2 May 2024 : LAB 44% / CON 26% / LDM 10% / REF 10%

[oldnat]

[JohnC]

May 8, 2024 8:01:05 GMT crossbat11 said:

One of the oft forgotten political fall outs from a disastrous round of local elections results for a party (usually the governing one), beyond the obvious ones of damaged morale, the acquisition of that pervasive and clinging feeling of losing and the loss of local power-wielding, is the further denuding of party foot-soldiers; often the unsung heroes of electioneering.

Labour became the largest party in local government, for the first time for a very long time in May 2023, and last Thursday saw that superiority on the ground become yet more entrenched. The Tories lost very nearly 500 more councillors and both Labour and the Lib Dems increased their numbers significantly.

Councillors, as anyone who has been involved in electioneering will know, are often the nucleus and key organisers of local campaigning efforts. They have almost encyclopaedic knowledge of the terrain, both its geography and inhabitants. The political nuances and peculiarities too, almost down to each household. Their prime role is representing their constituents on the council but, at election times, they become the NCOs of the ground campaign.

It would be silly to claim that only councillors make up the army of party stalwarts, activists and supporters who come out to form the campaign teams at election time, and many recently defeated Tory councillors will no doubt still remain active, but the Tories will feel the loss of the thousand or more of their councillors over the last couple of years when the general election comes around. Many of these former councillors, I suspect, will pack in politics for good. A mixture of disillusionment and apathy. They may quite like, and get quickly used to too, the resumption of a normal non-political life!

To illustrate this, look no further than my old hometown of Redditch. Where there were well over 20 Tory councillors only 13 months ago, there are now only 5. That's an awful lot of ears to the ground and local organisers gone. Replicate that attrition rate across the country, and the Tory ground machine, never in a great state of repair anyway since the Thatcherite glory days, is much weakened. Their falling and ageing membership doesn't help either.

This will matter more than a lot of people think when we all march towards the sound of gunfire in a few months time.

[pjw1961]

Since I'm fed up of being the gloomster on US polling, I will just mention that the latest poll of Wisconsin by Quinnipiac University (2-6 May) has Biden leading Trump 50-44 head to head (and more narrowly with third party candidates factored in), which breaks a run of three polls showing Trump ahead in that state.

Also a poll (Public Policy Research, 6-7 May) in Maryland has Biden +28, and while Biden leading in a blue state is in no way surprising, it is the largest lead Biden has had in that state since last September when he was also +28.

[Dave]

May 8, 2024 20:17:38 GMT mark61 said:

I think Elphicke was one Labour should have said thanks, but no thanks to.

100%.

She’s a hard right, immigrant obsessed, Johnsonite. I can see how Starmer and co would have seen the benefit in this but I’m afraid that Starmer has been played here. She’s no more Labour than Rees Mogg is. She just wants to undermine Sunak and sadly I think that for short term gain, Starmer has been suckered into her objective

As ever, Kinnock has a way with words. He said it’s a broad church but even a church has walls. Whether this embarrasses Sunak and co or not, she should not have been admitted to the Labour Party. End of.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Public doesn’t buy Sunak’s claim UK heading for hung parliament
Telegraph-Savanta poll shows only 16pc believe this will be the most likely outcome of the general election


“Rishi Sunak’s claim that the local election results suggest the country is heading for a hung parliament is not shared by the British public, according to an opinion poll.

Just 16 per cent of respondents to the survey, conducted in the three days after Thursday’s local elections, said that the most likely outcome of the general election was a hung parliament.

The figure is barely higher among Conservative voters, with only 18 per cent agreeing with that position. Instead, half of Tory voters think Labour will have a House of Commons majority.

The findings shine a light on the challenges the Prime Minister and his team face as they try to seize on elements of good news from the string of Tory defeats in the local elections.

The latest Telegraph-Savanta poll shows Labour is far ahead on 43 per cent with the Tories on 27 per cent, giving Sir Keir Starmer’s party a 16 percentage point lead.

