s 1997 election theme song, D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, at full volume." www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/22/cringing-in-the-rain-soggy-rish-kickstarts-his-farewell-tour |
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Post by crossbat11 on May 22, 2024 20:05:27 GMT
As we go into this election, largely amidst cynicism about politicians and the ability for politics to change lives, and when optimism seems to be in such short supply, I am determined to be excited and enthusiastic about what might be ahead and, I hope I will be able to live through my twilight years with Labour once again writing more chapters in our national story. I refuse to believe we won't be a better country with the party in power once again. There are good people in the party who want to serve and change the country for the better. I'm not naïve enough to think that utopia is on the way, but I think we could inspire hope again and, maybe, just maybe, once in power, some transformational personalities and policies will emerge from within the cautious cocoon we see before us now.
Because politics without hope is nothing really, even if those hopes are often dashed. Maybe Heaney's evocation that history and hope will one day rhyme will never come true, but as I go into what might be one of the last few general elections of my lifetime, I don't really have a choice but to hope we might be on the cusp of something better. A better country and world to leave our children and their children too. To start to shape that world too.
Otherwise, what's the point of it all? Heaney's words will be my inspiration as I get stuck in now to try and get Starmer into Downing Street.
I enjoy electioneering anyway. It's usually ended in failure though. Maybe this could be a good one for once.
Here we go. Hoping for the best.
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oldnat
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Post by oldnat on May 22, 2024 20:09:48 GMT
crossbat11
"To tart to shape that world."
Perhaps an unfortunate typo in that paean to hope. Stormy Daniels couldn't have put it better.
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