The Liberal Democrats were found to be on 11 per cent of the vote, Reform on 9 per cent and the Greens on three per cent. More than 2,000 people were surveyed from Friday to Sunday.”

Attachments:

[JohnC]

May 8, 2024 8:52:15 GMT leftieliberal said:

May 7, 2024 20:39:08 GMT graham said:

The fact is that events do evoke memories of the Nazis and make it reasonable for people of insight to draw parallels. That was true of what occurred in the Bosnian war of the 1990s - well illustrated by the ethnic cleansing we saw at Sebrenica and elsewhere.  That same ethnic cleansing is to be seen today in Gaza - and I find it surprising that so many appear so blind to the parallels which are there to see - whilst at the same time being so willing to bow to the standards  of humbug and hypocrisy imposed by others - including the Western Establishment. Some of us may be keener than others to learn from the dark historical lessons of the Holocaust.

Graham has a point, although he doesn't usually make his points very well and is too inclined to go over the top.
The treatment of The Holocaust as something completely exceptional in history, rather than just as the worst example of something that repeatedly happened during the 20th Century and is still happening today (e.g. Myanmar) downgrades other examples. Graham quotes the Bosnian war, and I would add to that the genocide of the Armenians by the Ottoman Turks during World War 1.

My own belief is that part of the reason for emphasising The Holocaust as exceptional is Western liberal guilt. During those years before World War 2, countries all over the world, particularly the USA and UK were refusing to accept Jewish immigrants from Germany. Whilst we pride ourselves on the Kindertransport, we forget that all those children had parents who sent their children to somewhere they hoped would be safe, knowing that they were likely never to see them again. It's easy to forget how common anti-semitism was in this country before World War 2; just think of the number of supporters that Oswald Moseley had, or the aristocrats like the Mitfords. Moseley, before he founded the British Union of Fascists, was a Labour MP, having fallen out with the Conservatives over Ireland and the actions of the Black and Tans and crossed the floor.

Rather belatedly, I would like to add that, in addition to the Kindertransport, many adult Jews did reach the UK in the months leading up to the outbreak of war. My sister's partner's late father was one. He was transported from Vienna to Dachau after Kristallnacht but whilst in the camp obtained a UK visa (100 arrived one day and he managed to get one in a ballot). Admittedly he was supposed to only transit the UK but once he and other refugees arrived in Kent this seems to have been overlooked by the authorities. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Just to highlight: 23% of Tory voters think there will be a Tory majority. And 9% of Labour voters. 

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

‘The era of cheap food is over,’ says Waitrose chief
Ahead of the supermarket’s switch to nature-friendly regenerative agriculture, James Bailey reveals why we need to rethink our food supply

“Globally, agriculture is responsible for around 20 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, and is the biggest driver of biodiversity loss. We all need to eat, but with climate change undermining our ability to produce food, is there a better way?

James Bailey, the affable executive director of Waitrose, thinks so. “I don’t think it’s widely understood the impact that the food system has on climate,” he tells me. “On a big, philosophical level, it affects everyone.”

…

“I think we’re seeing the end of the era of cheap food, because of the impact of that cheap food – not just on people’s health but the external impact, the environmental impact, the societal impact of that cheap food. We need to witness the end of cheap food and a reversal of the value of the food people are eating.””

[Deleted]

May 8, 2024 20:32:16 GMT Dave said:

May 8, 2024 20:17:38 GMT mark61 said:

I think Elphicke was one Labour should have said thanks, but no thanks to.

100%.

She’s a hard right, immigrant obsessed, Johnsonite. I can see how Starmer and co would have seen the benefit in this but I’m afraid that Starmer has been played here. She’s no more Labour than Rees Mogg is. She just wants to undermine Sunak and sadly I think that for short term gain, Starmer has been suckered into her objective

As ever, Kinnock has a way with words. He said it’s a broad church but even a church has walls. Whether this embarrasses Sunak and co or not, she should not have been admitted to the Labour Party. End of.

Was Shaun Woodward 'Labour'?

At least she's standing down. The headline is all that matters here, not the detail. As I and a few others said on here not so long ago, if playing a bit 'dirty' sweeps Labour into power, fine.

I'm not Trev by the way. I'm using quotation marks for a reason.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

“If food production becomes much less stable, you’re going to see prices going up anyway, but for the wrong reasons,” he says. “There will be tipping points where if you want tomatoes or lettuces in certain seasons, they’re going to cost more even coming from the UK. Because the farmers who produce them are now dealing with energy costs up to here, or the uncertainty of flooding, or risks that didn’t exist five to 10 years ago.”

Climate change, he says, will impact “the quality of the food, the availability of the food, and the price of the food”.

He points to this winter’s floods, which have stopped some farmers drilling their crops yet this year and will “inevitably” push up prices and potentially cause shortages on supermarket shelves.“

[Deleted]

May 8, 2024 20:49:36 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

‘The era of cheap food is over,’ says Waitrose chief

I lived in Spain for a while just before we left the EU and was always irked by how expensive food seemed to be in supermarkets there compared to here. I think prices may be comparable now, but it was always strange to buy a small punnet of Spanish tomatoes for €1.50 in Spain when the same thing would cost 60p here.

[leftieliberal]

May 8, 2024 16:23:02 GMT pjw1961 said:

Good to see the PLP has room for Kate Osamor as well as Natalie Elphicke. Hopefully, Diane Abbott next.

www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/08/kate-osamor-labour-whip-gaza-genocide

I liked John McDonnell's comment to LBC (as reported in the i newspaper)

One of the remaining flagbearers of the Labour left, John McDonnell, summed it up when he told LBC: "I'm a great believer in the power of conversion but even this one would strain the generosity of spirit of John the Baptist, quite honestly."

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

Here’s some survey data from the Telegraph on phone habits:

“At the same time, even if a company did actually ring you up, a large section of society would instantly decline the call. Research published this week by Uswitch found that a quarter of 18 to 34-year-olds have never answered their phone. Ever. Almost 70 per cent said they preferred to deal with things by text, and it’s leading to a conversational crisis: a study conducted by Ofcom suggested that a quarter of mobile phone users make fewer than five phone calls a month.”

[alec]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w - cheap food: I always say this when anyone talks about the future of food, but roughly half the western population is obese and around a quarter of the food produced is discarded in the UK, likely similar elsewhere. Although obesity isn't as simple as eating too much, it's a truism that far too many people eat too much and we discard a shameful quantity of food.

So before we even start to think about depopulating, we have some very substantial solutions already available to us, if we started to actually look at the sensible solutions, instead of being too frightened to upset business to do anything.

[oldnat]

May 8, 2024 20:56:11 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

“If food production becomes much less stable, you’re going to see prices going up anyway, but for the wrong reasons,” he says. “There will be tipping points where if you want tomatoes or lettuces in certain seasons, they’re going to cost more even coming from the UK. Because the farmers who produce them are now dealing with energy costs up to here, or the uncertainty of flooding, or risks that didn’t exist five to 10 years ago.”

Climate change, he says, will impact “the quality of the food, the availability of the food, and the price of the food”.

He points to this winter’s floods, which have stopped some farmers drilling their crops yet this year and will “inevitably” push up prices and potentially cause shortages on supermarket shelves.“

Isn't it a rather crazy idea that people should not only be able to buy foods, that aren't in season where they live, but should be able to buy them cheaply all year round?

That concept is one that is generated by the sense of entitlement created among people in wealthy countries - by those who make themselves even wealthier by doing so!.

[alec]

c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "Here’s some survey data from the Telegraph on phone habits:."

Surely some mistake? I thought the Telegraph blamed lockdowns and Jeremy Corbyn for everything? It can't now be the fault of texting, can it?

It's behind a paywall so I can't read it in full, but perhaps they go on to say Jeremy Corbyn invented texting during covid lockdowns? Could that be the problem?

[oldnat]

Seven Welcomes?

[crossbat11]

May 8, 2024 20:53:31 GMT @sotonsaint said:

May 8, 2024 20:32:16 GMT Dave said:

100%.

She’s a hard right, immigrant obsessed, Johnsonite. I can see how Starmer and co would have seen the benefit in this but I’m afraid that Starmer has been played here. She’s no more Labour than Rees Mogg is. She just wants to undermine Sunak and sadly I think that for short term gain, Starmer has been suckered into her objective

As ever, Kinnock has a way with words. He said it’s a broad church but even a church has walls. Whether this embarrasses Sunak and co or not, she should not have been admitted to the Labour Party. End of.

Was Shaun Woodward 'Labour'?

At least she's standing down. The headline is all that matters here, not the detail. As I and a few others said on here not so long ago, if playing a bit 'dirty' sweeps Labour into power, fine.

I'm not Trev by the way. I'm using quotation marks for a reason.

The Great Gorby, Owen Jones, has just blown another gasket about Elphicke's defection.

Which suggests to me that Starmer might be on to something here.

[oldnat]

May 8, 2024 21:20:23 GMT crossbat11 said:

May 8, 2024 20:53:31 GMT @sotonsaint said:

Was Shaun Woodward 'Labour'?

At least she's standing down. The headline is all that matters here, not the detail. As I and a few others said on here not so long ago, if playing a bit 'dirty' sweeps Labour into power, fine.

I'm not Trev by the way. I'm using quotation marks for a reason.

The Great Gorby, Owen Jones, has just blown another gasket about Elphicke's defection.

Which suggests to me that Starmer might be on to something here.

There is an intrusive "to" in your last sentence.

[crossbat11]

Will Elphicke be "bricked" by irate Tory supporters in Dover, I wonder?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/13/lisa-cameron-snp-mp-who-defected-to-tories-forced-into-hiding

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 8, 2024 21:06:01 GMT oldnat said:

May 8, 2024 20:56:11 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

“If food production becomes much less stable, you’re going to see prices going up anyway, but for the wrong reasons,” he says. “There will be tipping points where if you want tomatoes or lettuces in certain seasons, they’re going to cost more even coming from the UK. Because the farmers who produce them are now dealing with energy costs up to here, or the uncertainty of flooding, or risks that didn’t exist five to 10 years ago.”

Climate change, he says, will impact “the quality of the food, the availability of the food, and the price of the food”.

He points to this winter’s floods, which have stopped some farmers drilling their crops yet this year and will “inevitably” push up prices and potentially cause shortages on supermarket shelves.“

Isn't it a rather crazy idea that people should not only be able to buy foods, that aren't in season where they live, but should be able to buy them cheaply all year round?

That concept is one that is generated by the sense of entitlement created among people in wealthy countries - by those who make themselves even wealthier by doing so!.

Do you think it’s possible to live without year-round access to smashed avocado??

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 8, 2024 21:08:18 GMT alec said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w - "Here’s some survey data from the Telegraph on phone habits:."

Surely some mistake? I thought the Telegraph blamed lockdowns and Jeremy Corbyn for everything? It can't now be the fault of texting, can it?

It's behind a paywall so I can't read it in full, but perhaps they go on to say Jeremy Corbyn invented texting during covid lockdowns? Could that be the problem?

I think it mentioned that he invented it but curiously it was just before the pandemic, in Hastings, in 2019…

they also say: “However, a recent – although perhaps not scientific – piece of research conducted by the restaurant chain Prezzo found that Gen Z (those currently aged between 12 and 27) suffer from “menu anxiety” and are too socially nervous to strike up a conversation with a waiter in the first place.” (though not sure if that’s down to Corby too…)

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 8, 2024 20:17:38 GMT mark61 said:

On a more worrying note I wonder whether this coming GE will be the last not heavily influenced by AI fakery, I think a Royal Commission or something similar looking at this issue should be apriority for the incoming Govt.

Hopefully it’s not a fake commission 🤯🤞

[oldnat]

May 8, 2024 21:27:13 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

May 8, 2024 21:06:01 GMT oldnat said:

Isn't it a rather crazy idea that people should not only be able to buy foods, that aren't in season where they live, but should be able to buy them cheaply all year round?

That concept is one that is generated by the sense of entitlement created among people in wealthy countries - by those who make themselves even wealthier by doing so!.

Do you think it’s possible to live without year-round access to smashed avocado??

Of course it isn't necessary to do without such an essential product. Just buy it in season (smash them yourself, if so inclined) and freeze it.

Of course, you will need a freezer, and the electricity to run it, but that shouldn't be a problem in those areas which produce little electricity, and import it from elsewhere - after setting the transmission costs to that area's advantage.

[Dave]

May 8, 2024 21:20:23 GMT crossbat11 said:

May 8, 2024 20:53:31 GMT @sotonsaint said:

Was Shaun Woodward 'Labour'?

At least she's standing down. The headline is all that matters here, not the detail. As I and a few others said on here not so long ago, if playing a bit 'dirty' sweeps Labour into power, fine.

I'm not Trev by the way. I'm using quotation marks for a reason.

The Great Gorby, Owen Jones, has just blown another gasket about Elphicke's defection.

Which suggests to me that Starmer might be on to something here.

That doesn’t wash for me. To me it makes me wonder just how sure he would have to be in himself and in Labour’s prospects of victory that he felt able to not admit the likes of her to Labour just to get one over Sunak and for chess-like positioning.

Be honest, if someone had told you yesterday that Elphicke would be a Labour MP today, on a scale of one to ten, how chuffed would you have been?

As we know, much like Owen Jones or the likes of Graham or the SNP supporters on here, for some, anything Starmer does will be greeted with derision as a reflex. But you really don’t have to be Owen Jones to think that Starmer has unnecessarily (and that’s the key point) pulled a crappy one here.

[Deleted]

May 8, 2024 21:20:23 GMT crossbat11 said:

The Great Gorby, Owen Jones, has just blown another gasket about Elphicke's defection.

Which suggests to me that Starmer might be on to something here.

Votes will follow. It's almost like it's a game...

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 8, 2024 21:05:15 GMT alec said:

c-a-r-f-r-e-w - cheap food: I always say this when anyone talks about the future of food, but roughly half the western population is obese and around a quarter of the food produced is discarded in the UK, likely similar elsewhere. Although obesity isn't as simple as eating too much, it's a truism that far too many people eat too much and we discard a shameful quantity of food.

So before we even start to think about depopulating, we have some very substantial solutions already available to us, if we started to actually look at the sensible solutions, instead of being too frightened to upset business to do anything.

another consideration is something I read recently, that modern farming methods mean food is becoming less nutritious 

[mercian]

May 8, 2024 20:17:38 GMT mark61 said:

On a more worrying note I wonder whether this coming GE will be the last not heavily influenced by AI fakery, I think a Royal Commission or something similar looking at this issue should be apriority for the incoming Govt.

Even worse, it could be the first to be.

[c-a-r-f-r-e-w]

May 8, 2024 21:39:12 GMT oldnat said:

May 8, 2024 21:27:13 GMT c-a-r-f-r-e-w said:

Do you think it’s possible to live without year-round access to smashed avocado??

Of course it isn't necessary to do without such an essential product. Just buy it in season (smash them yourself, if so inclined) and freeze it.

Of course, you will need a freezer, and the electricity to run it, but that shouldn't be a problem in those areas which produce little electricity, and import it from elsewhere - after setting the transmission costs to that area's advantage.

Well I have quite a handy fridge-freezer, but I got told off on here for spending nearly a grand on it, and for talking about domestic tech (But it turned out later they thought talking about Dysons is ok. Hard to keep up with it all. Still, I’m over it now 😬)

[Deleted]

May 8, 2024 14:42:50 GMT crossbat11 said:

May 8, 2024 14:41:09 GMT leftieliberal said:

Alleged dirty work by an Independent candidate in the West Midlands Mayoral election
Viral hate campaign against Dudley teacher after fake racist video shared
It seems that the video has been digitally manipulated. If this is the case, then I hope he is prosecuted and struck off.

The AI nightmare begins to unfold.

It was faked - not AI. They faked the subtitles. Absolutely illegal and I hope the guy's done for it.